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FuturesTrader's Journal - Trading ES with Market Profile
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FuturesTrader's Journal - Trading ES with Market Profile

  #101 (permalink)
Elite Member
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KJAVED View Post
Sound good, but if current period "K" get below "J" period, than its hard to get price 90.75. So in current scenario, "K" period very important. Further market successfully tested Breakdown point of 24/7,......this just small addition to your comments

90.75 short is likely taken away.. I am now looking for a break of the possible inside bar (K period) in either direction. If K does look below J, it would be the first time that one timeframing up has stopped since B period Low was made. Is is possible that it would be nothing more than inventory adjustment before it rotates up higher.

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  #102 (permalink)
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Late buyers are buying 1t above K period lows. I am looking to short IF they don't get much lift from here.

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  #103 (permalink)
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I didn't see much bounce so I have shorted 85.75, lets see how this goes.

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  #104 (permalink)
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I need to see quick liquidation and follow thru, else I will exit this quickly.

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  #105 (permalink)
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that didn't last long. Out -6 there was no follow thru to the down side.

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  #106 (permalink)
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futurestrader View Post
that didn't last long. Out -6 there was no follow thru to the down side.

Good try............by the time you make decision for entry, the POC shifts higher in late of day, that most times signals to continuation on same or next day. Uptill very week response,

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  #107 (permalink)
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Process vs Results

Attachment with Results vs Process:
My focus this month was supposed to be on Process and not worry about results. I wanted to learn the art of collecting data based on market generated information, analyze it and turn it into trades and once I am in a trade monitor for continuation. I realized today that over the last few days I became attached to the results and my focus shifted away from the process. I am making a note of this so I can bring my focus back on what is truly important.

Below is a copy paste from my premarket analysis - "We have a very prominent POC at 2061.75 and unless the move away from POC is accompanied with volume price si likely to snap back to POC. Opening above today's range will likely cause short covering rally and target the anomalies left behind on the structure above over the last few days"

Market played out as I had expected and the BCDE anomaly from 7/24 at 2088.50 was cleaned up. I had a good read and imagination but the trade results don't reflect that.

Recap:
ES gapped higher with a small gap. Overnight inventory was long and it was immediately corrected. Re-entering yesterday's range triggered a short at yesterday high, destination of the trade was Prominent POC at 2061.75(I was away). Destination was reached in B period.

After AB periods it seems market was one timeframing lower. I shorted AB when AB formed a poor low since we had back to back poor lows but there was no follow through after POC was tested. When C period opened profile became 3 wide, however Value was overlapping to higher. The odds of market going lower were very low. Also market struggled a lot trying to get to overnight low. When it struggles so much to take out a reference the move in that direction is usually limited. We also had a good low. 2063 was a very good trade location for a long (I was away from my desk again :-()

I attempted a long to at 2064.5 trying to lean on yesterday's settle but after I didn't get filled I decided not to chase it.

The information that I had carried over from earlier in the day was - B period was sold 1 tick below yesterday's high and overnight inventory was adjusted. It was likely that stops were accumulated above yesterday's high at 2069.50.

When C period reached 2069.50 I took a long with an anticipation of the stop run. The trade was not wrong unless price can back inside yesterdays range again, however I focused on the struggle at open and closed the trade to take a small gain. The I watched the market shoot higher and didnot take any of the longs that were triggering:
- ONHi was support in G period
- Rally high from 7/24 was support in H period
Stops for both the trades above were very tight but I had become very risk averse.

Finally I attempted 2 shorts late in the evening and lost some more. I waited for confirmation before entering these trade and I was wrong.

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  #108 (permalink)
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Premarket 07-29-2015

Yesterday was a trend day up, NYSE volume was 4.07B which was higher but not a lot give the trend day. The profile was thin and stretched out, several anomalies and multiple distributions were left behind. There was evidence of Lot of mechanical buying. As of now I don't see signs of new/strong buyers and yesterdays move was likely short covering.

2084.75 is afternoon Pullback Low. Change occurs below this level.

Overnight inventory is Long but there was some adjustment in the last hour. ONH = 2093.75, ONL = 2084.50

Today is FOMC and market could just balance before the announcement.

Acceptance above yesterday's PB Low targets 2100 level and all time high's will be in sight again.
Acceptance below PB Low will likely repair the anomalies that were left behind yesterday.

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  #109 (permalink)
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Yesterday I tried to let go of attachment to results but ended up suffering from a heavy downside bias. I tried to plug in one leak and another one started started pouring out.

My premarket expectations were simple - "Acceptance above yesterday's PB Low targets 2100 level and all time high's will be in sight again. Acceptance below PB Low will likely repair the anomalies that were left behind yesterday."
Reading the market without a bias would have clearly shown to me that once ABC periods became 3 wide above yesterday's high, value was clearly higher and there was NO CHANGE in the market condition, all auctions were to the upside.
The best setup would be long when D period attempted to test the double distribution left behind in C period, but I blatantly ignored it and tried to predict that the distribution will be filled and market WILL go lower. Trying to force my opinion on the market came with a price of losing day.

Recap:
A period opened at the edge of yesterdays high and price went back and forth through open indicating that it was best to let the market shake out and wait patiently for a trade to setup. There was some liquidation after test of single prints from 7/24 (2091 area) but A period couldn't even reach the pullback low at 84.75.
Settle held in B period = mechanical
B period high held in D period
F low held in G period
H and I periods balanced before FOMC
J period liquidation after FOMC corrected some of these mechanical trading inventory imbalances.
K tested H and I period highs
M period tested EF high's

POC is at 2097 with lot of the late afternoon trading above POC. this is a sign of late buyers.

Overall market one timeframed higher in ABCDE periods, balanced in FGHI, inventory corrected in J period, and uptrend resumed in K and L periods.

J period low at 2091.25 is the afternoon pullback low. Change in sentiment occurs below this level.

Outlook for today:
As of 8:05 am CST Es will open below the middle of yesterday's range. Unless there is directional conviction, it is important to let the market shake out. Acceptance below the PB low targets yesterday's low followed by the ledge/pblow from 7/28 at 2084.75. Further acceptance below this level is likely to trigger a much heavier liquidation. Acceptance above PB Low will likely result in a choppy balanced market till yesterday's high's are cleared. Above it all time highs are in sight.

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  #110 (permalink)
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Overnight inventory is very short. Expectation is that the inventory will get corrected, if this does not happen it will indicate weakness in the market.

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