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FuturesTrader's Journal - Trading ES with Market Profile
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FuturesTrader's Journal - Trading ES with Market Profile

  #91 (permalink)
Elite Member
milpitas, ca, usa
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: Tradestation, Ameritrade
Favorite Futures: ES, Gold, 10 Yr
 
rahulgopi's Avatar
 
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futurestrader View Post
An area I need to improve on - I tend to act quickly on information that needs to be carried forward. E period forming an anomaly was just 1 data point that needs to be carried forward, it does not mean short was over. I place too much importance on new market generate information and I lose my perspective of monitoring the trade for continuation. C,D,E were one timeframing lower, and I was simply shaken out from my short.

This is a cognitive bias, highlighting the last few candles / TPO's as the only information relevant to make a decision. What could potentially help is asking / framing the right question, for e.g , what does this mean to the over all context ? what is the probable direction market could take from here ? These are difficult questions that will require deliberate thinking.
Usually the one get asked most of the time under uncertainty is something like, is this bad ??

I use such discomforts ( various fears ) as a cue to stay objective and evaluate the market context. Treat these discomforts , body sensations , feelings etc as your friend , it is body's way to let you know that it is time to have another read of the market context.

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  #92 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
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Results from 7/22/15

Below are the trade results from Wednesday 7/22. It was a balance day and I misread it. All my trades were in the middle of the profile.

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  #93 (permalink)
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Houston, TX
 
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07/23/2-15 Results


I posted my trades and logic actively today. I was busy today and did not get a chance to write recap. Below are the trade results

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  #94 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
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I am not trading today.

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  #95 (permalink)
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Houston, TX
 
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Morning Prep

Es is back in the middle of a large 100 point trading range from 2023 to 2126. Both high and lkow have been tested multip ple times.

Monthly bar chart:
We are in 5 month balance

Weekly bar chart:
Same story, in middle of trading range. We have started to one timeframe lower on weekly

Daily bar chart:
Same story - in middle of trading range. We are one timeframing lower on dailyfor 4 days

Daily Profile:
Friday one timeframed lower all day with inventory adjustment in the last period. High of N period ar 2079 is the rally high. Change occurs above this level.

While we are onetimeframing lower NYSE volume is below 4 billion since last few days and does not show presence of new money or longer timeframe involvement. We also have poor high and anomalies left above

Overnight inventory is short, ONH is 2080.75. As of 8:27 am CST we will gap down and open around 2063. Gap rules are in play.
Be alert if gap gets filled and price enters friday's range.

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  #96 (permalink)
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Trade 1

Took long below ONL with expectation of inventory adjustment. Lost 5t on the trade

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  #97 (permalink)
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Recap and Preparation 07-28-2015

My Weakness: When market is in balance my trading becomes imbalanced. Also at times I lack the imagination of what the market is likely to do.

ES gapped down today. Overnight inventory was short and expectation was that inventory will be corrected, however sellers piled on in the first 30 minutes. NYSE volume was 491k - way over the normal 350-380k. These sellers did not succeed in pushing the market lower and inventory corrected in B and C period. A,B,C one timeframed higher. This is where I failed today. A,B,C period formed a 3 wide profile near 2063 area. Value was clearly lower and instead of letting value be my guide I let my bias shift to the long side.

Gap rules suggest that if Gap is filled but the value is lower then late selloff is possible. Keeping this in mind I should have been prepared for an opportunity to sell. I was not around when C period attempted to fill the gap. I am carrying forward this information since it was sign of weak seller.

D period stopped one timeframing but I was still focussed on long side. I took two longs in D First was betting on one double distribution to hold and 2nd was betting timeframing to not stop. Both trades failed however 2nd trade did have 3+ point MFE.

My biggest failure in imagination was after E period went two ticks below D. I saw market was coming into balance but what I failed to see was that C,D,E were one timeframing lower after failed Gap fill attempt. After this F failed 1 tick below E high - this was a classic short at 2065 that I was not aware of till way later.

EF periods were balanced and I took a breakout short in G period that failed to follow through on downside.

Another mechanical selloff followed below F high in J period. M period tested A lows and formed a poor low. This poor low was formed from market being too short and late sellers were selling below prominent POC. Failure to take out the lows cause a short covering rally.

Outlook for tomorrow:
NYSE volume was lower than yesterday despite high volume in first period. This indicated day trading money only. We have a very prominent POC at 2061.75 and unless the move away from POC is accompanied with volume price si likely to snap back to POC. Opening above today's range will likely cause short covering rally and target the anomalies left behind on the structure above over the last few days.

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  #98 (permalink)
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Boulder, CO
 
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kudos to you on also sharing your bad days. I personally know how hard it can be to share when you made a mistake or felt lost during the day so I appreciate your last post that much more.
all I can say is that on days like yesterday (balancing days) you want to be a like a big league pitcher i.e. paint the edges and corners and initiate your trades there.
i know that is easier said than done because I did not do great either

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  #99 (permalink)
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Frustrating day today. I had a very good read of the market and the imagination of what was possible however I missed out on some trades due to distractions and didn't hold on to the late long that I took.

As of 1:28 CST I am seeing evidence that sellers are starting to accumulate. Volume is starting to build in 87.50 to 88.50 area. I will short 2090.75 which is upper distribution on 7/24 if it reaches there.

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  #100 (permalink)
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Toronto Canada
 
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futurestrader View Post
Frustrating day today. I had a very good read of the market and the imagination of what was possible however I missed out on some trades due to distractions and didn't hold on to the late long that I took.

As of 1:28 CST I am seeing evidence that sellers are starting to accumulate. Volume is starting to build in 87.50 to 88.50 area. I will short 2090.75 which is upper distribution on 7/24 if it reaches there.

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Sound good, but if current period "K" get below "J" period, than its hard to get price 90.75. So in current scenario, "K" period very important. Further market successfully tested Breakdown point of 24/7,......this just small addition to your comments

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