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Three Trades a Day
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Created: by harry737 Attachments:100

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Three Trades a Day

  #51 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

Capital Controls are being threatened EU tells Greeks to prepare for 'state of emergency' as talks collapse - Telegraph
Read this, think the general feeling is Greek Exit, even if by some minor miracle they do agree, what does that say about Europe's ECB,...weak. So probably it now seems the best outcome overall.
BUT how much of an effect it has on the peripheral bonds, will be the telling factor. Initial reaction, then stability??
Anyways Stox is being sold off very slowly and on low volume, languid longs, like the sinking of the Titanic and the band played on.
ZEW out this morning.
Bonds are Rallying Stox are being sold off, hopefully can get short from a decent level 3433, everything looks quiet bearish.

First Trade bought 3415, old NIB(negative imbalance level) not very confident with this, all though holding at the moment

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  #52 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

Market is now showing resilience to the whole Greek Tragedy and shrugging off the likely defaulting of the "Greeks"
There is a gap that was left on Monday which is 3602 and the bounces from the lows yesterday, did little to encourage sellers, that there is any panic in longs. So he we are looking north, short term there is still 3568 and 3573, clearing these leaves the gap plainly in the bulls sights

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Three Trades a Day-eminibulls.png   Three Trades a Day-stoxbulls.png  
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  #53 (permalink)
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First Trade


went long got trades on side but scratched, small loss was a bit unlucky long at 3552 saw it up to 3570 sold 3556.

Now this market has rejected this area now on the 60 min and unless it manouvere its way later on in the day at the moment this market realistically is not going to close the gap at 3602, in the am session, but as I am typing its ticking back up after making a low at 3437,

Second Trade

going to sit back as there is a likely hood it could range for awhile 3440-3460
EMini still rallying, Unirenko is pointing down PAS is Up
bought 3437 sold 3452 sold 3464 bought 3555,
started to think to get long around this area because of the buy move upwards so bought 3554 and sold 3552, illustration below


Last edited by harry737; June 17th, 2015 at 07:47 AM.
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  #54 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

market called considerably lower, Italian MIB 180 ticks, but opened just off lows Stox and as I write Stox has jumped 16 ticks higher, glad I exited my short at 3400 for a scratch, too many people able to get short at the same price. commentary overnight from the FOMC was quiet doveish and this should buoy the market.
Bit gutted should of gone long Stox, market is choppy the rally up to 3460 then collapse to 3397 yesterday pm session very confusing, adding to Draghi's statement volatility is here to stay,
FOMC
After the 2PM statement was released the market focused on the fact that 7 of the 17 participants saw one or less hikes for 2015 vs only 3 members in that camp at the March meeting. This larger than expected drift downwards in 2015 Fed Funds projections led to a massive short covering rally in the front-end of the curve with EDU5 rallying 7bps off its lows and 2y notes rallying almost 9bps off its intraday lows.
Economy expanding moderately with job growth picking up (note vs. slowed during winter months); Growth in HH spending moderate; Housing shows some improvement; Biz fixed investment remained soft -Other SEPs (2015 GDP d/graded as expected, else little substantial changes to unemployment & inflation outlook): ’15 GDP growth seen at 1.8%-2% (vs. 2.3%-2.7% prior);
So might be rally in bonds, Stox might be slightly more less directional

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  #55 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

Greece still front and centre, but hopefully coming to a conclusion, at least a resolution for now, fun will start all over again, next year or the year after.
Quiet a lot of block buying in the Eurostox, and we have closed below most of the volume, so thinking we might have a run lower, (unless we gap open again) even to build momentum from lower down and break new highs. As the longs in these markets have deeper pockets than the bears.
So levels 3629 is pivotal, First sell area 3637-3640, if market weakens below 3629 them 3627 should be good resistance
Support below 3599-3594

Still looking for the same setups as posted in early illustrations
Pas Vol

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  #56 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

Greece the deal is off

So a sell above 3570 would be nice but called 20 Lower the Stox on open, Sell area is 3567-3570



Support

3553(might be risky), 3538(little better), last is support area 3526-33(should hold first time), there is a low volume area 3526-3505, generally do not trade th

there is also a gap 3454, but seems like an awful waste of money,

unbelievable opened up sold 3593

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  #57 (permalink)
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Second Trade

Market is fatigued randomly moving, reacting to the latest news, wish I had covered my shorts off the low 3574, and spent my time doing something more productive, for the rest of the day.
Still looking to sell rally s especially now with have double topped

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  #58 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

head n shoulders broken already as i was trying to post and missed this trade, but I am 3450 bid and shorted at 3459 on a level already decided, illustration below

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Three Trades a Day-stoxheadns.png  
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