Nearly every first day of the trading month, starts with buyers in the market (Ftse, Dax, Stox), so the call on the open was up. Positive sentiment coming from Asia. Leaving a overnight gap at 3570
There is still no real positive news from Greece, which is seen as bad news now. Rather than "no news is good news".
So the high open would be an opportunity to sell
Sold 3589 bought 3579 avge, this trade I took on the open, 3589 was also positive imbalance from Friday, the next level after that is 2603, and the stox to open up 22 ticks was a lot, for no apparent reason, especially before the cash open.
Looking at the trading from Friday, the market once it did hold below 3600, sellers did come back into the market, 3563-3588, on the cash close (4:30GMT) there was some heavy volume, so below 3560 buyers would be losing there grip on this market
Interested in buying 3558, depending on momentum, also looking for the buying to run out.
Levels resistance 3599, 3603, 3610
Support 3558, 3564, will be watching to see how they react from them, normally the market has two goes at a level
Last edited by harry737; June 1st, 2015 at 03:49 AM.
Following previous analysis, looking to sell a lower high as shown in illustration
Second trade was to go long at 3558 sell half at 3563 and rest at 3570, unfortunately could not get short into this area and so therefore was a little tentative of buying this level, because the accumulating negative delta was high by the time it reached this level and this sometimes is a reason for me not to trade( like standing in front of a runaway train), but as it was it tested the level twice and traded up to 3573 which would of been the target.
Bulls looking a little less confident, from last week
Last edited by harry737; June 1st, 2015 at 05:12 AM.
Looking for a LH to sell, also some positive imbalance to position my trade, which I found at 3560, also from previous analysis, I thought the market below here leaves the bulls vulnerable, to further lows...3510/16
Sold 3560 Bought 3565, a quick move on low volume stopped me out, but breaking one of my main rules....resold 3565 and bought 3555/3558, not very happy with myself, should of took punishment for bad trade placement at 3560,
Finished for the day
Lost Discipline, must not happen again, this is a long term plan, to build slowly, to focus on the things I do correctly and incorrectly, to focus on what works and doesnt.
Trading less, will understand thought process, emotion free trading, trade a plan and then look back, see how this plan is working. So many reasons to keep to this rule!!
Must try and run trades to target
Last edited by harry737; June 1st, 2015 at 06:41 AM.
Slightly bullish on Stox, with an eye on the Bund which looks weak, but a break above 3598 in Stox has a target to 3547, the Dax looks like it could also move higher.
Bund has been called much lower, perhaps a deal in Greece is imminent
Bund opened up so the morning call was incorrect for the Bund opening,
Stox Support 3569 3558
3571-3574 pivotal this morning
Last edited by harry737; June 2nd, 2015 at 02:19 AM.
Positive news about Greece, bought 3582 sold 3588 and 3576, so a scratch, normally if I get 10 ticks on first trade normally take it, but refused it, high of 3595 was posted.
Bought 3569 sold 3564, lazy trade, the bullish look to this mornings trade had gone for the moment and it bounced from 3565 to 3674, in earlier post this was the area was the pivotal area, so once, this was not able to go bid should of hit the sell button to get out.
So thinking, must be feeling a bit tired, also 3558 level has held and rallied ten ticks from that price 3557, so things could be better, but choices and speed of thought are making this a down morning. Break!!
Bund did sell off quiet aggressively 100+ from high, so the call was right, but the open was a golden chance to get short and this aggressive selling put pressure on the Stox, (although it was sold off without any massive accumulating of negative delta, which was probably a clue) the Bund selling stop and then the Stox bounced.
On the 60 min chart below, I still think it looks bearish the PAS vol indi is pointing down, tested a trend line break, which you could consider as a continuation pattern, to be honest I think not. Its consolidation with a brief look at the lows, rejection and buyers have come in since, but its a nagging feeling, if this deal falters once again!!
Then there is the Range bar which shows the accumulation of buyers a lot 212K, which is significant, so look for a LH, not sure on this because if the news changes again, market is selling off now but on low volume and its 7 mins to next hour, 11.53, leaving a tail on the 60 min, from the trendline mentioned above.
Confluence not confusion, is what I need, perked up a bit now though.
Stox trickling off, news about Greece to come out shortly, very low volume, looks scary liquidity wise, a break through 3584 should get the market up and away
Sources saying deal has faltered 12:21 no reaction
sources news now saying deal is completed, normally very reliable, but Greece is anything but reliable, only to confuse. Deal done 12:39 no reaction
Ok clarity is we need the Greeks(official) to step forward and agree the proposal, 12:52
Sold 3561 paid 3571, market has seen quiet a lot buying without reward, Bund made new lows so I sold Stox, dreadful trade, think fatigue had set in, quick move up to 3571 saw me move my stop and get stopped out on the high, pretty frustrating day.
Discipline still needs working on and must consider ranges highs lows, pick out a level and walk away, otherwise these trades out of boredom and frustration happen.
Prepare better, exit trades quickly when you are wrong and only move stops in!!
Last edited by harry737; June 2nd, 2015 at 10:59 AM.
Still nothing really agreeing with each other and no real clear look, but with the ECB meeting, which will be mainly about the Draghi's Q&A, etc etc
This will be probably be a ranging market in the Stox until the meeting
Bund might be an opportunity to get long, of late the meetings are Bond bullish(futures)
Last edited by harry737; June 3rd, 2015 at 02:43 AM.
Traded an early morning comment which I also considered a level, because of positive imbalance from the previous days trading session, 3564 felt like I jumped in again, plus there was no follow through and hardly any liquidity, so promptly scratched that trade.
Think the market was ranging and from the Unirenko chart, still showing an upward trend, I put a bid in at 3553, market was well offered at 3556 and held a bid, decent volume had gone through at 3557 8k, so bought 3558, lifted the offer, which I must do more often.
Lift Offer and Sell the Bid to get in. Sometimes miss excellent trading opportunities and then do something rubbish out of frustration, for not taking the earlier opportunity.
Bought 3558 sold 3571 and 3573
It was difficult to hold on, as there was decent accumulating negative delta on the up move which when trading at the bottom of the range, looked like the buyers had been seen off, but I was leaning on the fact that the PAS vol indi was pointing up, Unirenko up, trading above yesterdays VWAP (3561), these factors kept me in
Illustration shows the decision for entry of price and the charts that kept me positive about the trade.
Did move my stop up to 3568 and run the other half but it failed twice to break higher so sold the 73's target, then promptly made highs up to 3585 now.
Bought bund 153.06 sold 152.95 it was a speculative 1 lot
Happy with end result, felt like I was still having a punt, (second trade) then after a 5 mins, cup of coffee etc realised it was the right thing to do and had been done for the right reasons, but it was difficult to initiate, it felt awkward!
Have faith in what you do and be honest about what you are doing
Last edited by harry737; June 3rd, 2015 at 07:38 AM.
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Bund getting absolutely drilled, must have an effect on Stox, the carry trade is getting hammered, they are long Bund short Euro, long Stox.
Have a possible level in Bund here 150.30/29 illustration shown, but as a guy said in the pit one day"if ya want to be a bottom picker, ya best be a cotton picker", American
looking to sell the Stox higher at around 3579-87
buying at 3526(this the neck line) have head shoulders continuation pattern on the dailys, but with Non Farm tomorrow, keeping the look near term and not greedy, but will post the daily Dax and Stox illustrations
Bought Bund 150.30 sold 150.23, quick stop down re initiated at 150.28 stopped out 150.19, strong move lower,
Waited for a possible place to sell stox 3539 bought 3548, out of bullets moved stop, got out, done for the day, trading bund has cost me dear, now the stox has rallied giving excellent opportunities,
So disappointing, but repairable, only good thing kept to three trades, moved stop out in Stox because I knew I was wrong and it was last trade.
Tomorrow start again, opportunities will come, be patient and best leave the bund well alone.
Last edited by harry737; June 4th, 2015 at 09:50 AM.
Stox are under pressure, but it needs some follow through shortly as, the market seems to be getting short intraday, also DAX is off 10% from April highs .If Stox does manage to get back above 3527, we could see a short squeeze, although bearish on this market, now its down here feel the shorts are struggling to get any traction.
Generally the data coming out of the EZ is positive in the last few days other the Greek tragedy looming. So ...
Stox travelled to new highs, bought 3500 sold 3595, got in early must be patient will show the illustration below, for trade.
The 60min chart, looks bearish, now and the market is putting in lower highs, but it wouldnt take much to change this, the peaks and troffs are narrow, with no volume accumulating..positive or negative, so waiting for a clear look, are the bulls going to give up there longs, or encourage new selling, or bears exit shorts and buyers thinking the market has had a decent correction, to be honest would you want to enter into a position from the long side before the Greek situation is sorted.
Especially as Bunds are getting sold off(futures) now because anything in the Euro Zone debt wise, should be seen to paying a premium for holding them.
Talked myself into going long after the lack of volume and activity at these levels, bought 3496 sold 3493, only good thing I realised straight away i was wrong, other than that, followed my rules. Must stay patient, go with what the market is telling you!
Last edited by harry737; June 8th, 2015 at 04:23 PM.
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