First Trade jumped in after missing 3563 on the open and with this momentum of eagerness to trade sold 3658, once this was done the realization that no one else was quiet as eager. In fact the opposite, but lucky enough, I quickly accepted my lost and settled in to the second trade. So sold 3658 bought 3660
Sold 3657 Bought 3649/48, market traded lower had 3657 as the top of good positive delta, so once it trade down to 3651. I thought this should then offer resistance. Layed out in illustrations, in early thoughts.
Market did not stay there for long (below3650)and wish I had gone long, especially as I saw someone show a clip for a 3000 lot at 3648, in the US session yesterday get them.. trade 3644 and then up to the highs 3674.
Missed the lower high from 3665 but was offered at 3669, things are looking like they mount another rally to the highs, and when the Stox was getting sold the EMini stayed firm, which on the chart showed, overall, could be perceived as weak, also the 60 min. But and a big one, the PAS Vol indi is now bullish on the 60 min so even if it equals its overnight lows at 2115.75, not sure it will pierce straight through, before the pit opens. Which gives a good chance to get short at higher levels. (Normally a buyer of markets but some reason keep looking from the shortside)
2124.25 and 2128.75
Got a head and shoulders forming so this is will be my third trade, unirenko is down, PAS vol indi is down, think the break of 3646 will be difficult to break straight unless there is some news, because earlier stated this area 3646-3640 is decent support, so it will be tricky. Might trade a smaller size bigger stop, target is 3617. If I dont get on this will look to buy the dip down there around 3612-3606
Last edited by harry737; May 21st, 2015 at 06:21 AM.
Think the Bund breaking 153.77 could be a decent rally might watch that and the Stox is opening higher and so I want to sell it, but not going to, so look at Bund, think they must be betting on a Greek deal getting done.
Bit tired this morning and the Friday Fry Up beckons at 8am
missed the rally in Bund but it was in thin volume and do not want to rush the first trade
Third trade yesterday was to sell Emini at 2129 and scratched because there was a lot of selling and I couldn't think of a reason it might sell off, plus it was the end of the day and other than one bearish pattern, the EMini looks very bullish,IMHO I think it needs to rally hysterical like it got sold off at the bottom, probably not to that extent, but a real flush-rejection, if this steadily grinds up it could be a long summer.
small up yesterday, thankfully covering shorts near to low and realizing quickly I was wrong!
Weak opening for Stox, Greece worries, not going to buy 3648 level, feel there might be some longs caught in the market, would rather wait for the rally to sell into, probably the cash open might bring in some buyers, then look to sell the lower higher.
Although this level 3648 is holding,
Gomi ladder shows the positive and negative imbalance, far right column, for the previous trading day Friday 22nd, although the market has rallied to 3657 an LH was not put in so have to be patient and wait for the opportunity
Might go long around 3635/32 previous Neg imbalance and also the Supertrend 11 comes in at 3632
Sold 3665 bought 3650 and 3658, reasons given in illustration below, also 3665 had as an early morning high on 21st May, which from early journalling I remember trying to sell 3669(closing overnight gap) but stopped at 3665/7.
Bought 3626 previous neg delta, market looked weak so exited quickly as there was accumulating neg delta on the ladder and did not want to lose any ticks. Sold 3629
Unfortunately, I would be very interested in buying 3606/12, but I would rather sell a rally also
Lemons great setup today LL followed by LH on volume < 3
Last edited by harry737; May 26th, 2015 at 03:58 AM.
There is now some hope for the bears in the Stox, but the accumulating positive delta and the bounce is giving no real indication that they are right.
IMHO I think unless the Stox can trade back below 3600 and hold, there will be a bid in the market, but if it did manage it (hold below 3600)the move should be swift to the downside 3510/11
So there is two timeframe players in this sharpish move down and therefore would be happy to by the dip or sell a rally at the right price or good setup, so third trade undecided.So a look at the lows again, followed by a setup... PNF down move, closing on positive delta would be of interest, for a buy
For a Sell, 60 min is looking bearish perhaps a rally up to the tail as shown in illustrations might prove also an opportunity.
Third trade looking to sell LH as shown in illustration, might be lower at 3638/40 as market is moving lower as typing
terrible entry price chased it all the way down, stalled... over selling this from above 3650, eventually sold 3625 because of the positive delta imbalance and the accumaltion of neg delta on the way down.
Three up trades, but need to be a little more positive in what I am doing, although happy to keep the risk to a minimum, kept all trading rules and a step further to increase size, which is main goal to be up and increase size.
Last edited by harry737; May 26th, 2015 at 10:38 AM.
Nothing really bearish, news wise, to carry the market further down this morning, so might see support on the lows for Stox or a possible rally back 3639, above 3646, the bears will be losing any hold on these markets.
Pivotal level is 3610, with good negative imbalance on the lows from yesterday 3595-97.
So will sell 3639 first time and if there is a reason to get long at a decent level below 3610, will be interested.
Think the bund might be weaker in this early session, if it doesnt break yesterdays at154.94, but if it does this will encourage the Stox to rally
Just added a couple Illustrations that I am looking at, was 3604, rather than 3610 bid as mentioned above, hoping for a swift move to yesterday lows and a bounce
EMini head n shoulders neckline break 2106 target 2116
Also Bund ABC bearish pattern
First trade sold Bund 154.71/2 bought 154.83 still short one, stop did not fire
Markets are quiet and ranging
Went Long Stox 3624, sold 3619 was building ok, into a move up and news of Greece... no were near a deal(apparently) turned the market, the Bund reversed its move on the downside and rallied to the highs, Stox trading 2628/9 went down to 3613.
happy with reasons for trade, could of sold on the news, but thought it wasn't that significant.
Last edited by harry737; May 27th, 2015 at 06:49 AM.
Confused, and should stand to the side, but keeping an eye on market activity, so latest look illustration below
More thoughts, buyers meeting good selling on highs, unusual amount of positive delta accumulation and imbalance observed, illustrations below.
Still not sure, all this buying must be on some positive news to come, euro is getting sold off :/, stox good value?
Sold bund at a rubbish level and it duly found my stop, pretty un-impressive, sold 154.56 bought 64.
Start over again tomorrow, was close to scratching the day, timing was out, must improve on entry to market, wrong choice of trades, was patient and was disciplined, stuck to rules, must be more selective of price with bund
Last edited by harry737; May 27th, 2015 at 11:11 AM.
Bund wouldnt come off any bearish news and if it did it was a fleeting visit to lows, we have been ranging, but with the way it traded yesterday, I would say the move is to the upside, plus there is death cross in US Bond futures, bullish signal(50 above 200), plus there was curve flattening
Stox has opened lower would like to get long before the cash open, but if I dont no biggy looking to sell 3675, on a cash open buying frenzy, 3671 might be of interest for a sell
As ok yet know clear picture, there is bearish rhetoric (equities) regarding Greece, basically discounting the reason for the rally in the Stox late pm GMT, but there has been no panic selling to send prices back to the range when this came out(3610-3636).
Infact some good buying similar to yesterday on the highs. Market is now ticking off slowly but on low volume as I type, see gomi ladder illustration for the buying on highs.
Think this is a case of sitting on the sidelines leaving offer above 3575 and below at 3521
Broke the boredom traded decent reason, with trading the range in mind
sold 3657 bought 3650/1, bearish candle formation building, PAS vol indicator pointing down, illustration describes in detail. Also possible reasons for second trade, playing the range back up to 3665, see illustration below
glad I have not ventured into the Bund it looks hellish, very choppy, leave well alone!
Second Trade did not hold the trendline or VWAP as described and a lower low was put in at 3635, so no trade
Eventually traded sold 3637 on a rally from the lows bought 3641, had this as the break down, but of course it was a massive buy :/, trading up to 3648, spectacularly!! Straight line from 3616, less than an hour 3655-3616-3648, pulled the 3621 bid which would of been stopped out at the low, sorry for the rant!!
Not sure where they get the money to hold it up all day, then sell it down on decent volume and buy it all back again, on even more volume
Market is shot to pieces now and should leave well alone, Stox seems more likely to sell off when the bund is offered and the dollar is strong.
Besides all that there is a bullish ABC pattern and a gap to close from overnight at 3674, feels like total bonkers but thats the show, illustrations shown to build the case for it
No trade finished for the month, golf tomorrow, flat on day, could of been much worse.
Sometimes just selling the bid and getting in is the best trade, because I have waited all day, is the best trade, be aware of change of momentum.
Stuck to my rules, must have more belief in what I am doing
Last edited by harry737; May 28th, 2015 at 01:19 PM.