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Three Trades a Day
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Three Trades a Day

  #11 (permalink)
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Missed Trade in Bund

Good Setup, hesitated....and it was gone, he who hesitates wears frilly knickers

Attached Thumbnails
Three Trades a Day-bundsetup.png   Three Trades a Day-bundsetup_001.png  
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  #12 (permalink)
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I like your style of trading

Approx 2 weeks ago I stated to use volume in my trading.
I compare only last two swings.

For shorts I want to see LL volume / LH volume > 3
15282 / 3312 = 4,61

For longs I want to see HH volume / HL volume > 3
15288 / 3084 = 4,96

I call them "safe" trades



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  #13 (permalink)
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Hi



ESCL View Post
How long have you been studying technical analysis. This is good stuff!

Thanks, glad you like them, started around 1998 blew most of first account trading the Euroswiss(interest rates futures)on the LIFFE floor, felt like I was pissing in the wind, the words I used when speaking to my clearer and he handed me a Carol Charmers book, a small (in thickness)blue A4 ring binder book on Technical analysis .
It started from there and it has not stopped wanting to learn.
The LIFFE floor had over 5000 people working on it, there was 6 CQG machines, and I rarely cued to use it. Everyone traded the noise, actually remember CME bringing out an electronic pit , which was connected to the amount of volume going through on the screen, to try and help there clients deal with this new format. Not a bad idea out of the box, but it did not help and they were tough times for people who thought they had a career and a decent income, go to zilch. Which is the thing with this business, you can go from hero to zero very quickly.
Hope you have the education or the the metal and if you have both, you are a Superstar in the making

Murphys technical analysis is probably the best all incumbent book and very useful to have at hand for reference


Last edited by harry737; May 16th, 2015 at 06:08 AM.
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  #14 (permalink)
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Like it "safe trades"


lemons View Post
Approx 2 weeks ago I stated to use volume in my trading.
I compare only last two swings.

For shorts I want to see LL volume / LH volume > 3
15282 / 3312 = 4,61

For longs I want to see HH volume / HL volume > 3
15288 / 3084 = 4,96

I call them "safe" trades



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Glad you like this and confirms a style you are happy with, please post any examples, more than welcome and more than interested

H

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  #15 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

Daily Stox looks like it is caught in a trading range, plus the market sold off on Friday pm session, with a strong positive delta(buyers buying the offer), which with a slightly bearish bias at the moment on Stoxx, was surprised to see.
So much so the Unirenko is up, there was also a decent amount of buying into the close.
So should look to sell rallies and buy dips, look for the close on this session for, perhaps a weak close might tip the bulls.
Plus there is a bullish ABC pattern on my Unirenko chart.

We had a slightly stronger call for the bunds on Open and we actually opened lower so could be worth looking at getting long Bund but on a Monday morning looking like there is little or no interest, its like flicking a coin.

The Emini has a decent bearish ABC pattern on from the highs set Friday from around the start of the pit session(2:10 GMT), plus the Unirenko are pointing down, although the PAS volume on the 60mini is up at the moment.

Looking to sell Stox at 3569/70 and 3575/77

First Trade

Sold 3559 Bought 3564, always eager to trade thought it might touch the tail on the previous 60 min bar and make another run for the lows, strange because the market was accumulating negative delta and rallied all the way up to 3577. Which you might consider a hidden divergence, .
This trade was definitely a bit impetuous (which I paid the price for!!)and wasnt part of the early morning trading plan

Second Trade

Sold 3570 and bought 3566 was again a little eager and this negative accumulating delta and the rallying market should made me a little cautious as it blipped up to the other sell at 3577, which with a little bit of patience would of been my second trade, also I had left an offer at 2119 in the EMini, so thought best to be short one, so exited the Stox which then, more a less straight away, travelled to the exit at 3555!!

Third Trade

Sold 2119 emini because of the ABC pattern and Unirenko and the PAS volume indicator on the 60min is also down, target looking to cover around 2114, was slightly painful and was calling myself a lot of names, for getting out of Stox and sticking with the E Mini, which was trading near its high while Stox sold off!!
Very happy I held on paid around 2114-2114.75 all done for the day

Summary
Must stick to plan and stick to entry price, because this is my edge, do not jump in early. Happy kept the rules achieved an up day, one third of the way to increasing my size.
Friday and Monday trades below


Buying 3528/3527

Think market below 3550/3546 could turn market lower

Attached Thumbnails
Three Trades a Day-emini.png   Three Trades a Day-fridayandmondaytrades.png   Three Trades a Day-confusionreigns.png  

Last edited by harry737; May 18th, 2015 at 07:55 AM.
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  #16 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

Figures out this morning Zew, which can make be a bit choppy.

Were this stox has opened will probably encourage buyers this morning and having the bears running for the hills. There needs to be a pullback first for the market to rally properly. Need a little pullback. This is never easy to guess were this might be but two levels to buy would be 3571, which traded a lot of volume 42k and 3545 which has a good negative delta imbalance and its also were we rallied from yesterday afternoon.

As I am typing its rallying, but sometime this morning there will be a pullback

Attached Thumbnails
Three Trades a Day-stoxem.png   Three Trades a Day-stoxdaily.png  

Last edited by harry737; May 19th, 2015 at 03:29 AM.
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  #17 (permalink)
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First Trade very forgettale

Well after that mad buying frenzy on the open, was watching the ladders and sold 3628 on a pause to higher prices, twit. At least I managed to accept the loss and got out although very annoyed with myself for doing this trade

2nd Trade

Thinking there is a bearish wedge and might trade this, see how it develops, see illustration below

Also thinking of getting long the Bund now there is a pullback from highs.

Second Trade was to buy the Bund, buy @ 154.11, sell 154.40 avge. Reasons very strong up move in morning, absorption of volume after a decent pullback, also the target for ABC pattern (harmonic), sold 154.44 previous positive delta imbalance, illustrations below.

Attached Thumbnails
Three Trades a Day-stoxafterrampage.png   Three Trades a Day-bundtrade_001.png   Three Trades a Day-bundtrade.png  

Last edited by harry737; May 19th, 2015 at 08:48 AM.
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  #18 (permalink)
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Third Trade

Looking at the Stox slightly confused two good shows, so probably will not trade until it plays out a little more, also I have no real need to trade again, definitely not one which is giving mixed signals.

Thinking it through... the target on the 60min flag is 70 ticks, taken from the low of this morning to the high of today(this the pole), seems slightly unrealistic, on a decent up move already for the day, not saying it cant happen but..is it more likely to trade 3720 or 3612 sometime today

Third Trade went long at 3652 60 min looked like it was forming a very nice flag, also there was a lot of buying which was absorbed unfortunately, risk reward wise, this was a poor trade should of picked the entry price a little better

Done for the day
Summary
Difficult day in the Stox,
Moved my stop twice out, not good, must be quicker to react when trade is wrong and be honest about it.
Focus tomorrow one more up day increase size, very important!!

Attached Thumbnails
Three Trades a Day-2015-05-19_1254.png   Three Trades a Day-flagformation.png   Three Trades a Day-flagformation2.png   Three Trades a Day-lazytrade.png   Three Trades a Day-2015-05-19_1616.png  

Last edited by harry737; May 19th, 2015 at 12:45 PM.
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  #19 (permalink)
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Early morning First thoughts

Very quiet for figures this morning, BoE minutes probably the highlight, but cant see any surprises,

Dailys have gone on the blink for some reason as I was flicking around, from market to market. EurUsd looks in a bad way.

The question is, is the carry trade safe to put back on, borrowing cheap Euro debt buying the assets and shorting the EurUsd as hedge against the depreciating Euro. Bunds look shakey on the dailys, but with some curve flattening in the US session, also some rhetoric from the ECB supporting QE Bonds, could be all alright for these Stox
With Greek Exit being the only fly in the ointment.
With that in mind, if the bunds look strong and the Euro$ weak I am looking to buy the Stox, Feels like a struggle to buy Stox so might focus more on Bund, on the Euro$

First Trade

Sold Stox 3657, high positive imbalance and previous daily high also overnight gap left at 3642, Bund rallied 40 ticks and the Euro came off 60, all approx, so this made it very difficult to trundle down to my exit price which it nearly did and so consequently got out a little higher, as I felt I was actually going against the tide. The market has closed the gap and feel the move higher is very likely.

Second Trade

Stox Rallied to make a new high at 3562 and is now retreating lower, Stox are quiet and ranging, the Bund or Euro$ looks like there might be better opportunities, but saying that would re-consider a trade for the Stox if it came off hard.

Attached Thumbnails
Three Trades a Day-2015-05-20_0722.png   Three Trades a Day-vwap.png   Three Trades a Day-spring.png  

Last edited by harry737; May 20th, 2015 at 05:14 AM.
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  #20 (permalink)
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Second Trade


Went long Bund was an ok setup, Kept Stop tight! as I was only looking for quick run back up to the high, and there was a fair amount of buying that got absorbed, on the move up.
Illustration below

Third Trade

Drew a rectangle, breaking down, sold 3643, bought the VWAP on around for 4 lots and let the other one ride, looking to buy around 3612.
Ok stopped out 3665, no biggy small up, was a little snatchy, need to be more organized.
Will put my size up one lot lot,
Kept all the trading rules, was a day I might normally, get a little frustrated with, fresh start tomorrow
Illustrations below

Attached Thumbnails
Three Trades a Day-bund2nd.png   Three Trades a Day-shortstox.png   Three Trades a Day-trendlinestox.png  

Last edited by harry737; May 20th, 2015 at 12:04 PM.
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