Classic vacuum short trade early on.
Price went higher into the previous days obvious no trade zone. Made a pin bart on both 5 and 15 mins and went lower. Easy money. Attachment shows 5 and 15 min chart.
Price then moved into the previous days VPOC, another low volume zone, and then another HVN, as well as taking a dip into the late afternoon volume zone (not high vol yesterday though).
Engulfing candle on the 15 min so a nice long, especially when combined with lower volume than previous candle, implying that there is a vacuum above so price should move easily.
Can't say I spotted anything too obvious for the recent swing lower.
Pretty boring day so far isn't it?
Well, the short of the decade (Government bonds) most certainly had some fuel added to that particular fire. Bunds got pounded!
Of course I'm going to claim credit for this by identifying the perfectly balanced bell curve the day before implying a big move if it's boundaries were breached [cough]. And of course, I didn't trade any of it (see previous posts).
So trend days occur about 20% of the time, where price just keeps on going. I'm trying to work out when I became such a permafader (always trying to buy at the bottom/sell at the top). It means you're always trying to pick reversals when it's just easier to go with the flow on a trend day. I think I can pinpoint it to an fx course I did years ago with a well respected trader. Damn I can't remember his name but he was Canadian and used to compete in the Olympic bobsleigh team.
Anyway, this started my journey on the path of trying to be a smart arse. Selling when everyone is buying etc.
I was looking at trades today on both the bund and eurostoxx and whenever the price started stalling, I was looking for a reversal. Seriously, it's a disease, and I hope that anyone reading this (probably just my Mum though) that has the same problem can recognise and train your brain to override it. I'm certainly trying.
The bell curve trades would have worked fantastically well once again. I was monitoring them at the tinme, and they all were tradeable, and all gave signals. One thing I would say is that I'm employing 5 min charts and waiting for any kind of reversal candle on this before entering, rather than just entering at the level itself. I'm not sure if this is a good idea as I am entering at a worse position, however I like to see that price really is responding to the level that I have drawn out.
But using a 15 min chart will be too slow for these types of trades, they are quick intraday moves that sometimes don't even show up on the 15 min chart.
Chart 1-nice step from HVN to LVN. Is this a retrace or should you just short the top of the bell curve?
Answer is in chart 2.
Chart 3: Price retraces to the VPOC of the day and then signals a reversal-what to do?
Well if you're me you'll think "well I should go short here but it's near the bottom blahblahblah"
Chart 4 shows you the wisdom of this approach.
Have to leave office early, don't have time to post the eurostoxx chart but some excellent bell curve trades on that one today as well. Admittedly harder to take as there are possible resistance zones in the near past, but trading demands that you use the same trigger again and again, and if you have an edge then you will come out on top.
Well, that's the idea. Happy trading, hope people got some of the moves today.
Ok back in the office. Will go through Eurostoxx today, then do a plan for tomorrow. Although looking at it I have no idea what the plan will be-wow, what a day.
As per previous posts, i did not see anything that signalled such a sharp move lower on the stoxx today.
However, once it made it's move there was plenty of action to be involved in, and no need to obsess at not being at the very start of the move lower.
Please note that when I show potential entries, all my charts and their profiles display what was being shown at the time. The Volume profile changes as you scroll backwards through time in order to show how it looked, rather than give it an after the fact view (thinkorswim does not do this).
Chart 1-the first trade I looked at. Not so much a liquidity gap but a sharp step in the profile (with arrow).
Chart 2/3/4/5-watch on 5 min chart as price forms an HVN and goes up to sniff at a LVN
The following user says Thank You to Keab for this post:
Continuing on from last post-as it was a crazy day, prices dropped further.
A new HVN formed.
Look at charts below to see what happened when price reached the edge of the bell curve.
The interesting thing to note is that looking at the charts below, if you look at the bell curve that has formed around the VPOC (the thick red line), you can see that you can quickly trade long at least once as well as price bounced off the bottom of the bell curve before heading lower, even in such a strong selling market. It's only 10 pips but hey, hindsight is a wonderful thing.
Analysis for tomorrow:
Where to start. A huge down day, whether it was profit taking after a great run or something else I have no idea.
The next big tranche of Greek debt payment is approx may 9th, and it's a rather large amount of money so there are learned people (so not me) expecting that a default may occur around this point. To be honest I have no idea what effect this will have on the bund, but if people are taking profits before this then why the hell not.
In terms of profile analysis I think it will have to be a wait and see and react to bell curves as they develop tomorrow. It's an extremely stretched profile today with HVNs and LVNs all over the show. This means that I think that they are not tradeable by themselves, unlike the beautiful early trade in the eurostoxx between two clear HVNs separated by an LVN.
As such, I'll be looking for developing bell curves to act in confluence with an area made today, rather than just looking at any levels made today.
Some pretty big liquidity gaps on the daily and cumulative VPNS-see below.
If this is the start of something else rather than a retrace down (which it most certainly looks like), then I'm looking at the liquidity gaps of 3591-3600 and 3620 on the cumulative charts. They're extremely obvious, and they also have confluence with swing lows to act as resistance. Also, that 3600 is a nice round number and traders apparently have fun with them. And finally, it'll have to bump up against the VPOC of today (see chart 2 for daily VP) which is good resistance if it wants to move higher. So we shall see.
Just the one trade today (will post below). Was a play off the liquidity gap on the eurostoxx.
Need to work on my trades that aren't just off bounces in these areas e.g. the bund short this morning.
As i've previously stated, you know they're going down but if you're taking the break then it's an awful trading position.
Anyway-analysis of my trade today was waiting for a reaction off the liquidity gap that I mentioned in yesterday's round up. See charts below. In order, from left to right, they are 5 min, 15 min and 30 min charts. Go for the obvious. If it;s not obvious then I don;t want to know.
Analysis for tomorrow:
Same as before, will have to wait and see how the VP develops tomorrow
Eurostoxx: The 3-5 day cumulative VPs have nice liquidity gaps in them. Will look at playing these if price reacts off them