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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal
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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal

  #51 (permalink)
Keab
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So the daily vpoc has no shifted to 3681 on eurostoxx. Price could be on for a reversal here but I don't see any violent price reaction to this area so it could be a new bell curve forming at the top of the range, with price rotating from the highs/lows of this mini intraday bell curve if the new high price may well be accepted by the market.
There is a bit of a wick on the 15 mins, I'll give you that, but trading like this at extremes requires (for me at least) a lot more evidence that it is reversing.

Bund update-still in, was dicey-one pip from being stopped out. price reacted again to the bottom of the daily bell curve-let's see if selling is now exhausted and longs can now rotate price higher as I expected originally.

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  #52 (permalink)
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bootsyjam View Post
Bund long analysis:
Price opened above the previous daily range.

Price extended down to the edge of the previous day's bell curve and formed a pin bar on 15 mins.
Confluence with Daily VPOC of 2 days ago.
Level also coincided with a lot of short sellers on delta from Friday so expected a bounce.

HAsn't worked out as well as expected-was really trying hard but just couldn't break higher.
ENtry at 44, stop at 34. Still in. Just-not looking too good.

i see where you are coming from, but i find playing the bund in mid level areas at quiet times & tight range (mondays or lunch) is high probability for levels not to hold. you are better fading the extremes for a scalp, & expect a possible small bo of the high/lows (so place your stop accordingly). it had a HH & a trend continuation from late friday but still the odds looked slim, imo.

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  #53 (permalink)
Keab
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rosho01 View Post
i see where you are coming from, but i find playing the bund in mid level areas at quiet times & tight range (mondays or lunch) is high probability for levels not to hold. you are better fading the extremes for a scalp, & expect a possible small bo of the high/lows (so place your stop accordingly). it had a HH & a trend continuation from late friday but still the odds looked slim, imo.

Well the analysis was correct, it did push higher but then reversed.
An open above the previous day's bell curve with a pin bar in early trading when it's retraced back to it is a good signal. Looking at it again it was at the top of the 3 and 5 day VP bell curves which implies unfair prices, but I hoped that the strong open above the VP/bell curve of Friday would be enough to propel it higher.
Have to take those trades as the ones you don't take may turn out to be the winners. Strangely enough, despite being stopped out right now am happy with the trade. I understand why I entered, and I understand why it didn't work out as the overall trade position was not advantageous (top of cumulative VP bell curves), but it still had to be traded according to my system as there was confluence with many zones. If I pass that one up, then I would pass all them up!
The black mark for me was staying in for too long-always hard to judge when exactly a trade is no longer valid.
So it's just wash, rinse and repeat for the next one.

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  #54 (permalink)
Keab
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Sould add that I need to improve my ability to 'switch sides'. I understood what was happening on the bund, and conversely knew it would head lower when the 34/32 level was breached. But because it's at the bottom of a range I don't feel comfortable with the trade location. Something to work on....

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  #55 (permalink)
Keab
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Developing volume on bund at prev day's bell curve extreme, also at 3-5 day cumulative extremes. Let's see what develops here.
The bell curve at the top of the range is now partly 'old' volume so don't expect a VPOC shift, but certainly need to see some volume come in here that is noticeable/significant.

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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal-bund-level.png  
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  #56 (permalink)
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bootsyjam View Post
Sould add that I need to improve my ability to 'switch sides'. I understood what was happening on the bund, and conversely knew it would head lower when the 34/32 level was breached. But because it's at the bottom of a range I don't feel comfortable with the trade location. Something to work on....

cool - wasnt questioning your analysis, my comment was more re the low volumes trading, have found it to be higher risk time to trade, so half my size and/or tighten stop.

selling 41/42s was a goodish setup for me, after the LL 34s had printed, other than that, not really seen much else.

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  #57 (permalink)
Keab
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Similar trade locations on bund right now as opposed to eurostoxx earlier this morning.
Obviouslty not the same though as the eurostoxx move higher was clear as day (especially with that 30 min pinbar).
Nothing quite so obvious on the bund.

Sooooo exited eurostoxx at 44. It's at 09. Oh dear oh dear oh dear.

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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal-bundcurrent.png   Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal-eurostoxx-old.png  
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  #58 (permalink)
Keab
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So as I thought, the new VPOC on the eurostoxx was actually price acceptance at a higher level and price has continued higher.

Have an unfilled buy order on the bund for 14, looks like I've missed my chance on this one.

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  #59 (permalink)
Keab
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rosho01 View Post
cool - wasnt questioning your analysis, my comment was more re the low volumes trading, have found it to be higher risk time to trade, so half my size and/or tighten stop.

selling 41/42s was a goodish setup for me, after the LL 34s had printed, other than that, not really seen much else.

Hi Rosh,
Sorry, hope I didn't come across that i was annoyed. I understand what you meant and was just explaining (as quick as I could) my reasoning for the trade. That's why the journal is here, to talk it through with either myself 9or others) so your input is always appreciated. Bund looks good for a move higher here. Would target 34 but then again my profit taking record is abysmal!

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  #60 (permalink)
Keab
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To explain my thoughts on the bund a bit more-price went to the far end of the bell curve on 3-5 day cumulative profiles.

Then the biggest volume of the day had it's VPOC at 1.14 (hourly chart on left), whilst it was even clearer on the 30 min chart on the right). High vol and a vpoc at the low end of the range and price wants to move away. Always good for a move....

I should add that I'm less happy trading in the afternoons (I'm in the UK) Levels seem less clear, can be used up/hit in the morning sessions, whilst I'm also most likely a bit more tired so my analysis (and brain) is not as fresh as I'd like it to be.

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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal-bund-multitime.png  

Last edited by Keab; April 27th, 2015 at 10:24 AM. Reason: new info
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