Yup price drops to 60. [slaps forehead].
Took profit way too early on bund short yesterday as well. looking back at it I made a mistake for 2 reasons.
First it was after a tight bell curve day. There is a lot of capital committed within these days, and when price moves away from this zone, one side of the trading equation has to liquidate which results in large moves.
Second, there were 2 failed breakout attempts where longs came in to drive prices higher. When the price finally dropped, these longs also had to liquidate. See black circles in chart.
Nice reversal patttern here-big volume on 30 min bar, and a lot of volume has come in at the bottom of the bar, and has combined with a pinbar. Shows rejection of this area combined with volume behind it acting as some resistance below the price. Am not taking a long, but if I was a trading robot I'd be in here....
Ok back in the office and no jack hammer going off this week. Yay.
First trade of the week-long eurostoxx at 28, exit at 44 (16 pips profit). Once again an early exit for profits-I'm an expert at that. Price is now up at 56/7. Exited early at a bump in the daily VPOC but clearly this was insignificant. If I had stayed in then thie current price area would be my profit taking area.
Trade set up-chart 1:
Price dropped sharply from the top of the bell curve of the previous days VP-left circle on chart. I should have been short here but was concentrating on the bund and going long on that one.
Price then dropped on high volume to the lower end of the bell curve of the previous day. You trade at the edges of bell curves as they represent unfair price.
Price reacted to the bottom of the bell curve with a nice pin bar.
The daily VPOC then shifted down, signifying that traders were no interested in this price (right hand circle on chart).
The price area was also the edge of the Bell curve on my 3 day cumulative chart-more confluence.
Price was also at the VPOC of 2 days ago.
Finally, the big down bar this morning had big volume, and the VPOC of this big volume bar also shifted lower to 3627.
All of the above analysis of the likely reversal area is all well and good but price has to show me that it's not interested in staying there and reversing, hence the need for a pin bar.
I use the 15 min as it's a bit slower and confirms that price really is reversing.
Bund long analysis:
Price opened above the previous daily range.
Price extended down to the edge of the previous day's bell curve and formed a pin bar on 15 mins.
Confluence with Daily VPOC of 2 days ago.
Level also coincided with a lot of short sellers on delta from Friday so expected a bounce.
HAsn't worked out as well as expected-was really trying hard but just couldn't break higher.
ENtry at 44, stop at 34. Still in. Just-not looking too good.
To analyse the Eurostoxx move higher this morning:
The strong push down to the edge of the volume bell curve actually acted as a clear out of all the sells. price has moved higher on relatively low volume through this zone as there is nothing left standing in the way of the price going higher-the sells have not reloaded their limit orders, they were spent.
The trick is recognising when the sells have been cleared out and price is free to move through this vacuum-it still looked crowded to me on my charts which was clearly a mistake!
We're seeing a volume spike in the daily VPOC up at these levels. Nothing major yet, let's see what price does. Price also up at outer edges of bell curves on 3 and 5 days cumulative volume profiles.
Bund-am still long-cam within a pip of being stopped out but still looking dicey to me.
Last edited by Keab; April 27th, 2015 at 07:11 AM.
Reason: new info