Woah eurostoxx bust out of it's range there!
Managed to scrape a few pips on the breakout against heavy selling delta-entry 44, expected it to go up to about 61 but got spooked as there wasn't much follow through so a whole 2 pips for the day so far! Watch it shoot up to about 61-64 now that I've exited...
Last edited by Keab; April 20th, 2015 at 10:02 AM.
Have to say I think I'm starting to understand trading from a large position trading perspective. Or maybe I don't but I just think that I do.
But here goes.
The eurostoxx breakout was clear to me. Because I'm only trading one contract, I have to hang on for more pips to generate a good return, so exiting for 5/6 pips is not attractive to me.
But if I entered 5/50/100/500 contracts on that same breakout, with an eye to making 4-5 pips, then what is the better trade idea? Holding on in the hope that price will extend further in my direction, or trading high probability set ups like this eurotoxx one, but with greater size and smaller profit expectations? I think it might be the latter....
100 contracts= 1000 per point. 4 pips=4k. One high probability set up per day, per market and you're set. No need to try to pick swing highs/lows like a smart arse and wait and hope that others recognise these turning points.
My final analysis of the day is to say that if bund prices stay in this range then it's a perfect tight bell curve on volume profile (so prices are in a range). That 'usually' leads to a trend day, as all the volume/trades tend to be left in the market rather than being liquidated at highs/lows/in trend days as new prices are accepted. So that means price should move nicely tomorrow with a possible trend day.
Eurostoxx is still in quite a narrow range too so same applies...
Very annoying-got to work early but not early enough to catch the breakout from a very narrow bell curve day of trading.
Eurostoxx opened out of the previous day's range and has shot higher.
My reasoning: a lot of people were still in a short position by end of play yesterday. As price has opened outside of the range they have had to liquidate their shorts by buying, then local traders like me will be jumping on this and buying to open to drive the price higher.
Well, I would have been. Looks like on bell curve days I'll have to be ready to trade at 7am, not 8am. Ouch.
Short the bund-entry at 17 (not the best-was worried price would take off without me).
Have learned that it is important to wait for a strong close beyond a level if playing a breakout. Strong close is circled (as opposed to the rejection bars earlier on).
Out at 08 as it's the Value Area low on my 5 day composite. Good trade except for my bad entry. As there was a bit of a drawback on the confirmation candle I should have waited for a slightly better price. Who knows.