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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal
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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal

  #21 (permalink)
Keab
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Some analysis.
Bund at all time highs.
1 hour pinbar. Lot of business occurred at the bottom but not so much at the top half. Decent overall volume too. Selling on delta. Could be pointing to a drop this afternoon. But short the bund-what sort of crazy fool does that?
Was looking for an entry at about 32 but wasn't filled.

Edit-price has dropped as expected to 19 which is the VPOC so far today. Looks like it could be one of those days of missed chances-it happens. I was hovering over the manual market entry rather than a limit order for the short but didn't take it. Oh well. Most important thing is to not revenge trade. Wait for price to show you where traders are not interested in being and go from there.

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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal-bund60min.png  

Last edited by Keab; April 16th, 2015 at 09:26 AM. Reason: New info
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  #22 (permalink)
Keab
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Eurostoxx analysis.
At majopr lows here. Chart shows a lot of people are doing business at the bottom form 3690-3685. Whether they are accumulating longs and eating up sell limit orders-who knows? I don't see obvious signs that price doesn't want to be there, but then the slow grinding moves are often the ones that lead to the best price moves as they eat up the ceilings/floors before progressing. Not sure what to do here, the bad side of me wants to take a speculative long, the other side that forces me to write this post and organise my thoughts tell me that there are no actual signs that indicate where price actually wants to move away from.
Yes there is volume occurring here. Yes it is at multiday lows and is at the extremes of volume profile. But so what-is there any evidence to show that price wants to move higher? Not yet....

This is in direct contrast to my previous post on the bund. Price showed you where it din't want to be at so trade with the clue that this gives you.

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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal-eurostoxx-analysis.png  
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  #23 (permalink)
Keab
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So eurostoxx broke up-didn't go long.
Chart attached-60 min (left) and 90 min bars with vol profile areas where no trades took place. Would be looking for a return to these areas.

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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal-resistance.png  
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  #24 (permalink)
Keab
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Attempted manual entry at 96 and IB shut down. Really not my day!

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  #25 (permalink)
Keab
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Entered on retrace back down-wrong move. Stopped out for -7. I ignored some pretty negative price action and volume profile on the 15 min and 30min chart so my own fault-I was too wedded to the idea of a move higher and ignored what price was telling me.

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  #26 (permalink)
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bootsyjam View Post
Attempted manual entry at 96 and IB shut down. Really not my day!

oh dear, sorry to hear, IB was ok for me. was that the exchange then or your pc/internet?

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  #27 (permalink)
Keab
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Hi there, think it was IB as kinetic feed was fine. IB apparently does have connectivity issues-goes down a few times a day at least which is annoying.
How was your trading day-catch the move higher? And lower
Mine was a day of missed opportunities-am in a long now(a play on delta)-4 pips up but am not happy! Just closed out. Tomorrow is another day...

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  #28 (permalink)
Keab
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Was ill on Friday so no trading-picked a great day for that one.
Hindsight analysis:
Bund:
Broke through the strong selling on delta (chart 1-circles on left) which fuelled a good pop higher (circle on the right). Buying petered out and price auctioned lower to attract buyers. Can't say that I would have identified that!

Eurostoxx:
Fake early break down away from the late day volume area, retraced back into this volume area, and then broke down for a major trend day (dax also broke lower). Would like to think I would have been short on that one!

Today.
Eurostoxx: was looking for a move higher thanks to the b shaped profile on the previous day. Got a bit of a pop where good selling delta was beaten but no real follow through.

Bund:
Nothing of note for me...

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Eurostoxx and Bund futures journal-bund-20-04.png  
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  #29 (permalink)
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bootsyjam View Post

Bund:
Nothing of note for me...

long weekend for those over worked bond traders.

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  #30 (permalink)
Keab
London UK
 
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rosho01 View Post
long weekend for those over worked bond traders.

Would appear so? German news out early tomorrow so am guessing market is waiting for that!

Eurostoxx analysis as I'm bored:

This analysis is being made on the presumption that the current range of 45-27 is not broken today.
News out early tomorrow so price is ranging waiting for news to....

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