fIRST CHART: High total volume. Lots of traders interested. Is a real spike in vol here so that's always good-could be exhaustion move. Can also see that combined with the price rejection pin, we have a lot of traders interested down here-that VPOC looks strong to me.
2nd chart: no-one was interested in trading here so far today-LVN (low volume node) circled on right.
Price is interested-see the pin bars also circled.
Entry at 3737-profit level is around 3747-50.
The following user says Thank You to Keab for this post:
Too aggressive in profit taking area after exiting too soon earlier on-should have had it a tick or two below the daily POC at about 46. Was expecting a quick and violent move higher thanks to the beaten delta but was not correct-probably too late in the day for it now. Exited at 3740 for +3.
Still, it's better than a punch in the face.
I don't tend to look too much at charts at the end of the day to see the likelihood of moves tomorrow other than looking at the 3-5 day cumulative profile. And even then it's a cursory look.
My main areas are the previous day's VPOC, previous high and low volume nodes, as well as where delta started a move and got soundly beaten against it's own volume (i/e/ loads of buying but price goes below this buy area).
And then I see what price does around these areas. If you come up with too much of a plan then you set a mental bias which is not good in my opinion.
So I'll look at those areas tomorrow, then I'll see how price is reacting off them, then I'll see if volume is providing any clues. And making sure I'm not entering too close to any pesky news announcements.
Price made it into my rejection zone on the 15 min (see chart 1) but I did not receive a signal on the 15 min.
Second chart is 5 mins-strong signal on that but I didn't take it as entry would have been poor with a wide stop. Realistically a 1.25:1 (ish) risk reward-I no longer live in the fantasy land of 3:1 risk reward but a wide points stop means price has to go further/work harder to make the trade worthwhile. Am I right? Who knows....
Bit annoyed, may have missed good reversal, will see how price moves.
Has come down to a good area, has very good volume and price has spiked. Is buying on CD, and a nice VPOC on the 30 min bar showing a good band of volume that looks like it might want to trade with.
My motto for all of this is-where does price not want to go. Those are my clues.
Attached is a 1 hour chart of eurostoxx with profile attached.
Shows the opening balance-the opening hour.
Can see that no-one wanted to trade at the top half (circled) , but all if a sudden people are becoming interested in the lower end. VPOC shows at about 3713. Whether it is people exiting winning positions, who knows. But price has bounced up a bit from here, and we have lots of traders interested in doing business here (overall volume is good). Surely that's a clue for something?
Always like to wait for interest to show on 15 min chart as 5 min chart can give too many false signals (hence why I didn't short this morning). Always looks great after the fact, but is easy to gloss over the couple of losing trades taken as price just wasn't quite ready to move, and you end up being stopped out making it a nil sum game.
Long at 3716
Nothing too obvious for me on Bund. Price at 160.11/12 has a lot of interest around it today.
Closed out at breakeven. Went up to 3624 but did not follow through as expected.
Bund rebounded from 09, bit below my area of interest, up to 23 before dropping off. Looks like drift until the US open.
Should add that it was silly not to close out up at 24. The hourly profile shows that no-one was interested in trading at that price today, and in the absence of any more news to change sentiment, then that area still held true.
Eurostoxx has dropped sharply-should have been in on it. The buy volume that I described in prev charts today was liquidated once price failed to move higher. I got rid of mine at 16, it would appear that people got out at 9/10 which resulted in the spurt lower. Should have been with them!
Bund: chart 1.
Big volume bar of the day is circled-opening balance (hour after London open). Trades were pretty balanced, prices didn't show any areas where they really didn't want to trade except possibly the 04-08 area. A plan for that would have been to enter long at the POC at approx 11 and see what happens.
Chart 2: eurostoxx-same timeframe. Move down, as expected, from area that I highlighted. Traders got interested at the bottom of the bar and I took a long expecting a decent bounch. It didn't happen, price came up to where you can see no-one traded in the volume profile and came back down again. Then once it had broken the lows of the days and the opening value area then prices shot lower as traders who had gone long exited, whilst those chasing the price down opened selling positions. I should have been with them. Woulda shoulda coulda. The mantra repeated by traders across the world after the fact