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I honestly haven't a clue!
It's a good example of trying to trade with no preconceptions. I was watching it but didn't go long at the double bottom despite it being a strong signal-I only want to trade with the trend!
Some interesting moves today, and a great example r.e. why the cumulative delta is fallible as hidden limit orders can prive just as powerful.
I got to work late this morning so missed the early buying opportunities.
I didn't take the breakout at 154.19 as I did not see sellers step away on the DOM, nor did I see buyers piling in. It also failed my back up plan as the 3 mins did not maintain it's close above the breakout price, combined with strong price action. So it was no go.
What I ended up trading was the unexpected (according to the delta) break lower, and the retrace back to this breakout area.
See the areas circled in the charts below.
First chart shows the entries.
If looking at the arrows on CD and price, I could see that any breakout higher would be very strong as the amount of buying on the CD would result in all the sell orders being exhausted, and price would rise in a vacuum (with buying volume behind it from people like me. But waaaaay bigger traders).
Conversely, that same CD can also start a move lower. What will all those buyers do when they are trapped to the 6-8k of buy contracts?
They're going to sell to exit, and that's exactly what happened when price broke 93. Entered short here, and at the retrace (both circles in chart 1). Have to say I was a bit more warty than normal-price was retracing back into the oepning range, and as such there is always the danger of a sharp reversal.
Second chart shows how I see the CD-I zoom right out and am looking at big divergences/changes in CD. A difference of 1-2k of contracts doesn't interest me, I'm not after exceptionally short term pinging around
Frustrating morning so far-one trade-all good (circled on chart 1).
Retrace into resistance which is the top of the VP bellcurve where no-one has really traded+ reaches VWAP, then a strong price bar with volume telling me that sellers are still in charge.
Chart 2- there was another signal-nice strong price move with volume.
BUT.
I did not take this one. Price had cleared a previous low, and I could see that this reversal happened near (and above) both the VWAP and the VPOC. It was also in the middle of a heavy volume node on the VP, so I though it could be liable for a fair bit of chop.
Not a fantastic position to initiate a trade so I didn't take it.
See chart 3 for what happened next!
LAst trade of the day.
Bund-price stuck in a channel, attempted a breakout but was rejected (no entry thanks to 3 min bar rule).
Price retraced back down into the channel but then reversed, for the first time, at the VPOC, thus making a higher high.
Volume kicked in on the buy side with a nice price bar to match. Long at the circle in the chart. Exited at top of channel at 71.
Only trade 1 lot-ideally would be trading 2 lots then exiting at top of channel, moving stop to breakeven and holding in case of a reversal back through the highs.
Sure enough, it did this (see chart 2). Also received a nice signal on tick chart with increased volume+corresponding price action for an entry but decided against it (area circled in chart 2). Whoops. Price busted through as expected, taking a lot of the shorts in the market with them and stopping them out, driving the move higher as the sellers covered their shorts by buying.
If I had thought about it clearer I would have entered either on my tick chart entry signal, or on my 3 minute breakout bar confirmation (chart 3). Not only did it close above the highs of the breakout zone with good price action, it also filled the pre-requisite of a more guaranteed breakout: price being locked in a channel with 2 or 3 reversal points, thus ensuring that more people are exiting at a loss to close their positions in order to drive the price even further in the direction of the break out. Oh well, it's a long day.
My main problem is a mental block. I have spent a long time trading and have made many mistakes in the past. As such I am wary about entering a position as I second guess myself: "is this really part of your trading plan? Are you trading this for the sake of it because you're bored/frustrated?" Etcetc. Need to get over it.
But still, the beauty of trading is that tomorrow is another day. I will need to mentally reinforce my breakout trade rules, especially when dealing with the powerful range breakouts.
Whilst I also have the eurostoxx up for reference, my bread and butter is the bund. It moves more, giving more points on average than the eurostoxx-as such it is more economical to trade with commissions.
Also, I just prefer it. If i can master the bund then that is all I (or anyone else) will need). And I can attest to the belief that concentrating on just one market increases your understanding of what is going on. maybe I'm just not built for it, but I find it hard to switch between two markets and then remember all the levels/observations that I'm making throughout the day.
