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bund futures - intra day trading journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

hello

as with many other journal'ists i am doing this for my own benefit, whatever else comes from it is a bonus. BMs comments in the first post of the sticky in this section is admirably refreshing in its honesty ( ), i need to do exactly the same & take account of my actions. i keep a basic journal, but am also hoping this will add detail to my trading which i can review each week. without being arrogant or complacent, most bits of the jigsaw are there - i have proved this before, i 'just' need to tighten the 'me' bit up again - knowing full well this is the hardest part.

a little context - i have traded futures for approx 10 years intermittently, spending cpl of those at prop firms trading spreads (STIRs / Oil cals). i have made some gd money trading & also lost a lot. i have had a break from trading for a few years, but in that time kept busy with - screen time; learning TA; reading a tonne of great threads as well as many poor ones; & dabbling unsuccessfully in FOPs. My main priority for the break though was for personal reasons, thankfully these are in the main behind me & my focus once again is on trading, & i am looking fwd to the challenge.

my trading fundamentals:
~use Interactive Brokers to clear, iqfeed for data & market delta charts. chart prices adjusted to smooth contract periods (continuous). i am looking at Amp futures to clear instead as its >50% cheaper to trade eurex. wld just like to add that i greatly appreciate the discounts received through futures.io (formerly BMT).
~markets: trading outright bund, eurostoxx & ES mini futures, with most volume in the bund. trading roughly 3-6 bund trades per day; 1 eurostoxx & snp. i have only been live trading these mkts for a few weeks, & paper traded them for a few weeks prior & have few years screen time watching these (& other) mkts.
~position size in all mkts is 2 lots max. i may scalp with 1 lots. occasionally when the level i am looking to trade is wide i may be entering with 2x1 lots at diff prices.
~targets & stops will vary with regards to market conditions (eg ranging; with or against trend; high/low vol), but in general: bund trdes will have approx SL 5 ticks, TP1 10 ticks, TP2 15 ticks & TP3 20 ticks. the occasional scalp will be tighter SLs/TPs. the TPs will be based on where i think price may struggle/consolidate/reverse according to PA, though i may use an indicator to add confluence to that.
~i do not trade over figures but may hold a position (if onside) prior to some figs with tight stop. obv dependent on which figs also.
~i will try & post trade entries as quickly after entry as poss, though its likely that by the time i post prices will differ to my entry as i try my hardest (though it doesnt always happen) to enter when expecting a quick reaction (coiling mkts etc). sorry. i will provide a view of what i may trade at the start of each day but am finding that i trade best after a the days market starts to take shape.
~when mkts are very volatile there maybe some delay in posting entry details, hopefully i can provide some pre &/or post analysis.
~i trade off technical analysis / price action mainly - support / resistance levels & esp pivot zones (not pivot points) where support turns to resistance (& vv). this may or may not encompass price patterns but these will not be prerequisite, minimal to zero indicators - perhaps if its not the best setup i may look for confluence. i am aware that institutions use indicators, & thus they can be gd reference tool. not really utilised market/vol profile/footprint yet though am feverishly reading up on them, & have enjoyed a few webinars mainly futurestrader71 (inc his daily preview).
~my style of trading is mixed - i will look for swing, continuation (trend) & scalping setups, i do have some parameters required to align before entering as a reminder, this rule may get broken when say intuition takes over but a bit of structure suits me....otherwise i will drive myself nuts questioning my intuition to a degree that its no longer intuitive or i never enter a trade.
~i will be aiming for strike rate of >=50% & hopefully pushing near 60% with risk:return of 1:>=2. this is loosely based on short time live & demo trading the bund.
~my orders are limit & mkt, & v occasionally stops. TPs will mainly be limit, though sometimes when the picture changes i may be hitting bid/lifting offer.
-unfortunately i am still unsure about using discretionary TPs, so i am keen to stick with a set TP of approx 10 ticks (with 15+ tick runners if the setup looks great ie trading w/ trend) for now, though it cld change on review after decent sample size of trades.
~no fixed daily targets or stops but will try & aim for avge 20-30ticks (20ticks/day woth SR=50% & total trades=4 in ranging mkt with rr 1:2 where TP 10 ticks; SL 5; posn size 2 lots) & stop for the day at no more than twice the days target & hopefully only 1 days target. key for me is consistent up days, & <=4-5 down days a month. i hope to hit couple of big up days per month. i am not going to go into stats too much.
~only trade 1 clip at moment, will look for 2-3 weeks of good results & up size to 3 lots.
~unlikely to trade the first 20mins of the day, nor the last few hours, and wont have overnights.
~will not fade day lows/highs unless strong prior day levels with confluence, or will wait for further confirmation to enter.
~ risk on each trade is approx 1-2% of account.

my strengths & weaknesses imo:
~i think i am quite good at reading market flow eg where intraday S&R is; where price may struggle/continue/reverse; & picking where price is about to accelerate into/away from levels. i obv do not try & predict where price will go next, but whereever it goes hopefully it will provide some opportunities which i am prepared for. this journal shld prove/disprove this.
~main weakness, as paradoxical as it may sound, is trading the above strength - this maybe cos: lack of (mainly)/over confidence - which can relate to upsizing or protecting profits et al; emotional trading; something else - this is what the journal is about i guess.
~also not sure how to deal with entering price too early eg say my buy entry is 50s with SL 45s & it pushes through to 45s but the trade still looks good - do i adjust my stop; or allow getting stopped out & wait for reenter (risk being stopped out twice at same level)? or do i need to leave that level alone now & work on entering better? or put 2x0.5 posn entries in around the level? i have widened stops when its a strong-with-trend move as TPs are larger. picking levels correctly & either being too late or early is testing experience, perhaps with solid results behind me i will be averaging into these. for now though i am only trading one clip.
~missing occasional trades due to needing to take a break from the screen to refresh the mind, or even just doing some admin at the desk. good setups occur at no particular set time across the day, so planning around this is futile.

some caveats:
~i may post the occasional off topic nonsense (though definitely no miracle of god testimonials) as a digression to the trading day.
~i may ditch this journal at anytime if i feel its negatively impacting my trading. i am realistic about the chances of making decent money consistently from trading and i want to give myself the best shot - this journal may or may not help the process, time will tell.
~if someone gets ad hom then i will just ignore (well will try to, though i may bite), but if you provide reasoned criticism then i will oblige to respond as best as poss. also if you are querying price or smthg pls provide context ie a chart will help.
~i may look to trade another main market to the bund if the ecb bond purchases adversely affect the market as i see/trade it - ie a steep long term rally with small retracements is not my idea of a great intra day market, though i will endeavour to try & work with the mkt flow & its main participants to best of my advantage. gotta love these central bank manipulated markets.
~i guess i will try not to edit posts stating entries for obvious reasons - will just update with a reply if market entry / exit is too quick to post near the time of that action.

journal format:
not sure how to do this, just need to get it started and will prob evolve from here. i am averse to posting a pre open chart with areas of interest as more often than not i dont trade them - i have been trading intra day price action mainly, if prev days levels come into the picture then i still wait for current day PA to provide a setup.

ultimately this will be about me trying to improve myself, i wld appreciate it if ppl cld read the thread before asking q's, i doubt this will be an epic, & expecting little interest with so few bund traders here by the looks of it.

i think this opening post is too long, sorry.

gl trading.

rosho

p.s.
attached is todays bund M5 chart to indicate some setups which i look for regularly. i will explain more in detail as trades get taken (or missed for whatever reason).





-------------------------------------------------------------------
edit: heres a later post summarising more about entry/exit/SL/targets etc.....


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  #3 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


as mentioned before i havent traded prev day levels much, unless its major & will wait for additional PA confirmation anyway.

for reference though heres todays 'levels of interest' (prev support/resistance) & confluence as determined from daily & lower timeframes (i will refer to weekly charts occasionally):
158.30-35 (intraday fib 38)
158.48-52 (intraday fib 50)
157.70-74 (prev high daily also)
157.32-36 (big day range resistance)
157.10-17 (day fib 62)

minor/vague levels:
158.10-16
157.82-84
157.48-50 (day fib 50)

notes:
bear flag on hourly? upper level 158.24/lower 157.90?

day bias:
try not to have one, esp as ECB can step in at anytime. they have been buying from 9.20am (CET) for 2 days this week afaik. got a quick rally yest near this time - not sure if algos/institutions were front running. will be very tight on stops if a fade setup develops then.

chart H1 attached which highlights these.

gl trading.



(chart times are CET btw)

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  #4 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

24s are prev support turned res, & upper limits of this range now 157.90-158.24s - not looking to sell lower than this at the moment, and if it retraces this far then will see how PA develops. i still prefer the 158.32s level for a sell, again it depends how it gets there.

if we stay below these lower levels for a decent amount of time then bias may swing to bearish & will look for other short setups as PA develops for larger potential r:rs.

the caveat with the bear flag is we are in long term up trend & breakout of sideways day range on the upside. oh and ecb are buying bund!

m5 chart (title 'H4' is wrong):

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  #5 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

trading 101 - dont leave orders in market - IB booktrader is quite cumbersome & i had buy orders in below where i wanted to enter (70-74)so i can adjust/lift offers if quick entry is required & was looking making notes got filled & stopped in quick succession. -10 ticks.

attached long & short trade set ups (sell 90s / buy 70s) - the quick pullback on the hourly isnt great for the short 90s but its w/trend. favouring a long 70s for trend reversal at present, but all depends on how price gets there/developing PA.

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  #6 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

i took the first 2 swing trades as per prev post, will update later.

heres another potential (3rd arrow) - it has already got up to 89s & back to 83s so i think i missed this boat unfortunately, though if it struggles to get back up to 90s i may look to hit the bid.

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  #7 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

SWING TRADE 1: as mentioned earlier - a mistake. -10ticks.

SWING TRADE 2: +38ticks
SOLD 95s SL 00s BOUGHT 76s. Paid Didnt like the way PA travelled up to 90s, they traded a small & it came off 7 ticks, so was looking to sell above this hoping for a quick spike into the 90s Sold 95s.

SWING TRADE 3: +21ticks
BOUGHT 72s SL 66s SOLD 82/83.

Almost got stopped out on both, and had extended SL by 1 tick on the last trade which saved me. Poor entries on the second and should have moved it again due to the gradual trickle down into that area.

I scalped early this morning with 1 lot -5ticks.

+44 ticks (less commission).

This is my day target so the propensity is to be more selective - though logic is saying just continue to trade as normal regardless pnl.

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  #8 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


rosho01 View Post
heres another potential (3rd arrow) - it has already got up to 89s & back to 83s so i think i missed this boat unfortunately, though if it struggles to get back up to 90s i may look to hit the bid

yep - that was the one opportunity, its done its target also which would have been 79s & possibly let it run down into the previous PA as per the chart. Sometimes you have to hit the bid on these, its going with trend also, though PA is little more congested. this is the dilemma - sometimes i like for it to move away then retest & fail - wld be great if cld identify which are likely to happen when, though unlikely.



bit choppy today, its back to 90s. not working anything til the pic becomes clearer.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

Next area for sell is up at 05s, but i would like price to stay around the 80s level for longer before travelling back up there, there has been some strong rejections at 70s now which makes me question the strength of the down trend & value (as i see it) is creeping higher.




Cannot see any buy levels at the moment.

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 BenG 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7 and MT4
Trading: Dax, ES, FX, Gold and Oil but what Bund and Bobl also.
 
BenG's Avatar
 
Posts: 106 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 108 given, 126 received


Hi Rosho, nice to see someone making a Bund journal. I hope all will work out as desired. It's been a hard battle trying to get backed with no "live" STIRS trading experience for me, so I'm currently working towards getting enough capital together to trade for myself. I have been trading Bund, Bobl, Shatz and Euribor in sim before with orderflow, both outright, spread and flys, so no charts etc. I look forward following your journey

Don't let money control you, control money!
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  #11 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


BenG View Post
Hi Rosho, nice to see someone making a Bund journal. I hope all will work out as desired. It's been a hard battle trying to get backed with no "live" STIRS trading experience for me, so I'm currently working towards getting enough capital together to trade for myself. I have been trading Bund, Bobl, Shatz and Euribor in sim before with orderflow, both outright, spread and flys, so no charts etc. I look forward following your journey

Hi BenG, thanks for the kind words, its gd to know there are some FI traders about.

Are you trading spreads or outright? I dont have bobl or shatz charts or ladders up (IB plays up with more than 3 ladders, & you only get bid/offer quote if you want more) but i know they dont move much.

I wouldnt be too concerned about focusing only on STIRs, you may find you are more suited to other markets. If you get 6 months of live trading regardless the market with consistent results that should be enough to get backed by a prop firm, though the profit share maybe circa 50%.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

This looks nice buy area @ 80s esp as M5 has been making HHs & HLs & this area will fall cose to upper trend line on the M5....again will wait to see what happens (i need to have this as a signature hmm).




re sell set up: the failure of this upward move to make new swing highs at 99s is better for the potential sell i posted at 05s. i wld like price to hang around mid 90s then spike up into 05s looking for quick rejection of new swing high. if this doesnt happen, then 13-14s is my next sell area.

my analysis prob reads as v jumbled, my fault in explaining myself. i will look to summarise these over the weekend.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


rosho01 View Post
re sell set up: the failure of this upward move to make new swing highs at 99s is better for the potential sell i posted at 05s. i wld like price to hang around mid 90s then spike up into 05s looking for quick rejection of new swing high

and look what happened......


and why didnt i trade it? i popped out for 5mins for some lunch, you cld only have sold 4s, but a limit order wld've been filled. the 10tick target is reached already. tbh the PA congestion went on for a bit long, so I possibly wld have sat out anyway.

next areas still the same short @ 13-14s; long @ 80s.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

potential long setups 98s - but aint going to to take as needed it to spend more time higher (time & some space away from the level is preferrable for me).


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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: IB / IQfeed
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rosho01 View Post
potential long setups 98s - but aint going to to take as needed it to spend more time higher (time & some space away from the level is preferrable for me).

nice reaction off the 98s, but the lower highs (LHs) on the M5 wld have me worried - the trade r:r on setup doesnt look great with that prev PA which i should have noticed before posting the setup (though i did mention time & space).

its currently trading 2s & i wld have moved my SL to price entry. my TP on these intradays when PA is more congested & non directional wld always be 10 tick move (trading 2 lots - so 20tick profit if poss, with perhaps tighter stop).

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


rosho01 View Post
This looks nice buy area @ 80s esp as M5 has been making HHs & HLs & this area will fall cose to upper trend line on the M5....again will wait to see what happens (i need to have this as a signature hmm).




re sell set up: the failure of this upward move to make new swing highs at 99s is better for the potential sell i posted at 05s. i wld like price to hang around mid 90s then spike up into 05s looking for quick rejection of new swing high. if this doesnt happen, then 13-14s is my next sell area.

my analysis prob reads as v jumbled, my fault in explaining myself. i will look to summarise these over the weekend.

big bit of support at 90s, which if breaks wld be the TP for the 80s long - which isnt much room.......so i am out of this.

Edit: its broke & come down aggressively - which is what i like.....but i am leaving it.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

this was nice support prior @ 11.55 am (a great setup i missed), but the move away (space & time) is big which brings this back into play for a potential long.

lets wait & see. been some lovely PA in the bund today.

Edit: next setup shorts - if price stays late 70s/low 80s will look to sell @92s. time & space again.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


rosho01 View Post
this was nice support prior @ 11.55 am (a great setup i missed), but the move away (space & time) is big which brings this back into play for a potential long.

lets wait & see. been some lovely PA in the bund today.

nice huh......


guess what? didnt take it - cos of the bear flag i was concerned it wld push beyond 72s but nope -and the flag wld have been resistance so my TP wld have been tight......its now trading 87s! nice reaction, again.

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bundshakalaka
Athens,Greece
 
 
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Nice Journal,

Keep up the good work

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


bundshakalaka View Post
Nice Journal,

Keep up the good work

thks bundshakalaka.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

Sell: Am moving my sell zone posted earlier from 92s to 95-97.

Buy: No idea, nothing near current price. The next big level lower from prev days is around 30-36 which i like (as highlighted in my day preview charts).

If it breaks new day lows then I will wait for further PA to weigh up a long.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


rosho01 View Post
SWING TRADE 1: as mentioned earlier - a mistake. -10ticks.

SWING TRADE 2: +38ticks
SOLD 95s SL 00s BOUGHT 76s. Paid Didnt like the way PA travelled up to 90s, they traded a small & it came off 7 ticks, so was looking to sell above this hoping for a quick spike into the 90s Sold 95s.

SWING TRADE 3: +21ticks
BOUGHT 72s SL 66s SOLD 82/83.

Almost got stopped out on both, and had extended SL by 1 tick on the last trade which saved me. Poor entries on the second and should have moved it again due to the gradual trickle down into that area.

I scalped early this morning with 1 lot -5ticks.

+44 ticks (less commission).

This is my day target so the propensity is to be more selective - though logic is saying just continue to trade as normal regardless pnl.

i am calling it a day - a good day, i have not traded since this post....should i have done? that is the question.

i called 4 more good setup trades which all had less drawdown than my 2 winners, but rr was questionable on 2 of them, 3 of them would have reached TP.....these are the sort of stats i think cld be beneficial to my trading method, i need to get a stat sheet sorted.

heres my trade log....

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

heres the 'missed' trade of the day imo (hmm i need to set price alerts), i wld have entered on the first touch & though rr doesnt look great with potential supply just above the fact that the first retracement of the first swing down to the day lows (58s) was big (back to 99s / c75% rt) & quick the downtrend looked over, & this a reversal (in part).



have a nice w/e all.

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 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
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Trading: Bund
 
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A quality video (a little dated) of a bund trader with 'reasonable' size (iceberging it?).............

Reload - Tom_Dante's library

Iceberg orders are common in the bund now afaik, but not to this extent.

Edit: the vid is linked to a traders screencast acct who I dont know, not sure if this breaks any posting rules.

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 BenG 
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rosho01 View Post
Hi BenG, thanks for the kind words, its gd to know there are some FI traders about.

Are you trading spreads or outright? I dont have bobl or shatz charts or ladders up (IB plays up with more than 3 ladders, & you only get bid/offer quote if you want more) but i know they dont move much.

I wouldnt be too concerned about focusing only on STIRs, you may find you are more suited to other markets. If you get 6 months of live trading regardless the market with consistent results that should be enough to get backed by a prop firm, though the profit share maybe circa 50%.

It's not so much the issue of what market, I love trading STIRS, whether Euribor, Bund, Bobl or Shatz, they're all correlated anyway ( which is why it makes it very easy to spread). For me the main problem has been to get the initial start up capital in place which would allow me to trade it "live" in the first place. So that's what I'm currently working on,to get that together and go from there. I know there are more markets out there then I could possibly trade, however I would still have the same problem. Most brokers require at least $5k to open an account, or roughly 3.5k for us in the UK. In the meantime I could focus on FX, which is easily accessible and doesn't require such start up capital. I have traded both outrights and spreads, but prefer spreads. Spreading the Bund-Bobl is very nice indeed, although I quite like the slower paced futures, but it gives it less of a potential return (speculative). At the end of the day everything still comes down to how you trade, and how you manage your trades. If you can make a small profit everyday you trade then you're well on your way to make a decent living out of it.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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 rosho01 
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BenG View Post
It's not so much the issue of what market, I love trading STIRS, whether Euribor, Bund, Bobl or Shatz, they're all correlated anyway ( which is why it makes it very easy to spread). For me the main problem has been to get the initial start up capital in place which would allow me to trade it "live" in the first place. So that's what I'm currently working on,to get that together and go from there. I know there are more markets out there then I could possibly trade, however I would still have the same problem. Most brokers require at least $5k to open an account, or roughly 3.5k for us in the UK. In the meantime I could focus on FX, which is easily accessible and doesn't require such start up capital. I have traded both outrights and spreads, but prefer spreads. Spreading the Bund-Bobl is very nice indeed, although I quite like the slower paced futures, but it gives it less of a potential return (speculative). At the end of the day everything still comes down to how you trade, and how you manage your trades. If you can make a small profit everyday you trade then you're well on your way to make a decent living out of it.

yep sure, as you allude to though you can open a micro account at a spreadbetting firm with a couple of hundred pounds and trade outrights. this is enough to build your account, and enough to test yourself in a live environment. i guess you have tried signing up to prop firm training/grad courses.

i have not looked at a spread chart for ages, but iirc not long ago the bund rallied 80 ticks & the bobl didnt move, and a day later the bund dumped 50 ticks and the bobl was on its highs (8 ticks higher than its low). in effect you are trading outrights in this scenario even if you have a bund/bobl/schatz fly on. also the ecb will be buying across the curve (prob at different times) - which cld distort any correlation even more.

also theres these: https://www.topsteptrader.com:443/

i hope it works out for you, g/l.

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 rosho01 
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Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone (wow i am finding this a hard slog)
Elder Alexander - Trading For A Living
Jack D. Schwager - The New Market Wizards

but i may just reread this cos its a great book.....
Barbara T. Dreyfuss - Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster

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 rosho01 
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i mentioned in an earlier post that i was concerned my trade logic/reasonings may come across as gibberish, & that i would work on coming up with a more concise summary of exactly what i was thinking & why........but that is too easy for anyone reading. so i thought i wld do a q & a session tmrw with some examples of price movements, participants etc (which may come across in others opinions as BS); this will hopefully provide some background to my decision making. i knew from the start this thread will generate little interest but as per the OP this exercise will help me a lot, and anything else is a bonus.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

btw, re the earlier books post: i started reading The New Market Wizards & i was only a cpl of pages in when i came across these nuggets (my comments in italics):

"If your trading capital is too important, you will be doomed to a number of fatal errors" check

....

~"You will miss out on some of the best trading opportunities because these are often the most risky." i would like to stress, that imo there are plenty of good opportunities that are not that risky.....yet still i am over cautious.

~"You will jump out of perfectly good positions prematurely on the first sign of adverse price movement only to then see the market go in the anticipated direction." check

~"You will be too quick to take the first bit of profit because of concern that the market will take it away from you." check

ring any bells?

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 rosho01 
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This is a taster for what is to come tomorrow:

apologies for the retarded drawings, but it kinda presses the point that trading is not a science....PA often looks this bad!



questions for now:
~what is happening to price & participants?
~what 'type' of traders are in control?
~who are the weaker hands in this scenario?
~what are high & low probability trade setups in this scenario?
~what are the dangers of trading in this sort of pattern?
~how may time influence trading decisions within this sort of pattern?
~what other factors could be key in this pattern?

these posts are not definitive, they are products of my research. please please let me know if i am talking crap, i am more than happy to reevaluate.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post



questions for now:
~what is happening to price & participants?
price is consolidating / in range (equilibrium / found valueetc) between the upper & lower limits - basically participants are willing to buy & sell within these price bounds

~what 'type' of traders are in control?
range traders will be buying the lows/selling highs within this range. as time passes breakout traders will start entering. larger participants may be involved as liquidity pools cld be at top & bottom of these ranges.


~who are the weaker hands in this scenario?
participants selling the highs/buying the lows further along the range - weaker in the sense that as time passes & price repeatedly touches outer edges the chance of a breakout is increasing; entering mid range potentially will have lower rr


~what are high & low probability trade setups in this scenario?
high prob setups - trading the range early / trading breakout late; low prob - trading a breakout early / trading range late

~what are the dangers of trading in this sort of pattern?
problems/things to be careful of - as mentioned above - time is important; also number of touches to extreme - the greater the number of touches the more liquidity being absorbed at these levels? PA as price is close to the range limits; attempts at breakouts to increase liquidity / trigger stops?

~how may time influence trading decisions within this sort of pattern?
mentioned above a couple of times, but also on a breakout price can accelerate as stops are hit

~what other factors could be key in this pattern?
set ups on lower timeframes - may want see PA before entering or exiting eg 123s / wedges looking for a breakout to on the lows; support turns resistance etc; context - which isnt included here, what happened to price prior to the range? what is longer term picture - trending?; confluence - it this near a key level on higher timeframe etc?

this is all fairly basic stuff, make sense?

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
~what other factors could be key in this pattern?
context - which isnt included here, what happened to price prior to the range? what is longer term picture - trending?; confluence - it this near a key level on higher timeframe etc?

this is a gd example of context/confluence. prices ranged / consolidated for over an hour in a tight 8/9 tick range (yellow shaded area 90-98s) friday lunch - i saw some big orders going through (clip size 200+s).




I wasnt looking to range trade it or trade the breakout, the possible setups were decided by looking at the bigger picture.
~ on the upside i was looking for a breakout to find value a little higher, then go long on the retest looking for a push into the days highs.
~on the downside i was looking for a quick breakout into prev res at c80s area for a long.

price did breakout higher quite quick (after a fake BO in same direction) & the LHs (and not enough value being built higher - space) meant the quick retest into 98s invalidated this setup for me. it then travelled lower to the long setup area, bounced off 80s & looked like it might reach the TP but the low rr (i later mentioned this) with what looked like resistance area (the lows of the range) scared me off of this. also there was a little bear flag developing here.

it was close but neither of these materialised but i had a plan based on recent & developing PA, & it made sense, to me anyway!

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 rosho01 
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Good morning all.

Daily: Failed to close below the low of the bearish engulfing 157.90
Lower: see chart for levels of interest

Not much going on with figs today.

I have no bias, lets see what happens.



There are no clear levels on <H1 t/f's - just going to wait for the picture to develop/IB to extend before looking for entry levels.

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 rosho01 
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Possible sell setup at 92s (blue area), wld prefer some time (space) away from it with fairly quick retest into this area:



I have a feeling it may not even get up there, the 85-87 area perhaps where it will stall.....

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
Possible sell setup at 92s (blue area), wld prefer some time (space) away from it with fairly quick retest into this area:

I have a feeling it may not even get up there, the 85-87 area perhaps where it will stall.....

it has pushed through todays IB low, i am still 90-92 offered but i may be looking to sell lower at 80-81s level (nxt blue shaded area - which was prev support today on m5)......



lets see what happens.

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 rosho01 
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All very slow going!


Longs:
Bear flag developing round here on the 30min chart - which cld indicate price pushing fair bit lower, i have prev day levels below here @157.30-35 & 157.10-15.
If it can push through 66s, build some value a bit higher then a poss long at 66s.

Shorts:
The 90-92 offered still applies, but perhaps some better levels closer. 77-81s may be more ideal.

Need to look at these again if & when they come into play - how has price arrived, what does rr look like etc.

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 rosho01 
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poss sell area 65s (blue shaded area; ignore the MAs - i do!).......



bear flag m5?

its hard to get in on the short side with only small retracements - and v little momentum also.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
poss sell area 65s (blue shaded area; ignore the MAs - i do!).......

bear flag m5?

its hard to get in on the short side with only small retracements - and v little momentum also.

i sold 65s (1 lot) & scratched them (trading 63s as i type). dont like the PA - HHs & HLs; hanging around here too long - prefer quick spike; more value to be built lower; & the rr doesnt look great in such a slow moving mkt - it cld struggle to get through @57s, where i may indeed look for a long later (if value is find a little higher).

I am 79-81 offered at the moment.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
i sold 65s (1 lot) & scratched them (trading 63s as i type). dont like the PA - HHs & HLs; hanging around here too long - prefer quick spike; more value to be built lower; & the rr doesnt look great in such a slow moving mkt - it cld struggle to get through @57s, where i may indeed look for a long later (if value is find a little higher).

I am 79-81 offered at the moment.

failure to make new recent higher high on M5, was contemplating entering mkt to short but it was also struggling to make new LL (in last 20mins)....i think that can only mean one thing - nothing is happening (though the scalpers selling 65s & buying 64s have cleaned up)!

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
i sold 65s (1 lot) & scratched them (trading 63s as i type). dont like the PA - HHs & HLs; hanging around here too long - prefer quick spike; more value to be built lower; & the rr doesnt look great in such a slow moving mkt - it cld struggle to get through @57s, where i may indeed look for a long later (if value is find a little higher).

i am 57 bid (which i may adjust slightly, or even cancel, see how it goes).

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
i am 57 bid (which i may adjust slightly, or even cancel, see how it goes).

long 58s / SL 52s / TP70 (just traded 54s) - wasnt best entry, quite thin also, if it doesnt move away from here v quickly i may look to puke/scratch it early.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
long 58s / SL 52s / TP70 (just traded 54s) - wasnt best entry, quite thin also, if it doesnt move away from here v quickly i may look to puke/scratch it early.

stopped -12 ticks

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 Keab 
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Missed trade of the day-entry at 65-was waiting fro price to go a bit higher for a better entry short.
Result: see chart

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 rosho01 
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bootsyjam View Post
Missed trade of the day-entry at 65-was waiting fro price to go a bit higher for a better entry short.
Result: see chart

hi bootsyjam - so you drew the 65 line in after the RT up to 73s & required a small pullback into that? what is that entry based on?

i was offside for the whole of that trade pretty much hmm, but I liked the size of the retrace up & it took out the prev swing high (11am CET) even though it failed to close above it. and its failed to close below the days low on m5.

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 jawakow 
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Great journal, I trade Bund very similar using Tom's and James16 methodology, also using supply/demands zones for entry.

Not many Bund traders on futures.io (formerly BMT), I suppose .

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 rosho01 
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Great journal, I trade Bund very similar using Tom's and James16 methodology, also using supply/demands zones for entry.

Not many Bund traders on futures.io (formerly BMT), I suppose .

hi jawakow,

thks for kind comment, perhaps we can convert some into bund traders! as mentioned earlier & as you know - this PA works on anything, the bund though so far suits my style, & have been pleasantly surprised how well it trades using low t/f's....not sure how long this will last though.

most of my stuff was learnt from basic supply/demand theory which includes material from steve @ no brainer trades, tom & some others (all free resources), & i was lucky enough to join a skype room with some v gd fx traders, and they mentored me (again for free). as with toms style (not seen him trade bund though) - its all v simple, makes sense & provides context (ie what other particpants are doing).

g/l & feel free to contribute.

edit: just to clarify, simple does not mean easy! need loadsa of screen time, practice etc.

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 Keab 
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rosho01 View Post
hi bootsyjam - so you drew the 65 line in after the RT up to 73s & required a small pullback into that? what is that entry based on?

Hey rosho,
I trade very simply. Looking for 1-2-3 trades, and my reversal points are areas where ares on Cumulative Delta are beaten against the Delta (CD) direction.

So for that trade I was looking at the CD on Friday (rectangles to the left hand side) where if you look on the chart I've provided there were lots of traders who were trapped in their longs.

There were also traders trapped long on as indicated on the rectangles on the right hand side. This was not too strong a signal for 2 reasons:
1) MY CD wasn't switched on to see just how many were trapped-looked about 3000 but I didn't get to the office in time to switch on my PC!
2) It could be argued that the sharp move down from 72 to 50 may have taken care of these trapped traders.

However when price returns to these levels I get interested and look for size to come in on my chosen direction and then I'll enter.

Same goes for trades to the long side.

I don't trade reversals (at least I'm trying not to) as they're far harder to pick.

I liked the look of the reversal that just happened thanks to the exhaustion style volume on the CD, combined with some buying kicking in. Also, we're still in an uptrend (now that's important to remember!).

But reversals do my head in because they set me up mentally to be constantly looking for counter trend moves. The trading equivalent of trying to run uphill all the time! Hope that makes sense.

Oh yeah, whilst I'm a big fan of market/volume profile, I find that it sets my bias far too much. What i mean by that is: if price is at an area that is important on the profile, and I get my 1-2-3 signal then I won't take it. Which is stupid-I want to trade with what I see in front of me in terms of volume and order flow. Using profiles means that I don't.

When I become a better trader I might start using them again, but if I'm going to 'trade what I see' then profiles are out of the equation.

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 rosho01 
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Shorts:
The 90-92 offered still applies, but perhaps some better levels closer. 77-81s may be more ideal.

Need to look at these again if & when they come into play - how has price arrived, what does rr look like etc.

i sold 81s, & scratched them TP @ 69 - my selling areas here are a bit blurred, the lower level looked better on the hourly, but 85s & 91s look better entry areas on m5.

Longs: 56 bid. maybe looking for long @66-68, rr will prob restrict this trade though.

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 Keab 
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I'll be looking for a retrace to the 68/67 area and then seeing if buying kicks in around here...

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 Keab 
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Following on from my 67-68 retrace area comment:

Balls.
Balls.
Balls.

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 rosho01 
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i sold 81s, & scratched them TP @ 69 - my selling areas here are a bit blurred, the lower level looked better on the hourly, but 85s & 91s look better entry areas on m5.

Longs: 56 bid. maybe looking for long @66-68, rr will prob restrict this trade though.

Short 91 TP 79 SL97, its really struggling to retrace today so not holding much hope, may be getting out early.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
Short 91 TP 79 SL97, its really struggling to retrace today so not holding much hope, may be getting out early.

move SL to 94s; TP @ 80 & 79.

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 Keab 
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Hey Rosho,
You're spot on with your reversal levels-mind if I ask how you calculate them? I have a feeling it will be to do with profiles-doh!

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 rosho01 
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bootsyjam View Post
Hey Rosho,
You're spot on with your reversal levels-mind if I ask how you calculate them? I have a feeling it will be to do with profiles-doh!

i dont use profiles - the charts i post is all i use, I will look at higher t/fs eg M15, hourly & daily for context reminder.

like you i havent found profiles that easy - have looked at TPOs & VPs. Prefer keeping it simple at the moment, & i dont like to have bias.

The short 91s started off well, with gd move away & 81s trading, not so now its retraced back to 89s, if they fail to trade 91s again i wld consider averaging in.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
move SL to 94s; TP @ 80 & 79.

moved SL to 92s, the LH is pleasing. May struggle to push through 85s.

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 Keab 
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Toss a coin right now to guess direction

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
moved SL to 92s, the LH is pleasing. May struggle to push through 85s.

Paid 79/80. +23 ticks.

quite painful, had to do some reading so didnt talk myself out of it.

I have a feeling this will pop down to 68s but i needed to bank the money. might look to sell 85s.

someone in the room mentioned looks like someone is spreading against the bobl in size here.

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 Keab 
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rosho01 View Post
Paid 79/80. +23 ticks.

quite painful, had to do some reading so didnt talk myself out of it.

I have a feeling this will pop down to 68s but i needed to bank the money. might look to sell 85s.

someone in the room mentioned looks like someone is spreading against the bobl in size here.

Here's why they're dropping (I think)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-16/ecb-reports-only-%E2%82%AC97-billion-bond-purchases-first-full-week-q%E2%82%AC

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 rosho01 
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Paid 79/80. +23 ticks.

quite painful, had to do some reading so didnt talk myself out of it.

I have a feeling this will pop down to 68s but i needed to bank the money. might look to sell 85s.

ha, sigh had posn on for 1hour 25mins, 5 mins after i get out.....what shld have been my TP2 target 68s trade, then 63s trading. and i was tempted to average in when it bounced back up & with 3 lots on i wld def have let one run.

oh well, plan next trade areas.....

long @ 56s.
short @ 83s

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 rosho01 
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suppose could read this is bullish for bunds - they still need to do 50mn more this mth.

this info came out just after i went short, so over hour & a half ago.

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 Keab 
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Ah ok. The perils of too much info/using it to fit a trading idea!

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 rosho01 
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ha, sigh had posn on for 1hour 25mins, 5 mins after i get out.....what shld have been my TP2 target 68s trade, then 63s trading. and i was tempted to average in when it bounced back up & with 3 lots on i wld def have let one run.

oh well, plan next trade areas.....

long @ 56s.
short @ 83s

added chart....


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 rosho01 
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bootsyjam View Post
Ah ok. The perils of too much info/using it to fit a trading idea!

indeed!

it sucks - as per the article you posted, that ecb are not being more transparent with what they are doing.

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 rosho01 
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ha, sigh had posn on for 1hour 25mins, 5 mins after i get out.....what shld have been my TP2 target 68s trade, then 63s trading. and i was tempted to average in when it bounced back up & with 3 lots on i wld def have let one run.

oh well, plan next trade areas.....

long @ 56s.
short @ 83s

....was 81 offered, too slow to hit the bid. will stay in the offer for 1 lot, & maybe 83 offered for the other. looks like its been & gone though....also may look if it retests & fails to put in HH & 79s & short there.

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 rosho01 
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....was 81 offered, too slow to hit the bid. will stay in the offer for 1 lot, & maybe 83 offered for the other. looks like its been & gone though....also may look if it retests & fails to put in HH & 79s & short there.

TP 71s for this wld have been filled & thus set up is no longer.

No more clear short setups.

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 Keab 
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Price is stuck between a few levels right now. I don't fancy giving me broker lots of fat commissions dipping in and out...

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 rosho01 
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Am done for the day...

Scalp -3 ticks
Swing trade 1 -12 ticks
Swing trade 2 +23 ticks
Total for day +8 ticks (less commission - which is a lot).

Trade log attached.

Positives
~ read the market ok'ish (though most swings were v slow), read it well on the winning trade
~ 2 scratches which were good as dynamics did change.

Negatives
~as posted at the time, was contemplating averaging in when short @91 as it failed to make new high, but left it alone;
~poor first swing trade - though not sure i wld do much differently (need to back test similar setups more / look at swing sizes, acceleration into lows etc)
~when short 91s suspected price wld move to 68s (after it hugged low to mid 80s for a while), but banked both lots perhaps too early.
~missed good short opportunity at 81s late aft

Have a nice evening.

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 rosho01 
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bootsyjam View Post
Price is stuck between a few levels right now. I don't fancy giving me broker lots of fat commissions dipping in and out...

agree, just need to be patient for price to pop out, which it did.....& the long "long @ 56s" level looked good just then (57s went offered)......but too late in the day for me.

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 Keab 
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agree, just need to be patient for price to pop out, which it did.....& the long "long @ 56s" level looked good just then (57s went offered)......but too late in the day for me.

Not a bad day's trading-8 ticks is 8 ticks!
If you don't mind me asking, what's your commission on IB. Mine is $2 per side. Ouch.

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 rosho01 
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Not a bad day's trading-8 ticks is 8 ticks!
If you don't mind me asking, what's your commission on IB. Mine is $2 per side. Ouch.

same. moving to Amp futures - its 80ish cents. there is no real point getting into scalping regularly when its that expensive - it really is just daylight robbery. some days/periods scalp trades are better to do.

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donsouris
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Great stuf, i also trade the bund and your journal is very helpful.

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 rosho01 
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donsouris View Post
Great stuf, i also trade the bund and your journal is very helpful.

thank you, feel free to ask questions/post charts etc.

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 rosho01 
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Gd morning, as per prev days most of my trading occurs once the PA develops, & levels are noted but unlikely traded til further confirmation of PA. Again no bias, yest failed to close below the low of the prev day 'pin bar', cld be a pullback of longer term trend - who knows.

Heres hourly chart with areas of interest:



Be careful of any ECB bund buying today. Market opened just above yests close.

g/l.

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 rosho01 
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Shorts:
~I had the 82/84 level marked in but am bit averse to trading this early - it did come back for retest & failed to make HH which wld have been a gd entry though a tight rr with TP to 72s (which have traded a little since). This level is no longer valid.
~ 00s is nxt level up.

Longs: 72s is a small support (this just broke), shld be more support coming in @ 60-65s (albeit blurred) area. & around 50s level.

5 min chart attached.....


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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
Shorts:
~I had the 82/84 level marked in but am bit averse to trading this early - it did come back for retest & failed to make HH which wld have been a gd entry though a tight rr with TP to 72s (which have traded a little since). This level is no longer valid.
~ 00s is nxt level up.

Longs: 72s is a small support (this just broke), shld be more support coming in @ 60-65s (albeit blurred) area. & around 50s level.

5 min chart attached.....

nothing standing out - did a small scalp long 61s cos the rr was too low due to poss resistance back into bear flag 66s - 4/5 tick TP only, i paid 58s on 1 lot. -3 ticks (again to start the day).

drilling down to 1min chart though provides gd setup for a long just off the lows & wld have hit 10 tick TP (into the bear flag). chart attached.....



perhaps i shld drill down then if nothing is clear?

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 rosho01 
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Long: 60ish bid
Short: 85-87 offered

see how PA develops.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
Long: 60ish bid
Short: 85-87 offered

see how PA develops.

got ZEW out in 20mins, pulled orders.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
Long: 60ish bid
Short: 85-87 offered

see how PA develops.

nice reaction off the 61s (traded 150) - i pulled my 60bid after this, went 69 bid quite quick after.......



just too risky for me with the figs.

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 rosho01 
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nice reaction off the 61s (traded 150) - i pulled my 60bid after this, went 69 bid quite quick after.......



just too risky for me with the figs.

this trade held over those figs (which were largely unchanged) - luck? cld have lifted/put bid in the 60s if you were super sharp shooter on the mouse. but too close for me, i went in 55 bid for a little extension down cpl of mins after, nowhere close - just traded 79s (will post chart up later).

plan next trade & watch a vid on bond yields from yesterdays mkt.

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 rosho01 
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nice reaction off the 61s (traded 150) - i pulled my 60bid after this, went 69 bid quite quick after.......

just too risky for me with the figs.

short 79s setup as per 2nd arrow on attached chart - i didnt tag the level earlier cos PA was so congested in the target area - but it still made the 10 ticks fairly easy. nice confluence with the trendline.....




(first arrow up is the long 60/61s).

Waiting for the mkt to show its hand before reevaluating, for now.

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 Keab 
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Nice trading/commentary!
Have been flat all morning-looks like people are just pushing each other around in congested areas for my trades (different to what you look for obviously).

One thing I don't do, which I certainly should, is mark out the open price. First retrace back to that and things can tend to get interesting.

Thanks r.e. the AMP futures advice, have messaged them for total round trip costs i.e. including exchange fees etc.

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 rosho01 
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bootsyjam View Post
Nice trading/commentary!
Have been flat all morning-looks like people are just pushing each other around in congested areas for my trades (different to what you look for obviously).

One thing I don't do, which I certainly should, is mark out the open price. First retrace back to that and things can tend to get interesting.

Thanks r.e. the AMP futures advice, have messaged them for total round trip costs i.e. including exchange fees etc.

i didnt trade them - they were pontential setups, not sure if i need to get involved more....even when nothing happens the levels are there to scalp. instead i just scalped a 1 lot at mid price, made a mistake -7. idiot - was selling 63s cos had a feeling this may run. right, be patient, have done the research to suggest that not trading is the best option - either stick to it or become a scalper (a sh1te one)!

re the open price - of the day? am sure if it worked there wld be an algo already doing it - front running retail, & if there was there wld be an algo countering it. there also initial balance etc which ppl look for later res/support, but these really shld to be only a small part of a trading plan. i tend to ignore stuff like that, but what do i know.

nothing looks great at the moment til a move away for me, hung around these areas far too long for any clean PA to come from it.

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bundshakalaka
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well said rosho nothing to do today. Next level downside 33 below there things get interesting. And with these lower highs in the hourly doesnt look good for upside just yet

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 Keab 
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rosho01 View Post
i didnt trade them - they were pontential setups, not sure if i need to get involved more....even when nothing happens the levels are there to scalp. instead i just scalped a 1 lot at mid price, made a mistake -7. idiot - was selling 63s cos had a feeling this may run. right, be patient, have done the research to suggest that not trading is the best option - either stick to it or become a scalper (a sh1te one)!

re the open price - of the day? am sure if it worked there wld be an algo already doing it - front running retail, & if there was there wld be an algo countering it. there also initial balance etc which ppl look for later res/support, but these really shld to be only a small part of a trading plan. i tend to ignore stuff like that, but what do i know.

nothing looks great at the moment til a move away for me, hung around these areas far too long for any clean PA to come from it.

Ah good glad you didn't trade them-no more easy commissions for brokers!
I know what you mean, I've always struggled about not entering. I know deciding not be in the market is a trading decision as much as entering a position but it's hard.
One thing I read, or maybe I adapted it from a few sources is the following phrase. It really resonates more than the trading decision idea: "You are paid to wait for your set up to occur."
By trading less and waiting I tend to see the market more clearly that's for sure. Just entered a long (uhoh-reversal trade) on eurostoxx50)-made a couple of pips, nothing special, but by sitting back and waiting (because I get paid to wait) then for some reason I pick areas far better. Having said that i would've preferred to get in on the move lower but couldn't find an easy level to spot. But with hindsight....(as always).

R.e. the open price, of course it's not a 100% set up but it adds strength to a level if I'm interested in it. From market/volume profile I know that traders pay great attention to it as well as the opening range and if they're interested....

Eurgh just watching eurostoxx move even higher. Doh!

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 rosho01 
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bundshakalaka View Post
well said rosho nothing to do today. Next level downside 33 below there things get interesting. And with these lower highs in the hourly doesnt look good for upside just yet

descending triangle on the hourly. from friday. rising wedge on the M5 today.....in other words exactly what you said, not a lot going on.

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 rosho01 
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Just sold 76s on that spike & paid 67 & 66s +19 ticks. 65s was a v negligible reversal long, but cld see it wld struggle to get through there.

Will post chart in a bit. +8 for the day (-3;-7;+19), this incl commissions.

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bundshakalaka
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rosho01 View Post
descending triangle on the hourly. from friday. rising wedge on the M5 today.....in other words exactly what you said, not a lot going on.

Well we ve got FOMC tomorrow as well which could get more attention than usual. As for the last few days its always calm before the storm. ECB bought most of its German chunk the first days of the program. Everyone has a long mentality since last week. Now try to imagine the pain on the downside. This contract has pretty could history on stop searching

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 rosho01 
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bundshakalaka View Post
Well we ve got FOMC tomorrow as well which could get more attention than usual. As for the last few days its always calm before the storm. ECB bought most of its German chunk the first days of the program. Everyone has a long mentality since last week. Now try to imagine the pain on the downside. This contract has pretty could history on stop searching

where did you hear this? can you post a link, ta.

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 rosho01 
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rosho01 View Post
plan next trade & watch a vid on bond yields from yesterdays mkt.

was quite good vid (unfort i cannot share it due to copyright via a prop firm), but was explaining that yields have broken their 5 weeks range into new lows & retested the range lower limit - this caused a quick dump in the bund (near where i got stopped out yest) but when the retest failed & came off again the bund rallied 23+ ticks with little resistance. hmm, just need reuters now for this real time data.

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bundshakalaka
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rosho01 View Post
where did you hear this? can you post a link, ta.

PM me

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 rosho01 
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Just sold 76s on that spike & paid 67 & 66s +19 ticks. 65s was a v negligible reversal long, but cld see it wld struggle to get through there.

Will post chart in a bit. +8 for the day (-3;-7;+19), this incl commissions.




the reversal was a better trade poss - 66s never traded again. i dont normally trade 2nd time into supply area but with the slow go range day today i didnt think it was high risk. SL @ 80s above the last swing high.

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bundshakalaka
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where did you hear this? can you post a link, ta.

PM me

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 rosho01 
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was quite good vid (unfort i cannot share it due to copyright via a prop firm), but was explaining that yields have broken their 5 weeks range into new lows & retested the range lower limit - this caused a quick dump in the bund (near where i got stopped out yest) but when the retest failed & came off again the bund rallied 23+ ticks with little resistance. hmm, just need reuters now for this real time data.

any other bund (or other bond) traders look at yield levels on the intraday to trade the underlying (either as confluence or not)?

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 Keab 
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I'd like to (at least to investigate) but have no idea how to get it as a feed.

I believe this is the chart for it. Germany 10-Year Bond Yield - Investing.com UK

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 Keab 
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Cumulative Delta shows a lot of selling but price is not corresponding with similar drop in price.
Is not my type of trading in these sorts of positions but I expect price to break higher if (and that is IF) large buyers come into the market.

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  #95 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
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bootsyjam View Post
Cumulative Delta shows a lot of selling but price is not corresponding with similar drop in price.
Is not my type of trading in these sorts of positions but I expect price to break higher if (and that is IF) large buyers come into the market.

which just means market sell orders > market buy orders? to me, that doesnt mean much, even in conjunction with other factors.

being a cynic i wld expect (but dont know) there are algos, big participants (hedge funds etc) mixing up their mkt v limit orders, not necessarily purposely to screw up the delta graph, but that wld be a by product?

i need to look into footprint/vol delta etc more, not read enough on it.

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 Keab 
London UK
 
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Yeah is the difference between market buy/sell orders-so if a red bar on CD then more sellers than buyers by the amount indicated.

You're dead on, it's a snapshot of one part of the market as limit orders represent a huge (and hidden) driver so I don't use it as gospel. As I said in my post where I explain what I look for, I only use it to judge where large amounts of traders are trapped.
If you don't use it in your trading and are successful without it then I'd leave it alone, no point muddying the waters!
The thinking behind my comment r.e. lots of selling on cd without a drop in price shows the 'potentisal' (but only that) for the following scenario:
1) lots of sell market orders vs buys and price hasn't moved. Shows the existence of limit orders holding the price up. So if large buyers come in, the sell market orders are exhausted and will not act as a brake on prices moving higher.

OR
2) The sell market orders have eaten through the limit orders that have been propping the market up. If there is a concerted effort to the downside once again then prices should move dwon quickly.

As such it's dangerous to use it to open trades before the big guns have showed their hand. It provides (for me at least) a context for the move.

Here's what's going on right now (see chart). More selling. Price holding? Who will win?

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 Keab 
London UK
 
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In terms of trapped traders, the CD does provide an alternative view for the quick move down yesterday from 157.81 that (if I remember correctly) was to do with traders selling off as yields broke a 5 week low.
The CD shows something different (along with higher volume-will explain) and a different reason for this move.

I didn't spot this yesterday as I have my charts set to 500 ticks. It's good for spotting some things but harder to spot others-the trade yesterday was a glaring sell on the 5min but it was not as obvious on the 500tick so now have them side by side.

The chart shows 3 things (starting from the price at the top): A sharp move higher. This was accompanied by a strong spurt in CD. This was accompanied by a big spike in volume-clearly the majority of people are buying between 81-88.

Price then moves lower and beats the 81 area. Some traders will still be trapped, so when price returns to the 81 area then that's when I get interested as they will be selling to exit their position. This creates the initial move, and then traders like me jump on board to accelerate the move. That was a big moment for me, wondering why Support/Resistance exists-what is happening in the market to make it Support and Resistance? And the fact is that a lot of the big boys clearly don't trade with stops! They close their positions to as much to par/breakeven as they can when they;ve been proved wrong and price has moved against them. Otherwise-why else is price reacting like it does? People just hitting buy and sell because they are told that they are support and resistance? That's not a market/trading/supply and demand reason to move the market/provide liquidity etcetc.




Safe to say there has been b*gger all happening today for me on the Bund. It happens sometimes, but the day isn't over. And I get paid to wait!

Hope that clarifies things but like I said, you pick your levels very well, so if you're consistent with that then there's no point filling your head with an extra tool/bit of analysis.

In fact, having said that I apologise for this post if it muddies the waters and will happily delete. Just a bit bored waiting around for something to happen...

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  #98 (permalink)
 rosho01 
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bootsyjam View Post

In fact, having said that I apologise for this post if it muddies the waters and will happily delete. Just a bit bored waiting around for something to happen...

Post away as long as it includes a chart and sensible analysis then wld be gd to get some more contributors with slighty diff methods. Now if you turned up with a chart with 15 indicators and a cumulonimbus candlestick pattern entry signal we may need to chat .

Your explanation makes sense, will respond later, got stuff on. I may be done for the day, not at screens for another hour.

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  #99 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received

Trades:
scalp 1 -3 ticks
scalp 2 -7 ticks (wtf)
swing trade 1 +19 ticks

Total +8 ticks inc commission

Review
Positives: patience up to an extent, & when pulled the trigger was confident, even when it retraced (though had to leave my pc).
Negatives: made a mistake whilst trying to job a few ticks & cost me over 30% of my day - stop scalping? missed one good trade set up. cld be more aggressive with smaller size but have had losing first trade last 3 days....torn.

overall am confident with my methods, despite a few mistakes.

have a gd evening all.

(dont have access to my logs, can post tmrw if anyone asks/cares)

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  #100 (permalink)
 rosho01 
London/UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: IBs ladder / Market Delta charts
Broker: IB / IQfeed
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 438 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 260 given, 96 received


rosho01 View Post
Trades:
scalp 1 -3 ticks
scalp 2 -7 ticks (wtf)
swing trade 1 +19 ticks

Total +8 ticks inc commission

Review
Positives: patience up to an extent, & when pulled the trigger was confident, even when it retraced (though had to leave my pc).
Negatives: made a mistake whilst trying to job a few ticks & cost me over 30% of my day - stop scalping? missed one good trade set up. cld be more aggressive with smaller size but have had losing first trade last 3 days....torn.

overall am confident with my methods, despite a few mistakes.

have a gd evening all.

(dont have access to my logs, can post tmrw if anyone asks/cares)


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