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bund futures - intra day trading journal
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bund futures - intra day trading journal

  #1 (permalink)
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bund futures - intra day trading journal

hello

as with many other journal'ists i am doing this for my own benefit, whatever else comes from it is a bonus. BMs comments in the first post of the sticky in this section is admirably refreshing in its honesty (https://futures.io/trading-journals/222-benefits-creating-journal-forum.html#post1090), i need to do exactly the same & take account of my actions. i keep a basic journal, but am also hoping this will add detail to my trading which i can review each week. without being arrogant or complacent, most bits of the jigsaw are there - i have proved this before, i 'just' need to tighten the 'me' bit up again - knowing full well this is the hardest part.

a little context - i have traded futures for approx 10 years intermittently, spending cpl of those at prop firms trading spreads (STIRs / Oil cals). i have made some gd money trading & also lost a lot. i have had a break from trading for a few years, but in that time kept busy with - screen time; learning TA; reading a tonne of great threads as well as many poor ones; & dabbling unsuccessfully in FOPs. My main priority for the break though was for personal reasons, thankfully these are in the main behind me & my focus once again is on trading, & i am looking fwd to the challenge.

my trading fundamentals:
~use Interactive Brokers to clear, iqfeed for data & market delta charts. chart prices adjusted to smooth contract periods (continuous). i am looking at Amp futures to clear instead as its >50% cheaper to trade eurex. wld just like to add that i greatly appreciate the discounts received through futures.io (formerly BMT).
~markets: trading outright bund, eurostoxx & ES mini futures, with most volume in the bund. trading roughly 3-6 bund trades per day; 1 eurostoxx & snp. i have only been live trading these mkts for a few weeks, & paper traded them for a few weeks prior & have few years screen time watching these (& other) mkts.
~position size in all mkts is 2 lots max. i may scalp with 1 lots. occasionally when the level i am looking to trade is wide i may be entering with 2x1 lots at diff prices.
~targets & stops will vary with regards to market conditions (eg ranging; with or against trend; high/low vol), but in general: bund trdes will have approx SL 5 ticks, TP1 10 ticks, TP2 15 ticks & TP3 20 ticks. the occasional scalp will be tighter SLs/TPs. the TPs will be based on where i think price may struggle/consolidate/reverse according to PA, though i may use an indicator to add confluence to that.
~i do not trade over figures but may hold a position (if onside) prior to some figs with tight stop. obv dependent on which figs also.
~i will try & post trade entries as quickly after entry as poss, though its likely that by the time i post prices will differ to my entry as i try my hardest (though it doesnt always happen) to enter when expecting a quick reaction (coiling mkts etc). sorry. i will provide a view of what i may trade at the start of each day but am finding that i trade best after a the days market starts to take shape.
~when mkts are very volatile there maybe some delay in posting entry details, hopefully i can provide some pre &/or post analysis.
~i trade off technical analysis / price action mainly - support / resistance levels & esp pivot zones (not pivot points) where support turns to resistance (& vv). this may or may not encompass price patterns but these will not be prerequisite, minimal to zero indicators - perhaps if its not the best setup i may look for confluence. i am aware that institutions use indicators, & thus they can be gd reference tool. not really utilised market/vol profile/footprint yet though am feverishly reading up on them, & have enjoyed a few webinars mainly futurestrader71 (inc his daily preview).
~my style of trading is mixed - i will look for swing, continuation (trend) & scalping setups, i do have some parameters required to align before entering as a reminder, this rule may get broken when say intuition takes over but a bit of structure suits me....otherwise i will drive myself nuts questioning my intuition to a degree that its no longer intuitive or i never enter a trade.
~i will be aiming for strike rate of >=50% & hopefully pushing near 60% with risk:return of 1:>=2. this is loosely based on short time live & demo trading the bund.
~my orders are limit & mkt, & v occasionally stops. TPs will mainly be limit, though sometimes when the picture changes i may be hitting bid/lifting offer.
-unfortunately i am still unsure about using discretionary TPs, so i am keen to stick with a set TP of approx 10 ticks (with 15+ tick runners if the setup looks great ie trading w/ trend) for now, though it cld change on review after decent sample size of trades.
~no fixed daily targets or stops but will try & aim for avge 20-30ticks (20ticks/day woth SR=50% & total trades=4 in ranging mkt with rr 1:2 where TP 10 ticks; SL 5; posn size 2 lots) & stop for the day at no more than twice the days target & hopefully only 1 days target. key for me is consistent up days, & <=4-5 down days a month. i hope to hit couple of big up days per month. i am not going to go into stats too much.
~only trade 1 clip at moment, will look for 2-3 weeks of good results & up size to 3 lots.
~unlikely to trade the first 20mins of the day, nor the last few hours, and wont have overnights.
~will not fade day lows/highs unless strong prior day levels with confluence, or will wait for further confirmation to enter.
~ risk on each trade is approx 1-2% of account.

my strengths & weaknesses imo:
~i think i am quite good at reading market flow eg where intraday S&R is; where price may struggle/continue/reverse; & picking where price is about to accelerate into/away from levels. i obv do not try & predict where price will go next, but whereever it goes hopefully it will provide some opportunities which i am prepared for. this journal shld prove/disprove this.
~main weakness, as paradoxical as it may sound, is trading the above strength - this maybe cos: lack of (mainly)/over confidence - which can relate to upsizing or protecting profits et al; emotional trading; something else - this is what the journal is about i guess.
~also not sure how to deal with entering price too early eg say my buy entry is 50s with SL 45s & it pushes through to 45s but the trade still looks good - do i adjust my stop; or allow getting stopped out & wait for reenter (risk being stopped out twice at same level)? or do i need to leave that level alone now & work on entering better? or put 2x0.5 posn entries in around the level? i have widened stops when its a strong-with-trend move as TPs are larger. picking levels correctly & either being too late or early is testing experience, perhaps with solid results behind me i will be averaging into these. for now though i am only trading one clip.
~missing occasional trades due to needing to take a break from the screen to refresh the mind, or even just doing some admin at the desk. good setups occur at no particular set time across the day, so planning around this is futile.

some caveats:
~i may post the occasional off topic nonsense (though definitely no miracle of god testimonials) as a digression to the trading day.
~i may ditch this journal at anytime if i feel its negatively impacting my trading. i am realistic about the chances of making decent money consistently from trading and i want to give myself the best shot - this journal may or may not help the process, time will tell.
~if someone gets ad hom then i will just ignore (well will try to, though i may bite), but if you provide reasoned criticism then i will oblige to respond as best as poss. also if you are querying price or smthg pls provide context ie a chart will help.
~i may look to trade another main market to the bund if the ecb bond purchases adversely affect the market as i see/trade it - ie a steep long term rally with small retracements is not my idea of a great intra day market, though i will endeavour to try & work with the mkt flow & its main participants to best of my advantage. gotta love these central bank manipulated markets.
~i guess i will try not to edit posts stating entries for obvious reasons - will just update with a reply if market entry / exit is too quick to post near the time of that action.

journal format:
not sure how to do this, just need to get it started and will prob evolve from here. i am averse to posting a pre open chart with areas of interest as more often than not i dont trade them - i have been trading intra day price action mainly, if prev days levels come into the picture then i still wait for current day PA to provide a setup.

ultimately this will be about me trying to improve myself, i wld appreciate it if ppl cld read the thread before asking q's, i doubt this will be an epic, & expecting little interest with so few bund traders here by the looks of it.

i think this opening post is too long, sorry.

gl trading.

rosho

p.s.
attached is todays bund M5 chart to indicate some setups which i look for regularly. i will explain more in detail as trades get taken (or missed for whatever reason).


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-------------------------------------------------------------------
edit: heres a later post summarising more about entry/exit/SL/targets etc.....

https://futures.io/trading-journals/35155-bund-futures-intra-day-trading-journal-23.html#post487266


Last edited by rosho01; April 3rd, 2015 at 04:53 AM. Reason: add later post on method
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  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

I learnt most of what i am relaying here looking at fx charts, so dont feel left out if you dont like the bund, dont have access to it, or you are in a different timezone, & for that reason i am happy to discuss PA on another market (within reason).


Last edited by rosho01; March 14th, 2015 at 06:04 AM.
 
  #3 (permalink)
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13/03/15 preview


as mentioned before i havent traded prev day levels much, unless its major & will wait for additional PA confirmation anyway.

for reference though heres todays 'levels of interest' (prev support/resistance) & confluence as determined from daily & lower timeframes (i will refer to weekly charts occasionally):
158.30-35 (intraday fib 38)
158.48-52 (intraday fib 50)
157.70-74 (prev high daily also)
157.32-36 (big day range resistance)
157.10-17 (day fib 62)

minor/vague levels:
158.10-16
157.82-84
157.48-50 (day fib 50)

notes:
bear flag on hourly? upper level 158.24/lower 157.90?

day bias:
try not to have one, esp as ECB can step in at anytime. they have been buying from 9.20am (CET) for 2 days this week afaik. got a quick rally yest near this time - not sure if algos/institutions were front running. will be very tight on stops if a fade setup develops then.

chart H1 attached which highlights these.

gl trading.
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(chart times are CET btw)


Last edited by rosho01; March 13th, 2015 at 04:12 AM.
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  #4 (permalink)
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intraday

24s are prev support turned res, & upper limits of this range now 157.90-158.24s - not looking to sell lower than this at the moment, and if it retraces this far then will see how PA develops. i still prefer the 158.32s level for a sell, again it depends how it gets there.

if we stay below these lower levels for a decent amount of time then bias may swing to bearish & will look for other short setups as PA develops for larger potential r:rs.

the caveat with the bear flag is we are in long term up trend & breakout of sideways day range on the upside. oh and ecb are buying bund!

m5 chart (title 'H4' is wrong):
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Last edited by rosho01; March 13th, 2015 at 04:44 AM.
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  #5 (permalink)
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possible trade setups

trading 101 - dont leave orders in market - IB booktrader is quite cumbersome & i had buy orders in below where i wanted to enter (70-74)so i can adjust/lift offers if quick entry is required & was looking making notes got filled & stopped in quick succession. -10 ticks.

attached long & short trade set ups (sell 90s / buy 70s) - the quick
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Last edited by rosho01; March 13th, 2015 at 05:59 AM.
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  #6 (permalink)
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i took the first 2 swing trades as per prev post, will update later.

heres another potential (3rd arrow) - it has already got up to 89s & back to 83s so i think i missed this boat unfortunately, though if it struggles to get back up to 90s i may look to hit the
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  #7 (permalink)
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Swing trades so far:

SWING TRADE 1: as mentioned earlier - a mistake. -10ticks.

SWING TRADE 2: +38ticks
SOLD 95s SL 00s BOUGHT 76s. Paid Didnt like the way PA travelled up to 90s, they traded a small & it came off 7 ticks, so was looking to sell above this hoping for a quick spike into the 90s Sold 95s.

SWING TRADE 3: +21ticks
BOUGHT 72s SL 66s SOLD 82/83.

Almost got stopped out on both, and had extended SL by 1 tick on the last trade which saved me. Poor entries on the second and should have moved it again due to the gradual trickle down into that area.

I scalped early this morning with 1 lot -5ticks.

+44 ticks (less commission).

This is my day target so the propensity is to be more selective - though logic is saying just continue to trade as normal regardless pnl.


Last edited by rosho01; March 13th, 2015 at 09:39 AM. Reason: shite arithmetic
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  #8 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
heres another potential (3rd arrow) - it has already got up to 89s & back to 83s so i think i missed this boat unfortunately, though if it struggles to get back up to 90s i may look to hit the bid

yep - that was the one opportunity, its done its target also which would have been 79s & possibly let it run down into the previous PA as per the chart. Sometimes you have to hit the bid on these, its going with trend also, though PA is little more congested. this is the dilemma - sometimes i like for it to move away then retest & fail - wld be great if cld identify which are likely to happen when, though unlikely.

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bit choppy today, its back to 90s. not working anything til the pic becomes clearer.

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  #9 (permalink)
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Trade setup

Next area for sell is up at 05s, but i would like price to stay around the 80s level for longer before travelling back up there, there has been some strong rejections at 70s now which makes me question the strength of the down trend & value (as i see it) is creeping higher.

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Cannot see any buy levels at the moment.

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Hi Rosho, nice to see someone making a Bund journal. I hope all will work out as desired. It's been a hard battle trying to get backed with no "live" STIRS trading experience for me, so I'm currently working towards getting enough capital together to trade for myself. I have been trading Bund, Bobl, Shatz and Euribor in sim before with orderflow, both outright, spread and flys, so no charts etc. I look forward following your journey

Don't let money control you, control money!
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