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To explain the reasoning behind the bund short:
First chart is the 2 hour volume profile. The area that is circled is the VP of the first 2 hours of trading (the europe session at 7am GMT and then the London open at 8am GMT).
The thin blue line is the POC.
Second chart is a 15 min chart with Daily Volume Profile
3rd chart is 30 min chart with 5 day volume profile.
What I always look at with all these profiles together is simple-where were people NOT interested in trading?
The Volume Profile on the daily and 5 day composite shows this quite clearly, and when the area was confirmed with pin bars on the 15 and 30 min (a pinbar=a sharp rejection of an area) then that is enough for a short.
The 2 hour volume profile shows that most contracts were traded at the top end of the range. Combined with the pin bar, that was enough to short it. Sadly unfilled!
Conversely, on eurostoxx this morning, the trade didn't play out as I wanted.
First chart is 2 hour volume profile. Where did the price not want to trade? Lower. Also, the POC shows contracts traded at 3694-the lower end.
Then, on the 15/30 min charts (30 min not posted)-there were pinbars during the 2 hour period in the chart above that showed rejection of an area. So I exited with a few points profit, and if i was a truly dispassionate robot trader, would have entered long as my premise was shown to be incorrect.
Doh!
If I'm hijacking your journal and distracting you then please let me know-no hard feelings.
I should also add that if I was a robot trader, I would be looking for an excuse to go long the eurostoxx as price rotates down to the 2 hour VPOC as price should go lower and bounce off the VPOC opening balance which is apparently a vital period that everyone looks at.
But I'm not a robotic trader-if only...
Thanks for the yield chart-is a good confirmation tool.
nice logical analysis, post away, as mentioned always gd to have alternative views, & see others trading styles - wld be silly of me to discount different ways of trading.
as for distracting me - as you can see with number of posts today the bund isnt doing a lot!
-----------------------------
sells:
i am still offered @ 08s as although the 10 tick TP wld have been filled had i been fast enough, this selling area is still valid - however the dtl has been broken & if it trades above 08s then thats a new swing HH - so will have to reevaluate if it gets back up there.
...on the descending tl - puked them at 10s (-15 ticks; back down to 2 lot size now). poorish entry, maybe needed to wait for new low in the day to trade that. first down arrow on chart.
then 10mins later just sold 10s after weakness on the 5min chart & this area is gd supply zone & dbl top, & what looked like exhaustion at the top - though it went 13 bid so my entry not great & little nervy selling so close to the top after consolidaiton around that level. second down arrow on chart.
Looking for a fairly quick pull away from this area to have confidence in the trade & then maybe add. going to find some support @ 05s area, push through here & 00s are first target.
stopped out @ 16s (slipped a tick -10 ticks). no rt at all - traded 5s v small then went bid - was happy for it to make a triple top to see what happened but it shot through soon after. not sure if shld have scratched that or not.
Short the bund from 159.11.
Combination of things-declining delta showing a lack of buying interest+increase in selling interest.
Price is at the very top of 5 day and 10 day volume profiles which implies that they may be auctioning too high for buyers to be interested.
Sellers came into the delta and gave me a signal that limit orders had dried up as the selling on the delta was combined with a corresponding engulfing price bar.
Finally, on the 2 hour volume profile, the VPOC was showing as at the very top of the profile. This has since shifted lower, but was a good signal of where people were positioning themselves and where price did not want to hang around. Also, the 2 hour bar shows good volume-quite important as I want a lot of traders to be pushing the price around-not very significant is overall volume is weak.
But we are still in an uptrend so I will be watching closely.
And as in my previous posts all that selling delta could turn into a very quick move higher if it is beaten and people have to close out their open short positions (assuming they are short positions and the delta shows that they are selling to close and take profits).
i liked the look of that area as 10s were support but the bounce was lessening each time. the 03s was gd demand area for me & the amt bought @ 5s when the US int rate news just came out looks like they stopped themselves out @02s & 01s.....gd opportunity to get into the 01s, but all happened so fast.
Good reversal area rosh-hope you got in? I exited at +2 when price retraced back higher-not looking like a good decision but I don't like trading against the trend too much. I find profit taking the hardest part of trading-never seem to get it right-if I get out early then price continues, and if I stay in then pricer always seems to reverse!
My profit level was a few pips higher than the open as if this is the move I am expecting I expect it to make it there.
