this is a gd example of context/confluence. prices ranged / consolidated for over an hour in a tight 8/9 tick range (yellow shaded area 90-98s) friday lunch - i saw some big orders going through (clip size 200+s).
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I wasnt looking to range trade it or trade the breakout, the possible setups were decided by looking at the bigger picture.
~ on the upside i was looking for a breakout to find value a little higher, then go long on the retest looking for a push into the days highs.
~on the downside i was looking for a quick breakout into prev res at c80s area for a long.
price did breakout higher quite quick (after a fake BO in same direction) & the LHs (and not enough value being built higher - space) meant the quick retest into 98s invalidated this setup for me. it then travelled lower to the long setup area, bounced off 80s & looked like it might reach the TP but the low rr (i later mentioned this) with what looked like resistance area (the lows of the range) scared me off of this. also there was a little bear flag developing here.
it was close but neither of these materialised but i had a plan based on recent & developing PA, & it made sense, to me anyway!
Last edited by rosho01; March 15th, 2015 at 12:51 PM.
Reason: dont know what day of week it is
Longs: Bear flag developing round here on the 30min chart - which cld indicate price pushing fair bit lower, i have prev day levels below here @157.30-35 & 157.10-15.
If it can push through 66s, build some value a bit higher then a poss long at 66s.
The 90-92 offered still applies, but perhaps some better levels closer. 77-81s may be more ideal.
Need to look at these again if & when they come into play - how has price arrived, what does rr look like etc.
i sold 65s (1 lot) & scratched them (trading 63s as i type). dont like the PA - HHs & HLs; hanging around here too long - prefer quick spike; more value to be built lower; & the rr doesnt look great in such a slow moving mkt - it cld struggle to get through @57s, where i may indeed look for a long later (if value is find a little higher).
failure to make new recent higher high on M5, was contemplating entering mkt to short but it was also struggling to make new LL (in last 20mins)....i think that can only mean one thing - nothing is happening (though the scalpers selling 65s & buying 64s have cleaned up)!