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bund futures - intra day trading journal
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bund futures - intra day trading journal

  #31 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
~what other factors could be key in this pattern?
context - which isnt included here, what happened to price prior to the range? what is longer term picture - trending?; confluence - it this near a key level on higher timeframe etc?

this is a gd example of context/confluence. prices ranged / consolidated for over an hour in a tight 8/9 tick range (yellow shaded area 90-98s) friday lunch - i saw some big orders going through (clip size 200+s).

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I wasnt looking to range trade it or trade the breakout, the possible setups were decided by looking at the bigger picture.
~ on the upside i was looking for a breakout to find value a little higher, then go long on the retest looking for a push into the days highs.
~on the downside i was looking for a quick breakout into prev res at c80s area for a long.

price did breakout higher quite quick (after a fake BO in same direction) & the LHs (and not enough value being built higher - space) meant the quick retest into 98s invalidated this setup for me. it then travelled lower to the long setup area, bounced off 80s & looked like it might reach the TP but the low rr (i later mentioned this) with what looked like resistance area (the lows of the range) scared me off of this. also there was a little bear flag developing here.

it was close but neither of these materialised but i had a plan based on recent & developing PA, & it made sense, to me anyway!


Last edited by rosho01; March 15th, 2015 at 01:51 PM. Reason: dont know what day of week it is
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  #32 (permalink)
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Morning review

Good morning all.

Daily: Failed to close below the low of the bearish engulfing 157.90
Lower: see chart for levels of interest

Not much going on with figs today.

I have no bias, lets see what happens.

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There are no clear levels on <H1 t/f's - just going to wait for the picture to develop/IB to extend before looking for entry levels.


Last edited by rosho01; March 16th, 2015 at 04:21 AM. Reason: add lower t/fs
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  #33 (permalink)
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Sell setup....


Possible sell setup at 92s (blue area), wld prefer some time (space) away from it with fairly quick retest into this area:

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I have a feeling it may not even get up there, the 85-87 area perhaps where it will stall.....

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  #34 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
Possible sell setup at 92s (blue area), wld prefer some time (space) away from it with fairly quick retest into this area:

I have a feeling it may not even get up there, the 85-87 area perhaps where it will stall.....

it has pushed through todays IB low, i am still 90-92 offered but i may be looking to sell lower at 80-81s level (nxt blue shaded area - which was prev support today on m5)......

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lets see what happens.

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  #35 (permalink)
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Thoughts as PA develops.....

All very slow going!


Longs:
Bear flag developing round here on the 30min chart - which cld indicate price pushing fair bit lower, i have prev day levels below here @157.30-35 & 157.10-15.
If it can push through 66s, build some value a bit higher then a poss long at 66s.

Shorts:
The 90-92 offered still applies, but perhaps some better levels closer. 77-81s may be more ideal.

Need to look at these again if & when they come into play - how has price arrived, what does rr look like etc.

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  #36 (permalink)
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New sell setup?

poss sell area 65s (blue shaded area; ignore the MAs - i do!).......

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bear flag m5?

its hard to get in on the short side with only small retracements - and v little momentum also.

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  #37 (permalink)
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Update on PA


rosho01 View Post
poss sell area 65s (blue shaded area; ignore the MAs - i do!).......

bear flag m5?

its hard to get in on the short side with only small retracements - and v little momentum also.

i sold 65s (1 lot) & scratched them (trading 63s as i type). dont like the PA - HHs & HLs; hanging around here too long - prefer quick spike; more value to be built lower; & the rr doesnt look great in such a slow moving mkt - it cld struggle to get through @57s, where i may indeed look for a long later (if value is find a little higher).

I am 79-81 offered at the moment.

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  #38 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
i sold 65s (1 lot) & scratched them (trading 63s as i type). dont like the PA - HHs & HLs; hanging around here too long - prefer quick spike; more value to be built lower; & the rr doesnt look great in such a slow moving mkt - it cld struggle to get through @57s, where i may indeed look for a long later (if value is find a little higher).

I am 79-81 offered at the moment.

failure to make new recent higher high on M5, was contemplating entering mkt to short but it was also struggling to make new LL (in last 20mins)....i think that can only mean one thing - nothing is happening (though the scalpers selling 65s & buying 64s have cleaned up)!

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  #39 (permalink)
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Long setup 57s


rosho01 View Post
i sold 65s (1 lot) & scratched them (trading 63s as i type). dont like the PA - HHs & HLs; hanging around here too long - prefer quick spike; more value to be built lower; & the rr doesnt look great in such a slow moving mkt - it cld struggle to get through @57s, where i may indeed look for a long later (if value is find a little higher).

i am 57 bid (which i may adjust slightly, or even cancel, see how it goes).

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  #40 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
i am 57 bid (which i may adjust slightly, or even cancel, see how it goes).

long 58s / SL 52s / TP70 (just traded 54s) - wasnt best entry, quite thin also, if it doesnt move away from here v quickly i may look to puke/scratch it early.

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