Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
this guy used to trade at futex, not entirely sure how he is manipulating the market - algos fill the order book up all the time. his orders were there for the taking. surely its the algos which caused the flash crash not someone legitimately willing to do prices.
wow, so the bund traded >50 tick range and beyond by breaking the 1pt barrier, when i started looking at the bund a few mths back the atr was ~0.80pts so such moves were still fairly prevelant, being shocked by a day like yest reminds you of how much the mkt has changed since then.
why such a big move? well there were some key levels broken on the downside in a lot of FI markets (inc 'safe' bonds eg tnote, gilt, bund), cld be profit taking, cld be more speculating on the short side, cld be transferring to risk on assets/periphery bonds (which went up). the bill gross comment about the bund being the biggest short is another classic prediction without giving time horizons, though it did come out 2 days ago, was it a short term trade suggestion when you have the ecb buying til the yield gets to -0.2?.....
(some approximations)
curr yield: 0.158
yield at yest high 0.09
yield at yest low 0.168
so the 1.1pt move equated to a 0.078 increase in yield. the ecb said they wld continue buying up to -0.2 yield, (0.358 lower) which wld put the bund ~4.5pts higher than today using yests figs (though this looks erroneous it is prob more like 161.50 ish area using avge figs) so is there room for maneouvre on the upside? of course. but the short term trend is down for now.
yest trading - i didnt do much in the bund bar scratch a cpl of shorts (near the top ha), & ended up small down. i certainly wasnt tempted to step into a train by fading. there was one gd short opportunity @ 159.59 which i called but was too slow to get orders in & within seconds it was 10 ticks onside, 30 ticks onside minutes later. it was about the only bit of support turned res i cld see on the 5min after the fig & the stops through to 159.21.
am playing it easy this morning, but lets hope the volatility remains. heres the daily (notice the volume still not exactly large) & hourly for some levels:
did 2 trades as per first 2 arrows.....
bought 40s sold 35s -10 ticks
sold 47s bought 52s -10 ticks
-20 for the day. down to half size. 2 probs with these trades - it was shaping up to be ranging day after yest - and playing long trade not far off the top was stupid. also trading at lunch time - can move through prices with so little vol trading.
3rd arrow was missed trade which i bottled taking cos of my 1st 2 losing trades.
Was very busy with other stuff, the one trade i did today was selling 23s and paid 15s for +8ticks. it was on the durable goods figure & bund had a little spike up into ok res area & trendline on 5min after making a LL. target was 13s orig which was perhaps a little too optimistic so pushed it up a little, though 13s did trade eventually. there was no drawdown (i dont think- i didnt see it go bid but my platform is pretty slow so it may have).
