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yest was inside day doji, narrow range, after a pin bar - indecision and a possible top in the mkt or just nothing much going on yest / overbought briefly the fri? i wld prob go with the latter.
attached hourly chart with some levels marked.
noticeable descending triangle.....will be looking for breakouts either way (it broke ou on open but failed to close above on 5min) & retest (& failure) on lower t/f chart for entry, see if any other setups come into play.
Have been doing some thinking over the last few days.
One thing that holds day traders like us back is that we trade every day, yet that automatically makes the assumption that every day is as good as any other for trading.
So the days that go well are then held back by handing back profits on days that are not so good for trading. My blog explains my reasoning behind my eurostoxx (and bund) set up this morning, and it's a good example of when it is good to trade (for me at least) . Bell curve days (narrow range) are one of the best as breakouts tend to occur with force the day after for the reasons that I go into. Treating every day like the day after a bell curve day (or whatever day is suited to your system) is most likely a mistake on our part?
What i mean by that is-I understand (I think) why the days after a bell curve day are good for trading for me. I can predict with greater certainty how prices will react, and why. Same with a few other volume profile set ups.
Should I/we just be trading one these days, and in greater size?
Improving as a trader then means getting to know more set ups, understanding how and why they work, and trading these in line with bell curve set ups/others. And just staying away if these conditions are not met.
good post bootsyjam - agree with it all pretty much, its good to have hypotheses - ideally more than one (@futurestrader71 is very good at that!) but i think the key is to also be very flexible with it....which may mean dumping your view straight away & possible reversing posns if they fit your setup.
for instance - yesterday was hardly any economic data out & monday - so i traded half size. though it was an experienced trader who gave me the nod on this so its smthg i/we shld def be working on. seems like common sense but easy to lose sight of this.
as for trading greater size on other days - well i guess if it looks like up trend/trend day in the stoxx & you are alr long then getting long again is obv what a lot of the v best traders do, but all within decent MM parameters from the ones i know, & unlikely they are long initially full clip size.
Yeah that's my next step, learning more VP set ups. I have a few profiles that give me high next day probabilities. Combine that with 3-5 day profile composites for support/resistance, maybe that's enough. Well, for now...
perhaps be careful on those next day probabilities - have read somewhere that they are a bit dated. price action imo is the best 'indicator' to use for a feel for what the current/next 'session' will be, couple that with experience, screen time, knowledge of that mkt & thats where build hte context & from that you will be reversing/puking/adding to the posns (& varying these) depending on what is unfolding. the trend/trend today (which someone mentioned on a live feed) in the stoxx is gd for one pullback only & then it all changes - but the PA at the top today told you that first, no?
the stat i like is the approx 80% of the time its ranging, 20% trending.
The VP gives me the idea, then the price action gives me the signal. Eurostoxx worked well this morning as it opened outside of/above the range yesterday and went higher from there so those trapped sellers had no choice but to get out fast. So I have the idea that it's going to be a strong open, then see price move to confirm it and I'm in.
The eurostoxx short is where I need more work. Had the area laid out as one of resistance thanks to 5 day cumulative VP profile (see chart). However, once that price level is reached, I still don't know what (if anything) the Dom can tell me regarding price direction. Looking at the 15 min, the POC shifted to the top, so a short could have been entered with this as your ceiling. Seem to remember that it was v close to the big German news so hindsight in this case is a wonderful thing, as I was looking to go short, saw the time with 15 mins to go before the announcement so decided to stay out.
