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bund futures - intra day trading journal
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bund futures - intra day trading journal

  #21 (permalink)
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Remainder setups for the day....

Sell: Am moving my sell zone posted earlier from 92s to 95-97.

Buy: No idea, nothing near current price. The next big level lower from prev days is around 30-36 which i like (as highlighted in my day preview charts).

If it breaks new day lows then I will wait for further PA to weigh up a long.

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  #22 (permalink)
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todays trades


rosho01 View Post
SWING TRADE 1: as mentioned earlier - a mistake. -10ticks.

SWING TRADE 2: +38ticks
SOLD 95s SL 00s BOUGHT 76s. Paid Didnt like the way PA travelled up to 90s, they traded a small & it came off 7 ticks, so was looking to sell above this hoping for a quick spike into the 90s Sold 95s.

SWING TRADE 3: +21ticks
BOUGHT 72s SL 66s SOLD 82/83.

Almost got stopped out on both, and had extended SL by 1 tick on the last trade which saved me. Poor entries on the second and should have moved it again due to the gradual trickle down into that area.

I scalped early this morning with 1 lot -5ticks.

+44 ticks (less commission).

This is my day target so the propensity is to be more selective - though logic is saying just continue to trade as normal regardless pnl.

i am calling it a day - a good day, i have not traded since this post....should i have done? that is the question.

i called 4 more good setup trades which all had less drawdown than my 2 winners, but rr was questionable on 2 of them, 3 of them would have reached TP.....these are the sort of stats i think cld be beneficial to my trading method, i need to get a stat sheet sorted.

heres my trade log....

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bund futures - intra day trading journal-log-book-130315.png  
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  #23 (permalink)
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missed trade of the day


heres the 'missed' trade of the day imo (hmm i need to set price alerts), i wld have entered on the first touch & though rr doesnt look great with potential supply just above the fact that the first retracement of the first swing down to the day lows (58s) was big (back to 99s / c75% rt) & quick the downtrend looked over, & this a reversal (in part).

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have a nice w/e all.

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  #24 (permalink)
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mr bid - one for volume footprint 'ers?

A quality video (a little dated) of a bund trader with 'reasonable' size (iceberging it?).............

Reload - Tom_Dante's library

Iceberg orders are common in the bund now afaik, but not to this extent.

Edit: the vid is linked to a traders screencast acct who I dont know, not sure if this breaks any posting rules.

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  #25 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
Hi BenG, thanks for the kind words, its gd to know there are some FI traders about.

Are you trading spreads or outright? I dont have bobl or shatz charts or ladders up (IB plays up with more than 3 ladders, & you only get bid/offer quote if you want more) but i know they dont move much.

I wouldnt be too concerned about focusing only on STIRs, you may find you are more suited to other markets. If you get 6 months of live trading regardless the market with consistent results that should be enough to get backed by a prop firm, though the profit share maybe circa 50%.

It's not so much the issue of what market, I love trading STIRS, whether Euribor, Bund, Bobl or Shatz, they're all correlated anyway ( which is why it makes it very easy to spread). For me the main problem has been to get the initial start up capital in place which would allow me to trade it "live" in the first place. So that's what I'm currently working on,to get that together and go from there. I know there are more markets out there then I could possibly trade, however I would still have the same problem. Most brokers require at least $5k to open an account, or roughly £3.5k for us in the UK. In the meantime I could focus on FX, which is easily accessible and doesn't require such start up capital. I have traded both outrights and spreads, but prefer spreads. Spreading the Bund-Bobl is very nice indeed, although I quite like the slower paced futures, but it gives it less of a potential return (speculative). At the end of the day everything still comes down to how you trade, and how you manage your trades. If you can make a small profit everyday you trade then you're well on your way to make a decent living out of it.

Don't let money control you, control money!
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  #26 (permalink)
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BenG View Post
It's not so much the issue of what market, I love trading STIRS, whether Euribor, Bund, Bobl or Shatz, they're all correlated anyway ( which is why it makes it very easy to spread). For me the main problem has been to get the initial start up capital in place which would allow me to trade it "live" in the first place. So that's what I'm currently working on,to get that together and go from there. I know there are more markets out there then I could possibly trade, however I would still have the same problem. Most brokers require at least $5k to open an account, or roughly £3.5k for us in the UK. In the meantime I could focus on FX, which is easily accessible and doesn't require such start up capital. I have traded both outrights and spreads, but prefer spreads. Spreading the Bund-Bobl is very nice indeed, although I quite like the slower paced futures, but it gives it less of a potential return (speculative). At the end of the day everything still comes down to how you trade, and how you manage your trades. If you can make a small profit everyday you trade then you're well on your way to make a decent living out of it.

yep sure, as you allude to though you can open a micro account at a spreadbetting firm with a couple of hundred pounds and trade outrights. this is enough to build your account, and enough to test yourself in a live environment. i guess you have tried signing up to prop firm training/grad courses.

i have not looked at a spread chart for ages, but iirc not long ago the bund rallied 80 ticks & the bobl didnt move, and a day later the bund dumped 50 ticks and the bobl was on its highs (8 ticks higher than its low). in effect you are trading outrights in this scenario even if you have a bund/bobl/schatz fly on. also the ecb will be buying across the curve (prob at different times) - which cld distort any correlation even more.

also theres these: https://www.topsteptrader.com/

i hope it works out for you, g/l.


Last edited by rosho01; March 14th, 2015 at 08:35 AM. Reason: add TST link
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  #27 (permalink)
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Trading related books i have open at the moment....

Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone (wow i am finding this a hard slog)
Elder Alexander - Trading For A Living
Jack D. Schwager - The New Market Wizards

but i may just reread this cos its a great book.....
Barbara T. Dreyfuss - Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster

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  #28 (permalink)
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price action Q&A tmrw (between me & myself!)

i mentioned in an earlier post that i was concerned my trade logic/reasonings may come across as gibberish, & that i would work on coming up with a more concise summary of exactly what i was thinking & why........but that is too easy for anyone reading. so i thought i wld do a q & a session tmrw with some examples of price movements, participants etc (which may come across in others opinions as BS); this will hopefully provide some background to my decision making. i knew from the start this thread will generate little interest but as per the OP this exercise will help me a lot, and anything else is a bonus.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

btw, re the earlier books post: i started reading The New Market Wizards & i was only a cpl of pages in when i came across these nuggets (my comments in italics):

"If your trading capital is too important, you will be doomed to a number of fatal errors" check

....

~"You will miss out on some of the best trading opportunities because these are often the most risky." i would like to stress, that imo there are plenty of good opportunities that are not that risky.....yet still i am over cautious.

~"You will jump out of perfectly good positions prematurely on the first sign of adverse price movement only to then see the market go in the anticipated direction." check

~"You will be too quick to take the first bit of profit because of concern that the market will take it away from you." check

ring any bells?


Last edited by rosho01; March 14th, 2015 at 07:39 PM.
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  #29 (permalink)
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PA Q&A taster

This is a taster for what is to come tomorrow:

apologies for the retarded drawings, but it kinda presses the point that trading is not a science....PA often looks this bad!

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questions for now:
~what is happening to price & participants?
~what 'type' of traders are in control?
~who are the weaker hands in this scenario?
~what are high & low probability trade setups in this scenario?
~what are the dangers of trading in this sort of pattern?
~how may time influence trading decisions within this sort of pattern?
~what other factors could be key in this pattern?

these posts are not definitive, they are products of my research. please please let me know if i am talking crap, i am more than happy to reevaluate.

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  #30 (permalink)
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PA Q&A taster - response



rosho01 View Post

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questions for now:
~what is happening to price & participants?
price is consolidating / in range (equilibrium / found valueetc) between the upper & lower limits - basically participants are willing to buy & sell within these price bounds

~what 'type' of traders are in control?
range traders will be buying the lows/selling highs within this range. as time passes breakout traders will start entering. larger participants may be involved as liquidity pools cld be at top & bottom of these ranges.


~who are the weaker hands in this scenario?
participants selling the highs/buying the lows further along the range - weaker in the sense that as time passes & price repeatedly touches outer edges the chance of a breakout is increasing; entering mid range potentially will have lower rr


~what are high & low probability trade setups in this scenario?
high prob setups - trading the range early / trading breakout late; low prob - trading a breakout early / trading range late

~what are the dangers of trading in this sort of pattern?
problems/things to be careful of - as mentioned above - time is important; also number of touches to extreme - the greater the number of touches the more liquidity being absorbed at these levels? PA as price is close to the range limits; attempts at breakouts to increase liquidity / trigger stops?

~how may time influence trading decisions within this sort of pattern?
mentioned above a couple of times, but also on a breakout price can accelerate as stops are hit

~what other factors could be key in this pattern?
set ups on lower timeframes - may want see PA before entering or exiting eg 123s / wedges looking for a breakout to on the lows; support turns resistance etc; context - which isnt included here, what happened to price prior to the range? what is longer term picture - trending?; confluence - it this near a key level on higher timeframe etc?

this is all fairly basic stuff, make sense?

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