I should add that I use delta for longer term trades.
I will only enter a few trades on each market each day as I only tend to take trades where there are big things happening and don't scalp multiple levels during the day. Not that I'm against that, it just doesn't work for me as I trade better with the big picture in mind and tend to lose that if scalping.
I wouldn't say that delta is as reliable on the smaller swings/smaller levels of trapped traders, but when you're talking 10,000-15,000 trapped contracts or more (whether they are algos or humans), then things happen quite predictably...
My rule is simple-if it isn't obvious then don't trade. That last example I posted is an obvious one-I'll be up and in the office early tomorrow to see what happens with that one...
Nothing on the bund got me interested today in terms of delta-not enough action from anyone to even make me think of having a sniff
edit: .though.......ppl may be short, its bounced, and they are taking profits/scratching/puking (its their exit)......on the intraday you see this all the time, eg if the mkt is absorbing with limits or it reaches a level with high delta.......and the delta reverses.......its who wins the battle that is important. And that delta may just be someone who needs to do business. They may have bought at the bottom with mkts orders and now limit order offered higher for that amt.......which holds price.
The LL to me is much more important, price has been accepted lower.....that may mean ppl are willing to sit in offers all the way. Perhaps thats the confirmation?
Last edited by rosho01; April 7th, 2015 at 04:25 PM.
Hope you've had some good trades so far?
Made a bit on my delta set up from yesterday but didn't fall as far as expected. After all, if trading was that easy...
Missed a short on the bund at 159.11 as didn't get filled.
Saw that you posted a yield chart-do you use that in conjunction with bund trading? As far as I can tell, the yield and the price of the bund should have an exact correlation so of no use. However if the major bond traders use the yield to calculate whether the bond is worth buying (which most certainly seems logical) then it must be quite important.
And if you don't mind me asking-where do you get the data-I've looked everywhere and can't find a realtime source (either through my datafeed or elsewhere)
re the yield chart - i will use it as confluence to an area so for instance the dbl bottom & todays high is resistance level so was looking for short setup - which i just posted selling 08s - but the setup will always be down to recent PA.