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bund futures - intra day trading journal
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bund futures - intra day trading journal

  #241 (permalink)
Keab
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rosho01 View Post
indeed gd to have different opinions else wld be tedious, mine albeit v ltd with experience using footprint. i find footprint useful when there are icebergs holding price, & to view absorption also. just struggle with delta itself, esp as the bund is majority algos i assume doing a mixture of both.

I should add that I use delta for longer term trades.
I will only enter a few trades on each market each day as I only tend to take trades where there are big things happening and don't scalp multiple levels during the day. Not that I'm against that, it just doesn't work for me as I trade better with the big picture in mind and tend to lose that if scalping.

I wouldn't say that delta is as reliable on the smaller swings/smaller levels of trapped traders, but when you're talking 10,000-15,000 trapped contracts or more (whether they are algos or humans), then things happen quite predictably...
My rule is simple-if it isn't obvious then don't trade. That last example I posted is an obvious one-I'll be up and in the office early tomorrow to see what happens with that one...

Nothing on the bund got me interested today in terms of delta-not enough action from anyone to even make me think of having a sniff

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  #242 (permalink)
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bootsyjam View Post
Eurostoxx 50-potentially trapped buyers on delta. Heavy buying-price being held down by unseen limit orders. If that swing low gets beaten significantly I'll be looking to enter short on a retrace into this buying area.

(typing on this tablet is awful)

This kinda makes sense........

edit: .though.......ppl may be short, its bounced, and they are taking profits/scratching/puking (its their exit)......on the intraday you see this all the time, eg if the mkt is absorbing with limits or it reaches a level with high delta.......and the delta reverses.......its who wins the battle that is important. And that delta may just be someone who needs to do business. They may have bought at the bottom with mkts orders and now limit order offered higher for that amt.......which holds price.

The LL to me is much more important, price has been accepted lower.....that may mean ppl are willing to sit in offers all the way. Perhaps thats the confirmation?


Last edited by rosho01; April 7th, 2015 at 05:25 PM.
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  #243 (permalink)
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Day preview


Morning all,

so, lets hope for some movement today ie >27 tick range. its opened o/s yesterdays range which is a start! heres some levels on hourly which may or may not come into play, waiting for PA to confirm.

Some ID levels from yest also:

00s
84s
80s
70s

g/l.

R
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  #244 (permalink)
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Long setup buy 00s

This was a decent buy set up for a breakout upwards with HLs (& ascending triangle), but didnt take as cautious of the low vols:

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this cld be a potential setup later on the ascending tl - around the 00s. see what happens.


Last edited by rosho01; April 8th, 2015 at 04:26 AM.
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  #245 (permalink)
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yield chart

double bottom? or stretch to the all time lows @ 0.152?

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"ECB doesn't want to buy bonds if the yield is below -0.2%" http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2015/03/ecb-and-markets

just going to be cautious fading anything, though wld they purchase on low vol days?


Last edited by rosho01; April 8th, 2015 at 04:56 AM.
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  #246 (permalink)
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Daily chart (continuous)

screaming a BO...............
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  #247 (permalink)
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Possible sell set up

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though its building a bear flag here on 5min, so it may not get there.

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  #248 (permalink)
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possible sell setup cont....


rosho01 View Post
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though its building a bear flag here on 5min, so it may not get there.

traded up to 08s, 09s didnt trade & tried to hit the 08s but no joy. just gone 2 offered very quick after, that is frustrating.

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  #249 (permalink)
Keab
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Hi Rosho,
Hope you've had some good trades so far?
Made a bit on my delta set up from yesterday but didn't fall as far as expected. After all, if trading was that easy...
Missed a short on the bund at 159.11 as didn't get filled.

Saw that you posted a yield chart-do you use that in conjunction with bund trading? As far as I can tell, the yield and the price of the bund should have an exact correlation so of no use. However if the major bond traders use the yield to calculate whether the bond is worth buying (which most certainly seems logical) then it must be quite important.
And if you don't mind me asking-where do you get the data-I've looked everywhere and can't find a realtime source (either through my datafeed or elsewhere)

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  #250 (permalink)
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bootsyjam View Post
Hi Rosho,
Hope you've had some good trades so far?
Made a bit on my delta set up from yesterday but didn't fall as far as expected. After all, if trading was that easy...
Missed a short on the bund at 159.11 as didn't get filled.

Saw that you posted a yield chart-do you use that in conjunction with bund trading? As far as I can tell, the yield and the price of the bund should have an exact correlation so of no use. However if the major bond traders use the yield to calculate whether the bond is worth buying (which most certainly seems logical) then it must be quite important.
And if you don't mind me asking-where do you get the data-I've looked everywhere and can't find a realtime source (either through my datafeed or elsewhere)

hey bootsyjam

well done, can you post updated chart?

re the yield chart - i will use it as confluence to an area so for instance the dbl bottom & todays high is resistance level so was looking for short setup - which i just posted selling 08s - but the setup will always be down to recent PA.

i think you posted? Germany 10-Year Bond Chart - Investing.com UK

reuters/bbg screen wld be better but the >2k/mth is a little over budget at present.

p.s. not traded so far today.


Last edited by rosho01; April 8th, 2015 at 06:15 AM.
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