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bund futures - intra day trading journal
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bund futures - intra day trading journal

  #201 (permalink)
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Trade log / review

Trade log attached.

Review - overall frustrating day, found it hard to get on the big move up & in hindsight i shld have scratched at least one of the trend reversal trades when bidders looked v strong in mid 60s.

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  #202 (permalink)
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Day preview

Morning all,

Some levels of interest around here:

159.14
159.02-05
158.88-89
158.60-61
158.50-55

Staying flexible with respect to bias, but obv aware that ecb cld be in the mkt today buying bunds &/or shorter term bonds.

g/l.

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  #203 (permalink)
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er.....


what is going on in the bund, this is dangerous, algos/ppl/aliens/robots lifting & hitting through prices with size moving the mkt 6-8 ticks sometimes in 2 quick moves, meaning can get filled & stopped in a second. i dont like it. i had a gd buy of 65s & immediately was up trading 74s, then slowly back down & through my stop, & 2 secs later trading 72s.

-14 ticks for the day. i may just give this a miss today if it carries on like this, i cant put my stops any wider, my setups are not v gd when there are these types of movements, saw this a bit at end of last week but its a lot more prevalent now. hopefully it is the holiday affect, & subsides soon.

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buy set up lvl @ 53s. sell @ 80s. just going to watch for now, bund looks heavy imo.

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  #204 (permalink)
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Bund v EUR/USD; US Stocks; & EU Stocks


jmay View Post
Don't think so, but I don't discard a new 2 days minimmum, I expect volatility in the stock markets. Depends on the today's session of the US stocks, if them intend to break the unclear market of the last days sessions.

Also with EUR currency weaking, I'd not expect any downtrend confirmation. I find reasons to push the bund.

hi @jmay

re your mentions of other mkts above, have attached correlation charts for the euro, us stocks (unfort doesnt include the dow), & eu stocks.

As you can see long term they some have strong correlations, but imo cannot infer anything looking at the day & hour - which is where i will be structuring trades. so if i was positional trading, then yes I wld be paying much more attention. day trading with target of 10-20 ticks then this is the sort of info which will prob spook me out of a position.

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Forex Correlation | Currency Correlation Chart | OANDA fxTrade Europe

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  #205 (permalink)
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bought 76s

& sold 83s - 1 lot, played the break of the IB. onside all the way, no stress ha.

-8 ticks for the day.

my long 65s earlier was just a few ticks away from being a great entry. didnt like the amt of time PA was hovering around that area but if i had entered at 61-62s then i wld have been more comfortable with holding it. i had 61s as another poss entry area, but obv i was alr long. shld i have wider stops? not sure.

edit: as per chart flag type pattern & HLs within this. target was into prev days level where wld expect some sellers.

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Last edited by rosho01; April 1st, 2015 at 06:43 AM. Reason: add chart
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  #206 (permalink)
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Sold 03s & 04s

paid 04s/05s.....took a tick loss - i got spooked & was then hoping for a better entry as it was churninig around that level but just above my price - though really cld have only sold 05s. see chart entry, & now just traded down to my target of 93s. chart attached for entry. the only poor part of the setup was that it hadnt made new recent lows - was struggling at the 01s price.

another frustrating day, 2 good trade setups - 1st trade entry was good but then on return to it you cld have got in few ticks lower - where i puked it. & this one - which is great setup, but just got spooked by the PA. not sure whether prev trade impacted me - the PA is v jumpy also. if i had left the room after entry for both of these they wld both have hit their targets.

-19 ticks for day.

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  #207 (permalink)
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sold 01 & 03s

sold 01/03s paid on the retrace 06/07/08s, had quite a bit of space/time away from the level - then news came out that greece unable to meet their debt obligations (ok, we knew that years ago), mkt goes bid quick & 19s trading. the retrace perhaps happened too fast but it was only a 6 ticks spike into my selling area which as we know has been happening quite a bit, & i like that PA to enter.

-35ticks for the day. i am stopping here.

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  #208 (permalink)
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Sold 10s

I know i said i wld stop but the setup looked great on 5min LHs, made prev swing LL - i was watching oil at the time else wld have been 12 offered, but quickly (as quick as my ladder allows) hit the 10 bid & was onside straight away & price came off v quick. Paid 2s +8 ticks (1 lot). I originally had target in @ 97s as i wld like to get long @ 94s (the next area i see decent demand coming in). but moved it to 02s as it held here cpl of times before on the 1min. reading the mkt well, banked some ticks, & the bund trading like a flowing mkt once again albeit v briefly.

-27 ticks for day.

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Last edited by rosho01; April 1st, 2015 at 12:21 PM. Reason: better english
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  #209 (permalink)
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review / trade log

So all in all 4 swing trades (& some scratches):

1 & 2: both great levels & it was slightly poor entry on the first & lack of conviction on the second which cost me.

3: trade setup was ok - the retrace into the level was perhaps bit too fast & fundamental news came out at same time pushing it to new highs.

4: great setup - but only did 1 lot & too hasty on exit target.....i think cos being affected by my prev trades & wanted to get some confidence back.

-27 ticks (10 ticks of this is comms). what do i need to change in these types of mkts? do i need to change entry/exit parameters in this more choppy PA?

trade log attached...
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  #210 (permalink)
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Day preview & thoughts


Morning all,

Some thoughts:
~this is a marathon not a sprint, stay in the game
~2 lots only
~conviction even if entry not so great - reevaluate if PA is hanging around entry
~my rr is ~2-2.5 so even with 50% strike ratio, & yesterday if i had kept my positions on with orig stops & traded with 2 lots (inc my bo trade) then i wld have had 80% strike ratio - obv its only over a day so take those stats with a pinch of salt.
~be cautious of possible choppy PA

With respect to higher t/f view - yest failed to close above the prev swing high @13s (on continuous chart), indicates some weakness though i will await further PA to look for setups.

I wld be surprised if ecb do step in today as vols are low, but you never know.

Heres some levels on the hourly:

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and some ID levels for now:
159.21
159.12
158.80-85
158.63-66
158.55

figs/stuff for today (cld be some volatility):
http://wbponline.com/EconomicCalendar


Last edited by rosho01; April 2nd, 2015 at 04:12 AM. Reason: add more view
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