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bund futures - intra day trading journal
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bund futures - intra day trading journal

  #191 (permalink)
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Day review

Morning all,

Late start for me.

Could be a very slow 4 days, will be looking to take profits early eg 10 tick targets. Possible bull flag on the hourly, but not sure will have the legs to push through to prev highs. cld just find value around here for rest of day, will be looking to play all scenarios if they show themselves.

Hourly chart with some levels of interest

Higher:
158.80-85s (alr got here)
159.02-05

Lower:
158.69
158.60
158.55-58

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g/l.

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  #192 (permalink)
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Sold 87 & 85

Orig sold 81s & 80s - paid 84s - ok ish setup on the 1min -8 ticks

Then Sold 87 (x2) & 85 (x1) paid 74s for one & 70 & 71s (as per red arrow on chart): similar setup on 1min but as time went on it looked gd sell on 5min also, so was happy holding. Kept bouncing off the 74s but was building value around there & putting in LHs & LLs & on 15min looked bearish, there was a quick spike up which i was trying to sell again but i missed hitting the bid @81s & it was soon back down to 74s. Once they stayed offered I was 71 & 70 bid & both got taken out quite quickly, 2 hours though after entry. +44ticks

Only issue though is with a quicker platform & better fees i may have been jobbing that, poss all out of 74s (TP1) & putting back on @80s, perhaps, as its a v slow day. not sure! also my orig target 3 was 67s which have just traded, but as i said before i wanted to shorten my TPs cos of the hols/low vols, & thought 67s was just plain greedy.

Took a tick loss on scalp. +34 ticks for the day inc comms.


Thats me done for the day. Have a gd one.


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Trade log:
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  #193 (permalink)
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Day preview


Morning all,

Levels:

All a bit messy intraday......
ID
158.85
158.70-77
158.67
158.40
158.30
158.16-25

Upper
159.16
159.02

Lower
158.00
157.80-85

g/l.


Last edited by rosho01; March 31st, 2015 at 03:01 AM.
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  #194 (permalink)
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Bear flags - bund / bobl

Possible bear flags on hourly for both bund & bobl, see attached for bund chart (40-58 zone).....


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see how PA develops. iif the short term trend continues down it still has room to extend enough & stay within ranges from prev week.

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  #195 (permalink)
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Scalp sold 47s

Cheeky scalp with a 1 lot sold 47s & paid 40s, as per attached, price bounced nicely from 36 into a small res area & was 39 bid but worried it may not get there so moved to 40. wld have got 39s as it was but no big deasl, it did act as support & bounced from there.

next sell area 51-54s.
next buy arrea 20s.

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  #196 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
Possible bear flags on hourly for both bund & bobl, see attached for bund chart (40-58 zone).....


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see how PA develops. iif the short term trend continues down it still has room to extend enough & stay within ranges from prev week.

Don't think so, but I don't discard a new 2 days minimmum, I expect volatility in the stock markets. Depends on the today's session of the US stocks, if them intend to break the unclear market of the last days sessions.

Also with EUR currency weaking, I'd not expect any downtrend confirmation. I find reasons to push the bund.

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  #197 (permalink)
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Sold 64s & 67s

Sold 64 & 67s, paid 69s - which is one off the high but i dont mind - its my SL for a reason & i have no idea whether this pushes higher - PA now looks bullish again. Was happy with the short 64s for trend reversal & nice setup on the 5min, & looked ok on the 15min & came down nicely trading 60s, I sold 67s first time cos i thought my initial 64 entry was poor & i really wanted to be selling 66s first off. anyway, it didnt work out this time. The only issue is there is a better level higher up in mid 70s, however the mkt is alr in holiday mode & not sure it will get there.


Also lost a few ticks earlier on 1 lots & scratched a few scalps, down 17 ticks inc comms.

Hopefully another setup arises this afternoon but its v slow going, so that cld be my last.

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  #198 (permalink)
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choppy & strong buying

sold 71s paid 62s (1xlot) +9 gd setup, was quick fade tried to get more lots on but it never came back....then....

sold 68s & paid 72s (2xlots) -8 gd setup again, & came off to 62s but there was v strong buying 64s & upwards which shld have been the signal to bail out for scratch & reverse - he wasnt letting price go offered once it went bid - all the way up to 88s.

done some exp scratching also -20 ticks for the day.

been difficult day but wldnt have done too much different. its been harding getting long with little retrace & not into areas i like.

looking for sell entry @ 82s, but only if dont see any more v aggressive bid protecting (icebergs in the bid).

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just sold the 83s but then paid 81s cos spooked out of it. looks gd on 5min & 1min, though got strong demand when it traded 75s, still buyers in this.

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  #199 (permalink)
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I scratched one more trade and then called it a day -21ticks (a large chunk of which is comms). I will post my trade log tmrw morn. Have a nice eve.

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  #200 (permalink)
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jmay View Post
Don't think so, but I don't discard a new 2 days minimmum, I expect volatility in the stock markets. Depends on the today's session of the US stocks, if them intend to break the unclear market of the last days sessions.

Also with EUR currency weaking, I'd not expect any downtrend confirmation. I find reasons to push the bund.


Hi @jmay, I missed this post, apols. What do you mean by new 2 days min?

As you know, the bund did push lower from here, but not much. And also I wasnt predicting it to push lower, I just mentioned a trading pattern which had been forming.

Also, i am sceptical of correlations esp as I trade intraday, even correlations between instruments using same yield curve can be weak (eg bund v bobl), and thus when looking for 20 ticks, I have them charted, but they wont be the main reason for entering or not entering a trade.

I will post a link to correlations later.

Thks for the post though, beginning to think I was posting in a vacuum (despite 2.5k +views -whatever this means). Feel free to post a trade entry example using correlations to enter trades, or build context. Always willing to learn from others.

R


Last edited by rosho01; March 31st, 2015 at 05:33 PM.
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