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bund futures - intra day trading journal
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bund futures - intra day trading journal

  #181 (permalink)
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Sold 51s, then.......

Sold 51s after it put in a new swing low of 42s (which indicated to me the uptrend was over for now), looking for TP 38s ish. But on the retrace I paid 50s, no idea why cos thats not really a rule of mine, low on confidence?

And its now gone 42 offered. Hmm.

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Edit: 38 offered. I am annoyed at myself. Right, forget about it. move on.

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  #182 (permalink)
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Long 38s & 28s....

upped my size to 3 lots, and.....

bought 38s - stopped 32s -18 ticks. again, level prob at the front of zone but it was a slow trickle after building vol above again & it got slammed - filled & stopped in a few secs. it was quite large retrace but still in bounds for a long - its w/ trend (intraday).....but vols seem to be low & it doesnt take much to send prices tumbling through levels, at present. there doesnt seem to be much absorbing going on, only at the extremes, then just churn around the middle. someone mentioned 70% algos, feels like more sometimes.

bought 28s stopped 22s -18. wrong going long again so soon after? not sure? wrong going long now its retraced all the way back into tight IB? yes. back into the IB and expecting demand - bounced off nicely up to 36s, then straight back down, with heavy selling, once it went through 28s i was stopped v quick. sigh.

flat for the day. finding this difficult & after a gd start to the day, and making mistakes again, picking levels being the main one. hearing from prop traders they seem to be having difficulties trading this mkt also - but i am sure my difficulties can be ironed out ie they are to do with me. reading the mkt has been hard though - it defitely feels a lot different to recent days, & perhaps give less credence to with/against trend for now.

time for some reflection, reading, lunch.


Last edited by rosho01; March 26th, 2015 at 10:26 AM.
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  #183 (permalink)
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Long 29s & 35s


(Back down to 2 lot size. i will allow myself to average in once, but no averaging down - if my level gets taken out its done for good).

Long 29s first green arrow on chart cos of nice prev swing high shifted value higher indicating to me lod of was in & gd pullback after a bit of time higher, great bounce 1 tick DD, traded 37s dbl top 1st target for me was 40s then retraced v quickly (seemingly cos of the gilt making new lows - which i ignore cos correlation is poor in relation to my swing setups imo) and i get stopped @ 25s -8ticks.

Long 35s 2nd green arrow due to making new high (1st red arrow), it pulled back quite quick but was happy with the long with tight SL 33s with TP of 43s. +16 ticks

+8 ticks for the day. rollercoaster, some silly mistakes & gave lots back. but pleased with my last 2 trades, thought processes, execution.

lessons - not going to up size this or next week due to easter hols/lower vols. going to be very careful working bids/offers in even at great levels intraday.
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  #184 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post

+8 ticks for the day.

Didnt trade, am knackered and done for the day, only have tablet to use at home so bit difficult to post stuff up eves or early morns as dont have charts etc.

Have a nice evening.

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  #185 (permalink)
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Day preview

Morning all,

Yest failed to break out prev days range, and another doji type bar on the daily, this may or may not be related to lower vols we have had leading up to nxt weeks hols, in a mkt where vol is dominated by scalping algos. Vols expected to be quite low again so will be extra cautious & look for setups on t/fs of M15 or higher, & with good PA confirmation on M5. That means no limit orders in til these are aligned, regardless the 'strength' of intraday level.

Some levels of interest (hourly chart attached):

ID levels
158.25/30
158.50-56
158.17

Day levels
Higher
158.85
158.60-65

Lower
158.10
158.00-05
157.80-85
157.50

All to be taken with a pinch of salt, awaiting PA development.

g/l.

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  #186 (permalink)
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Sold 45 & 46s

Sold 45 & 46s (as per red arrows on 5min chart). Paid 29s & 30s +31 ticks inc comms. Price looked heavy up there - hourly chart dtl; absorbing nicely; failed to make new highs & added to it when it tried to retest; was worried a little about 41s as support but once it went through there it moved quickly to 30s.

my target was 26s, i moved it up cos it was below lod & wasnt sure how much it wld push through & hold below the IB, but happy again with first trade of day a winner, & cant be greedy. the mkt now is 16s. perhaps if had larger size on maybe wld be running this to prev low down here @10s, not sure.

Right now I am going to wait for a great setup, & it def wont be looking for the highs/lows of day.

Hourly & 5min attached.
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  #187 (permalink)
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Setups

Long - i like quick retrace away from the 05s & failed to close below the prev swing low of 10s few days back, & will be looking for clean long setup which maybe around the 19s on 5min.

Short - will see but dont see much res up til 35-40 area. if i see a setup @ 30s may look to go short, but rr will be tight imo.

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---------------------------------------------------

Poss addition to trading methods: i am going to try out some scalping trades with rr of 1:2 or 1:3 ish, as i call these areas really well (though i have traded them awfully in this thread). i will test & live trade these for a cpl of weeks, see how it goes.

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  #188 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
Long - i like quick retrace away from the 05s & failed to close below the prev swing low of 10s few days back, & will be looking for clean long setup which maybe around the 19s on 5min.

Short - will see but dont see much res up til 35-40 area. if i see a setup @ 30s may look to go short, but rr will be tight imo.

see attached chart for reasoning - was 41 offered as it crept up slowly but pulled order, prev supply & dtl & massive retrace.....but gdp fig out now.

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  #189 (permalink)
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Short 46s / Long 48s

Sold 46s Stopped 51s -10 (green arrow): this was great setup after the fig, hourly dtl nice area, hardly any DD as it retested up to the 48s but failed to reach, found support @ 41s but 2nd time through i thought the trade was gd, it traded 39s which on 5min was a retest of the dtl i posted prev (1st red arrow), and then suddenly went bid & was stopped out shortly after. I shld have moved my SL to 49s as 48s was still @ the hourly dtl.

Long 48s Stopped 44s -8 (2nd red arrow). Looked gd setup on the 15min, was absorbing at this level - didnt put a limit order in, however only issue was rr. Price looked heavy & said it looked like bid was gonna get whacked & offered in the scratch & boom....by the time i cld hit the bid i was stopped out.......bugger. This is whats been happening last cpl of days.

So i have given back 18 ticks. However, I like both of these setups & i was onside nicely on one, & it just didnt work out. In hindsight the 2nd setup wasnt as gd - and the telling sign was that it looked worse on the 5min vs the 15min - normally i wld want confluence, & looking for a continuation trade in this low vol mkt when its rallied 55 ticks (70% atr) when its heavily in value areas over last week or so was prob asking too much. Lesson learned.

Up +12 ticks.
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------------------------------------------------------
Missed trades?:
Buy 39s? See chart retest of dtl (1st red arrow) & retrace into blue shaded area. Though i was alr short at this time from higher t/f setup.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Poss setups:
Sell lvl @ 50-53s
Buy lvl @ 36s was a lvl as it was coming off after last entry but now invalid with small rr.

Just waiting patiently.


Last edited by rosho01; March 27th, 2015 at 12:38 PM.
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  #190 (permalink)
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rosho01 View Post
Sold 46s Stopped 51s -10 (green arrow): this was great setup after the fig, hourly dtl nice area, hardly any DD as it retested up to the 48s but failed to reach, found support @ 41s but 2nd time through i thought the trade was gd, it traded 39s which on 5min was a retest of the dtl i posted prev (1st red arrow), and then suddenly went bid & was stopped out shortly after. I shld have moved my SL to 49s as 48s was still @ the hourly dtl.

Long 48s Stopped 44s -8 (2nd red arrow). Looked gd setup on the 15min, was absorbing at this level - didnt put a limit order in, however only issue was rr. Price looked heavy & said it looked like bid was gonna get whacked & offered in the scratch & boom....by the time i cld hit the bid i was stopped out.......bugger. This is whats been happening last cpl of days.

So i have given back 18 ticks. However, I like both of these setups & i was onside nicely on one, & it just didnt work out. In hindsight the 2nd setup wasnt as gd - and the telling sign was that it looked worse on the 5min vs the 15min - normally i wld want confluence, & looking for a continuation trade in this low vol mkt when its rallied 55 ticks (70% atr) when its heavily in value areas over last week or so was prob asking too much. Lesson learned.

Up +12 ticks.
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------------------------------------------------------
Missed trades?:
Buy 39s? See chart retest of dtl (1st red arrow) & retrace into blue shaded area. Though i was alr short at this time from higher t/f setup.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Poss setups:
Sell lvl @ 50-53s
Buy lvl @ 36s was a lvl as it was coming off after last entry but now invalid with small rr.

Just waiting patiently.

+12 ticks inc comms.

no more trades, it did pop up into 53s area & beyond due to some weird stuff going on, looked dodgy on fri aft.

i am off to watch england draw with lithuania, have a gd w/e all.

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