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as per usual i have no bias, PA is looking very muddled after yesterdays tight range though & i will be drilling down to 5 & 1MIN charts to look for a cleaner setup. attached hourly chart with some levels marked up. FOMC rate decision (7pm cet) today so expecting at least some increase in volatility.
hmm went long 75s paid 68s, down 14 ticks. then did same trade again wtf, got slipped - down total -19 ticks crap trading (did some jobbing).
lessons:
~it retraced too fast from 93s to take a long. in that scenario it was like picking bottoms - wait for confirmation on 5mins.
~today is not yesterday
~be careful
~tighter stops? wider levels? dont know.
|Hi Rosho,
Nice levels once again!
I missed my trade (again) by 5 mins this morning as got to office at 8.10. Just not good enough, I knew there was a good chance that price would pop and it tends to do it early. Extremely annoyed with myself, must focus on no revenge trading.
To explain the (missed) trade:
Chart -shows the heavy selling on CD without price moving down (blue circles). That shows me that there are a lot of people short on market orders-same can be said for limit orders that are not seen.
Was also a good push down in price, on good volume and good CD that was then rejected (red circles) . More sellers potentially trapped.
Price made early move higher that got the sellers from yesterday nervous, when price reached that area circled in red those sellers in particular got nervous and bought to exit their positions. Price moves higher, those still short from yesterday also buy to close-price shoots higher.
Price hits significant resistance and moves lower at a decent clip to the all important opening price (lowest purple line).
My interpretation of that extremely quick move down is that there was no-one really supporting the mini bull market and were buying to open positions. The price move was fuelled by people closing their losing/break even positions by buying to close. As such, when that resistance area was defended there was no-one there to act as a buffer against the sellers so price dropped like a stone to the open.
That is why I decided to stay out of this trade (long at/near the open).
Also, price moved below where the heavy buying took place this morning to drive the price up. Despite my after the fact analysis, as I'm someone who trades on traders being trapped, that is not a situation i want to find myself trading in! Not happy though!
However this could be a severe case of analysis paralysis. I know the opening price and opening balance is a strong shield used by traders. If price has moved to it and showed signs of reversing then perhaps i should just trade it.
To be fair the risk/reward didn't look great on it and price action looked a bit shaky for a long.
However if you look at the CD I have marked out (white lines) areas where traders are significantly exposed to the market. It is these areas/zones I will be looking at closely if prices break and then return to.
Hope that all makes sense. Hope you got some good trades in this morning as well!
Oh yeah, I believe there's is a bund announcement at approx 10.40am GMT.
Balls. Sorry to hear Rosho-keep your chin up-your analysis and levels are good so just stay focussed. Remember, you're paid to wait for your set up (and the best set up) to occur.
hey bootsy - no big deal. hoping some more volatility to be able to get some opportunities. generally i trade better when i am down cos i am more aggressive, we shall see.
where do you get this bund announcement? draghi speaks at 11am cet.
i sold 87s on the retrace, TP 76 SL 90. as i was typing - just got filled + 22 ticks.
Great to hear-at least you've achieved something for turning up!
Mmm r.e. bund announcement saw something on zerohedge yesterday (I think) , looked at forex factory calendar and saw the entry Forex Factory
and then also looked here 10-y Bond Auction: Germany
I'm not sure what/how the effect will be. If any. Your comments would be appreciated.
