I have been trading for a few years full time. I had started doing daily forecasts on Twitter, but decided to bring my work to the Big Mike Trading community now.
I have run the gambit as far as trading goes. I started out in stocks, spent a moment in Forex, and came to the futures market. I have done some extensive programming on various instruments and have discovered that whatever edge I find is fleeting as other programs stumble across the same edge and it ends up canceling it out.
I have been discretionary for a couple years now. I have been doing homework on the markets during that time and have always struggled that I am very often correct on the day's direction but end up in the red. I am going to try something new here now. In addition to scalping the ES, I will be taking on the M6E and start swing trading. My forecasting has always seemed to be my greatest strength so it only makes sense to apply my trading to it in a more direct fashion.
I will be talking about the 6E but when I place a trade, I will do so on the M6E.
The Euro is in a long term down trend in a race toward parity. In the intermediate term it has been in balance and made a counter trend pop up on 2-3. This pop did not find any buyers and immediately fell back into balance. On the 9th, sellers stepped in at 1.1354 but could not take out the lows. They defended this level three times in the session and the day ended up neutral. Sellers are willing to defend their levels but are not eager to keep pushing to new lows. In the overall picture we are still balancing at a CHVN.
On Tuesday, if sellers cannot take this to new lows I am expecting 1.1354 to be tested again. The probability of it holding a fourth time is very low. If buyers prevail I am expecting 1.1461.
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1.1332(my first target) and ended up being the top of the Chicago RTH session.
Today was balanced in line with yesterday. This pause in my opinion represents a lack of participation by the buyers and the sellers. We are still in intermediate balance. But the last two days pause would still favor the down side because the recent auction has failed to break out of balance at the top. Now that the buyers had a second chance to take things back up from the bottom of the range and once again passed. These two criteria should give sellers confidence to make a new run for the lows tomorrow. 1.1297 would be my downside target for tomorrow.
The 6E made a nice move down through our target and tested a prior balance area from the 10th. The market rallied from there and tested the London session VPOC. The test held and the market traded back to the mid of the pit session.
The market is still in balance with buyers and sellers defending their positions. The market is still in an overall downtrend but the selling is on hold for the moment.
If we open in range on Thursday expect more trading without conviction on low volume. The test of 1.1286 looked pretty convincing so I will favor the buy side on Thursday. 1.1349 will be my first target with 1.1371 next.
On Thursday the market rallied like I said in my previous post. It zipped up through the poorly auctioned day of the 6th. On Friday, I am expecting at least a test of 1.1450. This is an area of previous balance where sellers could be activated. If sellers do not come in there, 1.1539 is next up.