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I've been trading live data recently, using a CQG demo account with a new platform, Multicharts.net. I'm pleased with the results. Here are some recent results (not including commissions) with screenshots:
4/27/2015 +$150, 3 wins, 0 losses
4/28/2015 -$37.50, 7 wins, 4 losses
4/29/2015 +$400, 6 wins, 1 loss
4/30/2015 +$237.50, 7 wins, 2 losses
5/1/2015 +$162.50, 6 wins, 1 loss
5/4/2015 +$0.00, 5 wins, 2 losses (started the day with 2 losses due to CQG tick data change)
5/6/2015 +$125, 11 wins, 6 losses (bounced between the 500 tick and 800 tick)
5/7/2015 +$137.50, 4 wins, 1 loss (first day trading 6000 volume chart)
The recent data change not withstanding, I've been doing pretty well. I feel ready to start trading real money next week, probably. It is a micro-size account and I'll be trading single contracts only. We'll see how it goes.
Note the time of this post. Here in California it's about 7:10 am. I'm finished with my trading. Hit my target and I'm getting my weekend started early.
Yesterday didn't go well. I felt okay but I didn't read the PA very well and I made some mistakes.
5/11/2015 -19 ticks, 2 wins, 3 losses
I managed to shrink my micro-sized account to an even smaller size, LOL! My balance went below $400 so I couldn't take any more trades for the rest of the session.
AMP Clearing normally has a min margin of $400 but if you accept larger commissions they'll let you day trade with only $300. I made the necessary election so I could try some more trades today.
5/12/2015 +11 ticks, 3 wins
I was glad to make a little comeback and live to trade tomorrow.
Don't remember if I mentioned this, but I'm now trading a 6000 contract volume chart (each bar is 6000 contracts traded).
This week I continued live real-money trading. My last post showed results for Monday and Tuesday. Here are the results for the rest of the week:
5/13/2015 -17 ticks, 4 wins, 4 losses
I started with two wins but obviously struggled after that with 3 full 8-tick losses. The bias was down so I was trying to get short but the market was actually in a correction. Then I finally got long just a couple ticks below the high of the correction when it started heading back down. After those losses my NLV was under $300 so I couldn't take any more trades.
Now, I'm not proud of what I did next but I'll just be honest. I put some more money on the table. Remember, I originally funded this account with just $600. That didn't really give me much wiggle room. So this time I wired $800 into the account. I was astonished at how quickly the transaction went through! I was actually able to get a couple more trades in before the end of the session. But I only managed to get 2 ticks back.
5/14/2015 +6 ticks, 4 wins, 3 losses
While it was a winning day, I was somewhat disappointed with my trading on Thursday. My first trade was a win but for my second trade I went long too early, on a first entry. I used a slightly smaller stop than usual, based on the low of my signal bar and got stopped out for a 6 tick loss at the exact bottom of that swing. Right after that I got long at the second entry and actually doubled up to a 2 contract position. I should have just taken a 4-tick scalp on both contracts but I tried to get cute with one, trying to get a runner. Then it dropped down and I ended up taking a 4-tick loss when I could have just taken my 4-tick win. Then I did almost the exact same thing right after that. 2 contract position, 4-tick win followed by a 2-tick loss this time. At that point I was even on the day (not including commissions). My last trade was a really nice failed 2nd entry short trap. I decided to let it run a bit. I could have managed it better, eventually getting out with a 6-tick profit.
5/15/2015 +22 ticks, 8 wins, 2 losses
Pretty good day today.
These first two trades really demonstrate one of the things that I like about this strategy - there's a lot of room for error. Even a PA klutz like me can pick entries that survive an 8-tick stop and hit a 4-tick target. Usually...
I ended the week down $108.66 including commissions. Not great but at least I made a decent comeback yesterday and today. I'll be back at it next week.
Lackluster day today. I made some money but not as much as I should have. But hey, at least I didn't lose money, right?
5/18/2015 +5 ticks, 4 wins, 1 loss
Early on it looked to be a range day. For my first trade I got short near the top of the range. I was almost immediately uncomfortable with the position. I hadn't waited for a proper setup to enter the trade. I just somewhat indiscriminately went short after two bearish bars formed at the top of the range and there was a small pullback. Prices went against me 3 ticks and when it moved back down I bailed with a 1-tick profit.
I was happy with my second trade. There was a failed 2nd entry long setup and I used a stop to enter the trade. It never went more than a tick against me. However, I noticed area of support (brown dashed line) and decided to take profit at just 3 ticks. Turns out I could have taken 4 ticks but I didn't know that would happen and I didn't want it to be a 4-tick failure.
My third trade was the only loser today. I was watching for confirmation of a down trend line that wasn't quite as steep as the one I have drawn in. That bearish bar to the left of my third entry seemed to confirm the down trend and I got short. When I look now though I realize I took a 1st entry. I needed to wait for a 2nd entry. My entry bar closed on its high and I got out with a 5-tick loss.
My fourth trade was a pretty standard range play. It was a 2nd entry on a bigger picture. Plus it followed a 2-legged move from the bottom of the range up to the top. It ended up being my only full scalp of the day. Ugh!
I missed two nice moves up for reasons I mentioned directly on the chart.
My fifth and final trade today was a failed 2nd entry short / trap. The market was moving incredibly slowly for this trade. I bailed prematurely on this trade for reasons I mentioned directly on the chart.
So that was it. I'm not particularly happy with my trading today but it could have been worse, of course. I'll be back at it tomorrow.
Ugh, pretty brutal week for me! I continue to feel good about my ability to read the PA and choose good setups but I've been making a couple critical psychological mistakes:
1) Trading more than one contract - a couple times this week as a trade was going against me I added on. This led to a couple large losses.
2) Using a stop larger than 8 ticks - I set my stops based on the price action (a tick or two outside my signal bar) but my max should always be 8 ticks. Yet, this week I had a 10-tick loss, a 13-tick loss and even a 15-tick loss.
I cannot continue making these mistakes or my account will be gone. So for next week I will focus really hard on always trading only 1 contract and never having a stop bigger than 8 ticks.
In the meantime I am using the long holiday weekend to get some practice on the simulator. During practice sessions I'll focus on improving my read of PA in two areas:
1) Don't trade 1st entries
2) Always draw short term and long term trend lines
I tried to PM you but apparently you need to have 5 posts before you can PM anyone. You are correct in your statement about expectancy but omitted one important piece, trade frequency. The two go hand in hand. But a low expectancy is no different than a market maker for example. Little singles, constantly with no major drawdowns, allowing you to put size on and then make good money. But you need help and I wanted to share some off line help as I really don't like spending much time on forums. If you can PM me with an email address I'm happy to share more.
