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ES day trader bbdsan's journal
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ES day trader bbdsan's journal

  #31 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Atlanta, GA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Favorite Futures: ES, TF, YM, NQ
 
Posts: 24 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 12 received


bbdsan View Post
Well, it's been 3 weeks since my last post. I'm still trading strictly on the simulator, no real money. I've been working my way through March and now April of 2014. I'm using the replay feature on Ninja Trader.

I'm happy to report that my results are improving. Psychologically I've been able to feel more calm and patient while trading. I just watch the price action and I've been more accepting of it. I'm able to wait for the best setups. I used to have about 20 trades in a day but lately it's more like 7 to 10. My best trades are usually in the morning between 5 am and 9:30 am Pacific.

My plan for when I start trading live again is to have a daily goal of 2-3 winning trades, then switch to the simulator. I feel really confident about this plan. For the last several days of simulator trading I almost always find myself up 3 to 6 winners and 0 to 1 losses early in the session. It's a simulator and I'm trying to get more experience, so I keep trading, but I feel some reluctance. I used to feel worried about trading live and not wanting to switch to the simulator after reaching my daily goal. Now however, I can imagine myself feeling a sense of relief after hitting my goal and gladly switching to the simulator or even just calling it a day!

I had some issues with the replay data from Ninja Trader based on the contract rollover from March to June, so there is a gap between the last results I posted and these results:

3/24/14 -$537.26, 10 wins, 9 losses
3/25/14 +$60.84, 8 wins, 3 losses
3/26/14 +$175.08, 6 wins, 1 loss
3/27/14 +$376.90, 10 wins, 0 losses
3/28/14 -$135.80, 6 wins, 4 losses
Week of 3/24 -$60.04, 40 wins, 17 losses

3/31/14 +$0.16, 8 wins, 5 losses
4/1/14 +$26.90, 6 wins, 3 losses
4/2/14 +$287.58, 7 wins, 0 losses

So that's my update. I'm feeling good. I'm sticking with the simulator for now, at least until I have demonstrated 90% winning days. I also want to see a stretch of 20 or so days without a blowup like 3/24. But I'm feeling close to being ready for live trading (just single contracts) pretty soon.

-bbdsan

bbdsan, I happen across your thread and read some of your post only because I trade the ES as well. In your last post you mentioned that you plan to start trading live again and that your goal is to have 2 - 3 winning trades and then switch to sim trading. I would humbly say that your goal should not be focused on the number of wins for the day, but on the execution of your trades. If you have tested your system and it has an edge in the markets, your focus should be on its execution. The markets have no concern for your goals, and trying to reach a certain number of winning trades daily is putting undue pressure on YOU to perform. Which then make you take bad positions in trying to reach that goal. The key is to wait for you parameters to be met, and if they are not, then you sit on your hands, and if that means sitting all day with no trades, then so be it. Think in terms of 1000 trades not the 2or 3 winning trades per day.

The following 2 users say Thank You to vertiqa20 for this post:
 
  #32 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Sacramento, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 148 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 24 given, 74 received


vertiqa20 View Post
bbdsan, I happen across your thread and read some of your post only because I trade the ES as well. In your last post you mentioned that you plan to start trading live again and that your goal is to have 2 - 3 winning trades and then switch to sim trading. I would humbly say that your goal should not be focused on the number of wins for the day, but on the execution of your trades. If you have tested your system and it has an edge in the markets, your focus should be on its execution. The markets have no concern for your goals, and trying to reach a certain number of winning trades daily is putting undue pressure on YOU to perform. Which then make you take bad positions in trying to reach that goal. The key is to wait for you parameters to be met, and if they are not, then you sit on your hands, and if that means sitting all day with no trades, then so be it. Think in terms of 1000 trades not the 2or 3 winning trades per day.

Hi vertiqa20,

I appreciate your post and agree with your thoughts. If my system works (positive expectancy), why not trade it all day every day? I certainly could do that. However, there are a couple factors that hold me back.
  1. I want to have a life outside of trading. If I can, I'd rather be finished with my day's trading after the first 2-3 hours of the regular session. Then I can spend the rest of the day on other things I enjoy. So far on the simulator, I'm usually able to accumulate 2-3 winning trades within the first hour or two. Any mistakes I make tend to come later in the session.
  2. I have noticed that the price action is easier for me to read, and more predictable between the hours of 5 and 9:30 am PST. This tendency is corroborated in many of Mack's daily chart lessons (PATs Trading on YouTube).

I'll see how it goes trading just 1 contract for a while. If I'm winning consistently, I'll bump up the number of contracts. If I reach my goal for the day and I still want some more practice, I'll continue on the simulator (with live data or even replay data).

Thanks again for reading and posting your comments! I really appreciate it.

-bbdsan

 
  #33 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Atlanta, GA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Favorite Futures: ES, TF, YM, NQ
 
Posts: 24 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 12 received



bbdsan View Post
Hi vertiqa20,

I appreciate your post and agree with your thoughts. If my system works (positive expectancy), why not trade it all day every day? I certainly could do that. However, there are a couple factors that hold me back.
  1. I want to have a life outside of trading. If I can, I'd rather be finished with my day's trading after the first 2-3 hours of the regular session. Then I can spend the rest of the day on other things I enjoy. So far on the simulator, I'm usually able to accumulate 2-3 winning trades within the first hour or two. Any mistakes I make tend to come later in the session.
  2. I have noticed that the price action is easier for me to read, and more predictable between the hours of 5 and 9:30 am PST. This tendency is corroborated in many of Mack's daily chart lessons (PATs Trading on YouTube).

I'll see how it goes trading just 1 contract for a while. If I'm winning consistently, I'll bump up the number of contracts. If I reach my goal for the day and I still want some more practice, I'll continue on the simulator (with live data or even replay data).

Thanks again for reading and posting your comments! I really appreciate it.

-bbdsan

I totally agree with your times to trade, my specific point was really on having the 2 or 3 winners. Some days you will not have that and must be willing to walk away and come back another day.

 
  #34 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Sacramento, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 148 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 24 given, 74 received

Finished another week of replay trading on the simulator:

3/31/14 +$0.16, 8 wins, 5 losses
4/1/14 +$26.90, 6 wins, 3 losses
4/2/14 +$287.58, 7 wins, 0 losses
4/3/14 -$264.08, 8 wins, 8 losses
4/4/14 +$260.84, 8 wins, 2 losses

Week of 3/31 +$311.40, 37 wins, 18 losses

-bbdsan

 
  #35 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Atlanta, GA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Favorite Futures: ES, TF, YM, NQ
 
Posts: 24 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 12 received


bbdsan View Post
Finished another week of replay trading on the simulator:

3/31/14 +$0.16, 8 wins, 5 losses
4/1/14 +$26.90, 6 wins, 3 losses
4/2/14 +$287.58, 7 wins, 0 losses
4/3/14 -$264.08, 8 wins, 8 losses
4/4/14 +$260.84, 8 wins, 2 losses

Week of 3/31 +$311.40, 37 wins, 18 losses

-bbdsan

bbdsan, what are your rules for making a trade, are you wanting to scalp the market? How do you have your charts set up?

 
  #36 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Nt8, MotiveWave, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
KahunaDog's Avatar
 
Posts: 476 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 945 given, 345 received


bbdsan View Post
Finished another week of replay trading on the simulator:

3/31/14 +$0.16, 8 wins, 5 losses
4/1/14 +$26.90, 6 wins, 3 losses
4/2/14 +$287.58, 7 wins, 0 losses
4/3/14 -$264.08, 8 wins, 8 losses
4/4/14 +$260.84, 8 wins, 2 losses

Week of 3/31 +$311.40, 37 wins, 18 losses

-bbdsan

Nice journal and great for you to doing a lot of replay/backtesting.

The following user says Thank You to KahunaDog for this post:
 
  #37 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Atlanta, GA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Favorite Futures: ES, TF, YM, NQ
 
Posts: 24 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 12 received


bbdsan View Post
Finished another week of replay trading on the simulator:

3/31/14 +$0.16, 8 wins, 5 losses
4/1/14 +$26.90, 6 wins, 3 losses
4/2/14 +$287.58, 7 wins, 0 losses
4/3/14 -$264.08, 8 wins, 8 losses
4/4/14 +$260.84, 8 wins, 2 losses

Week of 3/31 +$311.40, 37 wins, 18 losses

-bbdsan

bbdsan, $311 on 55 trades is $5.65/trade, you may need to re-evaluate your system to not trade some of the noise. $5.65/trade will not allow you to be successful long term

 
  #38 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Kansas City, MO U.S.
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ToS, Ninja
Favorite Futures: ES, Currency, Tacos
 
DrewDown's Avatar
 
Posts: 211 since Mar 2015
Thanks: 301 given, 118 received

That's giving a lot to commissions. Nothing wrong with scalping, but it is hard to be profitable on a small scale. I scalp some when it's slow, but even then, I keep an eye on my MACD, a few different time frame charts, and a few moving averages to help pinpoint bigger moves of the day. It can be hard to stay zoned in on that goal looking at all the noise of 5 minute chart or an order book/DOM. I do use an order book, but I really only read it looking for areas of support and resistance. I am sure you already doing some of this, as you mentioned in your first post, but I just thought I would share some of what I have found.

The following user says Thank You to DrewDown for this post:
 
  #39 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Sacramento, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 148 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 24 given, 74 received


vertiqa20 View Post
I totally agree with your times to trade, my specific point was really on having the 2 or 3 winners. Some days you will not have that and must be willing to walk away and come back another day.

Yes, true. The way I trade the price action, I'm only scalping out 4 ticks. So even on a very flat range-bound day, there's going to be at least 5 or 6 entries minimum.

-bbdsan

 
  #40 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Sacramento, CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 148 since Feb 2015
Thanks: 24 given, 74 received



vertiqa20 View Post
bbdsan, what are your rules for making a trade, are you wanting to scalp the market? How do you have your charts set up?

Yes, I am scalping 4 ticks. I'm looking to enter with the trend after two-legged pullbacks (i.e. second entries) or failed countertrend moves (i.e. failed second entries). You can watch hundreds of free videos about the strategy I'm using on PATs Trading YouTube channel. I also bought Mack's Price Action Trading Manual for $99 (which was well worth it) and signed up for a year subscription to the premium section of his web site, priceactiontradingsystem.com. That was also well worth the $99 for a year.

I am not affiliated with PATS in any way, BTW. Mack is a saint as far as I'm concerned so I plug his web site whenever I can.

-bbdsan


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