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SniperDaytrader's journal

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  #1 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
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I spent the better part of the last 6 years of my life trying to succeed in trading. I blew couple of trading accounts, lost lot of money and time. I felt both pure joy and deep frustration while on my path. I traded different methods and strategies since 2009 when I entered my first live trade. I traded ES, FDAX, 6E, TF (Russell 2000), NQ, YM.

I am daytrader and I am currently trading NQ and YM (E-mini Nasdaq and e-mini DowJones). I am reversals trader and I use volume profile, SR zones, and price action to find interesting price levels to enter the markets. I am using orderflow (footprints/numbersbars) for precise timing and trade management.

I created also my own blog, where I will share my results, profits, trades (full disclosure), and also my opinions in some articles. I also tweet my entries while I trade (whenever possible).

Consistent profits for everyone
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  #3 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received


This week was extraordinary thanks to series of unexpected events. The volatility was high but that was not the biggest issue. All the big market moves which I am used to catch at the beginning (at least some of them) had very strange start. Like if there was something missing in the orderflow. In addition, the markets have been very nervous with lot of jumping around. This unusual behaviour led to to my frustration, which took the better of my patience and resulted in overtrading and blackout (Tuesday). Even when I came back from this during the rest of the week, it left me with bad taste in my mouth.

My detailed results from SierraChart trading blog are in attachement.

Consistent profits for everyone
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  #4 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

I am attaching also my equity curve and trade activity log from SC. The red markers divide weeks, the black ones days. Please remember those are single contract results. I had some difficulties since the beginning of this year resulting in overtrading and thus lowering my win% ratio. I had blackout also this Tuesday (16 trades).

Blackouts are big threat for me. All of my big losses originated from blackouts.

My current challenges are:
- lowering the amount of trades
- working on patience
- working on discipline (specially following the Money Management rules)

Consistent profits for everyone
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  #5 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

NQ

Nasdaq is in long term uptrend, close to it’s high from November last year. Premarket opened with gap which the market later filled. I am preplanned 2 support and 2 resistance zones (see the pic). I prefer long trades from globex low at 4233. Otherwise, I will be looking at other dynamic S/R zones during the trading.

YM

Dow Jones is also in uptrend from long term perspective. DJ created also gap but was too weak to close it (as of 1.5 hour before opening). I also prefer long trades in DJ from preplanned zones. 17500 looks promising (besides other things it is also nice round number).

In general

After the last week’s nervousness and being Monday with no significant data releases I am expecting uncertain market, meaning I will be more careful than usual and wait for clear situations.

Consistent profits for everyone
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  #6 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

Markets have been nervous from the beginning as I expected and wrote in my pre market preparation. I also wrote: ”I also prefer long trades in DJ from preplanned zones. 17500 looks promising (besides other things it is also nice round number)”. And look how nicely Dow Jones respected the pre planned support zone.



Trades
T1 Long in NQ. I was too late and momentum was gone. Hasty trade. -10
T2 Break in NQ. I saw lot of trapped eager bulls in agony here. I entered from nice price level but NQ didn’t react as I expected and this being not really my primarily type of trade I opted for quick +4
I missed the long in YM from support because I was short in NQ.
T3 Was partly my fault because I didn’t take the offered 8 ticks, partly bad luck when I was hit by stop run. -12

T4 Short from VAL, but again too late. When I realized my mistake I took -5
T5 Very nice long from support zone for nice price which allowed me to give the market more space, so I let it run to +18
T6 Another break, this time trapped bears. Quick +10
T7 Flip trough ORH. Quick +9

Results:

• too many trades again
•only 57.14% win ratio
•I took T1 and T4 too late
•T3 loss is ok, but could have been managed better

Consistent profits for everyone
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  #7 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

NQ

Nasdaq moved down from yesterday´s trading range. It strikes me as if NQ is seeking for bottom border for consolidation. 4200 price level could be a good candidate for it. My guess is that the break in premarket was a false one and we will see NQ return to 4240 – 4285 levels.

YM

Similar situation in YM but the situation is less readable for me. I am also expecting the market to pull back to higher levels. I will be waiting for opportunities for longs.

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  #8 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
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Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

Again extremely tough markets. Most of the features of my trading strategy simply didn’t work today. Markets move in very strange way – there are lot of jumps back and forth. There is basically no regular rotation anymore, just big jumps. Because of this I was stopped out several times on 1-3 ticks precisely (market moved beyond my SL just 1-3 ticks). This triggered angry behaviour and I overtraded again.




Trades
T1 ok +7
T2 short in NQ, again ok, but marked moved 1 tick beyond my SL -7
T3 again, thanx to extremely volatile jumps, I was stopped out from nice trade. -9
T4 again good trade, again market moved 1 tick beyond my SL -6
•T5 tried quick short, didn’t work out -3
•T6 this was my fault, took the price too high -13
•T7 I knew I am right with the idea of markets moving back up, so I reenterd and widened my SL to 20 ticks. +24•T8 and T9 tried to short the MID twice. -0 and -9
•T10 again my fault in trade management, I should have taken the 20ticks profit. And I had bad luck after that when the market went exactly for my SL. -13
•T11 this was technical fault, I forgot LMT order on the second chart while I was watching YM. -6
•T12 I had strong feeling the markets are going up. I entered at very nice price level and placed my PT at ORL. However the market couldn’t break up from the consolidation and I grew tired of the position so I killed it after 18min. Of course, 10 seconds later the market climbed trought the ORL almost without stopping. +13
•T13 short NQ, but the market started to chop, out at +1
•T14 I tried an aggressive long, but the market did a pullback first. -14
•T15 Finally I entered when I saw trapped bears at MID and holded the position longer. +41

Even when I managed to cover most of the loss with the last trade, I am not happy at all with today’s trading. I could blame the markets all day long but the truth is that I shouldn’t trade at all or at least not so much.

Results

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  #9 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

Today is FOMC in the evening (afternoon US time), so I expected the markets to be lazy and move slowly. That is why I was trying to take some trades as soon as possible after opening with at least some volatility. As the markets unfolded however, we could see quite volatile move down.



T1 I tried to enter soon. The 17360 level in YM was interesting for me and I saw the market reject the price underneath it. I couldn’t catch the price sooner so my entry price was quite high. That is why I didn’t leave the market more space to unfold and killed the position at BE+1 when I didn’t see willingness to rise.

T2 This situation was interresting both in NQ and YM. I decided to short YM. The entry was too low and market moved one tick beyond my SL stopping me out. Bad timing and bad luck. -8

T3 This was very nice ”sniper” trade. Long in NQ, market took my LMT order precisely and I was in the position without any heat. PT was hit in matter of seconds. These are the trades I like most. +14

T4 Hasty trade, I should have waited for the market reaction and then I should have killed the position at -6 -7. I married the trade and took full SL. -12

T5 Reentry of previous idea. This was exactly the reaction I should have waited for. Now I just barely covered the previous loss. +13

T6 Long in YM. I was looking at this area long before the market entered here. It was globex low, and low of yesterday’s swing. When I look back at the trade and orderflow I think the area was too visible and well prepared market maker’s trap. I let them lure me in this time. -7

T7 Very nice long. Look how the markets respected the support zone from my premarket preparation (see previous post). I saw strong and healthy move up so I left the market more space do develop. I took my profit according my trade management rules for +25 ticks.

With this trade I reached my perfect daily profit 80-120 USD/1 contract and according to my money management rules I stopped trading.

Results:

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  #10 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received


I was done very quickly today. It took me just 40min to reach my PDP (perfect daily profit). I saw another good opportunities, but when I reach PDP so fast and effortless I usually stop trading for that day because I don’t want to spoil it.



T1 I saw nice situation in orderflow. Many bears trapped and in agony. I gave the market little time so it could react to them. I watched patiently and entered long after I saw the market stucked. I wanted to see a quick rejection and momentum to the long side. I didn’t see anything so I opted for quick exit at BE +1

T2 Well, I have to say that this time I was wrong about the market structure. I was expecting the market to fall because it already tested the globex high and I saw strong bears. I went short from 17146 and took quick +9

I missed nice opportunity for short at 17180 but the move was too quick and I didn’t react in time.

T3 I changed my view on the market and went long from 17133. Again, I didn’t hope for a homerun and I took quick +10. I tweeted about this trade, it is excellent example of my trading style. Duration: 14 secs, heat: 0 ticks, profit: $50

Results:



Today’s trading lesson:
Take your profit quickly and even if you are wrong in market assessment, you can still profit!

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Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

I traded too much again. I had couple of very nice entries but altogether my performance was very mediocre.



T1 Long in NQ. Valid try. I killed the positon after the market showed weakness to climb. +4
T2 Another long in NQ. This time too aggressive. -8
T3 I saw the quick short spike in NQ as a stop run. Therefore I jumped in and when I didn’t see price rejection I got off at BE+1
T4 I tweeted 15min in advance that the 4172.00 price level is going to be interresting for long trades. When the market came there I saw some trapped bears and willingness to climb so I entered. Nice trade. +11
T5 This was great lesson for me to remember not to chase the market. Always let the market come to you and join at wholesale, never join the retail mass. That is exactly what I did here and the market reacted accordingly and picked up my stop loss with 1 tick precision. -12
T6 I was frustraded from the previous trade and did reentry in YM. And again -12
T7 Market moved higher and I changed my view on it. I was looking for an opportunity for short trade. I saw that NQ as the only market (from the 4 I am watching) was able to create higher high. I entered short, but the market decided to test the MID before falling. -7
T8 Long in YM from preplanned support was a big mistake. Too hasty, without any other confirmation. -12
T9 Very nice long in Dow Jones. I saw other markets rise and desperate bears trying to push more down without any luck. Entered at excellent price and altogether I had just 1 tick heat. It is very easy to manage such a trade. When I saw the first momentum, I decided to give the market more space. +42
T10 Short in Nasdaq. Looking back, I see it as too aggressive. I missed the first momentum already and I entered too low, so I killed the position at +5
T11 Very nice long in NQ from MID. I took a quick +8 and called it a day.

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Elite_Member
Wiltshire, United Kingdom
 
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Hi Pepe,
In reference to your first post, your English is excellent. One question though, when you say you have blackouts I am guessing you mean the power to your computer. If so then could you buy a backup battery power supply? I use one of these CyberPower Intelligent PFC LCD 1300VA UPS | CP1300EPFCLCD-UK so if the power goes out the backup provides power without a flicker for about 30 minutes or so. Long enough to properly close all your positions and shut down safely. The street I live in used to have some power issues and that was something I worried about.

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  #13 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
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matthew28 View Post
Hi Pepe,
In reference to your first post, your English is excellent. One question though, when you say you have blackouts I am guessing you mean the power to your computer. If so then could you buy a backup battery power supply? I use one of these CyberPower Intelligent PFC LCD 1300VA UPS | CP1300EPFCLCD-UK so if the power goes out the backup provides power without a flicker for about 30 minutes or so. Long enough to properly close all your positions and shut down safely. The street I live in used to have some power issues and that was something I worried about.

Hello Matthew,

thank you for the advice. I do have APC backup battery and I am trading on my notebook (with battery) so I am prepared for some el. shortages.

Blackout is more psychological terminus technicus. From the trading point of view it means those instances when you don't trade normally but trade like gambler or psycho (for lack of better term). Everybody experiences it littlebit differently - some may trade too much (me), some widen their stop loss (aka marry the position), some will don't care about their daily maximum stop loss and will trade until they loose substantional part of their account. Different people have also different triggers for this behaviour - some have tendency to do it when they loose too much, some do it when they miss a great trade etc.

There are blackouts also in other areas than trading. For example it happens also in poker, where it is called ''the tilt''.

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Bratislava, Slovakia
 
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Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

This week’s results scream at me ”NOT READY YET”. Even when I ended up in positive numbers it is not that easy and effortless trading I used to have when I was achieving the best results. Partly because the markets are just coming back to normal, but mostly because hasty nervous trading.

As always, I am attaching trading log



Overall results and equity (from 7th of January, 2015):


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Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

2.2.2015 trading results

Today's trading was tough fight for me but with happy ending. I was totally frustrated at the beginning after I was stopped 3 times in a row with market hitting my stop losses with unbelievable precision (it went just 2 ticks, 5 ticks and then 1 tick below my SL). Needless to say that in all of these cases, market shot in my direction with great volatile move. This means I was right with the entry but I didn't calculate with the volatile moves. Partly my mistake and partly simply bad luck. Very important (specially for me, since I am hot headed) was that I didn't loose my mind and didn't start to make stupid trades to reduce the loss. I waited patiently until I saw next opportunity and then I shot back with excellent precision with Trade 4, which erased my loss and I made some money on top of it. I made two quick trades later in the evening and called it a long and hard day.




T1 This was very nice setup, entry price was also ok. I could argue with myslef about not taking the first momentum target at 8-9 ticks, but according to the tape, I was expecting much bigger movement. So the market firs touched my PT at 10 ticks, I was not filled and then went 2 ticks below my stop loss, just to make sure it gets filled -12

T2 I didn't reenter on the same level but waited for pullback. I was right with the structure again and market really pulled back before it rallied up. I placed quick order after it stoped moving down and was happy about my good price until the market made yet another volatile jump down taking my SL out again. -6

T3 Another break entry. Again very nice situation on tape. I saw many hasty bears trying to push the market but they run out of breath. I entered long, market moved and touched my PT at +12 without triggering it and after that it went down just one tick below my SL. Dejavú and frustration. -8

I promised myself I won't do any hasty trades and enter just in clear setups, I kept waiting until I saw another opportunity for break in NQ.

T4 This was again excellent orderflow situation. Trapped bears in agony couldn't get out of the position. I nearly felt sorry for them. I placed my LIMIT order well before the market moved to it's price level. It is all about wholesale This allowed me to use very limited risk and I almost didn't have to manage the trade at all. After the market returned for my LMT order, it rallied up very fast. I had heat 3 ticks for approx. 3 seconds. This is perfect example of sniper trade, this is how I like to trade. I saw great volatility and strong market so I moved my PT just before the high of the day. It took the market just 2 minutes and 46 seconds before it reached it. $190 in 3 minutes, you gotta love trading sometime.+38

This is the moment when I placed my limit order in the market, waiting for the market to trigger it:




T5 I tried quick long but couldn't get out at +7. I didn't want to risk more so I got out at BE+1

T6 Another long, while feeding on hasty bears stop losses. This time in DowJones. Even when I saw the potential to move to the POC, I opted for quick +7



Today's results:

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Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

Video of yesterday's winner in Nasdaq. +38 ticks with a single contract.
» 2.2.2015 winner ($190 trade)

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  #17 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

Nasdaq proved again that it can live it´s own life and doesn’t care for correlation with otherwise correlating markets. Not really ideal situation for me. I tried to limit my risk to minimum, resulting in lot of missed trades but the strategy proved to be correct.


T1 This is perfect example of a ”sniper” trade. I placed my limit order on very conservative price level and waited for the market. I moved the order several times even lower reacting to the orderflow. Finally I got hit with quick spike. Market moved just single tick beyond my order limit and then climbed up very fast. As a matter of fact, the move was so fast that I couldn’t move my profit target higher and got filled at basic PT. Total time in trade was 8 seconds, heat 1 tick. +10

The moment when I was entering the trade:


T2 Aggressive trade from the same price level, but the market didn’t react as expected so I opted for quick BE+1 and dodged the bullet.

T3 I waited patiently for another opportunity. I missed couple of trades where the market didn’t return for my limit order, but that is part of the game. I enterd dirrectly into trapped bulls this time and took quick +8.

Again the moment when I entered:


Results

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  #18 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
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Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

Do you prepare your entry zones before the opening bell? I do. Look how nicely is Nasdaq respecting them. (I am tweeting my preparation before I start trading)


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  #19 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

Here is another video of low-risk, high profit trade:



Enjoy

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  #20 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 111 received

I am very sick the whole week. Yesterday I couldn't get up from bed to trade, today I was trading but I was not feeling very good yet. Markets have been pretty slow from the beginning but after first hour of trading they have been pretty much dead. I missed very nice opportunity in NQ at 16:12 and after that the volume was very low.



T1 Perfect long in Dow Jones. I took just 7 ticks but I don't see it as a mistake. +7
T2 I was lured into a trap in Nasdaq at high of the day. The market was too strong for short. I managed to cut the loss to 7 ticks. -7
T3 I saw opportunity for long because the markets have been very strong. I killed the position at BE+1 though after it kept returning back. +1
T4 Another long from the same area, this time I took quick 7 ticks after I took the low volume and volatility in to consideration. +7
T5 Not ideal trade, but it worked at the end. I don't like to enter markets with low volume like this one. It was also not ideal area in market structure to enter long. My risk was however very limited. +10

Results

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Hawaii at the beach
 
Experience: Beginner
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Nice journal.
How long have you been using Sierra Chart? What do you like or find better in Sierra chart than NT?
I am looking for a second platform and considering Sierra or Market Delta.

How are you deciding your profit targets? I watched one of your videos on the footprint and tried to figure it out.

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  #22 (permalink)
Bratislava, Slovakia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart, NinjaTrader
Trading: NQ, YM, ES
 
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Posts: 94 since Sep 2012
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I was sick the whole week, so my concentration was not really good. On Wednesday I felt very bad so I didn't trade at all and I remained in the bed. I managed to reduce the number of trades a littlebit but I still took too many trades (21). My win% was just over 60% which is something I am not really happy about. I somehow manage to keep my weekly earnings per contract constantly between 200 and 250 USD.



Equity from January, 7th, 2015


Total results from January, 7th, 2015

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  #23 (permalink)
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Nice journal.
How long have you been using Sierra Chart? What do you like or find better in Sierra chart than NT?
I am looking for a second platform and considering Sierra or Market Delta.

How are you deciding your profit targets? I watched one of your videos on the footprint and tried to figure it out.

Hey, thanx

I am using SC for over a year now. Well, I have to say that in almost every aspect SC is much better than NT. It is much much faster. When you switch from NT to SC the speed is almost unbelievable. It is also extremely configurable and you can configure the graphs much easier. On the other hand it takes some time to learn to work with Sierra.

The reason why I switched from NT - even while I have the lifetime license and I have to pay monthly fee for SC - is the native support of volume profile and footprints in Sierra. Also the support is much better.

I am not saying that NT is bad. Specially if you don't work with orderflow and volume profile. It is probably more user friendly.

Regarding the profit targets. I use the orderflow for timing of my entries as well as managing the whole trade (closing position, planning profit targets etc.).

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Hey, thanx

I am using SC for over a year now. Well, I have to say that in almost every aspect SC is much better than NT. It is much much faster. When you switch from NT to SC the speed is almost unbelievable. It is also extremely configurable and you can configure the graphs much easier. On the other hand it takes some time to learn to work with Sierra.

The reason why I switched from NT - even while I have the lifetime license and I have to pay monthly fee for SC - is the native support of volume profile and footprints in Sierra. Also the support is much better.

I am not saying that NT is bad. Specially if you don't work with orderflow and volume profile. It is probably more user friendly.

Regarding the profit targets. I use the orderflow for timing of my entries as well as managing the whole trade (closing position, planning profit targets etc.).

Thank you. That's what I was wondering on. I am using order flow and profiling. That on NT sucks so much RAM it slows cpu way down.

For your purposes do you mind sharing what package of SC and any extras you have and fees? Thanks much.

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Thank you. That's what I was wondering on. I am using order flow and profiling. That on NT sucks so much RAM it slows cpu way down.

For your purposes do you mind sharing what package of SC and any extras you have and fees? Thanks much.

I use the highest package (lvl 5) and I pay 29 USD per month (I always pay for the whole year in advance and get better price). Besides the SC package I also pay for SC data 35 USD per month + 3.25 USD to CME.

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I was doing lot of changes in my chart settings so I spent some time from the beginning by adjusting to the new look.

I was waiting patiently from the beginning for a good setup.


T1 I saw the first opportunity almost one hour after the opening. I entered long, but the market hit my stop loss dead on. -9
T2 This was mistake. Too aggressive. -7
T3 I didn´t want to take the bottom because all the other markets were falling, so I waited for retest and jumped in. The market was strong and I knew that it will test the high with high probability, so I left the market little room for play. +42

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It was clear after my premarket preparation that the markets will try to continue in uptrend. So, right from the beginning I was looking for some opportunity for long entry.



T1 I tried the first long, but failed to take 16 ticks of profit. I was too greedy, which didn´t pay off as usual. This was not a strong position so I didn´t want to risk more than necessary. I placed the SL at BE+1 where I was hit. +1

T2 Too aggressive. I tought the market is already climbing. Didn´t work so I took small loss. -5

T3 This is controversial trade. I was greedy again and didn´t take the first momentum profit (15ticks). Then I saw how the market is trying very hard to push down without any luck which was for me a signal I am on the right sight. I had to withstand 10 ticks heat. But even when the TICK was at -640 the market couldn’t fall. After 36 min. of pain, I took my $160 gain. No pain, no gain. Arnold would be proud +32


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Today was very tough day for me. It doesn’t matter what type of trader are you, we all need moves in order to make some profits. No moves = no profit. Low volume means low volatility (moves). And that is what happened today. Lack of opportunity is not the only drawback of low volume. The lower the volume, the easier for market makers and quants to move the market. The easier it gets, the more of unexpected moves we can expect (what a sentence).



T1 I saw the willingness to rise in the markets, so I decided to try quick long. Market decided to test lower levels however. I decided the risk is too much to bear so I opted for quick +3 ticks.
T2 Nice entry but I pulled my stop loss to close and got hit. -6
T3 Again, littlebit more aggressive and it payed off this time. +12
T4 This was again quite ok trade but taken too early. I had to cancel in according to my trade management rules. +1
T5 This was the best entry today. Very nice setup, the market trapped a lot of bears inside and I managed to jump in opposite direction at nice price level. I saw the profit potential to POC but decided to take sure +12.


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I saw big improvement in trading during this week. I traded much calmer, took less trades and this all resulted in very nice statistics for the whole week. I had the highest weekly profit since the beginning of this year. 75% win ratio and just 16 trades.


Equity since January 7, 2015


Statistics since January 7, 2015

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Pepe...nice work on the week.
What do you attribute to your calmness and less trades made?

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Pepe...nice work on the week.
What do you attribute to your calmness and less trades made?

Thank you. I decided to take just the most obvious setups and I did concentrate more on win% than on the profit.

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Since I started to post my daily results on my blog I got several responses suggesting that my trading approach is too complicated and I NEED to use something simpler, something easier and I even got several suggestions as to how should I trade (EMAs envelopes seems to be one of the most popular strategies out there). I appreciate any comments so I decided I will write an article about why I think simple approach doesn’t work in trading.



Markets are not easy

First of all let me tell you that trading KISS (keep it simple stupid) strategy is like ”Brain surgery for dummies” or ”Rocket science made easy”. It simply contradicts itself. Before you even start to think about trading, you have to understand what is the market. People see market as something abstract and they don’t have any idea why the market moves one way or the other. Market is the representation of millions people’s decisions around the world. They all watch the market and place their bets (buy or sell orders) according to their best knowledge. If it sounds too chaotic wait for the next piece of information. Every single time when your order gets filled, somebody on the other side of the market auction has to place the opposite bet. In other words – always when you buy, somebody else screams ”what an idiot, it is clearly going down” and he happily sells you the instrument. This is how the market works. If the markets would be so easy and the simple strategies would work, there would be simply nobody to take the opposite side of your bet. And that is clearly not the case, it is quite the opposite as you will discover soon.

There is not such a thing as free lunch

Most of the traders are lured to trading by marketing. We see some sort of advertisement promising us lot of money, yachts, big villas and financial freedom. And all it takes is just to learn these 5 basic rules and you can start making tomorrow. Sounds familiar? Most of the people who are selling trading courses are not profitable traders themselves. They simply make money by selling trading strategies to others. Did you ever wondered why are they so successful in their fraudulent business?

It is simply because they are selling people exactly what they want: ILLUSION.

It is the same concept as weight control pills. There is nothing like pill which will burn fat for you. Everybody who understands a little about diet knows that, but at the same time diet supplement companies are making huge profits by selling the lie. People simply don’t want to hear the truth. They don’t want to hear that they actually have to work out in the gym, that they have to do cardio, that they have to adjust their diet and then it takes time and effort to loose weight. We live in a fast world and we all want everything right now: money, perfect body and success. And even if we know deep down that the only way how to achieve those is trough hard work we cannot resist the illusion of shortcut. Some magic pill which will give us what we need right now. No hard work, no effort just the outcome we wish for. And that is why people will continue to buy weight control pills instead of changing their lifestyle. They will remain fat and supplement companies will keep rising their profits. The same goes for trading. Instead of hard work, and studying the markets people will continue to look for a magic pill. Some easy approach or holy grail which will tell them when to buy and when to sell. If there would be such a thing like indicator, or simple rule when to enter the market, then the markets will simply cease to exist. Who in their right mind would want to take the opposite direction in these cases? Only holy grail which you can find in the markets is to understand them thoroughly. That is the holy grail which will give you an edge over the others who are still believing in magic pills.

Easy prey for market makers

You probably already heard about the rate of success in trading business. Nobody knows for sure but it is estimated that between 80% and 90% of all traders loose money by trading, 10% or 5% break even and only the rest 10% or 5% actually makes money. So, if we consider just this statistics, what do you think is better for you when trading? To go with the crowd, or to go against it? It is obvious that you would fare better if you go against it. But who are those 80% who are constantly loosing and how do they trade? Let’s look at those successful 10% first. Who are they? Who is constantly making money in the markets? The answer is obvious – banks, hedge funds, market makers. Those are the players who created this game and don’t be naive, the only reason why they did, was to make money. We all know that trading is a zero sum game (that is not really true but more about that in some other article), so in order for the big players to make money somebody has to loose money. And who is the looser? Some of you probably guessed already. It is you – the retail trader. Your only purpose in this game is to believe in the illusion of free lunch. That is everything what it takes to loose money. So, how do big players transfer money from your account into their account? Do you think they use some KISS strategy to do it – like crossing EMAs, or CCI divergences? You really think that is how professionals trade? That is why they hire the best brains in the world? That is why they hire mathematical geniuses? So they can tell them to enter long when EMAs cross? Not likely, is it? Those guys are hired to mathematicaly program the behaviour of novice traders into algorithms which are then used to automaticaly trade the markets. And how do they program the behaviour of millions different traders around the world? They can’t of course and that is why they concentrate on a specific group. The group has to be big enough so it provides enough liquidity for them and now comes the most important part of the whole puzzle:

The simpler approach the group is using, the easier for the programmers to program their behaviour into algorithm.

In other words, the easiest prey for the market makers is the novice trader who believes in the illusion of free lunch. Those traders are looking for some simple strategy because they want to make money NOW and without much effort. So which path will they choose? Are they going to start studying and watching the markets for months or years? Of course not, they will google for some simple approach and most of them will end up using Woodies CCIs, EMAs or price action patterns like double tops, double bottoms etc. Most of the novice traders will start with very similar account (5 -15k USD) and they will use very similar money management rules – max. stop loss 2%. With that information in mind, the programer’s job is very easy. He knows at which price level will the novice trader enter and he can guess quite accurately where is his stop loss. So what is he going to do with this information? He will program the algorithm so, that it will constantly lure the novice traders into the markets. Then they will make sure to push the market to the opposite direction to take advantage of their stop loss (which is basicaly market order) and trade the momentum created by them. It is like watching the flock waiting to get slaughtered. If you learn to understand the orderflow in the markets, you can watch the slaugthering every day over and over again.

How not to get slaughtered in the markets?

First of all – don’t be the sheep in the flock. Remember the success rate in this business. If you behave like the others, you will end up like others. And 80% of them end up being slaughtered. They say that trading is the hardest way to make easy money. Trading was never easy and it will never be. The best advice I can give you is the saying from Sun Tzu’s Art of War: Know your enemy! And I will just add that when it comes to trading, everybody is your enemy. Know also who are the ones who are donating money to others (if you don’t know exactly, then it is you). Know who are the big players, how they play and what they want to achieve. But most importantly understand the market, understand why, when and how it moves. You have to know why the market moves one tick higher or lower. If you don’t know the answers to these questions, you are not ready to trade and no KISS trading approach will replace the missing knowledge you NEED to succeed in this business.

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Market Wizard
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Book " Zen in the Markets "

BY Edward Allen Toppel

He was an independent ßoor trader in the S&P 500 futures pit in the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange. He has nearly 20 years of foor experience and has been a member of the
Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to being a trader, he
worked at Bear, Stearns & Company.

In his book he has simple idea " Buy high, sell higher. Sell low, buy lower"
When market is going higher is more likely to continiue to move in same direction.

I have simplest trade system by higher low short lower high and it works.
My problems is that I don't do it consistently, 100 % of time.


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lemons View Post
Book " Zen in the Markets "

BY Edward Allen Toppel

He was an independent ßoor trader in the S&P 500 futures pit in the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange. He has nearly 20 years of foor experience and has been a member of the
Chicago Board Options Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade. Prior to being a trader, he
worked at Bear, Stearns & Company.

In his book he has simple idea " Buy high, sell higher. Sell low, buy lower"
When market is going higher is more likely to continiue to move in same direction.

I strongly disagree with the simple strategy of buying when the market goes up and selling when it goes down. There are exceptions to this rule of course but in general it is not a good idea. It is the same principle which repeats itself over and over again. Take gold for example. Always when you hear that buying gold is the perfect investment from every TV station and newspaper - the opportunity is over and those who have big positions in gold (banks, hedge funds etc.) just need the flock to provide them with liquidity so they can dispose of their positions in liquid market. That is why they advertise in every TV that you should be buying gold. People who have no idea what are they doing will be buying and those who already made profit will happily sell them their position.

And this principle works in the markets since they have been created. There is a very old book, written in 1923. It concentrates on events from late 19th century until beginning of 20th century but it describes these principle with astonishing accuracy. Among other things, it also describes how big players always need to lure the flock into the market when they trade heavy positions so the market doesn´t move against them while they close the position. It is called: Reminiscences of a stock operator by Edwin Lefevre. If you didn´t read it I strongly recommend it to everyone.

Short term trading enviroment is no different. Big players need liquidity also here. So they also make 'advertisements'. It is just littlebit different than (unofficial) advertisement on bloomberg or CNN where some great analyst is explaining that you should buy gold. In this enviroment they advertise simply by market moves. They push the market strongly up and most of the simple traders will buy - because that is what is simple in their opinion, then they get trapped and then slaughtered. It repeats itself over and over again. I am watching it happen on the tape every single day.

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Market Wizard
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For market to move higher it must break previous high.
And before market move higher in most of the time it first makes higher low.

There is chart of NQ last 10 days.



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Today was very short trading day for me. I was done after first 30min since opening. Took two trades, picked bottom and top and reached my daily profit target.


T1 I took the first long after I saw no interest of bears to push down. I had 3 ticks heat for approx. 2 seconds. I took the first momentum. +10
T2 I was trying to go short 2 ticks higher. The market touched my limit order but I was not filled, so I chased the market a little at still acceptable price level but that was the lowest price I was willing to accept. If the market wouldn´t fill my order I would miss this one. I took the primary momentum again. +9

After these two trades I reached my perfect daily profit and quit trading.

Results


And how would I best describe today´s trading? Probably with this song


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On days like today, you have to ask yourself a simple question: ¨Do you really have to trade?'' If your answer is yes, you are in a wrong business. We have FOMC (Federal Open Market Cometee) meeting at 13:00 US CST. That means everybody is playing World War I, sitting in their trenches doing nothing and waiting for the enemy to do the first step. This results in low volume and volatility. Low volume enviroment is the realm of market makers and quants and their algorithms. It is much easier for them to move the market wherever they want because they don't have to fight so many traders. This means higher risk for us - retail traders. On the other hand the volatility is also lower, which means low potential for each trade. Summa summarum it means you have to risk more for lesser profit. The best position in such a market is sitting on your hands.


I was well aware of the situation so my approach was to take only low-risk trades. If I was not able to get into a trade by risking 4 or 5 ticks I would simply let it go.

T1 When I see low volume I try to concentrate more on the market structure. This was a perfect example. I entered in fade with my limit order waiting below the market. It resulted in low-risk trade with 2 ticks heat. In this volatility I am happy even for +9 ticks.

T2 I tweeted 5min before that 4376.50 is interesting price level for me to go long. Market went down, touched exactly this price level and I saw bears trying to push lower without any luck. So I went long. After few secs I saw that bulls have no interest in pushing the market higher so I killed the position at +3

Then I almost felt asleep by watching the market so I decided to stop trading for today. I reached just 50% of my PDP (perfect daily target) today, but I am satisfied.


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For the last couple of weeks I kept testing my trading strategy on the SIM account. I was tweaking the settings, changing the software setups, testing different entry timing tactics and trade management rules. But most importantly I was trying to become confident while trading. My trading become more and more calm, resulting in less trades with higher win% ratio.

I started the final testing stage on January 7, 2015. This is the final statistics and equity since then:



The red marks indicate end of the week, the black ones the daily outcome. Just from a quick look at the equity you can see an uptrend but also improvement since the last 2 weeks ($1.190,92 mark). Drawdowns are more shallow, there are less losers and less trades in general resulting in steeper equity.

I challenged myself to reach 80% win ratio with 20 trades before I go live. Today I fulfilled it. Statistics of the last 20 trades:


In addition I feel very confident and... well I would like to write ready, but I am not sure I would ever feel 100% ready for live trading. But I feel as ready as possible. So, starting from tomorrow I will trade from my live account trying to fulfill my ultimate challenge.

Conditions
Starting capital: $6.533
Instruments: e-mini Nasdaq, e-mini DowJones
Max. contracts: 1
Timeframe: no limit, but I expect to reach the goal in 6-8 weeks
Goal 1: $8.000 cumulative profit ($1.467 profit), which equals 22.46% ROI
Max. drawdown: $1.000 (reaching it would mean fail in this challenge)

After fulfilling the first goal I am planning to start trading with multiple contracts for higher profits.



By the end of this challenge I should be able to answer these questions:

1. Is it possible to start trading with relatively small trading account and become consistantly profitable?
2. How long does it take to become consistantly profitable?
3. How great is the psychological influence on trading while transition from SIM to LIVE account? (by comparing the LIVE and SIM results)

For the record - this is not my firts transition from SIM to LIVE so I already have some experience with LIVE trading. If you are transitioning from SIM to LIVE for the first time, your experience might differ from mine.

I pledge to publish all of my results here with all profits or losses plus everything what I will learned on the way. I hope I will be able to post daily, but even if I don't I will make full disclosure results overview with all great but also bad trades at least on weekly basis.

Let the journey begin!

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Pepe/sniper. Very nice. I like your dedication and commitment to your system and testing before going live. I will continue to cheer you on. Good luck.

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Hey KahunaDog,

thank you for your support. It means a lot.

Good luck to you as well

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February 19, 2015 video summary


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Markets offered just limited number of opportunities for my trading approach.


T1 First trade was dejavú from yesterday. I also picked the bottom of the market (NQ this time) just few ticks from lowest low. Unfortunately after my order was filled, there was too much chaos in the markets and the situation didn't provide me with clear edge anymore so I manualy closed the position at BE+2 according to my trade management rules.

T2 After the YM breaked up from the consolidation I saw unwillingness to return and test lower levels. I entered long and found out I hit the mouse button twice resulting in two waiting limit orders. I was filled before I could cancel one of them. So I had to manage both which scared me at the beginning. I closed the first contract at BE+1 and took the primary momentum with the second one at +8.


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I hope you enjoy my modest picture As you can guess from the pic I am very satisfied with my performance for this week. Let me clear some things first. I was trading just 4 days this week because of the bank holliday in US on monday. Besides that I also decided to start with live trading beginning from Thursday. So I traded Tuesday and Wednesday on SIM account and Thursday and Friday on LIVE account. Because of that I will publish 2 statistics - one for SIM trading and the second one for LIVE trading and I will manualy count the numbers together.

SIM


LIVE stats and equity



Conclusion
I am very happy not just because of the outcome but also because I took all the trades exactly as I was supposed to (maybe except the T2 on Tuesday). I entered at very good prices, most of the time picking the tops and bottoms of the market which exposed me to very limited risk. It is easily visible from the statistics. Maximum trade drawdown during SIM trades was just 3 ticks for all 4 trades, meaning not a single trade was in higher open loss than $15. During the LIVE trading, maximum drawdown was 6 ticks which is still great. Most of the trades have been without any or just with a single tick heat.

This is why I call it sniper daytrading. When executed correctly my approach allows me to enter the trades with extremely limited risk resulting in great RRR (risk-reward-ratio).

Another good sign is that I was not overtrading which is one of my weaknesses. Overall I took just 7 trades, which leaves us with 1.75 trades per day.

Only value which I am not satisfied with is the average winning trade during the LIVE trading. $24.63 is too low, I am trying to reamain above $30 level when trading. This is something I need to work on next week. I have to give the market more space.

Cumulated statistics
Total net P/L: $212.76 (after commissions)
Total commissions: $32.24
Total trades: 7
Winning trades: 7
Win%: 100%
I will enjoy this winner feeling for a day or two and then I will forget about this week because new week starts on monday and the last thing I need is to be cocky or arrogant while trading. That usually results in big losses.

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I will enjoy this winner feeling for a day or two and then I will forget about this week because new week starts on monday and the last thing I need is to be cocky or arrogant while trading. That usually results in big losses.

True, but this was good work anyhow. Go ahead and enjoy it for a while, before you get back into it.

Bob.

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True, but this was good work anyhow. Go ahead and enjoy it for a while, before you get back into it.

Bob.

Thanx bud

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The markets have been totally dead today.


T1 I took single trade at 9:16. All the other markets have been climbing except the NQ. However, I took the long too soon. I realised my mistake right after I took the position but I also saw that the market is going to turn. Therefore I widened my stop loss a little and kept waiting. I was 13 ticks in heat which is a lot for me. I am used to 0-6 ticks of heat when I am right. So when the market provided me with the opportunity to exit the position on BE+1 I gladly took it. +1

I saw one more setup later on but I didn't want to risk anymore in such a dead market. Tomorrow is another day, hopefully with more opportunities.

Results


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Febuary 24
I missed couple of good opportunities today to close the day in a loss.


T1 This was nice trade. The market reacted nicely to my preplanned support level. I took long just 3 ticks from the bottom. However the trade management was a huge fail. There was not really a reason to get out. BE+1

T2 I still cannot understand why I did take this trade. It was short from historical highs. Total crap. I am ashamed. -13

February 25
Today I continued to make mistakes. Even when the market was extremely slow and didn’t offer much opportunities I could end up in black numbers, haven’t I make so many stupid mistakes.


T1 I took the short from what I analysed is a false breaktrough from consolidation. Other markets have been falling. I took the trade prematurely resulting in very bad price and huge risk (not used to 8 ticks). But the biggest mistake was that because of my greed and despite the fact I entered at bad price, I didn’t take 12 ticks profit even when I could. Third mistake was that after I saw the market returning back to my entry point I didn’t close the trade and instead of that kept HOPING that it will return back. Hoping is one of the surest way to lose money in this business. One trade, three mistakes. Not good. -11


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Today´s trading was full of mistakes and frustration. The markets are extremely slow which is not a natural environment for me. There is a very easy recipe to counter such conditions. You simply don't trade or you trade less and take just the best setups. I did the opposite and paid the price for it.


T1 Aggresive entry from MID. The entry was not that bad but I couldn't manage it correctly and after I withstood the heat I killed the position at BE. -0
T2 Premature long. -7
A This was today's best trade. I identified it quite correctly and placed my long limit order. Unfortunately, I didn't get fill.


T3 More aggresive entry for bad price. Managed to get out at -4
T4 Very stupid trade. Makes no sense and in addition I couldn't manage it. -13
T5 This was more guessed trade according to the structure of the market. Also very aggresive. +16
This was the point were I should have stopped trading for today, however I continued watching the market and trading.

T6 Attempt from ORH. Didn't work at all. -9
T7 Short from ORH. I took the trade for very bad price and I was stopped out 2 ticks from high. -7
T8 I took this one too soon. Managed to get out at +2
T9 The stupidest trade of today. I took it couple of minutes before trading day close. I didn't believe that the market might actually move higher. And it didn't, it just moved high enough so it took my SL out exactly 2 ticks from high again. -12
Results:

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After yesterday's fiasco I traded much more carefully today. And it did pay off even when the markets have been dead again.


T1 More aggresive short but still according to my plan. Thanx to good entry price I was able to close the trade at +8 ticks even when the market was rising. +8
T2 Long for a very nice entry price. However after the entry, the market became very chaotic and I didn't want to risk another stop loss at the end of the week. So I killed the position at +4
Results:

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Extremely difficult week to trade, but the real reason why I ruined it was my own head. All I needed to do was not trading when the markets don´t move or have just tiny volume. I did exactly the opposite. I traded too much. The worst day was Thursday when I created -$200 drawdown. I started to recover from it on Friday with results which looks more like me (100% win with 2 trades). I take the whole period as a costly but good lesson. I need to slow down, take only the best setups and slowly recover financially but more important also mentally. I need to regain the confidence in myself and trust in my system. The next few weeks will show how I will be able to accomplish that.

Statistics

Since I switched to LIVE account I am totally $206.70 in loss. Win% is only 50%. I didn’t have such a bad statistics for a long time. During 7 trading sessions (since Thursday last week), I made 18 trades. Half of it on Thursday.

It is difficult to evaluate current week and half of trading. Without Thursday I would be at break even which would be quite ok for a start in such a difficult market. The whole loss was created on Thursday. I need to pay attention for days like this. It is much easier to not create such a huge drawdown on a single day than to come back from it.


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We had quite volatile day finally, but I still managed to make few mistakes. I also had some bad luck when I was not filled in the first trade, but that is part of this business I guess.


Point A I was waiting for the market to come to this point for couple of minutes. I entered long 4 ticks from higher low but I didn't get fill. Moment of my entry:


T1 Nice entry, just 2 ticks from local low but my greed kicked in and I didn't take 12 ticks profit because I was convinced I just catched the bottom of the market. At least I got out after the market returned to my entry point at BE+1

BTW. look how the market reacted to my preplanned support level (green rectangle).

T2 Still convinced that the market will move up, I entered long. Didn't work as expected so I killed the position at -4
T3 This was my best trade of today. Again just 3 ticks from the bottom, I learned from my last mistake (T1) and didn't take any chances when I saw the market struggling with the 4446.00 price level. This time it went much higher, but so is the trading. +8

There is acutally good lesson to be learned from this. If I took quick profit from both T1 and T3 I would be up $100. Second option was to aim higher but again WITH BOTH trades. T1 would end up as it did at BE, but I would cash $100 from T3. So either way I would make more money. THE KEY IS THE CONSISTENCY HERE. If you are not consistent, you usually end up earning less.

So as you can see, I still make some mistakes which I grew up from on SIM account but on the other hand I feel tiny improvements every day. This is much more important for me than actual dollar gain.

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In order to earn money in e-mini Nasdaq or Dow Jones today, you had to have the fastest hands in the east The markets have been quite volatile with extremely quick jump moves which required extremely fast reactions in order to get a good price.


Another thing was very strange auctions on reversals in the market. Many times confusing me and giving me contradictive information.

T1 Too early, but I realized it quickly and killed the position at BE. -0
T2 Reentry, but I realized that the market is not ready to rise yet. +3
T3 Another quick long and quick profit taking +5
T4 Probably the best trade of today, just 1 tick from the local high, though I had to close the position because of the auction +3
T5 Too early but I at least managed the loss -4
T6 Quick short, didn’t work so out at +3
T7 Probably the worst trade today. I was pulled into the long just by the tape. -5
T8 Nice long but there was already low volume and the market didn’t move som I killed it at +5
T9 Nice long just 2 ticks from local low. This was very strange because my profit target was overshoot by 1 tick and I still didn’t get fill. I picked the lmt order with mouse but I didn’t release the mouse button so it should have been there. I don’t know actually what happened here. +4

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I had some technical issues from the beginning today and then some bad luck later on. Good thing is that the markets are starting to move finally.

T1 My bad. Jumped in too early. Stupid trade. -4
T2 - T4 this was series of confusion and technical mistakes. I still can´t figure out what exactly happened during T2 even when I watch it on the video. After I was filled I suddently saw 4 different orders in the market. It looked like this

The stop loss order was just 2 ticks above my entry for some reason and I got stopped out instantly. After that I killed the other orders with ''flatten'' button in SierraChart, however I still saw the orders as pending in my TWS (Interactive Brokers platform). In this mess I still saw this as a short setup so I entered new order but unfortunately I was too confused and by mistake entered long instead of short. Well, this happens as well. As soon as I realized what I did, I killed the position as well and finally entered short but for bad price. I thought that Murphy had his fun with me for today, but he likes me a lot obviously. I placed my profit target at 4456.25 which is the price where the market dropped but I didn't get fill there and the market started to pull back, so I was moving my limit order higher to take at least some profit and suddently my clock alarm window popped up. I use it to remind me of data releases in the markets.
As I was closing the window market moved few ticks below my short order and everything I could do was to close it at BE+1. -2 -1 +1

T5 Finally an entry without any technical difficulties. I took long from pullback into trend. +16
T6 Another long into trend from pullback. This time the timing was even better - more patient. +7
T7 I entered long from nice 30min structure, tape was also very clear - lot of trapped bears. This is the setup I am usually waiting for. However somebody more powerful (and cunning) pushed the market even lower. During the whole period I was convinced the market has to rise so I gave the market room. As you can see from the picture, the market dropped with tick precision exactly at the price level where my stop loss was (and unlike the profit target, it is stop order so I was filled). After that it climbed back like crazy. ''Thank you'', Murphy -12
T8 Quick aggressive short after some trapped bulls. +8

Suma sumarum, I ended up with slight profit today but most importantly I learned a lot again.

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I could synchronize with the markets today quite well. I messed up timing of the first two entries and therefore I started with a small loss even when the markets moved in desired direction. Nasdaq also reacted nicely to preplanned support (near T1).


T1 Premature long. I opted for quick 3 ticks loss when I realized it. -3
T2 Another premature long. This time even with bad trade management. -8
T3 Probably trade of today. I went short just 2 ticks from high of today. +12
T4 Quick probe trade. Didn't went as I planned so I opted for quick +1
T5 Long from the exact local low. +6

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The previous week was disaster. This week my trading started to look better. The markets started to move finally as well.

What I need to work on are premature entries and reducing the average loss (trough better entries). Another area which requires improvement is increasing the average profit per trade. The average profitable trade this week was $26.55. Ideally it should be higher than $30. The percentage of profitable trades rised to 60.71%. Ideally it should be in 75-80% range.

Good news is that even when the profits have been small, I made profit every single day of the week. I ended up this week with $146.88 profit and managed to decrease the drawdown from previous week. From the beginning of LIVE session during very tough market period I am down only $60.

Alltogether, I am quite satisfied with my progress so far. The most importatnt for me is to remember that this phase of trading is not about earning lot of money, but about building confidence and basis for future multicontract trading.



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Step by step I am slowly improving my trading. The market was also moving quite nice today.


T1 Somehow I still make at least one mistake per day. This entry was again premature. -7
T2 Reentry on the same idea, this time even the timing was right. +12
T3 Tried a littlebit more aggresive short. I didn't see what I wanted to see on the tape so I killed the position at BE+1
T4 Went long just 2 ticks from local low. +12
My trading results are also starting to look more like what I was used to.

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I started visiting MMA classes and my trading suddently got more difficult


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Accuracy of sniper shots is influenced by three main factors: weapon system (rifle + optics + accessories), ammunition and the shooter himself. Each of these components are equally important. Take the best modern sniper rifle with floating barrel, put the best scope on it, reload accurate ammunition adjusted for the rifle's chamber and put it all into hands of someone who never shot rifle before and he won't be able to hit a barn at 500 meters. If you put old rusty rifle in the hands of skilled sniper he won't be able to achieve the accuracy he is used to. As you can see, if you replace just one of these three components with inadequate one the result is terrible.

Trader relies as well on 3 pillars when trading: money management, trade management and trader himself.

Money Management is the foundation of the whole trading system. Without clearly defined variables of Money Management, trader should never start with live trading. It is like if the sniper went on mission without ammunition. Without solid Money Management rules the trader doesn't know how much can he risk per trading session, he doesn't know how big basic stop loss can he afford, he doesn't know what profits he should aim for to achieve planned gains, he doesn't know what win ratio to expect, he doesn't know what draw down is still in a norm and what is already a sign that something is wrong and he needs to stop trading at all. Without Money Management, trader doesn't know when to add new contracts to the positions and he doesn't know what basic capital he needs to start trading.

Trade Management is the trader's rifle. It defines exact rules how and when the trader enters the trade, what stop loss to use in which situation, how to manage the position in loss and when to take profits. Similarly like sniper continuously cares about his rifle, also the trader never stops to adjust trade management to current market situation. If there is low volume in the markets, trader needs to calculate with wider stop lossses, trade only perfect setups and take profits quickly. Vice-versa in higher volatility trader aims for more distant profits, entries are faster and management of open position more aggressive.

Trader himself is the most important element of success. He can have perfect money management rules, detailed trade management with clearly defined rules, but if he doesn't follow the rules when trading the whole system is useless and his capital will keep shrinking. I was blessed to be a part of bigger trading group where we all traded the same system. It means we had the same tools, same approach, very similar rules and still I saw that just few of us have been successful. Clearly the system was working well and still just few managed to actually FOLLOW THEIR OWN RULES and become successful.

to be continued...

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Today I managed to pick several tops and bottoms with great precision, but I added also some sloppy trades to the mix. I ended up in profit again, but I could have done better without those trades. I tried couple of trades in Dow Jones and both ended up in a loss. I think I will concentrate more on Nasdaq in the future.

T1 I picked up the bottom 4 ticks from low. +4
T2 I picked up the top 4 ticks from high. +6
T3 I tried long in DowJones but had bad price. I opted for quick loss instead of giving the market more space. Even when I can see retrospectively that it would have ended up in profit, I still think that it was good decision. -5
T4 I picked local low just 2 ticks from low. +6
T5 Bad trade, bad management. I took it too prematurely. -8
T6 This was more of a reentry in different market. Still bad idea. -6
T7 Finally a trade which made a little money as well. +18

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I rolled over and traded the new contract month today.


I missed the first opportunity for long at 8:34 from my preplanned zone in NQ (point A). After that I kept waiting for some nice setup. (T1) That came after the market pulled back and looked like it is going to bounce off the MID. I forgot the report comming out and jumped in as I saw weak bears trying to push quickly down. My $85 profit target was filled in 15 seconds.

T2 Another good opportunity arose at 9:08 when the market reacted to my preplanned support level again. I waited until the orderflow showed me that bears are not interrested to push lower anymore and I went long for a very nice price. I didn't want to risk anymore so I opted for quick $45 after the market lost the primary momentum.

Suma summarum I reached my perfect daily profit (range $80 - $120) in first half an hour of trading. Keeping in mind that it is friday and rollover period I simply stopped trading and dedicated my time to other activities.

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Sniper what are the marks in the candles?
Is that the point of control? As in the most bids and asks per candle.

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Are you asking about the yellow dots? It just marks certain type of PA situation in the market and it is very hard to describe without going too much into detail. However, it is part of my historical develpement as a trader and has little impact on my trading in current stage.

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I was done for today after initial 50min. I reached my PDP (perfect daily target), so I was reluctant to trade more. I took first long near the low of the market and as you can see, it was also a good lesson why to take your first profit target quickly. The market fell littlebit lower to rebounce and move higher.


I took short position after I saw the agony of premature longs (simple traders). First, the market makers created a situation where they ''advertised'' long situation for the simple trader. And they catched a lot of them this time. Simple traders kept buying and buying and market makers ate their market orders with their sell limits (to prevent the market to move higher) resulting in a situation which I call ''the trap''. Now we see lot of simple traders already in the position wondering why the market doesn't move. They cannot get out and they keep hoping that the market will eventually rise. Market makers wait until they see they have trapped enough of them. They enable market to move just littlebit higher so the last latecomers will join in. After few minutes of agony they let the market fall with one objective in mind: to feed on the poor simple trader's stop limits, which are in fact sell orders so they help the market to fall even lower. Of course I joined the market makers in their filthy game and took quick profit. I will take a shower after I am done here


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When I started my blog I promised to share the good but also the bad. And there is always lot of bad days in trading. Even the best traders have bad days from time to time. For traders the bad day usually means that he lost a lot o money. And since I promised to share everything, here it is – the biggest loss per day since I started this round of live trading:


T1 was very premature and I was not able to close it sooner.
T2 another premature entry, this time even worse than the previous
T3 I catched this one very high and of course the following stop run hit my (widened) stop loss
T4 long in YM, quite good, but I couldn’t withstand the market noise. My profit target was exactly at 17910 where the market eventually climbed
T5 and T6 were ok trades, but I took them too prematurely and I again couldn’t withstand the market noise so I closed both
T7 stupid
T8 stupid
T9 and T10 both prematurely
From the beginning I saw that the markets are falling and not behaving normaly. In that case (if you are not already in the market from the top) the best position is to sit on your hands and wait until the market callms down. My stubborness costed me dearly. $309 to be exact. Expensive lesson, I hope I will learn from it. What is even worse I broke my money management rule (max. daily loss $150).


So what do I do now? Nothing. I will continue to trade as if nothing happened. It may sound stupid at first, but if your trading plan is solid (and mine is, which was proven by SIM period), than the only thing you can do is nothing. I wouln’t try to cut the drawdown because it would make me more aggressive and that is something you don’t want to do if you are losing. Quite the opposite I will try to take just the best setups and trade with more caution.

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I am slowly regaining confidence after last week's fiasco. Today, I reached my perfect daily target after 30min of trading.


T1 was a mistake. I took the trade too early. After I realized that, I quickly closed the position at BE+1
T2 I picked the highest high 6 ticks from high. I didn't want to risk anything and took quick +9 ticks
T3 I went long after I saw struggle of bears to push the market lower. +10

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Today, market was testing my patience... and I succeeded. There have been literally just couple of good opportunities. I missed one of them because I couldn´t react quickly enough and then I didn´t want to chase the market so I let it go. I ended up with a single trade.



T1 After I saw that I am not able to enter the market with limit order efficiently I opened this long with market order. Very quick trade (30 secs) with 2 ticks heat. +12

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Very low volume and almost dead market today. The whole day was again about patience.

T1 Even when I was expecting the market to move higher and thus having a long bias, this short came from my preplanned zone after I saw buyers fading out. I picked the local high pretty good but because of low volume in general I also didn´t see enough sellers comming in. I decided to close the position at BE+1

T2 This was again few ticks from local low. I had just 2 ticks heat. MID and low provided barrier to hide my stop loss behind. Soon after my entry the market rallied. Having the low volume in mind I aimed just for the closest logical target which was 9 ticks away in this case.

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Sorry for my naive question. I want to know how to decide the entry and exit points in the order flow.
go long if cumulative delta is green?

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My goal for this week was to regain confidence. I was trying to trade just the best setups with controlled risk. I was trading just 4 days (Tuesday till Friday). Most of the time the markets have been quite slow, specialy on Friday.

I had 3 winning days + loss on Wednesday. Except Wednesday I had 100% win ratio (Wed just 33.33%). The total profit is not very impressive but it is the first step towards recovery from previous period of bad weeks.

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microsat View Post
Sorry for my naive question. I want to know how to decide the entry and exit points in the order flow.
go long if cumulative delta is green?

The best answer to that question is to fully understand what is going on in the market. Orderflow is a perfect tool to analyze the market moves. You can see what is really going on before the market ticks up or down. Your goal should be to understand and recognize specific situations in orderflow.

Soon it will feel like market is trying to "tell you something" and you just have to listen. You have to observe what is market trying to do and how successfuly. Then you can create your own entry and exit points.

If you are looking for some easy and simple ´switch-like´ setup where you enter according what some indicator does then I will disappoint you. Orderflow doesn´t work like that.

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Another difficult day. Markets kept falling from the beginning and when the consolidation started the volume faded away leaving me with little chance to enter the market properly. And to add to my misery I had also some technical difficulties when I entered the market twice by mistake.

T1 Was good trade which simply didn´t work out. Only Nasdaq broke the microconsolidation down with volatile bar, I saw some trapped bears followed by lack of interest to sell lower. So I went long. As the position returned to test the low again I cancelled it with flat shortcut and got 3 ticks slippage. -9

Point A This could have been aggressive short entry (for me) but I am currently trying to avoid those trades, so I didn't take it.

T2 and T3 Average trade, not so clear from beginning. I was trading more structure of the market than actual market auction. The market went my way exactly to touch my profit target but I didn´t get fill. I should have closed the position right away but I gave it too much space. Then I closed it with flat shortcut when it came close to my stop loss, but at the same time market triggered my actual stop loss. So I got out from the position and my platform opened reverse (short position) resulting in additional loss. -11; -3

Point B This was very clear setup which I missed (I was paralysed )

T4 and T5 First I enterd too early. I realised my mistake and cancelled the position at BE. Then I did reentry after the market tested the willingness of bulls to buy higher with negative response. After I entered I saw some bad signs in auction so I opted for a quick exit at BE-2, but instead of hitting flat shortcut I hit the sell shortcut so I added antoher contract to already bad position. Then I flated both contracts. 0; -3; -1

T6 Finally very nice trade from the local high. I knew I am correct after I watched the auction at the price levels of my entry but I didn't want to risk homerun. I needed to lower my drawdown. So I opted for quick +10.

T7 I was waiting for this setup from the last entry and I planned it as my last entry for today. Volume was already at critical levels and in such conditions I am losing my edge. Very nice and quick trade without any heat. Again I opted for quick +10 to lower my drawdown.

After all the technical difficulties, missed opportunities and bad market, the -$67 loss feels like small victory

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February 3rd, 2016


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