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cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal
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cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal

  #1 (permalink)
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cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal

Hi all,

First journal post so I thought I'd explain myself a little. I'm not planning to use this thread as a way to describe my trading plan or strategy(ies) and report on how they are doing as it seems is common for these journals. Instead I plan to basically copy and paste my morning analysis from my trading ledger each morning and then follow up with updates on trades taken and not taken during the day. Feel free to ask questions related to my trading plan, analysis and/or trading strategies and I will answer them, but I didn't want to spend a lot of time typing if there is no interest.

I don't like threads that go on for hundreds of pages as I think the information in them gets lost, so I'm going to experiment with one thread per month and see how that works. I may go to one thread a week or one thread per quarter, depending on how long this thread turns out to be.

A little bit of detail on my trading. I watch and trade GC from 0800 to 1130 New York time. I also trade the news releases on 10 other contracts (6a, 6e, 6c, 6j, 6b, CL, NG, ES, NQ, YM).

Anyway, here is my morning analysis from this morning. I welcome your feedback and questions.

Daily chart of GC shows no trend with most recent pivot high at $1239 and most recent pivot low at $1141.70. Price is currently in the middle of that range. There is some supply at the top of the range extending down to $1222.10.

The hourly chart is showing sideways movement with a bullish move currently underway. Most recent pivot high is at $1198 and most recent pivot low is $1177.80. Some supply is evident from 1197.80 to 1195.70 but it is pretty weak with possible demand at $1189.50 to 1186.50. Price is currently reacting to this demand level so it's too early to tell how strong it may be. Early indications are it may be decent.

15 minute chart is showing a weak bullish trend in the pre-market session with possible demand at $1183.80 to $1181.70.

Didn't sleep much last night, so I'm tired this morning and getting a late start. I'll have to be careful about my entries and attention span this morning. Not going to trade the pre-market because of the late start.

As I was finishing this entry, price penetrated the hourly pivot high and then dropped down. This re-enforces the bullish tendency in the pre-market.

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Bad day to trade today, woke up late, then had to run an errand this morning and missed the open. Back now.

GC has continued the bullish trend after the open so looking for long entries. Only about an hour to go in my trading session, so may not get any trades in at all today.

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End of Session Recap

It was a poor trading day. Began with a late start and then errands in the morning, then I had to leave early to do more errands. Took 2 trades, one loser that hit the initial stop and one break even that hit the trailing stop.

First trade was long at 1201.10. Entered after price had made a new high (on 5 min chart) at 10:32 and then pulled back. Trade was never in my favor and I got stopped out before I manually killed it.

Second trade was long at 1201.20. Entered after price failed to make a new low (on 5 min chart) at 10:36. Price continued to climb so stop was moved up to break even + 2 ticks and the trade was left alone. Price moved up as high as +5 or 6 ticks but then pulled back to stop me out.

Overall down on the a day I probably should not have trade on anyway. Oh well, at least I'm keeping my average trades per day in the 2 or 3 range (for federal tax status purposes, stupid I know, but that's the government for you...).

Better trades tomorrow.

I've include a screen shot below that shows the trades. Not much on it as my entries are determined by price action on the DOM. It is telling that I was attempting to go long at the top of the morning session move.

Attached Thumbnails
cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-gc.2015.01.05.eos.jpg  
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Jan 6 Pre-market Analysis

Daily chart of GC shows no trend with most recent pivot high at $1239 and most recent pivot low at $1141.70. Price is currently near the top of that range. There is some supply at the top of the range extending down to $1222.10.

Hourly chart is showing a bullish trend as well. Most recent pivot high at $1214.4 and pivot low at $1201.6. No good supply on the hourly chart and demand still looks like $1189.50 to 1186.50 but it's not very strong.

15 minute chart is showing a bullish trend in the pre-market with pivot high at $1214.4 and pivot low at $1206.70. No better demand has formed so sticking with $1183.80 to $1181.70.

Rested better last night and got up on time for analysis and to trade the pre-market.

News at 10 am: non manufacturing PMI which might cause some movement in the U.S. Equity markets and GC. Will be watching to see if a trade opportunity develops around that.

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loss limit hit

already hit my limit of 3 losses in one session.

I was mis-applying price action, using the DOM to try to predict what the market would do next instead of allowing price location to determine the highest probability next move and using price action on the DOM to confirm the entry. Lesson learned (I hope).

First trade was short as the 5 min chart was in a downtrend and I expected it to continue. Price rallied a bit and then started to stall so I thought price would resume the downward trend and entered the trade. Got filled and price stalled, moved stop closer to entry and got stopped out.

Second trade was long after price had rallied to near the globex high. Price fell off the high and stalled and I thought it would rally back up. Price stalled again after the fill and I moved the stop closer to entry and got stopped out.

Third trade was long after price dropped a bit and stalled. After entry price went up 3 or 4 ticks then stalled, moved stop to break even. Price was still stalled so I moved the target down to 4 ticks but was stopped out at BE for a commission loss.

Overall lost 4 ticks and 3 round trip commissions.

Attached Thumbnails
cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-gc.2015.01.06.eos.jpg  
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Jan 7 Pre-Market Analysis

Daily chart of GC shows primarily sideways movement with a possible new pivot high at $1223.3. The established pivot high at $1229 still holds as the new pivot may just be a relatively short term reaction to the supply zone starting at 1222.10.

The hourly chart still shows an upward trend with pivot high at $1223.3 and pivot low at $1205.4. No supply or demand evident between the pivot high and low. Still using $1189.5 to $1186.5 as demand on the hourly chart.

15 minute chart shows GC has been in a sideways trend with bearish tendencies in the globex session. Globex high is at $1219.4 and globex low is at $1211.10

5 minute chart shows a clear downward trend since 0500.

Today will probably be a news driven day, and a little subdued in the morning session with the FOMC meeting minutes due out at 1400 today. Other news of note includes the ADP employment change, Canadian and US trade balances, Canadian PMI and crude oil inventories. Those news events are probably the best trading opportunities today will present.

Well rested again and feeling good about the day. A little apprehensive as I changed the DOM I use for trade entry evaluation and will have to spend some time to get used to the new features and format. Trade entries will also be made on the 5 min chart now instead of the DOM, which will take some adjustment.

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end of session recap

Had 5 events to trade in the morning session. Here's how it worked out.

ADP non-farm payroll news, attempted to trade the news using NQ. I missed the trade. The potential trade was a short off the initial upward price move but I hesitated and midded the entry.

Trade Balance (US, not Canadian), traded the news using GC. Bought near the bottom of the initial downward move and moved my stop to break even as price passed the half way point to my profit target. Price reversed and stopped me out for a 1 tick winner.

Market Open, traded the market open using NQ. Sold near the top of the initial upward move and moved stop to break even as price passed half way to target. Price reversed and stopped me out for a 3 tick winner.

Canadian Ivey PMI, attempted to trade using 6C. no trade set up, so I skipped this one.

Crude Oil Inventory, traded using CL. The CL reaction to the news was very slow to develop but it did drop a lot eventually. Was able to get long near the bottom and catch a quick 10 tick retracement. It retraced a lot more than 10 ticks, money left on the table. I try not to cry about that, but it does irk me bit.

not a bad morning session, caught about 14 ticks positive. Will probably be back to see if there is anything tradeable around 1400 with the FOMC minutes.

Attached Thumbnails
cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.07.1050.cl.eos.jpg   cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.07.1050.gc.eos.jpg   cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.07.1050.nq.eos.jpg  
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Jan 8 Pre-Market Analysis

Considering changing my pre-market analysis routine. It is based off my older chart centric position day trading days and isn't that useful for my very short time frame trading approach. I'll have to look around the forums and see if there are any other ideas that may suit my new trading style a little better. If you have any ideas, please let me know.

Daily chart of GC shows sideways movement with a pivot high at $1223.3 and a pivot low at $1167.3. These pivots are inside the prior pivot high and low suggesting a range may be developing. No supply or demand withing the pivots, but supply at $1239 to $1222.1 is still valid, having been touched twice it is pretty weak by now.

The hourly chart shows a choppy downward trend since 11 am yesterday with some stalling at the current pivot low of $1205.4. The pivot high is $1223.3 (shared with the daily pivot high).

The 15 minute chart re-enforces the downward trend analysis, particularly in the Globex session. Price is currently rallying off the Globex low (and hourly pivot low area), making a new pivot high on the hourly and 15 min chart. Downward trend in the Globex session just became a possible sideways range.

5 minute chart is dominated by the recent rally. Demand would be at $1206 to $1205.7 (origin of the recent rally). Supply looks to be somewhere in the vicinity of $1209.4 (top of the rally, so far). Will have to watch and see if any opportunities develop after 8 am

Feeling apprehensive today. Taxes, health care costs and family issues are on my mind, so not very focused at the moment. I'll have to get that in line before 8 or be extra careful about following my rules.

News of note today are 0830 unemployment and 1030 natural gas storage. I'll be watching to see if any opportunities develop around those.

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End of Session Recap


Had 3 events to trade today.

Unemployment Claims, traded using GC. Price moved upward on the news but not a big reaction. Took a short near the top after the price failed to make a new high. Moved stop to break even as the price neared the half way point to the profit target and was stopped out at break even. Gained 1 tick.

Market open, traded NQ. Did not get any setups on the slow movement after the open so did not enter any trades. Speed picked up and rocketed to the upside a few minutes later, but I did not have a setup to enter it so I let it go.

Natural Gas Storage report, traded with NG. Price gapped way up when the report came out and rallied a little bit more before stalling and failing to make a new high. Entered short near the top and price fell as I expected to within 5 ticks of my target. Moved stop first to break even then to about half way to the target and price backed up and stopped me out for 13 ticks.

Not a bad day, 2 trades both winners for 14 ticks.

I am getting stopped out at my trailing stop a lot. This has been an ongoing problem for me. In both of today's trades price would have eventually hit my target before my original stop location. I think the same can be said of yesteday's trades as well. I think this is only a problem because I'm currently trading 1 contract to get used to the new tools I'm using. I would scale out instead of moving the stop so much if I was trading more contracts. Maybe next week I'll go to two contracts and see if that fixes the problem.

If any of you have any thoughts or suggestions on this issue, please feel free to provide some pointers.

Thanks.

Attached Thumbnails
cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.08.1043.gc.eos.jpg   cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.08.1043.ng.eos.jpg  
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