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cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal


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cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Hi all,

First journal post so I thought I'd explain myself a little. I'm not planning to use this thread as a way to describe my trading plan or strategy(ies) and report on how they are doing as it seems is common for these journals. Instead I plan to basically copy and paste my morning analysis from my trading ledger each morning and then follow up with updates on trades taken and not taken during the day. Feel free to ask questions related to my trading plan, analysis and/or trading strategies and I will answer them, but I didn't want to spend a lot of time typing if there is no interest.

I don't like threads that go on for hundreds of pages as I think the information in them gets lost, so I'm going to experiment with one thread per month and see how that works. I may go to one thread a week or one thread per quarter, depending on how long this thread turns out to be.

A little bit of detail on my trading. I watch and trade GC from 0800 to 1130 New York time. I also trade the news releases on 10 other contracts (6a, 6e, 6c, 6j, 6b, CL, NG, ES, NQ, YM).

Anyway, here is my morning analysis from this morning. I welcome your feedback and questions.

Daily chart of GC shows no trend with most recent pivot high at $1239 and most recent pivot low at $1141.70. Price is currently in the middle of that range. There is some supply at the top of the range extending down to $1222.10.

The hourly chart is showing sideways movement with a bullish move currently underway. Most recent pivot high is at $1198 and most recent pivot low is $1177.80. Some supply is evident from 1197.80 to 1195.70 but it is pretty weak with possible demand at $1189.50 to 1186.50. Price is currently reacting to this demand level so it's too early to tell how strong it may be. Early indications are it may be decent.

15 minute chart is showing a weak bullish trend in the pre-market session with possible demand at $1183.80 to $1181.70.

Didn't sleep much last night, so I'm tired this morning and getting a late start. I'll have to be careful about my entries and attention span this morning. Not going to trade the pre-market because of the late start.

As I was finishing this entry, price penetrated the hourly pivot high and then dropped down. This re-enforces the bullish tendency in the pre-market.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received


Bad day to trade today, woke up late, then had to run an errand this morning and missed the open. Back now.

GC has continued the bullish trend after the open so looking for long entries. Only about an hour to go in my trading session, so may not get any trades in at all today.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

It was a poor trading day. Began with a late start and then errands in the morning, then I had to leave early to do more errands. Took 2 trades, one loser that hit the initial stop and one break even that hit the trailing stop.

First trade was long at 1201.10. Entered after price had made a new high (on 5 min chart) at 10:32 and then pulled back. Trade was never in my favor and I got stopped out before I manually killed it.

Second trade was long at 1201.20. Entered after price failed to make a new low (on 5 min chart) at 10:36. Price continued to climb so stop was moved up to break even + 2 ticks and the trade was left alone. Price moved up as high as +5 or 6 ticks but then pulled back to stop me out.

Overall down on the a day I probably should not have trade on anyway. Oh well, at least I'm keeping my average trades per day in the 2 or 3 range (for federal tax status purposes, stupid I know, but that's the government for you...).

Better trades tomorrow.

I've include a screen shot below that shows the trades. Not much on it as my entries are determined by price action on the DOM. It is telling that I was attempting to go long at the top of the morning session move.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Daily chart of GC shows no trend with most recent pivot high at $1239 and most recent pivot low at $1141.70. Price is currently near the top of that range. There is some supply at the top of the range extending down to $1222.10.

Hourly chart is showing a bullish trend as well. Most recent pivot high at $1214.4 and pivot low at $1201.6. No good supply on the hourly chart and demand still looks like $1189.50 to 1186.50 but it's not very strong.

15 minute chart is showing a bullish trend in the pre-market with pivot high at $1214.4 and pivot low at $1206.70. No better demand has formed so sticking with $1183.80 to $1181.70.

Rested better last night and got up on time for analysis and to trade the pre-market.

News at 10 am: non manufacturing PMI which might cause some movement in the U.S. Equity markets and GC. Will be watching to see if a trade opportunity develops around that.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

already hit my limit of 3 losses in one session.

I was mis-applying price action, using the DOM to try to predict what the market would do next instead of allowing price location to determine the highest probability next move and using price action on the DOM to confirm the entry. Lesson learned (I hope).

First trade was short as the 5 min chart was in a downtrend and I expected it to continue. Price rallied a bit and then started to stall so I thought price would resume the downward trend and entered the trade. Got filled and price stalled, moved stop closer to entry and got stopped out.

Second trade was long after price had rallied to near the globex high. Price fell off the high and stalled and I thought it would rally back up. Price stalled again after the fill and I moved the stop closer to entry and got stopped out.

Third trade was long after price dropped a bit and stalled. After entry price went up 3 or 4 ticks then stalled, moved stop to break even. Price was still stalled so I moved the target down to 4 ticks but was stopped out at BE for a commission loss.

Overall lost 4 ticks and 3 round trip commissions.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Daily chart of GC shows primarily sideways movement with a possible new pivot high at $1223.3. The established pivot high at $1229 still holds as the new pivot may just be a relatively short term reaction to the supply zone starting at 1222.10.

The hourly chart still shows an upward trend with pivot high at $1223.3 and pivot low at $1205.4. No supply or demand evident between the pivot high and low. Still using $1189.5 to $1186.5 as demand on the hourly chart.

15 minute chart shows GC has been in a sideways trend with bearish tendencies in the globex session. Globex high is at $1219.4 and globex low is at $1211.10

5 minute chart shows a clear downward trend since 0500.

Today will probably be a news driven day, and a little subdued in the morning session with the FOMC meeting minutes due out at 1400 today. Other news of note includes the ADP employment change, Canadian and US trade balances, Canadian PMI and crude oil inventories. Those news events are probably the best trading opportunities today will present.

Well rested again and feeling good about the day. A little apprehensive as I changed the DOM I use for trade entry evaluation and will have to spend some time to get used to the new features and format. Trade entries will also be made on the 5 min chart now instead of the DOM, which will take some adjustment.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Had 5 events to trade in the morning session. Here's how it worked out.

ADP non-farm payroll news, attempted to trade the news using NQ. I missed the trade. The potential trade was a short off the initial upward price move but I hesitated and midded the entry.

Trade Balance (US, not Canadian), traded the news using GC. Bought near the bottom of the initial downward move and moved my stop to break even as price passed the half way point to my profit target. Price reversed and stopped me out for a 1 tick winner.

Market Open, traded the market open using NQ. Sold near the top of the initial upward move and moved stop to break even as price passed half way to target. Price reversed and stopped me out for a 3 tick winner.

Canadian Ivey PMI, attempted to trade using 6C. no trade set up, so I skipped this one.

Crude Oil Inventory, traded using CL. The CL reaction to the news was very slow to develop but it did drop a lot eventually. Was able to get long near the bottom and catch a quick 10 tick retracement. It retraced a lot more than 10 ticks, money left on the table. I try not to cry about that, but it does irk me bit.

not a bad morning session, caught about 14 ticks positive. Will probably be back to see if there is anything tradeable around 1400 with the FOMC minutes.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Considering changing my pre-market analysis routine. It is based off my older chart centric position day trading days and isn't that useful for my very short time frame trading approach. I'll have to look around the forums and see if there are any other ideas that may suit my new trading style a little better. If you have any ideas, please let me know.

Daily chart of GC shows sideways movement with a pivot high at $1223.3 and a pivot low at $1167.3. These pivots are inside the prior pivot high and low suggesting a range may be developing. No supply or demand withing the pivots, but supply at $1239 to $1222.1 is still valid, having been touched twice it is pretty weak by now.

The hourly chart shows a choppy downward trend since 11 am yesterday with some stalling at the current pivot low of $1205.4. The pivot high is $1223.3 (shared with the daily pivot high).

The 15 minute chart re-enforces the downward trend analysis, particularly in the Globex session. Price is currently rallying off the Globex low (and hourly pivot low area), making a new pivot high on the hourly and 15 min chart. Downward trend in the Globex session just became a possible sideways range.

5 minute chart is dominated by the recent rally. Demand would be at $1206 to $1205.7 (origin of the recent rally). Supply looks to be somewhere in the vicinity of $1209.4 (top of the rally, so far). Will have to watch and see if any opportunities develop after 8 am

Feeling apprehensive today. Taxes, health care costs and family issues are on my mind, so not very focused at the moment. I'll have to get that in line before 8 or be extra careful about following my rules.

News of note today are 0830 unemployment and 1030 natural gas storage. I'll be watching to see if any opportunities develop around those.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received


Had 3 events to trade today.

Unemployment Claims, traded using GC. Price moved upward on the news but not a big reaction. Took a short near the top after the price failed to make a new high. Moved stop to break even as the price neared the half way point to the profit target and was stopped out at break even. Gained 1 tick.

Market open, traded NQ. Did not get any setups on the slow movement after the open so did not enter any trades. Speed picked up and rocketed to the upside a few minutes later, but I did not have a setup to enter it so I let it go.

Natural Gas Storage report, traded with NG. Price gapped way up when the report came out and rallied a little bit more before stalling and failing to make a new high. Entered short near the top and price fell as I expected to within 5 ticks of my target. Moved stop first to break even then to about half way to the target and price backed up and stopped me out for 13 ticks.

Not a bad day, 2 trades both winners for 14 ticks.

I am getting stopped out at my trailing stop a lot. This has been an ongoing problem for me. In both of today's trades price would have eventually hit my target before my original stop location. I think the same can be said of yesteday's trades as well. I think this is only a problem because I'm currently trading 1 contract to get used to the new tools I'm using. I would scale out instead of moving the stop so much if I was trading more contracts. Maybe next week I'll go to two contracts and see if that fixes the problem.

If any of you have any thoughts or suggestions on this issue, please feel free to provide some pointers.

Thanks.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Daily chart of GC shows sideways movement with a pivot high at $1223.3 and a pivot low at $1167.3. These are unchanged from yesterday.

Hourly chart shows sideways movement with bearish pressure with a pivot high of $1216.80 and pivot low of $1206.30. There is supply near the top of that range but it's not strong enough to mention.

15 minute chart shows a sideways range for the Globex session with the top being the pivot high of $1214.30 and the bottom being demand at $1209.8 to 1209.3.

New of note: 0830 unemployment rate.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

overtraded this morning already, so calling it a day. Only two events today: unemployment and market open.

Unemployment Rate, traded with GC. Great move in the market in response to the news, down at first and missed the long at the bottom. Price rallied way up and I got short near the top. Price moved in my favor so I moved the stop to break even and price moved back up to stop me out. Another instance of early exit due to stop movement. picked up 2 ticks on the trade

Scalp trade on GC shorting near the top of the Globex range after it seemed to re-establish itself after the volatility of the unemployment news died out. Entered near the top of the range as planned but priced stalled in a 2 tick range. Killed the trade for a 1 tick loss.

Market open, traded with NQ. Here is where the overtrading took place. 4 trades, 2 losers and 2 winners that largly cancelled each other out.

1st trade, attempt to join the downward opening trend. Shorted as price moved back to the low from a small bounce upward at $4238.75. Price stalled at the entry price for a while and then whipsawed up to stop me out before continuing the move down. lost 8 ticks.

2nd trade, attempt to catch a small win on a bounce off a low. noticed price hit a low and failed to make a new low. Entered long at $4238.50 and hit profit target. gained 4 ticks.

3rd trade, atttempt to catch another small win on a bounce off the low. noticed the same setup, price made a new low and failed to make another new low after a short bounce. Entered long at $4236.25 and was stopped out, price never made above the entry price. lost 4 ticks.

4th trade, attempt join the downward move. Entered short at $4230 as price returned to the low from a small bounce. Filled and trade went immediately into profit and hit the first target at $4227.50. Moved stop to break even, and price rallied back up and hit the stop. gained about 15 ticks.

Overall 6 trades with 2 losers and overall positive for the day doesn't seem too bad. Some of those trades I had no business making as the setups were not in accordance with my trading strategies. I ended the day before my limit of 3 losing trades to prevent further overtrading (and more losses).

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Daily chart of GC shows sideways movement with slight bullish tendency, new pivot high of $1231.3 and pivot low of $1204.2. The pivot range is getting smaller.

Hourly chart shows bullish trend with pivot high at $1231.3 and pivot low at $1217.5.

15 minute chart shows an active Globex session, overall sideways movement but a clear upward trend in the early session and now a clear downward trend since 0100. Going to treat this as a downward trend in the Globex session.

This is a very light news week, no news today or tomorrow.

Feeling pretty good coming off a decent week last week. Want to keep up the trend of not overtrading (which I broke on Friday, but one day out of 5 isn't bad). With no news to push the market around today I'' have to try to use my developing tape reading/order flow skills to find some good trades. That makes me a bit nervous.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Done early, hit my 3 losing trade limit already.

No news, so the only event I could trade was the market open. The rest of the trades were based on my ability to read the order flow and/or charts.

First trade was based on a weak 5 min supply zone on GC. Entered short and was stopped out for a 4 tick loss.

Second trade was based on absorption over 3 price levels on the depth and sales, again on GC. Entered long just above the absorption prices and was filled as price started to rise. Price made it to my 5 tick target but I was too far back in line to get filled. I did not manage the trade properly and let price slip all the way back against me before killing the trade for a 2 tick loss.

Third trade was market open on NQ. Price rose and paused, so I entered short as it started to pull back but price had one more bounce left in it which hit my stop before it fell way beyond my profit targets. The high of the move was 2 ticks above my stop. 10 tick loss.

In thinking about the second trade, I noticed that I was so taken up in the fact that the setup worked (new to order flow analysis and trading) that I went into spectator mode instead of staying in trader mode. I watched price stall and hover at my price target without moving the stop up or just exiting the trade for profit target -1 tick. I'll have to be watchful for this mode switch next time, and expect it whenever I'm using new tools or setups to enter trades.

I think that was a valuable lesson, well worth the 16 tick loss it took to sink in.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Daily chart of GC shows a bullish trend with pivot hight at $1244.5 and low of $1204.2.

Hourly chart shows a stronger bullish trend with pivot high at 1244.5 and low at $1233.6.

15 minute chart shows a bullish trend for the Globex session with some sideways chop for the past few hours.

No news today, so I have to be careful with my setups, and I'm kind of tired still. Not sure why, I got a good nights rest, hour wise anyway.

Took 4 trades today, 3 losers and 1 winner, all in the pre-market. I have to be more patient on non-news days...

All trades were in GC.

First trade was long after a big rally looking to try to join the move. Saw a pullback from the high and then some absorption and entered long just above the absorption area. Trade never went in my favor and I lost 4 ticks. Price fell another 2 ticks past my stop before rallying beyond my profit target. Right trade, wrong entry.

Second trade was short after a good price drop. Price rebounded from the low and I saw some absorption again and entered short just below the absorption zone. Got filled as the downward move continued but price started bouncing around +-2 ticks around my entry price. Manually killed the trade when price dropped below my entry again for a 2 tick gain. Price never reached my target on this one but would have hit my stop if I hadn't killed the trade. Wrong trade.

Third trade was long in an area of consolidation on the 5 min chart. Price bounced off the low of the consolidation zone, filled my order and went to within 1 tick of my 5 tick target and paused. Moved stop up a bit, but not to break even as price retraced back to the entry price. Manually exited the trade at the entry price for a commission loss. I'll count this as a 1/2 tick loss. Price again would have hit my original stop, but only went 2 below the stop before rallying up to and beyond my target. Right trade, wrong entry again.

Last trade was short with the entry just below a price that the market did not want to sell into. The price would go bid but nothing would trade there and price would bounce up a couple ticks. This happened several times so I decided that if price did trade there and keep falling, it would be good for 5 or so ticks of profit. Entered when price dropped below the 'untouched' price and the trade never went in my favor for a 4 tick loss. Price continued to rally past my stop, so this was the wrong trade.

I have to work on my patience and discipline on no news days. I'll try this: only 1 trade pre-market on no news days, then I can at least trade the market open and possibly one more trade during the regular session.

Overall down 6.5 ticks.

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Changing my analysis method today. The way I have been doing it was based on my old chart trading, position day trading/swing trading style which I am moving away from in favor of a shorter term trading style. This may evolve over the next couple of days or weeks.

The 5 minute chart of GC is showing sideways movement with a possible channel between $1230.6 and $1227.1.

The 15 minute chart also shows sideways movement in the pre-market with a larger channel from $1233.4 to $1225.6.

During the pre-market I'll be trying to trade one of these channels.


Looking forward to having some news today to give my trading some structure and push the markets. My news trading strategies are chart based but they work, so I will continue trading them. As I review the video of those trades I may be able to transition those trades to depth and sales based entries, or at least depth and sales supported entries.

News today is: 0830 U.S. retail sales, 1030 crude oil inventory

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 cts001 
Tampa, Florida USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, Think or Swim
Trading: ZB
 
Posts: 50 since Dec 2014
Thanks: 55 given, 43 received

Bad day today, performance wise. Also took two trades I had no business taking (both losers).

Three events to trade today: retail sales, market open and crude oil inventory.

retail sales, traded with GC. GC spiked upward on the news and immediately started to fall. Entered short on a brief pullback and price continued to fall making the trade immediately profitable. Price paused and began to bounce about 5 ticks into profit so I manually exited the trade before it could go against me. Price did rally from about 4 ticks below where I exited and made new highs. Wrong trade, but I got lucky and exited for a small profit. +6 ticks.

Market open, traded with NQ. Looks like the retail sales report took the steam off the open or something, no entries so I took no trades.

Next trade was on GC. Price was in a downward move and pulled back a bit, entered short to join the move for a quick 5 tick profit. Got filled and the trade never went in my favor to get stopped out. Wrong trade. Probably should not have taken this trade as I don't have any specific entry criteria defined for it. - 4 ticks.

Third trade was also GC. Still bearish on GC at this point so I attempted another short to join the move. Was filled and stopped out so fast my OCO target order was rejected because the position was already closed. Wrong trade, again. This one should never have been taken in the first place. - 4 ticks

Crude Oil Inventory report was traded with CL. This was not the ideal setup as price was moving down after the news but did not gap. Price was bouncing downward and I saw price fail to make a new low and entered the trade, long. Got filled and the trade never went in my favor as crude made a new low and stopped me out. The next low that price bounced off of was the trade. Right trade, wrong entry. -11 ticks.

Overall on the day, 4 trades, 1 winner, 3 losers for -13 ticks.

I need to refine my report trading strategy to better enter when the price does not fly in one direction or the other. Maybe looking at depth and sales when the price is moving slower would be the answer. I'll have to review the video and see if I can pick up anything.

The middle two trades on GC were probably boredom trades, and the third trade may have been a revenge trade. I have to stop doing that. This is just a discipline problem. I should be a more mature trader than that by now. Dissappointed in myself for those two trades.

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 cts001 
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The 5 minute chart of GC shows a strong upward trend starting at about 0430 that may have topped out. The high is at $1261.1 and the pivot low is at $1228.7.

That bullish move pretty much invalidates analysis of the Globex session. Huge upward move with prices pulling back starting at around 0625 is about all I can say.

Looking for bullish trades in the pre-market.

Going to test a rule about only 1 non-news trade in the pre-market. Hopefully that will cause me to wait for good quality setups instead of jumping at every bounce in the market.

Plenty of news today: Unemployment Claims, Fed Manufacturing and natural gas storage are all on tap. I should be able to stick with trading the news today.

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 cts001 
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Took 4 trades today and was done (due to 3 loss limit) before I could trade all the news events.

Unemployment claims trade with GC but nothing happened so no trade. The equity indexes moved stongly on the news, but GC stayed in it's range and barely took notice.

Took a short on GC: GC broke below a consolidation area and pulled back a bit. Entered short when price paused and was immediately stopped out. Price rose 4 or so ticks above my stop and reversed to my profit target. That is too far away for me to call this the right trade: wrong trade. lost 4 ticks.

Had 3 trades on the market open, trading NQ:

First was long NQ: Market opened and price was moving slowly, down at first and then it reversed. Entered long as price broke above the open price expecting price to rise about an equal distance to the up side as it did on the down side. First target was almost immediately touched and after a few 1 tick bounces I was filled for my first target. Moved stop to break even on remaining contract and was immediately hit. Right trade, right entry. Wrong trade management? +7 ticks.

Next was short NQ: NQ pulled back to the open and dropped below the open price. Entered short expecting price to continue downward but was stopped out with out the trade becoming pofitable. Price went 1 tick beyond my stop and then fell past my first target. Right trade, wrong entry. -8 ticks

Last was also short NQ: NQ continued downward after the open, so entered short as price made a new post-opening low. Stopped out immediately by 1 or 2 ticks before price dropped beyond my first target again. Right trade, wrong entry. lost 10 ticks.

Overall down for the day, 4 trades 1 winner, 3 losers for -15 ticks.

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 cts001 
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Calling this pre market prep instead of analysis because I'm not really doing any analysis any more, I've evolved my morning routine to focus more on the plan of the day and less on what the market did over the last couple of days/hours. There is still a bit of reading the chart.



5 minute chart of GC shows a strong upward trend in the Globex session that may have topped out as of 0730 or so. Start of the move was around 0645 at $1257.2 and the high of the move is at $1262.9. No demand formed during the move as it was very choppy (lots of top shadows).

Trying something a bit different today. In addition to the news I'm going to be looking specifically for markets that have picked a direction and attempt to join the trend. Maybe focusing on a specific entry will curtail my recent tendency to jump at shadows.

News of note for today: CPI and Consumer Sentiment.

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 cts001 
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this is a late entry as I took the weekend to decompress and re-evaluate. Traded like a complete idiot on Friday.

Won't go into the details of each trade, but took 5 trades with 1 winner and 4 losers. One of the losers had 5 ticks of slippage on a 4 tick stop. Just a bad day?

Over the weekend I reviewed the video of the trades and found that it was not just a bad day. I was not following most of my rules. I thought I had gained some understanding of how to use the depth and sales and I let that overconfidence affect my trading decisions. I got what I deserved.

I'm going back to what has worked for me before, trading the market reaction to news off the charts. I can then review the trade videos later and see if I can see anything helpful in the depth and sales. When not trading the news, I'll just watch the depth and sales and follow the rest of advice I've recieved on learning to the use that toolset. The current plan is to revisit using the depth and sales for trade decision making in a couple of months.

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 cts001 
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Since I'm only trading the news today, no other market analysis needs to be done.

Expecting two trading opportunities today, Canadian dollar on the manufacturing news at 0830 and the e-mini Nasdaq 100 at the market open at 0930.

Slept in a bit this morning as I don't have as much pre-market work to do and I won't be trading until 0830 anyway. I dusted off, reviewed and updated my old trading plan for chart based trading of scheduled news and events so my rules are fresh in my head and understood.

I plan to leave the office between news events to prevent over-trading. Should be a good trading day today, if a bit boring.

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 cts001 
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short day today since I'm only trading news and events.

Two events today: Canadian manufacturing sales and the U.S. market open.

CAD manufacturing sales traded with 6C. No setups so no trades.

U.S. market open traded with NQ. Two trades that basically cancelled each other out.

First trade: Price opened and moved up initially and then bounced around for a bit and dropped back to the open price. Entered short as price moved below the open and was stopped out as price bounced around that area. Good trade, wrong entry. lost 8 ticks.

Second trade: Price was still fitting the pattern, so took another short after price had stopped bouncing and moved down about 4 ticks and stalled. Price hit the first target so I moved my stop to break even. Stop was hit when price reversed. Good trade. Price continued well past my initial stop, so moving the stop to break even was the right trade management rule. made 11 ticks.

At least it's not a losing day. 4 events to trade tomorrow, we'll see if it's a better day than today.

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 cts001 
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News all day starting with Canadian wholesale sales and U.S. building permits at 0830, then BOC news releases at 1000 adn BOC press conference at 1115.

Didn't sleep well last night so I decided to sleep late. Missed the 0830 news releases although not much reaction happened in either market. Still sleepy but I have another 40 minutes to cat nap before the market open.

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 cts001 
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Had 4 events today and got 3 trades off.

Canadian wholesale sales and U.S. building permits - no setups so no trades. In truth, I was also a bit late setting up to get into these trades anyway, if there were any. In hindsight, I'm glad there were no setups.

Market open, traded with NQ. got two trades off, both losers.

first trade was a 'bipolar' setup and I entered long as price moved higher than the open after the initial downward move. Price fell decisively and stopped me out. 8 tick loss, wrong trade.

second trade was a 'stampede' setup as price continued to move down and had a small pull back. Price continued down to within 2 ticks of my firt target before retracing to stop me out. This one was just poor trade management on my part. I should have moved th e stop to at least break even + 2 ticks when price got that close to the target. Correct trade, correct entry, poor trade management. lost 8 ticks.

Bank of Canada rate statement was traded using 6C. This was a textbook 'gunshot' setup and I entered long as price started bouncing around a bit at the bottom of the initial move. My first target was hit almost immediately after I entered the position and the stop was moved to break even + 2 ticks. Price bounced around the 1st profit target price for a few seconds before dropping back to hit my stop. profit was 15 ticks.

Overall a small winning day, like yesterday. This is how this trading plan usually works, with very few large losses, small wins and small losses cancelling each other out and the occasional large win that really grows the account.

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 cts001 
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Got to bed late after a long training session. Slept well and late so I got 7 or 8 hours.

Lots of news today: unemployment rate, natural gas storage, crude oil inventory. Should be a good day.

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 cts001 
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Since there isn't much pre-market stuff I do anymore (other than check to see what news is due out) I think I'll just do the recap and skip the pre-market entry. Just save some reading for those that made it this far.

Unemployment Claims, traded with GC: Price moved up a bit after the news was announced but bounced around a lot. Waited to enter until after price fell below the open but got stopped out. Turns out there was no reaction to the news, it was just normal market movement. Wrong trade.

I chose to trade the unemployment claims news instead of the ECN press conference becuase press conferences can cause the market to move at any time during the conference, depending on what is said. I figured the unemployment claims news would cause a more immediate move in the market. Turns out it did not, probably was overshadowed by the ECB news conference, which produced large moves down and up. Just a note for the future. may still decide not to trade a press conference, but may decide not to trade other news being released at the same time.

Market open, traded with NQ. Three trades:

Price opened very choppy but moved upward and stalled for a second. Entered short expecting a bipolar setup and was immediately stopped out as price continued to rise. Wrong trade.

Attempt to join the upward move was stopped out immediately. Price dropped from 2 ticks above my entry. Wrong trade.

Attempted to get long to join the upward move again and the price moved against the position so fast that the stop order was rejected. Manually closed the trade for massive slippage. Wrong trade. Should have known the momentum was downward by this point and that there was no trade.

Natural Gas Storage traded with NG. Three trades:

Price slowly dropped from an initial gap downward on the news and paused. Entered long on a reversal strategy and was immediately stopped out. Price bounced around above my entry price after hitting my stop but did not get far enough into profit for me to have moved my stop to break even. Wrong trade.

Price continued to bounce around the same lows, making 1 or 2 tick lower lows and bouncing 3 to 4 ticks up. Entered long on one of the bounces and price continued to rise. Moved stop to break even, price rose to within 1or 2 ticks of the profit target and the stop was auto adjusted to entry + 4 ticks. Price reversed and hit the stop. Right trade, good trade management.

Another long entry off a bounce of the low that was immediately stopped out. Looking back at it, three trades, each long but entered at lower and lower prices. Should not have taken this trade as it was the third trade off the same news reaction, but also should have been looking for a short by this point. As it happened, price wiggled around the stop a little and then did rise up to beyond my target. Right trade, wrong entry.

Crude Oil Inventory traded with CL. Two trades:

This was a cross between a bipolar entry and a stampede. Entered as price dropped below the open of the candle on a steady move with small pullbacks. Stopped out by a few ticks and price resumed the downward move. Right trade, wrong entry.

Entered short as price was continuing to fall with very small pullbacks, very nice stampede entry. Moved stop to break even + 3 ticks when price went 10 ticks into profit. Price pulled back and hit the stop. Right trade.

Ended today down about 25 ticks. ouch. 9 trades and only 2 small winners. Had one stop order rejected due to the pace of price movement which caused most of the damage, but also had at least 2 trades I should never have taken (due to my two trades per event rule). Probably should not have taken the unemployment claims trade either. Many lessons purchased for those 25 ticks.

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sledmt
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cts001 View Post
Over the weekend I reviewed the video of the trades and found that it was not just a bad day. I was not following most of my rules. I thought I had gained some understanding of how to use the depth and sales and I let that overconfidence affect my trading decisions. I got what I deserved.

You mentioned a video of your trades. Curious, what software are you using for that?

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 cts001 
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You mentioned a video of your trades. Curious, what software are you using for that?

I'm currently using CamStudio ( CamStudio - Screen Recorder | SourceForge.net) which is free and serves my purposes nicely. I've been considering purchasing SnagIt ( Screen Capture Software for Windows, Mac, and Chrome | Snagit) as it allows for video editing as well as capture.

All I do is capture the video right now, no voice overs, no text on screen or anything so CamStudio is fine for now.

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 cts001 
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three trades taken on two events.

Canadian core CPI and retail sales, traded with 6C. Two trades:

CAD reacted with a bipolar move too quick and small to trade and then decided to bounce to the upside. Entered long when the bouncing stopped and price stampeded to the upside. Entry was a bit late and price continued about 4 ticks past my entry then reversed and hit my stop. Right trade, late entry. lost 8 ticks.

CAD started bouncing around and then moved decisively to the downside. Entered short on a downward stampede but was late and caught the very end of the move, price reversed and stopped me out. Late on the entry again. Right trade, late entry. lost 7 ticks.

Market open trade with NQ.

Market opened sluggish but to the upside then reversed and bounced down to the open price. Took the short when price broke below the open on a late bipolar entry and the market decided to run to the downside. Both targets hit. Great trade. made 40 ticks.

Overall dissappointed in my lack of ability to capitalize on setups I've used for a long time. I guess even a couple of months 'off' will allow the rust to settle in. Both of my losers today could have been at least first target winners if I had not hesitated on the entry and got in late.

Up a little on the day but down overall on the week.

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 cts001 
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Done a bit early today, but on a positive note.

No news to trade today, so it was mostly scalping.

Pre-market GC trade: GC in an uptrend and then pulled back. Price continued to fall but retraced a bit and I took the short expecting the downward move to continue. It did not and I was stopped out. Should not have entered short in an upward trend, especially when the current candle could not make a lower low before retracing back above the open price. Wrong trade.

Market open, NQ: Market opened with a quick bipolar action too quick for me to enter and then drifted downward in a bouncy fashion. It then picked up some downside momentum and had a quick pullback, where I entered short. Price continued to fall and hit both profit targets. Good trade.

The rest of the trades were regular session trades on GC.

Price was in a downtrend and had just dropped below the prior swing low. Entered short on a small retracement and price dropped to within 1 tick of profit target and paused. Stop was moved to break even + 2 ticks and price retraced again and hit the stop. Price would not have hit my original stop before dropping to my target, but I feel the trade management on this trade was correct. Better to take a small profit than a small loss. Good trade.

Price continued the downward move, so I entered short again on a slightly larger pullback. Price did go 1 tick against me and bounce before dropping to 1 tick of my profit target. Stop moved to break even + 2 ticks and price retraced and hit the stop again. Price bounced around and would have hit my original stop on this one, which validates my trade management on these scalps. Good trade.

Price bounced around for a while and then dropped to break the low of the prior candle. Entered short on a small retrace and price dropped to within 2 ticks of my profit target before retracing back to the entry price. Held onto the trade and price dropped to within a tick of my target again and paused. Moved stop to break even +2. This time price hit the profit target. Good trade.

Price continued to drop and entered short again on a little larger pullback. Price bounced around in the profit zone a couple of times before hitting the profit target fast enough that the system did not have a chance to move the stop. Good trade.

Overall a good day, 6 trades and 1 loser. Up about 13 ticks.

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 cts001 
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Early end to today as I hit my limit on losing trades per day. I'm in the process of revisiting that rule as it is based on my 'old' chart based, set and forget trading style that had very wide stops. My stops are narrower now, typically 4 or 5 ticks, so I'm actually risking a fraction of what I was when the rule was first implemented. Anyway, on to today's results.

Traded two events: U.S. core durable goods and the market open.

Core durable goods, traded using GC. Three trades:

Price was slow to react to the news but finally dropped a bit then started rallying. Got in a late long entry on a stampede and was stopped out almost immediately on a pullback. Good trade, wrong (late) entry.

Price made a new high and then pulled back significantly. As price was moving quickly back up I entered long. Price spiked quickly to within 1 tick of my target and then back below the price of my auto stop adjustment so the stop order was rejected. Manually exited the trade at +2 ticks. It was a good call as the original stop would have been hit if I had stayed in. Good trade, late entry, good trade management.

Price continued to make highs and pull back (bouncing). Entered long on one of the rallies after a pullback and was stopped out. Entry was too early this time. Right trade, wrong entry.

Market open traded with NQ. Two trades:

Market opened and headed down, and I had stampede on my mind from earlier trades, did not even look for a bipolar reaction, so I took a short trade as price moved down into the bipolar setup area. Not surprisingly, I was stopped out immediately as price reversed. Wrong trade.

Bipolar reaction never confirmed as price retraced to the open price but did not break over it. Price started to fall again so entered short on a stampede entry. Both targets hit and price was moving at a rate that made me consider moving my second target further down but it was hit before I could move it. Good trade.

Overall a good day, 5 trades, 3 losers but still profitable for the day.

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 cts001 
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Not a good day. Three events: market open, crude oil inventory, and FOMC rate decision. That in combination with contract rollover for GC and all the ingredients for a choppy day were in place.

Had one trade in GC in the pre-market: Price rallied and broke above prior swing highs with no significant pullbacks. Entered long right at the top of the move and was stopped out without the trade having become profitable at all. Wrong trade. The setup was correct, but it didn't work out this time. Price bounced around the stop price a bit and did make a new high by 2 or 3 ticks but would not have reached the profit target.

Traded the market open with NQ, as usual. Two trades:

Market opened lethargically starting downward and moving above the open price. Entered long just outside of the bipolar range and price continued to rally to within 1 tick of my first profit target. Stop was moved to break even + 2 for that lot and the stop was hit. Manually moved the stop for the remaining lot up 1 tick but left it on. Price retraced and hit the stop. Price bounced around the open a bit and moved lower. Wrong trade.

Price reversed and started moving solidly downward. Entered short on stampede entry. Price dropped to within 2 ticks of the first target and stalled. Started bouncing around and then retraced to the stop. Poor trade management on this one. Should have at least taken one lot off the table when price stalled, and closed the trade when price failed to reach the first profit target in two attempts. Wrong trade which could have been salvaged with better trade management.

Traded crude oil inventory with CL: Price dropped on the news but in a very bouncy fashion. Entered short on a stampede entry but was stopped out so fast the target limit order was rejected. Price rose, again in a very bouncy fashion but I decided the market was too bouncy for my entries and stopped. Wrong trade.

FOMC rate decision news caused the weirdest movement in GC I had ever seen, so no trade.

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 cts001 
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Had a good day, even though I had a lot of losing trades.

Traded 3 events: unemployment claims, market open and natural gas storage.

The first trade was an opportunistic scalp trade on GC: Price started to rally into a textbook stampede. Entered long (a little late) when price broke above some 5 min supply and price went immediately to the price target. Interesting to note that the target was the highest price of that move before a retrace and further move up. Right trade, entry a little late.

Unemployment claims, traded with GC: price hardly moved and was bouncing around a lot. Saw no setups so I took no trades.

Opportunistic scalp on GC: Price retraced downward and resumed the upward trend. Not the best setup as price had traveled through this area within the last 15 mins or so. Entered long on a move up and was stopped out after a small pause. Price did continue to rally upward after the stop was hit. Right trade, wrong entry.

Market open traded with NQ. Two trades:

Market opened and started bouncing downward. Entered short on a sizable pullback and was immediately stopped out. Price then continued to drop. Right trade, wrong entry.

Second attempt to join the downward move after the open. Price moved sharply downward and then paused. Entered short and price continued to drop for 3 or 4 ticks and then retraced to the stop. Price retraced all the way to near the open. Wrong trade.

Natural Gas Storage, traded with NG: Price gaped down on the news setting up for a nice gunshot entry, but price then continued to fall. Price drop developed into a stampede entry and enter short. Price continued to stampede downward without much pause or any significant pullbacks. Trade went onto auto trailing stop at 12 ticks profit but it kept falling fast and hit the target. Good trade.

Overall positive for the day, hitting the 30 tick target on the NG trade saved the day.

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futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal


Last Updated on January 29, 2015


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