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cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal
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cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
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Jan 9 Pre Market Analysis

Daily chart of GC shows sideways movement with a pivot high at $1223.3 and a pivot low at $1167.3. These are unchanged from yesterday.

Hourly chart shows sideways movement with bearish pressure with a pivot high of $1216.80 and pivot low of $1206.30. There is supply near the top of that range but it's not strong enough to mention.

15 minute chart shows a sideways range for the Globex session with the top being the pivot high of $1214.30 and the bottom being demand at $1209.8 to 1209.3.

New of note: 0830 unemployment rate.

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End of Session Recap

overtraded this morning already, so calling it a day. Only two events today: unemployment and market open.

Unemployment Rate, traded with GC. Great move in the market in response to the news, down at first and missed the long at the bottom. Price rallied way up and I got short near the top. Price moved in my favor so I moved the stop to break even and price moved back up to stop me out. Another instance of early exit due to stop movement. picked up 2 ticks on the trade

Scalp trade on GC shorting near the top of the Globex range after it seemed to re-establish itself after the volatility of the unemployment news died out. Entered near the top of the range as planned but priced stalled in a 2 tick range. Killed the trade for a 1 tick loss.

Market open, traded with NQ. Here is where the overtrading took place. 4 trades, 2 losers and 2 winners that largly cancelled each other out.

1st trade, attempt to join the downward opening trend. Shorted as price moved back to the low from a small bounce upward at $4238.75. Price stalled at the entry price for a while and then whipsawed up to stop me out before continuing the move down. lost 8 ticks.

2nd trade, attempt to catch a small win on a bounce off a low. noticed price hit a low and failed to make a new low. Entered long at $4238.50 and hit profit target. gained 4 ticks.

3rd trade, atttempt to catch another small win on a bounce off the low. noticed the same setup, price made a new low and failed to make another new low after a short bounce. Entered long at $4236.25 and was stopped out, price never made above the entry price. lost 4 ticks.

4th trade, attempt join the downward move. Entered short at $4230 as price returned to the low from a small bounce. Filled and trade went immediately into profit and hit the first target at $4227.50. Moved stop to break even, and price rallied back up and hit the stop. gained about 15 ticks.

Overall 6 trades with 2 losers and overall positive for the day doesn't seem too bad. Some of those trades I had no business making as the setups were not in accordance with my trading strategies. I ended the day before my limit of 3 losing trades to prevent further overtrading (and more losses).

Attached Thumbnails
cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.09.gc.eos.jpg   cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.09.nq.eos.jpg  
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  #13 (permalink)
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Jan 12 Pre Market Analysis


Daily chart of GC shows sideways movement with slight bullish tendency, new pivot high of $1231.3 and pivot low of $1204.2. The pivot range is getting smaller.

Hourly chart shows bullish trend with pivot high at $1231.3 and pivot low at $1217.5.

15 minute chart shows an active Globex session, overall sideways movement but a clear upward trend in the early session and now a clear downward trend since 0100. Going to treat this as a downward trend in the Globex session.

This is a very light news week, no news today or tomorrow.

Feeling pretty good coming off a decent week last week. Want to keep up the trend of not overtrading (which I broke on Friday, but one day out of 5 isn't bad). With no news to push the market around today I'' have to try to use my developing tape reading/order flow skills to find some good trades. That makes me a bit nervous.

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End of Session Recap

Done early, hit my 3 losing trade limit already.

No news, so the only event I could trade was the market open. The rest of the trades were based on my ability to read the order flow and/or charts.

First trade was based on a weak 5 min supply zone on GC. Entered short and was stopped out for a 4 tick loss.

Second trade was based on absorption over 3 price levels on the depth and sales, again on GC. Entered long just above the absorption prices and was filled as price started to rise. Price made it to my 5 tick target but I was too far back in line to get filled. I did not manage the trade properly and let price slip all the way back against me before killing the trade for a 2 tick loss.

Third trade was market open on NQ. Price rose and paused, so I entered short as it started to pull back but price had one more bounce left in it which hit my stop before it fell way beyond my profit targets. The high of the move was 2 ticks above my stop. 10 tick loss.

In thinking about the second trade, I noticed that I was so taken up in the fact that the setup worked (new to order flow analysis and trading) that I went into spectator mode instead of staying in trader mode. I watched price stall and hover at my price target without moving the stop up or just exiting the trade for profit target -1 tick. I'll have to be watchful for this mode switch next time, and expect it whenever I'm using new tools or setups to enter trades.

I think that was a valuable lesson, well worth the 16 tick loss it took to sink in.

Attached Thumbnails
cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.12.gc.eos.jpg   cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.12.nq.eos.jpg  
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Jan 13 Pre Market and Recap

Daily chart of GC shows a bullish trend with pivot hight at $1244.5 and low of $1204.2.

Hourly chart shows a stronger bullish trend with pivot high at 1244.5 and low at $1233.6.

15 minute chart shows a bullish trend for the Globex session with some sideways chop for the past few hours.

No news today, so I have to be careful with my setups, and I'm kind of tired still. Not sure why, I got a good nights rest, hour wise anyway.

Took 4 trades today, 3 losers and 1 winner, all in the pre-market. I have to be more patient on non-news days...

All trades were in GC.

First trade was long after a big rally looking to try to join the move. Saw a pullback from the high and then some absorption and entered long just above the absorption area. Trade never went in my favor and I lost 4 ticks. Price fell another 2 ticks past my stop before rallying beyond my profit target. Right trade, wrong entry.

Second trade was short after a good price drop. Price rebounded from the low and I saw some absorption again and entered short just below the absorption zone. Got filled as the downward move continued but price started bouncing around +-2 ticks around my entry price. Manually killed the trade when price dropped below my entry again for a 2 tick gain. Price never reached my target on this one but would have hit my stop if I hadn't killed the trade. Wrong trade.

Third trade was long in an area of consolidation on the 5 min chart. Price bounced off the low of the consolidation zone, filled my order and went to within 1 tick of my 5 tick target and paused. Moved stop up a bit, but not to break even as price retraced back to the entry price. Manually exited the trade at the entry price for a commission loss. I'll count this as a 1/2 tick loss. Price again would have hit my original stop, but only went 2 below the stop before rallying up to and beyond my target. Right trade, wrong entry again.

Last trade was short with the entry just below a price that the market did not want to sell into. The price would go bid but nothing would trade there and price would bounce up a couple ticks. This happened several times so I decided that if price did trade there and keep falling, it would be good for 5 or so ticks of profit. Entered when price dropped below the 'untouched' price and the trade never went in my favor for a 4 tick loss. Price continued to rally past my stop, so this was the wrong trade.

I have to work on my patience and discipline on no news days. I'll try this: only 1 trade pre-market on no news days, then I can at least trade the market open and possibly one more trade during the regular session.

Overall down 6.5 ticks.

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Jan 14 Pre Market Analysis

Changing my analysis method today. The way I have been doing it was based on my old chart trading, position day trading/swing trading style which I am moving away from in favor of a shorter term trading style. This may evolve over the next couple of days or weeks.

The 5 minute chart of GC is showing sideways movement with a possible channel between $1230.6 and $1227.1.

The 15 minute chart also shows sideways movement in the pre-market with a larger channel from $1233.4 to $1225.6.

During the pre-market I'll be trying to trade one of these channels.


Looking forward to having some news today to give my trading some structure and push the markets. My news trading strategies are chart based but they work, so I will continue trading them. As I review the video of those trades I may be able to transition those trades to depth and sales based entries, or at least depth and sales supported entries.

News today is: 0830 U.S. retail sales, 1030 crude oil inventory

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End of Session Recap

Bad day today, performance wise. Also took two trades I had no business taking (both losers).

Three events to trade today: retail sales, market open and crude oil inventory.

retail sales, traded with GC. GC spiked upward on the news and immediately started to fall. Entered short on a brief pullback and price continued to fall making the trade immediately profitable. Price paused and began to bounce about 5 ticks into profit so I manually exited the trade before it could go against me. Price did rally from about 4 ticks below where I exited and made new highs. Wrong trade, but I got lucky and exited for a small profit. +6 ticks.

Market open, traded with NQ. Looks like the retail sales report took the steam off the open or something, no entries so I took no trades.

Next trade was on GC. Price was in a downward move and pulled back a bit, entered short to join the move for a quick 5 tick profit. Got filled and the trade never went in my favor to get stopped out. Wrong trade. Probably should not have taken this trade as I don't have any specific entry criteria defined for it. - 4 ticks.

Third trade was also GC. Still bearish on GC at this point so I attempted another short to join the move. Was filled and stopped out so fast my OCO target order was rejected because the position was already closed. Wrong trade, again. This one should never have been taken in the first place. - 4 ticks

Crude Oil Inventory report was traded with CL. This was not the ideal setup as price was moving down after the news but did not gap. Price was bouncing downward and I saw price fail to make a new low and entered the trade, long. Got filled and the trade never went in my favor as crude made a new low and stopped me out. The next low that price bounced off of was the trade. Right trade, wrong entry. -11 ticks.

Overall on the day, 4 trades, 1 winner, 3 losers for -13 ticks.

I need to refine my report trading strategy to better enter when the price does not fly in one direction or the other. Maybe looking at depth and sales when the price is moving slower would be the answer. I'll have to review the video and see if I can pick up anything.

The middle two trades on GC were probably boredom trades, and the third trade may have been a revenge trade. I have to stop doing that. This is just a discipline problem. I should be a more mature trader than that by now. Dissappointed in myself for those two trades.

Attached Thumbnails
cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.14.1040.gc.eos.jpg   cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.14.1040.cl.eos.jpg  
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Jan 15 Pre-Market Analysis

The 5 minute chart of GC shows a strong upward trend starting at about 0430 that may have topped out. The high is at $1261.1 and the pivot low is at $1228.7.

That bullish move pretty much invalidates analysis of the Globex session. Huge upward move with prices pulling back starting at around 0625 is about all I can say.

Looking for bullish trades in the pre-market.

Going to test a rule about only 1 non-news trade in the pre-market. Hopefully that will cause me to wait for good quality setups instead of jumping at every bounce in the market.

Plenty of news today: Unemployment Claims, Fed Manufacturing and natural gas storage are all on tap. I should be able to stick with trading the news today.

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End of Session Recap

Took 4 trades today and was done (due to 3 loss limit) before I could trade all the news events.

Unemployment claims trade with GC but nothing happened so no trade. The equity indexes moved stongly on the news, but GC stayed in it's range and barely took notice.

Took a short on GC: GC broke below a consolidation area and pulled back a bit. Entered short when price paused and was immediately stopped out. Price rose 4 or so ticks above my stop and reversed to my profit target. That is too far away for me to call this the right trade: wrong trade. lost 4 ticks.

Had 3 trades on the market open, trading NQ:

First was long NQ: Market opened and price was moving slowly, down at first and then it reversed. Entered long as price broke above the open price expecting price to rise about an equal distance to the up side as it did on the down side. First target was almost immediately touched and after a few 1 tick bounces I was filled for my first target. Moved stop to break even on remaining contract and was immediately hit. Right trade, right entry. Wrong trade management? +7 ticks.

Next was short NQ: NQ pulled back to the open and dropped below the open price. Entered short expecting price to continue downward but was stopped out with out the trade becoming pofitable. Price went 1 tick beyond my stop and then fell past my first target. Right trade, wrong entry. -8 ticks

Last was also short NQ: NQ continued downward after the open, so entered short as price made a new post-opening low. Stopped out immediately by 1 or 2 ticks before price dropped beyond my first target again. Right trade, wrong entry. lost 10 ticks.

Overall down for the day, 4 trades 1 winner, 3 losers for -15 ticks.

Attached Thumbnails
cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.15.0945.gc.eos.jpg   cts001 Jan 2015 Trading Journal-2015.01.15.0945.nq.eos.jpg  
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Jan 16 Pre-Market Prep


Calling this pre market prep instead of analysis because I'm not really doing any analysis any more, I've evolved my morning routine to focus more on the plan of the day and less on what the market did over the last couple of days/hours. There is still a bit of reading the chart.



5 minute chart of GC shows a strong upward trend in the Globex session that may have topped out as of 0730 or so. Start of the move was around 0645 at $1257.2 and the high of the move is at $1262.9. No demand formed during the move as it was very choppy (lots of top shadows).

Trying something a bit different today. In addition to the news I'm going to be looking specifically for markets that have picked a direction and attempt to join the trend. Maybe focusing on a specific entry will curtail my recent tendency to jump at shadows.

News of note for today: CPI and Consumer Sentiment.

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