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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)


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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)

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  #1 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I thought a lot over the last few days about how I should proceed on this website and I came to the conclusion that opening another Canadian portfolio in my "Underexposed - Canadian Stock Journal" was not really a good plan. I am very comfortable with Canadian stocks and have been quite successful in managing a Canadian Stock portfolio (in actuality I have 3 Canadian portfolios (standard, TFSA, RRSP) ... the latter two being tax sheltered.

I have had an American portfolio for about 10 years now but under-capitalized it from the get-go. I started with $10,000 and successfully whittled it down to $2,000 over 10 years long term trading.

I never blew the account during that time but most of the damage to the account was done in the first 5 years... the crisis of 2008-2009 did not help the cause any either.

$10,000 is not a great starting point for a long term portfolio. You cannot really build such a portfolio rapidly if you think about it. a nice 20% gain nets you a whopping $2000... at that rate it would take forever to reach $100,000 so I just dabbled in US stocks.

We are lucky in Canada....we have no restrictions about trading in American stock. Our brokers here accept orders and execute them almost as fast on American exchanges as they do on Canadian exchanges. We even have access to OTCB and PINKS if we want to waste our money down there...Actually it is not so much a waste if there are Canadian stocks in those exchanges.... A lot of Canadian companies list in the OTCB/Pink to increase their investor exposure and are reasonable buys though with a lot less volume. But if a stock is listed in Canada it is folly to buy an American version since you suffer from the variance of exchange rates by doing so... that and usually less trading volume.

When I started out, I liked stocks in the $1 - $5 range.... I still do in Canadian stocks.... but I could never make it work in American stocks. The reason why it is better in Canada is that the Canadian exchanges have the highest listings for O&G and Mining stocks in the world. We have far more choice that American investors who cannot get easy access to Canadian stocks ( that is why Canadian companies often list in the USA as well as Canada.... but American companies don't list on Canadian exchanges...no reason to incur that expense as Canadians have no problem investing on American exchanges.

Many start up companies for O&G and mining start in the $0.50 to $3.00 and if you are skilled in finding the good ones it can be quite profitable to invest in these companies. The good ones can develop into stocks worth many times their value in a few years...and/or be subjects for takeovers by larger companies as they demonstrate their worth.

I did not find this so in American stocks.... the old $5 penny status was certainly true and before I was skilled in my limited FA analysis I I picked a lot of bad USA stock in the $1 - $5 range

So, in fantasy mode, I will capitalize my portfolio better

I will give myself $100,000 USD and see what I can do with a portfolio of US stocks. I will run it much the same as I do in my other journal... the same charts apply as well as interpretation of financial data. I will focus on stocks over $10/share with perhaps a dabble or two in the $5-$10 range.

So.... I shall start this journey in the $US portfolio soon I will be looking for about 4-5 stocks ... I am not sure what sectors I will look in ... that is for future discussions.

I hope you find this interesting, constructive comments are welcome, as always

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  #3 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


First of all, I won't be putting commodity type stocks into this $US portfolio. For me, as a Canadian I have as much or more choice in the Canadian market for such stocks as Oil & Gas and Mining.

The USA exchanges have commodities sectors of course in their "Basic Materials" sector but this does not attract me. However you cannot discount commodity prices when you are considering other sectors.

Oil prices have tumbled for now. One wonders how long this will last and when the bottom is found (I figure somewhere around $45/barrel...just a guess) How long will it stay down there? and how long will it take for oil prices to rise again? Is this some kind of geopolitical punishment for Russia? Some speculate as much but the collateral damage to other countries is hard to ignore.

So when you think of oil prices falling....it follows that Transportation industries should be benefiting from this fall... but is it true in all sectors???

Certainly Gasoline prices have plummeted, In Calgary AB, we have usually the cheapest gasoline in the country. Just 4-6 months ago we were paying about $1.20/liter of gas.... now the price currently is $0.85/liter. About a 25% drop in the cost of fueling my car.

Here is a comparison of Diesel versus Gasoline prices

For the USA

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update - Energy Information Administration

For Canada (actually Ontario which is pretty expensive compared to Alberta but they trend similarly)

Ministry of Energy » Fuel Price Data

I have heard the cry of diesel vehicle owners that the price of diesel is not pacing the price of Gasoline but when you look at their profiles you see that the price of diesel has been falling steadily throughout the year .... whereas the price of gasoline rose til about mid year then fell at a higher rate than diesel fuel.

So both fuel users are benefiting from the drop in price.... and will continue for some time to come.

So the transportation industry is a place I want to look at first..... Specifically the trucking industry

The trucking stocks in Canada are very limited

Stock Screener | Search stocks by screener criteria

on the other hand the USA market place has a quantum leap more in opportunity....

Stock Screener - Overview usa trucking

So clearly I can invest here in opportunities that are unavailable to me in Canada

But are all these companies viable... are they worth investing in?

I like FinViz.com for this type of screening

Here is the companies that fall out when I apply simple criteria of a positive ROI, low debt/equity, low LT debt/equity

Stock Screener - Overview u0.5 u0.5 pos usa trucking

Much better....we have chopped out obvious bad boys, eliminating over 1/2 the field in that simple test.

here is the status of my Due Dilligence to date





this is the first step... but I like the choices so far.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...that was the first step in isolating potential long term investment... the first cull of trucking companies remove those that have higher debt and have a negative return on investment (ROI)

My next step is to look at how past returns vary since 5 years, 3 years and year to date.

To do this I use a tool that I was introduced to when looking for dividend stocks in my Canadian Journal



I personally did not like the way it evaluated DRIPS as it used partial shares in its calculation of returns... in my experience with Canadian DRIPS I never received partial shares from a dividend reinvestment. I received a whole number of shares and the partial share value was given to me in the form of a cash payment.

Then I wondered.... Could this tool be used to calculate the Annualized Total Return [ATR] for any stock...or was it for dividend stocks only?? The answer was it could be used to evaluate all stocks.

This is the link to this calculator

Dividend Reinvestment Calculator

I left the END DATE at Dec 26/2014 and I ran the tool three times for each stock the first at Jan 2, 2010 (5 years), then again at Jan 3, 2012 (3 years) and Jan 2, 2014 (YTD) .... Note: I had to jiggle the start date by a day on the 2012 start as it gave no data for Jan 2

Here is the results of this test



What I have done is ranked each time period by the highest to lowest value then summed them up for each company ticker.

It is clear who are the better companies as the top five stand out from the rest. The ArcBest Corporation [ARCB] almost made the cut but not only did it score lower than the top 5 but also look at the progression... the 3 year and 5 year evaluation progression was fine but it dropped back from the others in the year-to-date value. I don't really like that... I like to see a progressively increasing ATR.

I might be wrong here in some cases but, hey! you have to make a decision somewhere and this seems like a reasonable one to me.

The next post will look at their last 5 quarterly financial reports to see the progression of debts and revenues.
Hopefully we can reduce our choices from 5 to at most 3.... from that reduced number we will look at which one would be the best choice NOW

Hope you find this interesting.... good trading

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  #5 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok...I have 30 minutes to post this message before the Bell as it is currently 7:00AM MST but I will place my order after the opening for the day when I see the direction of the price trend.

Ok ... we narrowed down the stocks to five potentials and now are looking at the fundamentals to see if there is an obvious winner there.

To do this I use a Canadian site that gives financial info on both Canadian and American stocks. It is just a site that I commonly use for Canadian stocks and one that I am familiar with.

here is the main page of one of the stocks of interest

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

this is a nice summary page... you can see other companies by entering the ticker in the upper left box and selecting the appropriate symbol

This is the page for financials showing the income statement for the last 5 quarters... you can make adjustments to the numbers by clicking ",000" to show them in thousands, millions, billions

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

here is the end result for the 5 stocks that we previously chose



As you can see in this chart one stock came to the top Heartland Express Ltd [HTLD:Nasdaq Global Select] which is a short to medium haul general freight service. But close behind is Saia Ltd and Old Dominion Freight line Inc.

So using FA we have further narrowed our choice to 3 stocks now shown in dark green in this chart.

Now it is time to look at the TA of these stocks for the final pick.

I am not going to go into details as to how I developed these charts that I use... I have done that already in my Canadian stock journal already and you can read this discussion starting here if you want the gory detail of how I developed my "Trigger" chart... I really have not discussed the other charts in detail but these are less detailed.



To summarize my approach though, I believe in indicators.... not individually but as a consensus. All indicators give false information at any given time in addition to the good stuff... but they usually do not give false info at the same time!!!

So the object of the game is to select a suite of indicators that are not similar in their output... for example MACD and TRIX give the same look even though they are not calculated the same.... so you choose one indicator not both and I prefer MACD without the signal line. (the reasons why is in my other journal in detail)

So I use 4 charts for a complete Technical Analysis, (P&F, Trigger, sentiment and Ichimoku plus several indicators and overlays)... I evaluate the bullish/bearish components of the charts and cancel out the bullish/bear and what is left is a consensus... I find this is quite reliable.

I am showing all three company charts at once so comparison visually is easy to see.

1. P&F Charts




I use P&F charts for an overall view and resistance/support evidence

As you can see here Heartland [HTLD] is the best chart here... the other 2 are in a triangle formation which are slightly bearish though not very predictable as to their final direction... HTLD on the other hand looks to have broken through a diagonal resistance...much more bullish.

2. Trigger Charts





I use this chart a lot. It is a "trigger" as the BBwidth combined with the MACD and Slow Stochastics (note changes to parameters) indicate when breakouts will occur.

note the circle in the HTLD chart (middle one).... see the current breakout with the pricing nicely marching up the upper bollinger band (bollie)... now look at the Slow Sto/MACD /BBwidth... see how the Slow Sto and MACD lead the way with a positive slope then BBwidth breaks upward.... this is a bullish breakout sign

On the other two stocks you see that the BBwidth is pretty flat.... the Slow Sto and MACD are encouraging but not definitive yet... if they turn down and the BBwidth rises then it would be a bearish sign of a drop in price. But currently they are relatively neutral...with a slight hint of Bullishness but not enough to confidently buy long term yet.

3. Sentiment Charts





[HTLD] is clearly superior here.... all three indicators are bullish.... the CMF (in the chart is at a higher high with a bullet, the RSI has got a strong slope headed for 70 (I don't believe in "overbought/oversold"...if you want a discussion on this it is in my Canadian journal... ask and I will shorten your search if you are interested in looking at my rational) and the ADX DI+/- is bullishly diverging.

The other two charts have bearish CMF ([SAIA} more so than [ODFL]...both have bullish ADX DI+/- and their RSI trends are neutral.

Where [HTLD} is full on bullish... the other charts are neutral with bull canceling bear values.


4. Ichimoku Charts





Again HTLD stands out head and tails above the other two charts.

In the main Ichimoku chart see how high the price is above the green cloud also look in that circle see the thin blue line rising above the red line....that is bullish

In the other 2 charts the thin red lines are above the blue one (bearish and the proximity of the price to their green clouds is much closer...this is neutral at present but if the prices enter those clouds it would be bearish.

the two indicators for [HTLD] ie. the On bal Vol and CCI are full on Bullish wheras the indicators for the other 2 charts are mildly bearish


Conclusion

This is not even close.... Heartland Express Inc [HTLD:NASD]is the clear winner here.... there is not a bearish sign in any of the charts

This will be the stock I will purchase for my fantasy American portfolio.... at about $28/share I will purchase 1000 shares.... the next post will show my rationale for the price

Hope you found this interesting.... good trading

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  #6 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Ok... I have just checked out my free L2 chart for HTLD



and I will place an order right now a limit buy for 1000 shares HTLD @ $27.35

it will be the first purchase for this portfolio

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  #7 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well I guess I could have gotten this stock a dime cheaper but obviously from this chart my order would have been filled at $27.35



well this is the start of this new portfolio and for those that have not followed my Canadian journal you now see the selection process that I use... I need to think about where I will find the other 3-4 stocks to fill out this portfolio but I am happy so far

Good trading

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  #8 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well, I certainly am having a difficult time finding suitable long term stocks for my American portfolio.

The problem is that I don't really know this market place as well as the Canadian one, so I am following some leads that end in blind alleys.

the Financial sector is one area that I will plumb but that is daunting as within that complete sector the complete listing of products according to FinViz.com is 990 stocks (I don't like exchange traded funds... if I added those in there would be over 2000 choices) ranging in price from several hundreds of dollars to less than a dollar.

https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_stocksonly,sec_financial&o=-price

By comparison, a scan for Canadian financial institutions produces only 400 listings total and if you sort by company name you will find that many of those selected are preferred share offerings from the same bank...which I don't want but cannot seem to eliminate from the scan.... The TD Bank has 11 listings of which 10 are of preferred shares.... so I would say that I could safely eliminate 100 of these returns (there should be an option on this screener to select common stock only)

Stock Screener | Search stocks by screener criteria

If I were to look at simply Banks there is no problem in Canada

Regional Banks which are the smaller banks in Canada... a total of 4 (eliminating the preferred shares)
Global Banks which are the larger banks in Canada... a total of 6 (eliminating the preferred shares)

All of these are pretty solid banks

I will be looking at JUST Money Center banks in the USA... which is about the same as Canadian Global banks there are 41 of these and this just includes USA banks ... not including foreign banks listing on the USA markets

Stock Screener - Overview usa moneycenterbanks financial price

Easy to choose a good Canadian bank.... much tougher to find a Money Center bank.... it gets worse if I am looking for a regional USA bank.... I won't do that right now

**************************************************

ok... let us apply my first basic criteria.... positive ROI and low debt...

well I just used Long term debt to equity ratio (< 0.5) and a ROI > 10% to narrow down the choices

Stock Screener - Overview u0.5 o10 usa moneycenterbanks financial o300 company

One would hope that all banks had a positive ROI...and they did... but banks like Citigroup, Bank of America, JPM and surprisingly Wells Fargo dropped out at a ROI setting of > 10%... and the Long term debt/equity setting did not help them either.

So now I am down to a manageable number of 9 stocks to evaluate further.... here they are


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  #9 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Well i did the rest of the analysis that I did for trucking and this is the result



I am not too excited about this group ... especially when one has a negative YTD ATR

But the next post will be a TA comparison.... unless there is a standout I am not sure I will pick one of them.

I may continue the search looking at regional banks.... we shall see

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  #10 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


Well as promised here is the TA on the 3 banks I choose as finalists

1. P&F Charts

Again P&F charts for me are an overview of the stock, resistance/supports, and risk/reward





Comerica Inc [CMA] and Nara Bancorp [BBCN] show triangle formations. CMA is quite symmetrical and could go in any direction...right now it is looking to breach the upper resistance but it has a number of resistances if it does to limit its potential gain unless it can get above $52.00....BBCN is in a descending wedge or triangle or wedge...whatever.... this is traditionally a bearish formation but it could rise above and break through the resistance line...but there are several resistance lines above if it did... 15.20, 15.60, 16.40 and 18.00 any of which could stop any rise.

First Republic Bank San Francisco California [NYSE:FRC] has much better look to it. It is attempting to breach a resistance band from $52.50 - $53.00. It has only one resistance after that $55.00 - $55.50 to clear all problems... it could be a small swing if it passes $53.00 or a true long term hold...


2. Trigger Charts






All three charts show a potential movement to break their resistances. BBNC looks to me to be a head fake though.... in the small orange circle you see a small doji... indecision...the Slow Sto and MACD look fine but the BBWidth underwhelms me.

CMA is just not ready to pop yet... Slow Sto and MACD rise is encouraging but the BBwidth is flat

FRC looks better to me.... the Slow Sto is pegged over 80 but the MACD and BBwidth are relatively flat.... better but not definitive for a breakout.


3. Sentiment Charts





the thing that strikes you first in the first two charts is the amount of bearish mud in them.... BBCN is a little better as it is showing a bit of green now.... but not impressed yet that it has found good times. The RSI for CMA and BBCN are both neutral and not over 50....the ADX DI+/- looks like it might turn bullish in CMA...BBCN is slightly bullish in this indicator but looks to be recrossing if it has its way.

I like the green of FRC in the CMA... it has been in the mud but note how the instances are getting shorter and not as deep. The RSI is more bullish (slightly) with being above 50 with a positive slope... the ADX DI+/- is much more bullish though I would like to see more divergence of the green/red


4. Ichimoku Charts





the CMA chart is BEARISH. the price is below a red cloud with the thin red line far above the blue one... the OnBalVol and CCI look very weak to me.

The BBCn chart is better as the price is above a green cloud though reaching for it... the red/blue lines overlay eachother... the onBal Vol is quite bullish... the CCI is mildly bullish as it is falling out of the green

FRC is the best chart of the bunch. The price is far above the green cloud with red/blue lines overlayed and both CCI and OnBal Vol are both bullish


Conclusion

With a gun to my head I would choose First Republic Bank San Francisco California [NYSE:FRC]

of these choices it is the best... but it is not a no-brainer and I won't choose it right now. I am not impressed with these choices really. I think I will look at regional banks to see if there is something cheaper with more potential. FRC is pretty expensive at $53 to risk on a best-of-a-bad-lot analysis.

I will add FRC to the shakeout of the regional banks and see what I get.

A lot more work than dealing with Canadian banks for sure.

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  #11 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I am going to forget about First Republic Bank San Francisco California [NYSE:FRC] .

too expensive for the potential return for me.

MUCH more choice... and good choice in the regional banks. I used Return On Investments(ROI) of >25% and LTD/equity of <0.50 in several regional bank scans and came up with several (19) choices that look pretty good ....

the only sacrifice here is volumes... I specified an average volume of only 50,000 shares per day minimum. Now from a day trader this is probably not acceptable as there is not enough action to guarantee a sale when you want it , Day traders want their orders executed RFN for obvious reasons.... but for long term it is far less important.

Here are the choices that need paring down



these are not in any particular order other than by volume for each region

this will take a day or so to look at to get down to the best 6 choices by ATR and then 3 by FA for final TA analysis

I will have them ready by Monday.... no rush right now.

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  #12 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well the process went faster than I anticipated...or maybe I am just getting better at doing it.

If you compare my selection program in this journal compared to the one in my Canadian Journal, you will see that I have formalized it a lot more here....and I like this method a lot.

Using this method I am more objectively paring down my choices using a combination of FA and TA. I have always believed the marriage of the two types of analysis work well together saving TA for the final selection but instead of wasting my time looking at bad prospects, my final selection is based on best of breed...at least as I see it any way.

I probably could improve my FA... I am pretty simplistic looking at debt and ROI but as an initial screener it salts out the really iffy stocks pretty quick. I really like the ATR comparisons over 5 years down to YTD portion of the testing... fast to do and so revealing in result. Ideally I want to see the ATR increase from 5 year to YTD... the worst would be the reverse as that would mean to me the company USED TO BE a good company.

Here is the table with the regional banks that made the second cut....I could not with all conscience reduce the number to 6 choices... there were too many decent choices... I could only reduce it by roughly half.

I included the comparison to Money Center banks.... frankly these don't impress me at all compared to the regional banks





Look at the Annualized total return (ATR)... in the YTD column the Money Center Banks were single digits in the ones that made the first cut and some were negative returns ... by comparison the Regional bank second cut are mostly double digit returns...all of the negative returns were screened out in the second cut.

The 5 yr ATR for the Regional banks clearly out-strip the Money Center banks as does the Return on Investment (ROI)

This is a lot of work for me but it is instructive too in that in order to do it I had to develop a more formal procedure. Were I looking for Canadian banks I would have had a total of maybe 15 banks with global/regional banks combined... far fewer choices... as far as banking institutions goes we have a lot of local Credit unions/Caisse Populaire but these are not listed on Canadian exchanges.

Hope you find this selection procedure interesting.... I am open to suggestions for other selection criteria...especially on the FA side.

Happy New Year... may 2015 be a good one for all of us.

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  #13 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well this analysis method I worked out is getting easier and easier and I am very pleased with what has salted out before doing TA for the final decisions.

Here are the final choices in Dark green




Actually all of those in green may have merit for consideration but I have to draw the line somewhere

I sneaked a peak at the P&F charts for all 4 of those dark green choices....the final decision will be really tough... and that is a good thing.

I was daunted at first when I was faced with hundreds of banks to choose from but not so much now.

It does not surprise me though that in 2008-2009 that some of the banks in the USA failed... some don't look all that stable as I see them in my brief look now. We have a lot fewer choices in Canada (about 10 total - regional and global) and they are reasonable regulated... they are not allowed to get as "creative" in their products as seems to be allowed in the USA... I personally like it that way.

I will make my final choice here in a day or so....

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  #14 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well I don't like any of the US banks....Money center or Regional though Regional showed promise.

here is the TA


1. P&F Charts





All of these charts show prices are falling away from resistances.... no breakthrough in sight.

Western Alliance Bank [NYSE:WAL] shows some promise in the future in that it is traveling up a trough. Normally a double top breakout is quite bullish...not so this time.

Independant Bank Corp [NASD:IBCP] is just the opposite...we are following down a declining trough...tried to break through the resistance and is falling back.

Enterprise Financial Services [NASD:EFSC] this is a little better...a long recovery since Oct but looks like it will peter out before it reaches the resistance at $28.50

Seacoast Banking Corp of Florida not bad but its recent run in Dec has ended and now has fallen to a test of its support... will the support be strong enough???


2. Trigger Charts





Well the new year is starting bearish for all. the charts for each is quite similar for all... cresting BBwidth, as well as for Slow Sto and MACD...just the beginning IMHO. All have reached for the 20daySMA so we are talking consolidation after a run.


3. Sentiment Charts





same here ... all charts showing bear...the worst one is [EFSC] then [IBCP], [SBCF] and [WAL]... in that order
The ADX DI+/- in all shows a bearish cross pending, the RSI in all but [WAL] is declining...WAL is flat hence neutral.


3. Ichimoku Charts





the CCI in all cases has turned mildly bearish, the only decent OnBal Vol is for [IBCP]. I did like the Ichimoku for [IBCP] until today but that huge drop changes that attitude... [SBCF] and [WAL] look decent from the Ichi POV

Conclusion

These stocks are only good for a watch....none look good for a long term play or swing at this time.

I spent a long time on this but came up dry.... I am starting to understand the difficulties of dealing with the American market. I don't understand it as I do the Canadian exchanges.

good trading

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  #15 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I have looked at the charts of the other potential banks in that regional bank list and all have similar P&F charts.

in addition to the ones I listed in the previous post I sort of like, the following:














See what I mean....they have all risen in tandem to their respective high levels and then oscillated up/down for about a year.

I have to wonder since these stocks have been a good long term hold since 2009...have they run their course and on the downturn...or are they staging themselves for another attempt at breaking through their resistance levels.

I would not touch these stocks at the moment since there is no indication of their direction and the clues for their current direction are bearish as I described in the previous post. I will keep this DD and refer to it periodically to see if they assaulted their resistance and broken above....but it is GoodBye for now.

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  #16 (permalink)
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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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well, I am rapidly discovering why I have not been successful in the American market place.... there is a huge difference between Canadian Stocks and American stocks.

In Canadian markets stocks with prices in the $10 - $50 /share prices are mature stocks. In fact if you want to find good stock opportunities, you can find them in the $1 - $5 level.

Not so for American stocks, I now understand why they see $5 as penny stocks.

I have definitely under capitalized my American portfolio and hunted in price ranges suitable for Canadian stocks but absolutely useless for American stocks.

I decided to see how many stocks were available for each price range for each exchange


Price .............. TSXV ......... TSX ..... Total ....... % .....|... AMEX ... NASDQ ... NYSE ..... Total ..... %

>$50 .............. 0 ............... 54 ......... 54 ...... 2.0 ....|..... 17 ......... 319 .... 1017 ..... 1353 ..... 21.5

$10 - 50 ......... 6 ............. 246 ....... 252 ...... 9.3 ....|... 115 ....... 1201 ..... 2155 ..... 3471 ..... 55.3

$5 - 10 ........... 5 ............. 106 ....... 111 ...... 4.1.....|..... 45 ......... 362 ....... 226 ...... 633 ..... 10.1

$1 - 5 ........... 81 ............. 196 ....... 277 .... 10.2 ....|... 215 ......... 381 ......... 99 ...... 695 ..... 11.1

$0.01 - 1... 1769 ............. 244 ..... 2013 .... 74.4.....|..... 49 ........... 68 ........... 7 ....... 124 ... ... 2.0
.................................................... _____ ................|................................................. ____
Total ............................................ 2707 .................|................................................ 6276

Doing this bit of analysis between the two countries is an eyeopener to me.

In Canada, I have found stocks over $5 to be reasonably stable... there is also opportunity in the $1 - $5 range as these are emerging from the approximately 75% of Canadian stocks that are $0.01 - $1.0 which we (or at least I) consider penny stocks. Even there if you are careful in your FA and TA you can find opportunity in this range as many O&G and Mining start-ups are in this range.

But it is obvious that stocks under $5 do not get a lot of attention from serious investors as they make up less than 15% of all decent stocks (of course if you want absolute crap in American stocks you look in the OTCB and Pink markets)

My normal hunting ground for 75% of my holdings is in the $0.50 - $10.... this the price range where the majority of the Canadian stocks lie.

So unknowingly I assumed the same hunting ground would be equally good for American stocks and have been shocked at the amount of crap that I found there when compared to Canadian stocks of the same value

This has been a revelation to this Canadian Investor

So from now on I will concentrate my search in the $10-$50 range and MAYBE up to $100.

In Canadian stocks I like to make purchases in lots of 500 - 1000's blocks. I won't be able to do that upper range... I will have to get used to that.

This is also why I see IPO's of dicey American stocks start in the $30-$40 range they would not be noticed much. I used to laugh at stocks like Facebook that IPO'd at $44 and fell to $18 in weeks.... what do you expect from stocks with no visible means of support??? A year later it showed some so it climbed up. I see it often with USA energy companies too.... IPO's sky high where in Canada they would rate an IPO of less than $1

Yep, at $10,000 I naively under capitalized that portfolio by a mile.... it was only a mad-money account and I stopped being serious about it early after many failures.... maybe someday I will recapitalize that account with a decent amount..... NOT now though as I take a 15% hit on the exchange... and obviously I am not ready for that market place.

So much to learn {sigh}

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I guess this will sound funny after my last post but I found a decent play less than $5.

Radiant Logistics [NYSE:RLGT] at a current closing price of $4.35/Share

I won't go through the details of how I found this one as you should have an idea of that by now

here are the quarterly financials

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

the company has no debt, decent revenues, makes money and their Annual total Return is excellent.

Here is the TA


1. P&F Chart





broke through a diagonal resistance and headed into the stratosphere ... upper target unknown except for the P&F target of $5.15 which I take with a grain of salt....could be more or less {shrug}


2. Trigger Chart





Very nice...caught it at the beginning of a bullish run... Note the rising Slow Sto headed for 80 ... the MACD headed for higher high and finally the BBwidth showing some movement... on the last day you see the price spiked to $4.45 and pulled back... this is normal as it was far above the upper BB... you can see this is normal for this stock on bullish runs in the green circles.


3. Sentiment Chart





this is a bullish chart.... the CMF is reaching for higher levels, the RSI has a pos slope over 50 and the ADX DI+/- is bullishly diverging again



4. Ichimoku Chart




After using the tops of that green cloud as a support for a couple of months the price has soared...Blue line pulling away from the red (green circle)

The On Bal Vol and CCI are definitely bullish.


Conclusion

Well the FA and TA indications are full on bullish no signs of a bear anywhere.

I will place a limit order to Buy 4000 shares of Radiant Logistics [NYSE:RLGT] at a price of $4.35 on Monday


I was wondering if I would ever find something decent....

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 bobwest 
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This was an interesting screening process.

It's been a very long time since I traded stocks, but I am very familiar with the difficulty of finding something, out of the enormous number of possible candidates. Frankly, this process seems as good as any, and its value is, in part, in being systematic... you know at the end why you picked what you did. Oddly, I'm not sure that's always true when people select a stock. (I'm not sure why people pick what they do, either....)

In the past, I would usually start out looking at stronger industry groups, then narrow it down within the groups to the better candidates and then look more closely at their technicals. This gives a quick initial top-down screening, and it quickly cuts down on what you have to look at. There are, of course, many things that will work, and what matters is that, at the end of the search, you have something that meets your criteria.

It will be interesting to see how your new portfolio is fleshed out, and how it does over time.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
This was an interesting screening process.

It's been a very long time since I traded stocks, but I am very familiar with the difficulty of finding something, out of the enormous number of possible candidates. Frankly, this process seems as good as any, and its value is, in part, in being systematic... you know at the end why you picked what you did. Oddly, I'm not sure that's always true when people select a stock. (I'm not sure why people pick what they do, either....)

This is true. I don't think much thought is put into what stocks are being selected for trading. Of course, the reasons vary with the objectives of the investor.

I would not use this approach if I were a day-trader. Actually, I don't know how I would go about doing so other than the fact I would look for something that was very volatile on a daily basis... I would care less about fundamentals since I would not have owned the stock long enough to care.

But here, I want to buy stocks that will be owned for months, if not years. You can see that in my fantasy Canadian portfolio where I have 4 stocks there now that are 6 - 10 month holds now. Enbridge Income Fund [TSX:ENF] has blossomed now to a 35% gain so far with an excellent monthly dividend which if I factored those gains in would make it a 40% or so gain. I have it in 2 of my real portfolios since July because of its performance in this fantasy portfolio.

If you are looking for such long term holds ... You cannot hold crap ... That may sound obvious but not many have the tools to sort out the good/bad/butt ugly. That is why I like to understand fundamentals better... to figure out that good stock.


bobwest View Post
In the past, I would usually start out looking at stronger industry groups, then narrow it down within the groups to the better candidates and then look more closely at their technicals. This gives a quick initial top-down screening, and it quickly cuts down on what you have to look at. There are, of course, many things that will work, and what matters is that, at the end of the search, you have something that meets your criteria.

This formalized process is a recent development of mine. I needed it because I am unfamiliar with the US markets, as can be seen in a post a few days ago, I now know that the Canadian and US markets are vastly different. I always knew that the physical makeup of the markets were different (more commodities in O&G and Mining in the Canadian market, more big business and Hi-Tec in the American) but what astonished me was the pricing profile!!!!

It is no wonder that investors in the USA treat $5 stocks with contempt and most of the sub-$5 stocks are crap in the American market...a cheap stock for them basically starts near $20, whereas in Canada that is an expensive stock. Believe it or not I have a stock worth currently $0.28/share in two of my real portfolios. and this is the second time in 10 years I have owned it. The first time it went from $0.15 to $1.20 when the ore body was discovered (it is a lead, zinc, copper mine now) but it takes 5-10 years to become a producing mine so interest fades for a long time. But I am back in at $0.20 - $0.24 /share and it is JUST emerging as a producing mine.... at $0.28/share I have a nice gain so far and if the demand for base metals increases I will do very well on that stock again.

You can find such stocks in the Canadian market place if you are good at reading fundamentals.... but in American stocks I have not found a single one under $5 in the O&G and mining sectors worth holding and basically gave up on that real portfolio ... until now that is.

you have such a range to contend with in American stocks within a sector. We have similar sector breakdown but relatively few stocks to sort out...after 10+ years of sorting through them I am pretty up on most of them and can make decent choices (though I have bought my share of Canadian crap over time too.

I wish we had a screening tool like Fin-Viz.com for Canadian stocks. It makes my searching pretty easy now... by setting ROI and LT Debt/equity, choosing an industry and seeing what salts out. I play with the ROI starting at at least a positive number or zero (try it...it is amazing how many stocks have a negative ROI... Why would I want a long term stock that makes no positive return???) same with debt... there should at least be low debt to equity but when it approaches 1:1 is this a good long term prospect... I don't think so.

BTW I DO like some debt in an O&G or mining Junior.... if a stock is a start-up operation but no debt... are they serious about the company??? I don't think so.... but as a start-up becomes a producer then that debt should decrease as revenues increase...that is a start-up I like long term.


bobwest View Post
It will be interesting to see how your new portfolio is fleshed out, and how it does over time.

Yes, it will be interesting. I imagine I will have teething problems at first here.... the Canadian Journal on this site has a portfolio that has settled in nicely though I recently stopped out of Badger Daylighting which is too bad as that is an excellent company that I have been interested in for 10 years.... it will rise again when this oil fiasco sorts itself out.

It is difficult for a Canadian to have a US dollar account because right now it would cost me 15% in exchange to transfer money into it.... But this exercise is good as By the time when our two dollars reach parity I should have a good idea what I want to do with that account... or who knows I may find something that can boost the few shekels I have in it now and make something decent of it.

Good trading Bob....always enjoy your comments.

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 bobwest 
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Why would I want a long term stock that makes no positive return???) same with debt... there should at least be low debt to equity but when it approaches 1:1 is this a good long term prospect... I don't think so.

The joke about Amazon for years was that someday it will actually have a profit. It was regarded by many as a ridiculous company, pouring money into a big hole with no profits for it.

Someday, it did....

People were willing to buy it based on their idea of its prospects, when it had done nothing but lose money. That doesn't mean this is, in general a good idea -- many companies seem to have good prospects at some point, but few prove out in the end.

But there was a reason some investors liked it, and it worked out. No particular point to this, other than there is more than one way to slice things, and it depends on what you're looking for.

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
The joke about Amazon for years was that someday it will actually have a profit. It was regarded by many as a ridiculous company, pouring money into a big hole with no profits for it.

Someday, it did....

People were willing to buy it based on their idea of its prospects, when it had done nothing but lose money. That doesn't mean this is, in general a good idea -- many companies seem to have good prospects at some point, but few prove out in the end.

But there was a reason some investors liked it, and it worked out. No particular point to this, other than there is more than one way to slice things, and it depends on what you're looking for.

Bob.

I hear you... It is expectation/hype that drives the price and for day/swing trading that is fine...but it is risky. As you point out Amazon is an exception but look at Facebook...hype (not fundamentals) brought in the IPO at $45 but it quickly fell to about $18... where it stayed for about a year until it demonstrated it actually could make money. Those who bought into that hype gambled and lost.... I say lost because those people would not have held the stock for over a year to make a dime.... at least that is true for most non-company employees.

For me, those expectations are not buys... unless of course you understand the sector and company very well.... (for example my $0.28/share mine I was talking about last post.... I understand that company and its commodity/sector so the reward is worth the risk there for me).

I find in American stocks that hype is a stronger driving force than that for most Canadian stocks. We have our hyped stocks... some gold stocks are like that... a classic case was BRE-X in the 1990's...a scam that fooled everyone and had its share price driven to $25...no gold in the mine... but this was a classic too-good-to-be-true stock ... fodder for the greedy

I don't put money into "exploration" companies in mining and O&G.... they are just selling dreams. O&G is not as bad as mining. It takes about 10 years from discovery til producing mine and lots can go wrong to make that fail.... of course the dream merchants don't tell you that.

Jim

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Here is an L2 look at the last stock I said I would buy... Radiant Logistics [NYSE:RLGT]



As you can see we crossed and recrossed my bid price of $4.35 so I can assume that were my order for 4000 shares at that price would have been executed.

So now I go looking for another stock.... On Wednesday I will make my first update on the state of this portfolio...as I have done bi weekly with my Canadian portfolio.

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ok...next stock will be a pharmaceutical ....Sucampo Pharmacueticals INC [NASDQ:SCMP]

It is late and I won't spend a lot of time on this post

I will make a limit buy for 2000 shares of Sucampo Pharmacueticals INC [NASDQ:SCMP] @ $14.03/share as always I will hold back the order for 15 mins or so to see if the price falls below $14.00 then if it does I will follow it down til it hits bottom and buy it there.

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ok...I waited a while before I decided to buy into SCMP but here is the reason for considering the buy

On an FA basis about $70million in debt with 2/3 of that being current debt and overall it has been like that for a year now

Its operating income is currently $36M rising from $21M a year ago and it makes $1M - $2M in net revenue/quarter

Stock Market Quotes | Company Financials, Financial Information

I normally don't like BioPharmaceuticals because most do not make money and seem a money pit of debt. It is not unlike a prospector finding an ore body and touting how great the mine will be... dream sellers

But Sucampo Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SCMP:NASD) has an Operating revenue stream that is rising and the debt is relatively stable.

Here is the P&F chart





You can see the battle over the resistance level at $14.25...the risk is there of a failure to pass this resistance but the reward should be fine if it does

Here is the Trigger chart





Well we are taking a bit of a gamble here since the stock is not in Breakout yet. It looked better last night but is not terrible right now as we have only fallen to the 20daySMA....so far

So last night I decided to buy at $14.03 BUT I said I would wait to see what would happen after 15 mins into trading before placing the order.

Well I did and here is the L2 screen





As you can see the price went wild at the bell... 15 mins represents the first 5 candles and you see the Bollie channel that formed so I decided to wait it out and sure enough it fell....

And it is still falling

Conclusion

this is a lesson in not getting carried away with emotion AND WAITING for the trigger to show the direction.

This may still be a buy as there is a support at $14.35 though that has been breached as well that support should have been strong as it is also supported by the diagonal support....

We shall see if it retreats to close over 14.35 by the end of the day.

So... by waiting and watching the price in L2 I have dodged a bullet and not put in an order.

Wait for the trigger to be pulled before placing an order....jumping the gun is gambling and I was almost guilty of this...luck more than brains this time.

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Well not an auspicious start to this portfolio but hopefully it will get better.... My batting average is not so hot with American stocks as mentioned before

here is the financial look at this new Portfolio



more stocks to go until I am all in

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weekend portfolio status


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Well I have been quite sick for the last few days and have not paid attention to either my American and Canadian fantasy portfolios.

When it came to the update today I expected the American one here to be down but actually it has risen much to my surprise.

Here is the chart



Still lots of dollars on the sidelines but not in a rush to spend it right now.

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well I was surprised at having a positive week... on my Canadian journal you won't see such a good result there but even there it is not as bad as it was at mid week...it has been brutal in the Canadian market

but not so much here...I had my first good positive week



another week like this one and I will be where I belong in positive return territory.

I am still looking at Sucampo Pharmacueticals INC [NASDQ:SCMP]

here are updated charts on the stock





I am nervous about buying into this stock.... as you can see this stock has a history of rapid rises followed by terrifying plunges. This is one of the longer times at the top but it has been quite a volatile one. You can see the rising wedge that has formed and that is historically bullish.... but that $14.40 level looks to be a mountain of a barrier



you see the similar wedge in the Trigger chart and frankly the price though a slight neg drift is well placed ...right on the 20daysma as the BB get narrow.... but you look at the indicators...the story is not as promising

they are not negative particularly ... well maybe the MACD is

The MACD has had a continual decline since mid-Dec... you would like to see a bottom to this...lately there is a hint of a bottom but not enough to say it is real at this point

The Slow Sto is has been bullish for a long time...since mid Oct and only just fallen out of the bullish as of Jan 1... it recovered a bit but could not reenter that bullish range

the BBwidth has ratcheted up the closure of the BB's so it is well within the breakout level.

the problem is that unless the SlowSto and MACD reverse their directions the breakout will be bearish.... not bullish and that P&F pattern of beautiful rises followed by spectacular crashes may repeat.

For now SCMP is a watch..... I won't make the same mistake as I almost did a week ago... I will stick to my knitting and wait for a definite sign and not anticipate one.

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Well Sucampo Pharmacueticals INC [NASDQ:SCMP] had a great day but why have I not bought it yet.... well the TA will show the reason.

Here is the P&F chart





Well such a break through of that resistance line, I perhaps should have bought some of this company...a one day 11% swing after all....nice......

but then I look at my Trigger chart and I say whoa....




first look at the share price level in the magenta circle. It is miles above the upper BB. It should pull back after such a leap.... if it moves sideways to re-enter the BB envelope I still might buy it.

When I look at the indicator response to such a nice gain and I am underwhelmed .... the three indicators barely budged.... not impressed at all by this.

This looks like a head fake to me... maybe not but I am not liking it .... we shall see.

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well is is not a guaranteed head fake but the first stage is completed...here is today's trigger chart





See the pullback after leaping over upper bollie??? When it pulls back so strong this is a very bearish sign... notice the muted response to that rise yesterday which is immediately blunted. Now if you look at yesterday's P&F chart for SCMP you will see that the current price of $14.86 has fallen back almost to that red line which was a resistance but now is acting as a support... with this action I don't think that "support" will hold.

This stock has a history of unpredictability long term... it is off my watch list but it was at least useful in illustrating how I see head fakes

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Here is the mid-week status of this portfolio.





We are in the Black...must find one or two stocks to add to this portfolio...hopefully we hang onto this gain

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I held onto most of the gains....still have not found anything worth mentioning at this point...here is the status





Radiant is doing well....Still like Heartland

Gotta ferret out some more

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I am still in the black for this week but it has been a struggle. It seems I have chosen 2 decent stocks, whether by luck or skill I don't really know. Here is the status





I find that my knowledge of American stocks is far less than I believed. All stocks in my normal hunting range seem to be less than healthy ($1 - $10) and it is a struggle to find decent ones at higher dollar values.

If you have any suggestions, I would like to hear them... my hunt is not going well at present.

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hmmmm.... no participation...lurkers but no participation....even when I ask for some help in identifying opportunity in a marketplace that I have never been successful...as opposed to the Canadian market place where I feel comfortable.

I am discovering why I have not been successful...not because of my TA... I have just been looking in the wrong places and under-capitalized my real $US account but my experience here helping me...I will not boost my $'s in my real US account ...not with the $Cdn is worth $0.78 USD...too expensive...especially when I cannot find reasonable US stocks at reasonable prices.

Anyway I digress here is the status report for the end of this week.



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 bobwest 
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hmmmm.... no participation...lurkers but no participation....even when I ask for some help in identifying opportunity in a marketplace that I have never been successful...as opposed to the Canadian market place where I feel comfortable.

I am discovering why I have not been successful...not because of my TA... I have just been looking in the wrong places and under-capitalized my real $US account but my experience here helping me...I will not boost my $'s in my real US account ...not with the $Cdn is worth $0.78 USD...too expensive...especially when I cannot find reasonable US stocks at reasonable prices.

Anyway I digress here is the status report for the end of this week.



Well, I'm a lurker mostly, I guess.

I stopped being interested in trading stocks several years ago. In a sense, it doesn't matter, because markets are markets, and technical analysis, at least, is the same no matter what. But it does matter some; it's just a different arena. So, it's interesting to read your posts, but it's way off on the edges of what I'm doing. That's probably true of a lot of people.

Mind you, I get fairly few comments in my journal too, and it's much more like the trading that the majority are probably doing. A good part of that is simply that everyone has, to some degree, their own method, their own preferences as to trading/investing tactics and strategy, in general their own approach. I will probably read 20 or 30 posts on a slow day, and not one of them will have the same charts, indicators, methodology, or whatever. I can like them (mostly) because I can see some sense in what they do even though it isn't my particular way. And those who visit my thread apparently feel the same way, as a rule.

I will get occasional comments of the "good job" type (or, "yeah, I've screwed up that way too" ), but substantive contributions are rare, and I'm fine with that.... We're all so very different, I'm happy enough just to communicate across the differences and find some mutual ground sometime.

So, I do like your posts, I often leave a Thanks, I do mainly lurk, with an occasional exception like today, and that is, I think, pretty much to be expected. When I first came upon your thread, we had some interesting back and forths, because it was new to me. Probably we will again at some point.

I do get meaningful interactions with a number of people on trading and market topics, but it is from visiting many, many threads and kicking in something now and again, over time. Here too, it turns out.

Just another slant on the lurking/contributing question.

Bob.

PS, the one thing I have wanted to say to you and haven't, is that, at least some years ago when I did do stocks, the typical price of an American stock would usually be around $20. I thought then, and think now, that this was because "they" (you know "them" right? The guys that paranoids know are behind everything ) wanted to keep prices in around the price range that would appeal to investors with limited funds to invest. Now, (a) I could have been wrong about both the number and the motivation, and (b) obviously, conditions will change and I have no idea about what they are now. But that's a little American feedback regarding your problems finding good American stocks in the price ranges you have been used to in Canada.

I'll still mostly lurk, if you don't mind, but I do like your stuff....

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Your comments are welcome @bobwest

I know what I am doing in the stockmarket is not particularly popular on this site. I am just navel gazing when I make those comments because I know I have regular readers... not on this journal so far but definitely on my Canadian Journal. It would be nice to have stock conversations on both journals as I tend to get a little tunnel visioned and the conversations help.

I have a brother who lives in the next province to mine and we get together once/week in the evening on Skype. Our main purpose of those conversations are to stay in touch (period) but since we are both in the Canadian markets often discussions last 3-4 hours (thank god for Skype ).

He initially (5 years ago) was very anti-charting but he has mellowed a lot. He is the kinda guy than likes to dig into "news"... not the market fluff but the good stuff. It is what he does best. I am pretty good at evaluating "news" as well but it is not "ma raison d'etre". So when we meet, we thrash out whether the news of a company is significant and it usually is, though I may offer a different spin on the news.

We look at the financial reports and then if it looks pretty decent he often says "now cast your bones on this stock" and I will do a full TA as I do here.

The result of such discussions is that we arrive at really good stock picks because of this interaction. I wish we were not a thousand miles apart and could regularly get together in person. It is quite enjoyable

We don't do this on American stocks as he has no interest there and my portfolio is not a poster boy for success there either... This journal has been revealing though as in my limited investigation I have discovered the huge differences between the Canadian and American markets.... stocks are not the same between our countries and I would probably find similar differences if I took a shot at European markets.

One thing about American stocks is that there is a lot more sources of information on American stocks compared to Canadian stocks. I think I have found a pretty cool scanning tool. It is not a scanning tool as such or at least not promoted as such....but it narrows down the good stocks in a way that gives me a chance to find decent ones fairly easily.

This will be the subject of future posts here .... {sigh} they don't perform the same service for Canadian stocks so It would not be discussed in my other journal.

Thanks for your comments

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I want to show you something that I have found that will be VERY useful in identifying potential American stock picks. Unfortunately there is no such animal that does this for Canadian stocks that I am aware of... I wish there were.

the entryway to this beauty is on Stockcharts.com and is just one more reason to make this website a major information source if you are a chartist.

StockCharts.com - Simply the Web's Best Financial Charts

At the bottom of the page you will find the entrance to an analysis of stocks by sector





If you are looking just for top/bottom stocks you can look at the other locations but we want to do an analysis by sector so for now we will click on Sector Summary





As you can see the sectors are ranked by how they performed EOD, Weekly, Month and so on. I don't pay much attention to EOD rankings.... any stock can be a one day wonder... I want to find a stock that is improving for a month... not just one day so I will check out Month since this has the best chance at showing a stock in a breakout mode.





I will look at the #1 sector water utilities and see what I will find





So we take the best of a bad lot of sectors We have a clear idea of the good and bad choices in a variety price ranges.

Of course the low cost stock attracts me first.... especially when it has gained 43% in a month... STW Resources Holding Corp is OTCB so I don't like to dabble in this area of the market so reluctantly I will give it a miss.

Here is one in a better price range.... Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. [NASD GS:CWCO]..... Here is my trigger chart





Not bad!!! Not a buy yet but certainly a possibility.... See the resistance and support channel? Also the Slow Sto is looking fine... the MACD could be more positive but the BBwidth is poised to move any day now

This is a stock worth more investigation in FA

I will be using this approach more looking in other sectors.... especially sectors and industries that are doing badly... I cannot think of a better way to discover best-of breed stocks.

Hope you found this as interesting as I have...

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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ok... I am going to use this Sector performance to weed out performers from pretenders.

I am going to find the best 1 or maybe 2 Utility stocks

I will use a method similar to what I have used in my Canadian Journal....I won't repeat it in total but refer you here to the discussion I laid out in my Canadian Journal



I am replacing the stock scan in that method which is the best I can do for Canadian stocks with the Sector analysis that I have shown above, then applying the Dividend analysis/return and the rest of the analysis as shown in the link taking only stocks that are green for the last month.

I am half way through the first cut.... It looks to be a very interesting race...Utilities are much more active here.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

as I said the first step is to identify the stocks you want to test and that is by using the Sector summary information you get from Stockcharts.com

Next is to determine the YTD (actually I did a one year test here), 3 year and 5 year return for each stock....as this grouping of stocks have dividends this would include dividend returns

I use this tool for that... I use it for non-dividend stocks too...very useful for side-by-side evaluations

Stock Dividends

now I rank each stock choosing the best 2 from each utility industry and combing them and re- analyzing these winners and re-ranking them

It was a close contest for the top 6 shown in green below. Only these will be looked at from the POV of Fundamentals (income and debt) and TA




I will update my evaluation as we go along in the coming days

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

Hmmmmm.... I have never run into a NEGATIVE debt/equity ratio.

here is a definition

Negative Equity Definition | Investopedia


Quoting 
DEFINITION of 'Negative Equity'

When the value of an asset falls below the outstanding balance on the loan used to purchase that asset. Negative equity is calculated simply by taking the value of the asset less the balance on the outstanding loan.

I don't think I like this but most of the utilities I chose have it....but not all



I am rejecting those with negative Debt/equity....doesn't seem right to me.

The 2 Fixed telecommunition stocks look interesting...I will check out the TA on IDT Corp [IDT] and Vonage Holdings Corp [VG]

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  #41 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

I still have not made a decision on the above Utilities.... I was a little ticked off to see such large companies have negative debt to equity values...not just one company but most of them that I selected for final selection. Perhaps this is normal for the industry but I don't feel comfortable so I don't buy. Things have been good... what would happen to these guys in bad times??? don't know...don't want to find out.

The week so far is not working out...but things are volatile so who knows how the week would end.



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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Well, I narrowed my search down to 2 stocks... IDT Corp [IDT] and Vonage Holdings Corp [VG]

Now comes to the Technical Analysis

I have 4 basic charts that I use time in...time out. If you read my Canadian Journal you will understand the development of these charts and why they are arranged as they are. I am not going to repeat the gory details of how they are arranged... I will just interpret them side by side.

I always start with a P&F chart...basically because it gives me more of a long term feel for the stock. I can identify resistance/support on a macro level this way which is more important in long term trading than day trading... the latter you must find subtle short term R/S





Both charts are reasonably bullish in the past.... the difference is that the one for VG has 2 major resistances ahead of it, at $4.50 and then soon after at $4.80...IF it breaks these resistances...man that would be a great buy But either on could scuttle the rise. On the other hand there is a diagonal and a horizontal resistance... I feel tend to feel diagonal resistances, especially where one of the main points are over a year old are somewhat weak... so I would say there is less resistance to rising prices for IDT but just marginally so... not much difference here.

Advantage to IDT




This is my "trigger chart" and shows whether a share price is about to break out or if a a bull/bear run is comming to an end.

There is VERY LITTLE to choose from here... both stocks are in consolidation after a bullish run... the bull run for IDT is much better than VG. ... not choppy but rather a continuous rise from Oct.

On the other hand there is little difference between the indicators....there is a slight edge here to VG as the Slow Sto remains in the bullish so-called Over-bought zone but the MACD and BBWidth look very similar.... both stocks will not make their true direction known for about 7-10 business days IMHO

No advantage either way





here too the sentiment (my term) charts are almost the same...the RSI is stronger in the IDT bullish run but that is over for now ... the ADX DI+/- currently is identical.... the CMF sligtly favours IDT as the VG values are definitely on the decline whereas the CMF in the IDT cahrt hints at a decline

Advantage very slight to IDT





clearly the OnBal Volume is much more bullish while the CCI is quite similar currently but the IDT chart shows a longer bull run.

Not much difference in the Ichimoku charts...under than the share price is higher above the green clouds.

I give a very slight advantage to IDT because of the On Bal Vol


Conclusion

Both stocks right now look about equal.... I give a slight preference to IDT Corp [NYSE:IDT] but only by the barest amount. Also I find less resistance ahead of IDT as shown in the P&F charts.

It won't be known for a week or so as I mentioned before a breakout will be bull or bear.

I believe it will probably come down to test its support level around $21.40

I will place a smaller 500 share order for IDT Corp [NYSE:IDT] with a limit bid of $21.45/share

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 grausch 
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Looks like an interesting thread. I skimmed through this, so apologies if I missed this, but how and when do you decide to cut your losses?

I bought some HTLD in March 2014, but exited a couple of days later when it could not hold my breakout point. Close to a year later, I would not have been up much on the position.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Hi and thank you for your comments

Heartland Express is not working out very well as a long term play right now and I will probably sell it though I will give it a chance to recover.

I Have had a great deal of trouble finding good long term picks on the American exchanges... if you look at my Canadian journal I have much more success there and feel more comfortable....but that is the excuse...not the reason for my failures in the American marketplace and already by constructing this journal I have found several reasons for my past failures.

But let us talk about Heartland stock HTLD.

I have not been paying the attention to this stock that I should have... but let us look at the reasons and mistakes that I have made and what I would do now..

Here is the P&F chart






the share price has a maximum at $27.80...this is its all time high... at the time I bought it the stock was heading for another run at that all time high. If it had breached that resistance things would have gone well but it did not go that way.

This was never a really good choice for a buy in the first place but I was struggling to find some kind of stock to start this portfolio.

I should have sold it when it broke through that red line which was a support at $25.60 and now turned resistance. It was a strong support at the time(one top of "X" column and 2 bottom of "O" columns). The next support is somewhere around $24.10 ish as shown in the chart.

I have not got a huge loss from a long term standpoint ... a $1 loss on $25 is less than 5% so not serious though if you were a daytrader it would be a disaster I suppose. I will give this stock a chance to recover off this support... break this support and I would sell. for sure.

let us look at my so-called trigger chart now






you see my buy-in point it was bouncing off a support at the time .... selling at $27.50 was not an option for me as it is not enough gain and if it breached that high I would have missed a greater gain

Now this is not my best choice of a stock situation.... I usually use this trigger chart to decide when to buy and I violated my rules here. This link takes you to a detailed discussion of how I use this chart



back to the chart in question.

you can see that the price was following a R/S channel. Now look at the vertical red line....this was a sell signal for this chart.... in the dotted blue line you see the declining Slow Sto , declining MACD, these were clues things not going well....but the sudden rise of the BBwidth is the REASON to sell..... and I did not look at this.

Now look at the orange circle

See that when the price fell ... it fell hard and was below the lower Bollinger Band.... it stayed below for 3 days and now has re-entered the Bollie envelope.

Is this a bottom??? Not yet...it may be only a rest before further declines

Now look at the MACD and BBwidth in the small blue circle.

IF...IF the MACD rises at the same time the BBwidth falls....this is sort of a "pinch" and may indicate a bottom as well. So far these two indicators are only hinting at doing this maneuver. If that happens then the share price has a tendacy to go to the dotted green line (20daySMA)

So we are at a decision point now

So what do I do....well I won't sell outright... I rarely do so.

What I will do is protect myself from a much greater loss. I will set a LIMIT STOP-LOSS just below that support line in the P&F chart

I will set a LIMIT STOP-LOSS order for 1000 shares of Heartland Express [NASD:HTLD] in a range from $$24.00 - $24.05

doing a potential sale this way gives the stock the potential to recover.... if it does recover, I will trail the limit stop-loss behind it's rise...until it eventually sells or I decide that the order is no longer necessary and I will cancel it.

Has far as how I judge how long to keep a stock goes it is a several post discussion.... I have done this already in my other journal but am willing to discuss it here if you want the details here.

Essentially it involves looking at the price as it approaches a resistance... if it passes then I am good until it reaches the next resistance then another decision is required. Sometimes the price stalls and I could use the money elsewhere so I will take the profits and re-invest.

I am willing to discuss more if this interests you...and ask questions along the way...Please do.

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 bobwest 
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I am willing to discuss more if this interests you...and ask questions along the way...Please do.

Thorough, as usual. Thanks.

Bob.

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 Underexposed 
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Well Heartland Express has dragged us down this week.... I have placed the limit Stop-loss sell on the company as well as added the buy order for IDT Corp

Hopefully things turn around next week


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 grausch 
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Underexposed,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. You seem to have a logical way of running through the decision making process. I don't wish to a) post in a way which may influence your decision making process in this journal, and b) come across as judging your decisions. Any posts here are purely my opinion.

HTLD - I actually had two stabs at this stock - one on 21.03.2014 and one on 12.09.2014. What attracted me to the stock was the fact that it was trading in a narrow range with an upswing in earnings and a big upswing in sales. However, the stock just never gained traction and both times I sold for a small loss (<5%) after a couple of days. Usually I would hold longer, but there was never any volume on the upside. Right now, earnings and sales are slowing, volume on negative days is big, and the stock broke through its prior low creating a lower low. Thus, not on my radar any more.

IDT - On my main stock scan, but I missed the initial cup-with-handle breakout at 20.43 on 07.01.2015. Volume characteristics have been good and earnings seem to be increasing nicely. Perhaps a little extended now, so I will watch but not buy.

Since this is a journal with simulated money, I'll offer some friendly advice - I have found that having "decision points" on stop-losses is generally not a good idea. Yes, a stock may recover and you will feel like a fool for selling, but if you ever get stuck in a stock that just implodes, you may find that when you sell you will sell at the low of the move. Much better to just get out at a predefined loss and be done with it. Less regret and less what-ifs. A good example of what can go wrong is CROX which completely imploded in 2007/2008. The first day of selling came without warning and was brutal. At that point, you just want to step aside and reevaluate.

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grausch View Post
Underexposed,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. You seem to have a logical way of running through the decision making process. I don't wish to a) post in a way which may influence your decision making process in this journal, and b) come across as judging your decisions. Any posts here are purely my opinion.

HTLD - I actually had two stabs at this stock - one on 21.03.2014 and one on 12.09.2014. What attracted me to the stock was the fact that it was trading in a narrow range with an upswing in earnings and a big upswing in sales. However, the stock just never gained traction and both times I sold for a small loss (<5%) after a couple of days. Usually I would hold longer, but there was never any volume on the upside. Right now, earnings and sales are slowing, volume on negative days is big, and the stock broke through its prior low creating a lower low. Thus, not on my radar any more.

IDT - On my main stock scan, but I missed the initial cup-with-handle breakout at 20.43 on 07.01.2015. Volume characteristics have been good and earnings seem to be increasing nicely. Perhaps a little extended now, so I will watch but not buy.

Since this is a journal with simulated money, I'll offer some friendly advice - I have found that having "decision points" on stop-losses is generally not a good idea. Yes, a stock may recover and you will feel like a fool for selling, but if you ever get stuck in a stock that just implodes, you may find that when you sell you will sell at the low of the move. Much better to just get out at a predefined loss and be done with it. Less regret and less what-ifs. A good example of what can go wrong is CROX which completely imploded in 2007/2008. The first day of selling came without warning and was brutal. At that point, you just want to step aside and reevaluate.

I don't mind this kind of discussion.

Heartland Express was a stock picked at a time when it looked as though it was going to break an all time high. Things looked favourable to me as you could see from previous posts and at the time fuel costs were falling and the American economy was seeming to improve... so I believed there was a good shot at breaching that resistance.

It does not have a history of falling off the earth... it does have a history of pullbacks and then recovery.

I hear you as far as sudden dives But in the case of CROX you would have had to be psychic to have sold it at its high

Crocs Chokes (CROX)


Quoting 
True, Crocs' third-quarter results were impressive, with net income more than doubling to $56.5 million, or $0.66 per share. Revenues were similarly strong, growing 130% to $256.3 million. However, if you compare this balance sheet to its year-ago counterpart, inventory has increased 297%, far outpacing Crocs' increase in sales; meanwhile, accounts receivable swelled 165%. Both could be red flags.

The reason Crocs' shares have taken a substantial tumble, though, is because its guidance fell short of Wall Street's expectations. As with many premium-priced stocks, missteps can shake confidence, causing such a stock to sell off because it was so pricey to begin with.

Back then things were out of control and shortly thereafter was the huge financial crash.





This is one case where TA would not have helped at all. It is an anomaly... that catches any one it was that fast a reaction to missing expectations.

I do not use simple Stop-loss as you can see. I like Limit stop-loss... I find this a better way to sell stocks... I have been very emotional in the past regarding sale of stock. I find that using a limit Stop-loss reduces that emotion.

the limit stop-loss gives a dollar range where the sell order is valid. I find that if a stock is truly selling then it will drift through this range...

If the price plunges through that range then it is usually an over reaction to some news. A normal stop-loss order has created a market sell that will be filled as soon as possible and that is usually at the bottom of that fall. I don't like that since it usually pulls back somewhat and I will access the situation and I should get a better price

So my use of a Limit Stop loss order for selling a stock is to take the emotion out of selling. I have made the decision to sell but the actual point of selling has not been decided yet and I will move that selling range up if it rises....

It is just a way to take the emotion out of a sale and it works for me.


BTW: Though for the purposes of this journal this is a fake stock profile. HOWEVER... I have made this as real as possible by announcing my trades before they would be executed in reality, I use real data not simulated data and I post bi-weekly status updates and you see the good weeks and bad weeks. If I announce a price I wish to buy or sell and the price drifts through that range I will assume my order would have been filled. If it gaps above or below I will talk about that and what I would do.

I don't have a big American portfolio in real life (contrary to my Canadian portfolios) In my Canadian journal the performance most (if not all) stocks there are probably in my real portfolios...in different quantities of course... The American journal here is totally new as I try to understand the American markets....which, if you read this journal from the start, has startled me as to how different they are from Canadian markets and this is probably the reason for my past failures in buying/selling American equities.

Your discussion is welcome

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  #49 (permalink)
 grausch 
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I don't mind this kind of discussion.

Perfect, I like your journal and like the thought that goes into your posts.


Quoting 
It is just a way to take the emotion out of a sale and it works for me.

Perfect again, you have a method that works for you with regards to getting out. Regarding CROX, I was not in it thus can't comment on how I would have gotten out. Knowing my own trading, it probably would have been close to the bottom of the day's range...That being said, even getting out there would have saved my neck since it looks like CROX lost 99% of its value thereafter.

Please also note that I was not criticizing your use of the Stop-Limit order. I was merely pointing out that you referred to HTLD being in a "decision point" area. Again, in my own trading, and yours is very probably different, I like to have my scenarios planned in advance. Thus, once a stock reaches a certain level, I know I need to start getting out. My downside protection is already planned the moment I place my initial buy. By having this in place, I hope to mitigate some of the shock when an event like the CROX break occurs. Not perfect, but that is what I use. Thus, regarding losses, there is no decision to be made while I am in the trade. That decision is made right at the beginning of the trade.

Other than that, I might refrain from posting a little for now, but will keep on reading your journal. I find that the more I post on forums, the worse my trading results become. Could never quite figure out how that works.

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 Underexposed 
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grausch View Post
Perfect, I like your journal and like the thought that goes into your posts.

Thank you for the compliment... appreciated


grausch View Post
Perfect again, you have a method that works for you with regards to getting out. Regarding CROX, I was not in it thus can't comment on how I would have gotten out. Knowing my own trading, it probably would have been close to the bottom of the day's range...That being said, even getting out there would have saved my neck since it looks like CROX lost 99% of its value thereafter.

2007 - 2009 was a real education for me... up to mid 2007 I was making money hand over fist... but by March 2009 I had lost about 45% of my holdings... but only on paper... I did not do a lot of selling then. It was very depressing to see all your gains fall away... so my philosophy then was just to hold tight and not sell.

That is still a major thought that I have in a decline. If the decline is due to a problem within the company I would sell easily.... but when the company is caught in the collateral damage of something beyond its control I woul hang on and ride it out.... It still is part of my thoughts today.

People would ask...how did you survive that crash and not sell your stocks??? Well I had a contingency plan back then. As I said I was making pretty good coin prior to mid-2007, So I salted away about 5% of any profitable sale into into Money Market Mutual Funds... they are always worth $10/unit and paid a minuscule distribution. I had enough in there by mid 2007 to be able to hunker down and draw money from these units to survive 3 years if necessary and not touch my equities.

I have now developed ways of taking the emotion out of the sale as I pointed out so my philosophy has changed somewhat


grausch View Post
Please also note that I was not criticizing your use of the Stop-Limit order. I was merely pointing out that you referred to HTLD being in a "decision point" area. Again, in my own trading, and yours is very probably different, I like to have my scenarios planned in advance. Thus, once a stock reaches a certain level, I know I need to start getting out. My downside protection is already planned the moment I place my initial buy. By having this in place, I hope to mitigate some of the shock when an event like the CROX break occurs. Not perfect, but that is what I use. Thus, regarding losses, there is no decision to be made while I am in the trade. That decision is made right at the beginning of the trade.

There are many ways to skin the investment cat... mine is only one and I did not climb a mountain and return with tablets So I am open to opinion though I may not always agree and as long as it is civil and no attempt is made to hijack the direction of my Journal I am good with it. I like discussing stuff as often some of my best ideas have been spawned by such interaction.

You will see that my trading strategy is a combination of fundamentals and technical. I have really discussed charting in great detail in my Canadian Stock journal. I don't plan on duplicating those posts in as much detail but when necessary I will post links to my other journal so you can see how a chart I have developed evolved.

You will not see me use any "protection" when I buy... I am pretty confident of where the price is going long term... though in the short term I have losses in the 5-10%. I find that if you deal with fundamentally sound companies the bottom does not usually fall out of the share price.


grausch View Post
Other than that, I might refrain from posting a little for now, but will keep on reading your journal. I find that the more I post on forums, the worse my trading results become. Could never quite figure out how that works.

hahaha... post when you can and as often as you want.

If I may suggest one place to read in my Canadian Journal it is here



this is where I discuss in gory detail the construction and basic use of my so-called "trigger" chart. Of all the charts I use this is the major one I use.

There is a lot more interpretation than I show there but each company's chart is different and tells a different story as you assemble the clues.

Take care and good trading

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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not such a hot week though Heartland is not plummeting to trip the Limit stop loss, even though I raised the limit stop loss to save a few more dollars.





A small loss so far but a loss none the same.

We came close to buying IDT Corp today when the price wandered down to $21.70 and we had the limit bid at $21.40 as shown in this chart





Here is the daily chart





Here you see in the main chart the spike down but it pulled back to close above the 20day sma

Now look at the Slow Sto.... it has made a curl upwards... the MACD is still on the neg slope so it is very important to watch for the breakout now.... Note the BBwidth...it has fallen into a range where a breakout can happen any day now.

I had hoped to sell this stock at the lower price but I don't think the price will go that low again soon. I think it will test that 20daySMA again before rising again and hence trip the revised order at $22.00

That is the plan anyway

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Well, wonder of wonders a positive week for a change. The Heartland Express [HTL] is responding well after I applied the limit stop-loss... I keep moving it higher as it climbs and some day it will trip a sale... no emotion to this method of selling and I let it recover in price. I have lots of cash right now.... if I needed the money for another opportunity I would have pulled the plug by now...but that is not necessary as I am having trouble finding a good long term play in the $20-$35 / share range {sigh}

Here is the status report




Good trading .....

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 Underexposed 
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I have not been overly satisfied with a couple of my indicators... specifically commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

They have been reasonable to use but often I was not happy with my interpretation of their charts and the look they give is frankly similar and I want to eliminate that.

I have not tried every indicator that is out there....It takes time to review them all and I was satisfied with what I have...but now I have changed my mind after seeing how the FORCE INDEX indicator is used.

I had looked at this indicator in the past but as is normal most indicator discussions on the net are directed at the intraday trader....not the long term trader. By accident my attention was draw to this indicator and I dug in further...liking what I was seeing more and more

the index is described quite well here on Stockcharts.com

Force Index [ChartSchool]

the calculation is quite simple, taking a series of one period (for a daily chart it would be one day) and taking the closing price for that day... comparing it to the previous closing price... subtract the current closing price from the previous periods multiply that by the closing volume for the period and that becomes Force(1).... Force(14) would be a 14 day ema of the last 14 days of Force (1) values..... Force(100) would simply the 100 day EMA of the past 100 Force(1) values.

I looked at what Force (9), Force(14) and Force(100) on a chart for CPG.TO





now this is really interesting ....look how clear the Force (100) defines bull from bear.... the green means Bull/ Brown is bear.

now in the blue box you see the values are very small and chatter above and below .... as a long term trader I don't like this...it is not clear to me what is going on....an intraday trader wants more action but I don't.

Below the index stays green throughout.... but it still gives me info....in the trend of the green lines... it trends up as the strength grows and as it declines the possibility of going full on bear increases.

the RED line amazes me...all three identified the day the chart went from Bull to Bear.... this is because the index uses EMA and not SMA for calculating the Force index.... it is the first time I clearly see the advantage of EMA in action.

the lower values identified the bottom well enough .... the Force(100) did as well if you look at the peak in the mud. But as you can see it treated the consolation with suspicion... the value in Force(100) trended well where the other 2 declared a bull run... which is fine for a short term swing.... the real bull run comes in mid Jan....Blue line... the trend looks fine now

This is the first blush at this indicator .... for long term trading so far I think this is a great indicator at 100, force (100)

This is my first post on this indicator... it won't be the last.

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  #54 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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that's an interesting indicator that kind of puts that volume/price relationship theory into a couple of lines.

one thought though....i'm not sure that the relationship holds all the time. for example, there are many times when a trend can continue rising on very little volume, which should show a decrease in the curve (in an uptrend). one nice thing is exhaustion volume would be easily demonstrated if it coincides with a price peak, and there would be a divergence in volume that's easy to see in a second peak (if it made a double top).

just thinking out loud.


P.S.
As an aside - I like indicators that demonstrate market structure. Price average is fine, and does shed some light on the relative trendiness of price but doesn't really describe structure. I think price and volume together do bring out some structure, and other things like volume-weighted average price, price standard deviations, and volume concentrations I'm finding helpful. I'm starting to use some volume profiling to look at where volume is concentrated. Also, I'm slowly getting away from using time. I feel like time (like day or week or 15min) is a relative description of the market and doesn't really bring out its structure. Though trading is definitely limited by time, and people's bonuses and such are based productivity per time unit. Seeing how price tends to move in blocks, I've started to use range/momentum bars (though the range is something that's arbitrarily defined) to help me see what price is really doing.

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jackbravo View Post
that's an interesting indicator that kind of puts that volume/price relationship theory into a couple of lines.

one thought though....i'm not sure that the relationship holds all the time. for example, there are many times when a trend can continue rising on very little volume, which should show a decrease in the curve (in an uptrend). one nice thing is exhaustion volume would be easily demonstrated if it coincides with a price peak, and there would be a divergence in volume that's easy to see in a second peak (if it made a double top).

this is true and I don't think this would be quite so visible if one use the Force Index at a smaller interval. What you would see is a small oscillation around the zero point...but in Force (100) you can trend the green or brown line (depending on whether you are playing the stock bullish or bearish) and see those reduced volumes effect.

Again....my focus is on a long term hold... if one were looking for a short term swing I would probably suggest a smaller value for the FORCE Index... this would NOT MEAN I would do this for intra-day trading using a 5 minute chart since an 8 hour day would be similar to a 96 day chart (however, I would not use this on a chart that has frequent data omissions during a 5 minute period.

My next post will be comparing the use of this indicator to CCI and CMF.... As I said earlier these indicators are ones in my collection that I would like to replace.

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 Underexposed 
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Ok... I have looked at a comparison of Force(100) to the way I am using CMF and CCI and it is quite enlightening

I have taken the three stocks that so far interest me Heartland Express [NASD:HTLD], Radiant Logistics Inc. [AMEX:RLGT] and finally IDT Corp [NYSE:IDT] and here we go.....


Heartland Express [NASD:HTLD]





this has been a stock with a trailing stop-loss since that dive in the first couple of days in Feb when it took that swan dive

Now the drop was suggested in the Force(100) because it went from green to brown... if you were vigilent there you had a 2 day heads-up that something bad was to follow... why would you follow this indicator??? Look at the contrary formation between the movement of the share price and the Force(100).... see the steady decline since April in the peaks.... THAT SHOULD HAVE ALERTED ME that something bad was on the horizon... the mild drop in the mud in early Jan/2015 hopefully would have jerked me awake to put a limit stop-loss on this stock and trailed the rise until it sold

However I did not buy this stock until then in this portfolio. {sigh}

You get none of this information in the CMF... yes, it follows the dips and dives of the stock price.... but I would be buying and selling this stock every few days if followed this and look at the comparison within the red box. The CMF looks downright bearish... by comparison the CCI is bullish except for that dip in early October... the Force(100) was bullish throughout but with declining strength.

The CCI does do a decent job of showing the dips and dives of the stock in the moment...CMF not so much... sometimes it shows bullish when it is bear... the trends are as meaningful.


Radiant Logistics Inc. [AMEX:RLGT]





here again it is soooo easy to interpret the FORCE(100).... the trend declined for almost 6 months but this did not end in a bear result...You even got a heads-up of better days to come with that higher peak at the end of the orange arrow and Blue line... the CCI gave it too by being above and around 100... the CFM dropped into the mud...false negative

Now the CCI is not perfect... in the end of Oct it drops to bear...where the Force(100) is strong and tall

Currently the stock has taken a dip while in consolidation and you can see that reflected in the declining Force(100)... the CCI shows this to be a bearish dip the CMF basically says all is fine

I believe this to be true... the bollies will get tighter before a real movement is determined


IDT Corp [NYSE:IDT]





In this case all three give decent information but I like the increasing strength of the FORCE (100) which emulated the price rise ... the CCI is showing some caution as the share price is in the throat of a BB squeeze... the CMF is turning bearish Which I don't see as imminent.


CONCLUSION

This is not extensive testing at all but I think I will be removing CMF from my "sentiment Chart and replacing it with Force(100)

it is 1:00pm in the trading day Feb 18....I am raising my Limit Stop Loss on Heartland Express to $25.60 to $25.64.... I think there are further drops in store but I will give it a chance to rise further...but this stop-loss is very tight and I expect it to sell soon.

I notice that IDT Corp fell to $22.12 (you can see it on the low of the day in the chart above) so I am happy with the purchase of the stock.

I hope you have found this post helpful....I think I will go to my Canadian stock journal and test out the stocks there to see if any should be put under a magnifying glass.

Good Trading


EDIT... rats.... I made a mistake... the bid was for $22.00 not $22.20 so though it was close it is no cigar...the Stock price of IDT rose to $22.25 by the end of day.

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Well I sold Heartland Express... using the trailing Limit Stop-Loss allowed me to reclaim most of the losses that occurred during the drop a while ago... I think this stock will drop in the near future...I gave it a chance and it has not really performed.

IDT Corp is another matter ....it is primed for a breakout as can be seen in this chart.





The Slo Sto is in the 80 range, the MACD does have a slight decline but not severe... the BBwidth is in the range for a breakout... It still could go anywhere.... the price is right on top of the 20daySMA... the stock is holding its cards close to its chest.





this chart has the new Force Index indicator that I have been discussing earlier... first note that the 20 daySMA is acting as support...

the Force Index looks great but it has leveled off with a slight decline... I would call this mildly bullish still.

The RSI is flat now but in bullish territory.... I would call this neutral bullish... neutral for its flat slope, bullish for its location.

Same deal with the DI+/- neutral bullish





the Ichimoku chart is bullish... the thin blue line is above the thin red one and the price is above the green cloud... there may be trouble on the horizon if it falters as that cloud is getting closer.

the on bal Vol is full on bullish and the CCI is neutral.

I will be watching this stock like a hawk in the morning...any hint of a positive breakout without falling to $22.00 and I will buy it... in truth I should buy it right now but I won't... I believe my bid will work


Here is the Mid-week status reflecting the sale of Heartland Express

I feel stuck in neutral in this portfolio but at least I am treading water so far


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 Underexposed 
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well the price of IDT Corp fell to $22.00 as can be seen in this chart so I will assume my order for 500 shares is now filled



Now it can reverse and start making money

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Well, still plugging away in this portfolio here is the week end status




Like my Canadian portfolio I have applied limit stop loss orders to these stocks... in the Canadian one I am protecting fantasy profits....here I suppose I am protecting against further losses things seem so uncertain to me with Oil prices, Ukraine, Greece and whatever.

IDT Corp looks like it will break out early next week.

Here are links to the charts I am monitoring.


IDT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this trigger chart is really ripe... I think I might even add to this holding.

IDT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


See the uptick in the Force (100).... actually all indicators look fine.

could be very early in the week

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 Underexposed 
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Just a note to say that I am taking a breather and traveling south to visit my son, daughter-in-law and grandson.

I will be back on this site as of Saturday... it is just a short vacay.

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 Underexposed 
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well 4 days of neglect and still treading water





IDT fell hard after buying.... the limit stop loss is in place and was almost tripped ... my success rate on American stocks Sucks big time so-far

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 Underexposed 
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ok...tomorrow I hope that IDT Corp recovers and does not trip the limit Stop-loss.

I did a search today and think I have come up with a winner.

Cowen Group Inc. [Nasdaq:COWN]

Here are the charts that grabbed my attention





It has taken over 5 years to reach this point and has been solidly on the move since 2013. The stock has breached an all time high and if you believe the computer analysis (and I usually take these guesses with a grain of salt) we are headed for $7.10 eventually.





This is my trigger chart...the chart that predicts breakouts.

We were 2 weeks or so late at catching the breakout which you can see on the green line about Feb 12...see the rise in the BBwidth which followed the strong rise of the MACD and Slo Sto...note that these latter indicators as usually happens lead the way... but it is the sudden rise of the BBwidth that pulls the trigger.... in this case a buy

the dotted red line shows a sell sign... Here the MACD and Slo Sto lead the way but they are falling...so when the BBwidth rises here it is a sell or a shorting opportunity.

In the blue box shows the end of the bearish run... see the MACD/BBwidth squeeze lead by a rise in the Slow sto... then MACD and the fall in the BBwidth.

currently in the above purple circle you see the share price closed above the upper Bollie... this is the second day it has done so... rarely does this happen more than 4 days in a row. So a pullback to bring the price under the BBwidht is expected in the next day or so.... however see the Slow Sto pegged into the region above 80 and the strong slopes of the MACD and BBWidth... any pullback at this time should be sides...not a plunge.





This is my sentiment chart. What a beauty!

the Force(100) indicator could not be more bullish... the RSI 30 has a beautiful positive slope approaching 70 and the DI+/- has an amazing bullish divergence

not a bearish bone in this chart.





this is my Ichimoku chart + indicators.

Another totally bullish chart in all respects. the Ichi is a way above the clouds and rising the thin blue/red lines are bullishly diverging... the On Bal Vol is super as is the CCI


Fundamental Analysis

here is the latest financial report dated last week. It is a beauty as well...read just the highlights if nothing else. this is a sample of the previous quarter highlights... this is a year end report so there are yearly highlights as well as the complete report in this link


Quoting 
2014 Fourth Quarter Highlights

Economic income was $18.9 million or $0.16 per diluted common share, compared to $2.7 million or $0.02 per diluted common share in the prior year period.
GAAP net income was $142.5 million or $1.21 per diluted common share compared to $2.5 million or $0.02 per diluted common share for the fourth quarter 2013. As previously mentioned, GAAP net income includes the Company's deferred tax valuation allowance which was released in the quarter, resulting in a deferred tax benefit of $128.1 million.
Revenue rose 72% year over year to $165.8 million from $96.5 million in the prior year period.
Assets under management increased by $320 million in the fourth quarter 2014.

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Conclusion

On the basis of this analysis I will enter an limit order for my fantasy portfolio for:

5000 shares of Cowen Group Inc. [Nasdaq:COWN] @ $5.30/share

the order will be entered shorthly after the bell on Monday Mach 2/15..... if the price is lower I will track it down to its lowest point before buying to get it cheaper... if the price is higher I will enter the order as stated and wait for it to come to my level... I may chase it if it takes off but not initially.

Good trading.

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 grausch 
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ok...tomorrow I hope that IDT Corp recovers and does not trip the limit Stop-loss.

I did a search today and think I have come up with a winner.

Cowen Group Inc. [Nasdaq:COWN]


Conclusion

On the basis of this analysis I will enter an limit order for my fantasy portfolio for:

5000 shares of Cowen Group Inc. [Nasdaq:COWN] @ $5.30/share

the order will be entered shorthly after the bell on Monday Mach 2/15..... if the price is lower I will track it down to its lowest point before buying to get it cheaper... if the price is higher I will enter the order as stated and wait for it to come to my level... I may chase it if it takes off but not initially. It won't be on my watchlist, but I will see how your trade progresses.

Good trading.

You seem to know what you're doing, so I am not offering criticism or advice. The below is merely my views on the two stocks you have on your radar.

IDT ticks a lot of the boxes and is currently on my watchlist. It is a pity that it sold off on such high volume as I generally prefer low volume in my bases. My portfolio is currently fully loaded, but should something stop out and IDT stay above 20.81, then I may consider some at 23.

COWN ticks a lot of my boxes, but there are 2 things I dislike about it, namely 1) it is cheap at $5.29 and b) it looks a little extended. I generally avoid stocks below $12 and prefer them above $20. Purely because of IBD and Dan Zanger and by using price minimums it keeps the number of stocks in my watchlist down. This is a tough one - it looks good, has had a nice consolidation and volatility has decreased, however, the low price could make it more volatile.

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grausch View Post
You seem to know what you're doing, so I am not offering criticism or advice. The below is merely my views on the two stocks you have on your radar.

IDT ticks a lot of the boxes and is currently on my watchlist. It is a pity that it sold off on such high volume as I generally prefer low volume in my bases. My portfolio is currently fully loaded, but should something stop out and IDT stay above 20.81, then I may consider some at 23.

COWN ticks a lot of my boxes, but there are 2 things I dislike about it, namely 1) it is cheap at $5.29 and b) it looks a little extended. I generally avoid stocks below $12 and prefer them above $20. Purely because of IBD and Dan Zanger and by using price minimums it keeps the number of stocks in my watchlist down. This is a tough one - it looks good, has had a nice consolidation and volatility has decreased, however, the low price could make it more volatile.

Thanks for your comment.. and while I am a bit shaky when it comes to the American market, I certainly believe in my style of Technical Analysis as evidenced in my Canadian Journal.

Your comment is welcome and serves as a second thought but if I ignored the analysis that I presented in my previous post, I might as well stop trading all together.

Rarely have I seen such a bullish set of charts starting with the P&F chart which shows it breaching a resistance that has stood for 5 years... traders who know this stock realize this and should respond accordingly. As I mentioned thre is NOT ONE negative in the entire set of 4 charts. I know that most here do not believe in indicators....but I do when used properly .... I take a consensus as though all indicators can give misinformation but they do not do so at the same time... there is not a negative in this whole set of charts...the consensus is definitely BULLISH.

TA aside I also look at the FA side of things and this rise in share price is not some random event.

You may or may not believe in financial reports but I like to look for confirmations of events and the week old year end report (best financials you could lay your hands on) is very bullish in its lack of long term debt and increase of earnings per share over the last year.

I agree that a stock less than $10 in American stocks are iffy... I have commented on this in the past. I combed through about 100 such stocks and found only 4 worth looking at in depth and of those only this one stood out as being worth buying.

It sounds to me that the major objection you have is simply based on its share price. As I said in past posts I was surprised at how poor most American stocks in the $5-$10 performed compared to Canadian stocks. But this seems to be a cut above the majority of American stocks in this price range.

If I am wrong....sobeit... I cannot think this analysis will fail me after being so reliable in Canadian stocks. But this is a journal of trying things and this is a fantasy portfolio but done so in the closest way I can possibly do to reflect real life trading and I announce my trades ahead of time... not 20/20 hindsight.

Thank you for your comment on this stock.... I am a long term hold/swing trader so we shall see how this plays out. I do expect a pullback though as it was last above the upper Bollinger band...that would not bother me long term.

Good Trading

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Well I would have gotten my bid for 5000 shares of COWN @$5.30 as you can see from the following intra-day chart





As I thought there was a pullback to $5.25 but this was after I would have bought it. We seem to be back to $5.30 so we shall cross our fingers for further gains.


As far as IDT goes the first minute of the day the price went to less than 21.00 but it was only for 100 shares or so so I will assume my holding did not sell over such a short spike.




good trading

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 grausch 
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Thanks for your comment.. and while I am a bit shaky when it comes to the American market, I certainly believe in my style of Technical Analysis as evidenced in my Canadian Journal.

Your comment is welcome and serves as a second thought but if I ignored the analysis that I presented in my previous post, I might as well stop trading all together.

Rarely have I seen such a bullish set of charts starting with the P&F chart which shows it breaching a resistance that has stood for 5 years... traders who know this stock realize this and should respond accordingly. As I mentioned thre is NOT ONE negative in the entire set of 4 charts. I know that most here do not believe in indicators....but I do when used properly .... I take a consensus as though all indicators can give misinformation but they do not do so at the same time... there is not a negative in this whole set of charts...the consensus is definitely BULLISH.

TA aside I also look at the FA side of things and this rise in share price is not some random event.

You may or may not believe in financial reports but I like to look for confirmations of events and the week old year end report (best financials you could lay your hands on) is very bullish in its lack of long term debt and increase of earnings per share over the last year.

I agree that a stock less than $10 in American stocks are iffy... I have commented on this in the past. I combed through about 100 such stocks and found only 4 worth looking at in depth and of those only this one stood out as being worth buying.

It sounds to me that the major objection you have is simply based on its share price. As I said in past posts I was surprised at how poor most American stocks in the $5-$10 performed compared to Canadian stocks. But this seems to be a cut above the majority of American stocks in this price range.

If I am wrong....sobeit... I cannot think this analysis will fail me after being so reliable in Canadian stocks. But this is a journal of trying things and this is a fantasy portfolio but done so in the closest way I can possibly do to reflect real life trading and I announce my trades ahead of time... not 20/20 hindsight.

Thank you for your comment on this stock.... I am a long term hold/swing trader so we shall see how this plays out. I do expect a pullback though as it was last above the upper Bollinger band...that would not bother me long term.

Good Trading

Not judging your choices, merely offering my views. Dan Zanger, Mark Minervini and William O'Neil all avoid cheaper stocks, which is why I do so as well. I also found that removing these stocks from my screens made my screens a bit more manageable. Thus, I know why these gentlemen avoid lower priced stocks, but I have never verified their observations since those stocks never make it into my screens.

In any case, as with IDT, it seems a little overextended. With the benefit of hindsight, there were two tops at 4.83 and 4.84. Had it been on my radar, and had I missed those points, I would have let it go.

Again, this is not a judgement nor a criticism, merely offering my views and I am definitely interested in seeing how your trades go. Especially seeing how the Force 100 performs over time. We both try and capture long-term moves, we just go about it slightly differently.

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grausch View Post
Not judging your choices, merely offering my views. Dan Zanger, Mark Minervini and William O'Neil all avoid cheaper stocks, which is why I do so as well. I also found that removing these stocks from my screens made my screens a bit more manageable. Thus, I know why these gentlemen avoid lower priced stocks, but I have never verified their observations since those stocks never make it into my screens.

In any case, as with IDT, it seems a little overextended. With the benefit of hindsight, there were two tops at 4.83 and 4.84. Had it been on my radar, and had I missed those points, I would have let it go.

Again, this is not a judgement nor a criticism, merely offering my views and I am definitely interested in seeing how your trades go. Especially seeing how the Force 100 performs over time. We both try and capture long-term moves, we just go about it slightly differently.

I never thought you were judging my trades

My style of TA is different from most and it has been in development for over 10 years and is still evolving. Yes, I am excited about the addition of Force 100 to my suite of indicators, replacing CMF that I found to be an iffy indicator.

If we have the same objective (long term moves) but slightly different approaches this is excellent. There is more than one way to skin the cat and if we both agree on a particular stock then that to me would be a good thing ... confirmations from diverse sources is always useful.

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  #68 (permalink)
 grausch 
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If we have the same objective (long term moves) but slightly different approaches this is excellent. There is more than one way to skin the cat and if we both agree on a particular stock then that to me would be a good thing ... confirmations from diverse sources is always useful.

I count William O'Neil, David Ryan and Mark Minervini as big influences in my style of trading / investing. Thus, heavily into CANSLIM, although I will use the earlier buy points that Mark shows in his book.

An example of a stock I own is GRUB - my screen flagged it because of strong sales and earnings increases & strong relative strength. I then manually reviewed it and liked the fact it is a recent IPO and was forming a cup type base at the time (Jan 2015). I wanted to buy it at 38.93 - 39.03 , but the stock gapped past and I only got it at an average price of 40.53 (scaling into it as the gap reversed). Unfortunately, I got stopped out a couple of days later at 37.64. And of course re-entered a couple of days later at 41.75 (pyramided into it for an average price of 42.93). Based on its back-story as well, there seems to be room for a lot of growth, so I think there is scope for a very large move.

Most of the stocks I own have similar traits as the above. I try and hold them for extended periods as I find that holding for the longer term negates some of my weaknesses, i.e. exiting prematurely and then seeing the stock double over the course of a year while my own account suffers numerous small losses due to overactive trading...

In any case, I do not wish to derail your thread further. Will continue watching your progress and pop in occasionally. Oh, and I very much doubt that you need confirmation from me...you seem to be doing just fine without it.

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grausch View Post

An example of a stock I own is GRUB - my screen flagged it because of strong sales and earnings increases & strong relative strength. I then manually reviewed it and liked the fact it is a recent IPO and was forming a cup type base at the time (Jan 2015). I wanted to buy it at 38.93 - 39.03 , but the stock gapped past and I only got it at an average price of 40.53 (scaling into it as the gap reversed). Unfortunately, I got stopped out a couple of days later at 37.64. And of course re-entered a couple of days later at 41.75 (pyramided into it for an average price of 42.93). Based on its back-story as well, there seems to be room for a lot of growth, so I think there is scope for a very large move.

In any case, I do not wish to derail your thread further. Will continue watching your progress and pop in occasionally. Oh, and I very much doubt that you need confirmation from me...you seem to be doing just fine without it.

Trust me... this type of discussion is NOT a derailment. I like to talk about individual stocks

Here is my TA on GRUB... I hope you don't mind....

Point & Figure chart (P&F)





this is an interesting stock and it certainly has been on a tear since Feb (small red 2 at bottom of the third X column from the right is first movement in FEB)... now with a triple top breakout it looks very nice.... The chart computer predicts (upper left) a price of $52.75 but I would not bet the farm on that ...yet.

It has a minor resistance on the horizon at $43.50 where it may stumble but eventually pass.... the serious resistance is higher up at $45.25.... this is an all-time high for this stock's short life and investors know this.... so passing this level would give you a good shot at that $52.75 prediction.... nice but as I said it has 2 reistances to pass on the way

Trigger Chart





this is not an easy chart to read as it is pretty volatile.

that first purple box shows a bearish sign but it is essentially a head fake . the Slo Sto and MACD looked fine declining for weeks and then the BBwidth broke positive which in this circumstance is a sell or short signal (I never short)...but look at the response of that BBwidth rise as well as the MACD / Slow Sto.... they reverse directions days later to kill that bear...

the Blue Box shows the gap you were talking about all three indicators are rising (a buy signal) but notice that the price is far above the upper BB.... one expects a pullback when you see this.

the pullback ends but the MACD and BBwidth resume rising... later followed by the Slow Sto... a bullish run

NOW in the green box is the current situation.... the price is in consolidation now... as such it may drop towards the 20daySMA (dotted green line) it looks fine so far as the MACD still climbs and the Slow Sto is pegged over 80.


Sentiment Chart

This is what I call my sentiment chart





this chart is reasonable bullish despite the entry into consolidation (though on plotting the closing price it does not look like consolidation at all)

lots of good stuff here

the RSI 30 has a nice positive slope since Feb... the Force100 has a positive slope as well.... in addition the DMI+/- is still expanding.... the Parabolic Sar shows lots of room between it and the price no concern there.

this is quite bullish.

Ichimoku chart





this chart could not be more bullish. The price is high above the clouds the thin blue line/thin red line are diverging bullishly... the On Bal Volume and CCI are flat out bullish

Conclusion

remember at the beginning I said the share price might stumble at $43.50... well looks like the end of this run will be there as we are in the start of consolidation. But the supporting charts are certainly bullish and I see no problem in passing that minor resistance.... with time

In consolidation the share price usually drifts to the 20daySMA as the bollies tighten. The next break out will probably happen 10 days from now as the BBwidth moves to 5 - 10

long term this looks fine so far.

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  #70 (permalink)
 grausch 
Luxembourg, Luxembourg
 
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@Underexposed - not going to quote your post as it will just clutter up the screen, but will respond to specific points.

Don't mind your TA on any stocks. I have my method and whether or not we agree does not really matter to me. No offence, but I found that if I can't stick to my own methods, then I am in trouble.

Not really too interested in the predictions. I can see the resistance at 43.50 and 45.80. We passed 43.50 after your post, but I really need 41.75 to hold. Other than that, if it reaches 52.75, I will still try to hold. That would only be a 22% gain, and I think this one has the potential to at least double. I could be wrong, but if this one doubles, it can pay for a lot of losers. Thus, I need to hold and give it the opportunity.

Regarding my first buy point - yes, I should have expected a pullback, but I did not want to miss the trade. Since this could be a big winner I entered at much to high a price. It also could have been a major runner from that point onwards. After missing some buy points and then paying too much, I made some modifications to my entry method which will allow for better entries in such circumstances. Basically taking smaller positions and then looking for alternate add-on points.

I also own the following stocks that I think still have a lot of upside to them:

HRTG - Pretty recent IPO. Strong earnings and sales and they seem to be accelerating rapidly. I bought it pretty well at 20.12, but it has not done much recently. However, that could change quickly.

INGN - Pretty recent IPO. Strong earning and sales growth although HRTG's is better. I missed the initial breakout at 32.64 and only bought it next day at 33.87. Not a good entry and makes sitting with it harder, but I will still give it the required room.

MLNX - This one is interesting. I bought it on 11 June 2012 as it broke out of a consolidation pattern. Was stopped out on 17 July 2012. Next day the stock bounced off its 50 day, and the day thereafter gapped up 41% on earnings. The day thereafter, it was featured on IBD and the "you should add if a stock bounces off its 50-day" was explained in detail. That event is one of the few times I can criticize IBD for their reporting. This one I bought at an average price of 47.47, but am not entirely happy with the base and the subsequent breakout, but it is still quite far from my stop.

NSAM - Pretty recent IPO. Strong earnings and sales growth as well. Bought it for an average price of 23.56 and don't like yesterday's action, but it is still far from my stop and has the potential to move big.

PANW - Not quite such a recent IPO, but still recent enough for me (I can see the IPO on the weekly chart on Marketsmith). Earning and sales growth still very impressive and next quarter's earnings estimate looks excellent. Has already moved a lot (almost up 4x from its roughly 40 low), but who knows, it may still double. I missed the initial breakout at 85.78, and only bought it at about 128 after it did a little consolidation. Have a breakeven stop so can't lose money on this anymore.

PAYC - Pretty recent IPO. Strong earnings and sales growth. I bought it pretty badly with an average price of 30.75. Really wanted it and was afraid it would get away from me. Had I bought correctly, I would be sitting with a breakeven stop right now. In any case, I will give it the required room and see what develops. This one can be a very big mover.

QLYS - Not quite such a recent IPO. Strong sales and earnings growth. I bought for an average price of 41.32. My stop is at breakeven and I can give this one room. The gap up on earnings surprised me as I did not really expect much at the time, but now I believe it can still put in a nice run.

TWTR - Pretty recent IPO. Strong sales and earnings growth. I know exactly why I bought this one, and it was a terrible trade. Should have someone headslap me just for this. Usually I have entries that are a little too late, but they are coming out of bases. This one had nothing going for it. In any case, the big gap up to 48 caught my attention. Volume was 400% above average, do I was really bullish and just wanted an opportunity to buy. It made a very short consolidation and then broke through 48.50 (the previous high). I bought at 48.88, but I really should have given this one more time to consolidate. It is still pretty far from my stop, so I can give some room. It may work out, but I never should have been in this trade.

VEEV - Pretty recent IPO. Ok sales and earnings growth and provides cloud-based services (big buzzword right now). It barely made the relative strength criteria, but it broke out of its base on strong volume. I struggled to get it at my but point so paid slightly higher (31.46). Hasn't stopped me out yet and looking like it has some upside. Perhaps it will surprise me, but I don't see this on being a major winner unless earning improve dramatically. It has earnings out today and I have no unrealised profit cushion so I may sell it before the close.

WERN - Old company. Ok earnings growth, but sales growth lower than I like. Recent base also not pretty, but it has shown a nice move up after being neglected for very long. It could be the beginning of a stage 2 move (Stan Weinstein for reference). However, I really don't think it will be a major winner. Bought mine for an average price of 32.08 and will keep it until I get a 25% gain or am stopped out. Earnings are almost 2 months out, so if I have no decent profit cushion by then, it will be sold.

As you can see from the above, there are several stocks that I own and think have the potential to move up a lot. I currently am a little overdiversified and definitely overexposed, but I had no problem finding strong growth stocks in the US. My screen currently has 113 stocks in it, but not many of these are setting up in bases. Unfortunately I missed several of the largest wins on this list because I took profits too early, but I have realised that weakness and am addressing it right now.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

it is 4:00am MST about 3 hours before the bell for Tuesday.

I have been working with an old scanning tool that I had forgotten about since it only does American stocks... not Canadian.

I discovered this stock that I think is a fine pick

Carriage Services Inc. [NYSE:CSV]

here are three charts

P&F




You can see that this stock has broken above a level that is over 10 years old and now is aimed at on about 14 years old. I see no resistances ahead of it until about $28.00

Trigger



As can be seen here the share price has been steadily increasing over the past 5 months and the green line shows the MACD/Slow Sto and BBwidth trigger that I use has activated

Sentiment



this is my sentiment chart and there is nothing bearish in this chart

As a result

At the Bell I will place a fantasy order for:

Limit Buy of 1000 shares of Carriage Services Inc. [CSV:NYSE] @ 23.44/share

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

well my order would have quickly filled @ $23.44... as you can see it rose fast to $23.70 but now has pulled back to $23.30 .... this to me is a normal pullback as we would have been high above the upper bollie.

here is the chart as it stands a few minutes ago




I believe it will rise as the days go by.


EDIT: (1.5 hours later)

Well we have already recovered and in the Black so far... not looking like a headfake now



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 Underexposed 
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grausch View Post

Don't mind your TA on any stocks. I have my method and whether or not we agree does not really matter to me. No offence, but I found that if I can't stick to my own methods, then I am in trouble.

I could not agree with you more... you dance with the girl you bring to the party I said the same to you after your first post.

However, I always like to look at another's TA when given the chance. My style of TA is pretty solid as I view it but I am amendable to change when I see something better come along. The addition of FORCE(100) indicator is a case in point. I have used CMF for many years now but have had a difficulty using it reliably. About 3 weeks ago I saw a discussion about the FORCE indicator and a short investigation convinced me that this was superior to what I was using and I changed.


grausch View Post

Not really too interested in the predictions. I can see the resistance at 43.50 and 45.80. We passed 43.50 after your post, but I really need 41.75 to hold. Other than that, if it reaches 52.75, I will still try to hold. That would only be a 22% gain, and I think this one has the potential to at least double. I could be wrong, but if this one doubles, it can pay for a lot of losers. Thus, I need to hold and give it the opportunity.

These are not necessarily predictions of the future but rather they are a gauge of potential trouble spots down the road. When assessing a new stock if I see several resistances ahead of the stock price the risk is not worth the reward and I will give the stock a miss. If it is a stock I own I will give it more attention as we approach this point.

I don't use stop losses a lot unless I see problems in a stock. I certainly do use stop losses when I decide that I will sell a stock as it gives the stock a chance to to a higher price and takes the emotion out of the sale.



grausch View Post
I also own the following stocks that I think still have a lot of upside to them:

I won't do a complete TA on any of these but I will comment of a couple that I like

HRTG is interesting as the Bollies are squeezing tight and it should break up or down in the very near future... looks good for a positive breakout to me.

TWTR I personally would not have bought this when you did but it is cruising through consolidation with a slight positive slope.... in another 5-7 days you should know the direction of the stock price

VEEV A very interesting stock.... it is not in breakout mode yet but it IS trending upward in a fairly tight channel... the bollies are tightening... it will show its true colors soon.

those are the stocks that interest me... the rest are fine for the most part but many are in consolidation and I don't like to buy during this time.... I look for breakout situations


grausch View Post
As you can see from the above, there are several stocks that I own and think have the potential to move up a lot. I currently am a little overdiversified and definitely overexposed, but I had no problem finding strong growth stocks in the US. My screen currently has 113 stocks in it, but not many of these are setting up in bases. Unfortunately I missed several of the largest wins on this list because I took profits too early, but I have realised that weakness and am addressing it right now.

Hahaha... yes buying is never a problem for me, though I am having a problem adjusting to the American market and have had no success there in the past. Selling is too emotional for me and that is why I have decided to use Limit stop-loss orders that eventually trip and sell the stock.... no emotion involved in the sale that way.

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  #74 (permalink)
 grausch 
Luxembourg, Luxembourg
 
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Underexposed View Post
HRTG is interesting as the Bollies are squeezing tight and it should break up or down in the very near future... looks good for a positive breakout to me.

TWTR I personally would not have bought this when you did but it is cruising through consolidation with a slight positive slope.... in another 5-7 days you should know the direction of the stock price

VEEV A very interesting stock.... it is not in breakout mode yet but it IS trending upward in a fairly tight channel... the bollies are tightening... it will show its true colors soon.

those are the stocks that interest me... the rest are fine for the most part but many are in consolidation and I don't like to buy during this time.... I look for breakout situations

HRTG has earnings out tomorrow after the close. I am carrying a very light position that is at break-even so I will hold this one into earnings. A big gap down will hurt, but not cause too much damage.

TWTR - Yeah that was a really stupid trade on my part. Can't believe I did that.

VEEV - Earnings coming out today after the close. I have sold off half the position and down about 1% on the entire trade. Will probably hold unless it collapses before the close.

I try to buy just as stocks are coming out of bases. Except for TWTR, all of the above were doing that when I bought, but subsequently several retreated back into the consolidation zone. I still keep them since I don't know whether it is just a temporary pullback. Based on the experience of others, the win % should be about 50%, although with me frequently exiting earlier mine is in the region of 35%. Holding through these pullbacks should get it to the 50% point.

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grausch View Post
HRTG has earnings out tomorrow after the close. I am carrying a very light position that is at break-even so I will hold this one into earnings. A big gap down will hurt, but not cause too much damage.

TWTR - Yeah that was a really stupid trade on my part. Can't believe I did that.

VEEV - Earnings coming out today after the close. I have sold off half the position and down about 1% on the entire trade. Will probably hold unless it collapses before the close.

I try to buy just as stocks are coming out of bases. Except for TWTR, all of the above were doing that when I bought, but subsequently several retreated back into the consolidation zone. I still keep them since I don't know whether it is just a temporary pullback. Based on the experience of others, the win % should be about 50%, although with me frequently exiting earlier mine is in the region of 35%. Holding through these pullbacks should get it to the 50% point.

Well I will watch HRTG tomorrow... I still have some coin left in my fantasy portfolio... if it does as I think it will and rise it will be a good buy,... not good-bye

The one I am concerned about in my portfolio here is IDT. It has been rising and falling like a drunken sailor.

CVS has performed as I had hoped...currently at $23.93 for a $0.49 gain

I resurrected an old scanner I used before but gave it up because it did not do Canadian Stocks. A fair bit of work but when you find on like this one it is worth it.

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 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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I am searching for more opportunity in American stocks:

the following are on my watchlist for breakouts in the near future in alphabetical order:


Armada Hoffler Properties [NYSE:AAH] last close $10.98/share

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc [NYSE:HRTG] last close $20.06/share

Investors Bancorp Inc [NASD:ISBC] last close $11.58/share

Wendy's Co. [NASD:WEN] last close $11.00/share


Not a buy yet but their decision time is close at hand.....

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 jackbravo 
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here's an interesting one, but it just broke out

szmk

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jackbravo View Post
here's an interesting one, but it just broke out

szmk

it is interesting but has not "just" broken out. The breakout started a month ago and here are a couple of charts




in the above chart you see the dramatic rise during the last month (the red 2 in the second "X" column from the right shows the start of February).

But right now it is headed on a collision course with a broad band of resistance the upper edge at $9.00 - $9.10 being the strongest point... within that band you see several bottom of "O" columns.





When you look at my trigger chart you see the BBWidth no longer rising...it looks to be arcing now... the MACD and Slow Sto look fine so far so I don't see a big drop ahead but I don't see a continuation of the rise being so easy and it could eventually turn around

However having said that the next chart is still bullish





Nothing wrong in any aspect of this chart at all.

So perhaps it has the steam to bulldoze through that band.... if it does it will be even stronger.

Conclusion:

It is interesting as you say but for a long term trader I would like to catch the beginning of a run rather the end of a run... and I would fear this resistance band personally. So .... for me it is a watch only

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 jackbravo 
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didn't realize it was already march. lol. yea, it looked like it broke out around feb9. i had it on my list, but my list has gotten so huge that I missed it right then.
thanks for the analysis.

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jackbravo View Post
didn't realize it was already march. lol. yea, it looked like it broke out around feb9. i had it on my list, but my list has gotten so huge that I missed it right then.
thanks for the analysis.

yeah... that is the problem with Watch lists...we keep on adding to them but not monitoring them.

I have been thinking about this problem and I feel much more comfortable with my the stocks in my expanding watch list of American stocks.... I like to catch them in their initial break out...not later. I have now screened out 8 stocks that are ripe for a major movement.

What I thought I would do is list them here and each day update their status as to breakout potential. I don't feel the necessity of looking for more stocks as these will fill my needs for now.

Ticker ... Cur Price .... Comments .......................................................................................... Status

HRTG ......... $19.94 ......... dead centre on 20daySMA... BBwidth very low, MACD is flat, .... any day now
........................................ very slight neg slope (not serious), Slow Sto has opposite.

AHH ........... $10.33 ......... A bit of a head fake today with loss of 1.37% today so far ....... Still possible but?
......................................... there is not a 100% direction to indicators yet.

WEN ........... $11.00 ......... the share price is hanging in there as bollies get tight, but ...... Doubtful now
......................................... see the decline of the Slo Sto and MACD??? Not good.

ISBC ........... $11.50 ......... Entering a BB tunnel, very tight, Slow Sto is bullish, MACD is .... Mixed messages
.......................................... bearish... could march down this tunnel for a while

RMBS ........... $12.39 ......... pretty nice, 200daySMA a support, above 20daySMA, MACD .... any day now
.......................................... MACD is flat, Slow Sto very bullish

EBSB ............ $12.60 ......... pretty nice, this could be the beginning of a breakout, MACD .. Began breakout?
........................................... is has flattened after a small decline, Slo Sto very bullish

BKEP .............. $7.52 ......... Marching up the upper bollie, mild breakout? MACD is flat ....... Breakout?
.......................................... with slight rise, Slo Sto bullish, BBwidth rising, worried about
.......................................... looming 200daySMA acting as a resistance.

PIP ................ $1.76 ......... bit of a gamble at such a low price but look like start of a ..... Breaking out now?
........................................... break out...all signs are there now except for BBwidth has
........................................... started to rise


there you have them...and I will update them daily. I still have money in the fantasy account and I am thinking about selling IDT as it is quite volatile without going anywhere.

The thumbnails below are the charts for the above stocks so you can see what I am talking about... too many to display in the text

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Well finally a small profit for this week... hopefully it will grow.... here is the status for the week to-date


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 grausch 
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Underexposed View Post

The one I am concerned about in my portfolio here is IDT. It has been rising and falling like a drunken sailor.

IDT had some big volume on the 02/27 reversal. Not looking pretty, but then again, who knows it may still rise. It will probably keep falling until you sell and then move up sharply...can't recall exactly how many times that has happened to me.

Something else that looks interesting and has been receiving some attention is ZOES.

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grausch View Post
IDT had some big volume on the 02/27 reversal. Not looking pretty, but then again, who knows it may still rise. It will probably keep falling until you sell and then move up sharply...can't recall exactly how many times that has happened to me.

Something else that looks interesting and has been receiving some attention is ZOES.

yes...it still may rise but frankly I like the other companies on my watch list better.





See how the Slo Sto and MACD have been in decline since Feb 17?.... Now the BBwidth is hinting at rising. This is the beginning of a sell signal.

Effective immediately @10:20MST I am raising my limit stop-loss range on IDT CORP from $20.90 - $20.99 to a new range of $21.24 - $21.29


it still gives it some wiggle room to rise higher though I doubt it will do so for long.

As far as ZOE'S Kitchen INC [NYSE:ZOES] goes... I find that your stock picks are a bit too late for me (no disrespect here meant)





By that I mean you seem to be coming in after a run is over and the stock is in consolidation as shown in the blue box.

The Slow Sto is still bullish... the MACD is completely neutral (flat) and the BBwidth has ended its rise with a slight neg slope.

From my experience, the share price usually gravitates to the 20daySMA (green dotted line). Right now it is moving sideways which is the best way to meet that SMA. If you see the MACD and SLOW Sto start to decline...it is ok as long as the BBWidth continues to fall... (Bollies getting tighter)

The time for the next jump is when the BBwidth gets down to a value of 10 or so for this stock. At this time the MACD and Slow Sto will have reversed its decline and have a positive slope ... then the BBwidth will rise to "trigger" the bullish run. (look at green circle)

IF the MACD and Slow Sto continue to decline when the BBwidth jumps positive... that is a sell (or perhaps a short... I don't short) signal.

Right now it is too unpredictable for me. If you look at those in my watch list...90% of those are in situations where the MACD and SLOW Sto are rising but the BBWidth is flat or slight neg slope. I want to catch that beginning of a bull run and ride that sucker.


EDIT: Well I set that Stop-loss for IDT quite tight and the order tripped about an hour after I made the above statement... So I sold these 500 shares of IDT at $21.29/share... Now I have money to make better choices from that watch list

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These are the comments from yesterday... I will make new comments for today (with 2 hours left in the trading day) on any significant changes


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Ticker ... Cur Price .... Comments .......................................................................................... Status

HRTG ......... $19.94 ......... dead centre on 20daySMA... BBwidth very low, MACD is flat, .... any day now
........................................ very slight neg slope (not serious), Slow Sto has opposite.

AHH ........... $10.33 ......... A bit of a head fake today with loss of 1.37% today so far ....... Still possible but?
......................................... there is not a 100% direction to indicators yet.

WEN ........... $11.00 ......... the share price is hanging in there as bollies get tight, but ...... Doubtful now
......................................... see the decline of the Slo Sto and MACD??? Not good.

ISBC ........... $11.50 ......... Entering a BB tunnel, very tight, Slow Sto is bullish, MACD is .... Mixed messages
.......................................... bearish... could march down this tunnel for a while

RMBS ........... $12.39 ......... pretty nice, 200daySMA a support, above 20daySMA, MACD .... any day now
.......................................... MACD is flat, Slow Sto very bullish

EBSB ............ $12.60 ......... pretty nice, this could be the beginning of a breakout, MACD .. Began breakout?
........................................... is has flattened after a small decline, Slo Sto very bullish

BKEP .............. $7.52 ......... Marching up the upper bollie, mild breakout? MACD is flat ....... Breakout?
.......................................... with slight rise, Slo Sto bullish, BBwidth rising, worried about
.......................................... looming 200daySMA acting as a resistance.

PIP ................ $1.76 ......... bit of a gamble at such a low price but look like start of a ..... Breaking out now?
........................................... break out...all signs are there now except for BBwidth has
........................................... started to rise


March 5 @ 12.18MST

Ticker ... Cur Price .... Comments .......................................................................................... Status

HRTG

Well I said "any day now" and that day is today... look at the chart below






You can see it gapped well over the upper Bollie... Now this stock has been flatlined so long there will be no pullback of significance to my mind. I just traded away my IDT stock and I don't think I could find a better place.

Here is an intra-day chart of today's action





I believe it will fall back slightly at the end

I will put in a Limit bid for 500 shares of [HRTG:NYSE] @ 21.25/share

I am stopping here in this post right now and will continue on in the next post.

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Well that was fun.... let us see how the others on that watchlist are doing


Quoting 
Ticker ... Cur Price .... Comments .......................................................................................... Status

AHH ........... $10.33 ......... A bit of a head fake today with loss of 1.37% today so far ....... Still possible but?
......................................... there is not a 100% direction to indicators yet.

WEN ........... $11.00 ......... the share price is hanging in there as bollies get tight, but ...... Doubtful now
......................................... see the decline of the Slo Sto and MACD??? Not good.

ISBC ........... $11.50 ......... Entering a BB tunnel, very tight, Slow Sto is bullish, MACD is .... Mixed messages
.......................................... bearish... could march down this tunnel for a while

RMBS ........... $12.39 ......... pretty nice, 200daySMA a support, above 20daySMA, MACD .... any day now
.......................................... MACD is flat, Slow Sto very bullish

EBSB ............ $12.60 ......... pretty nice, this could be the beginning of a breakout, MACD .. Began breakout?
........................................... is has flattened after a small decline, Slo Sto very bullish

BKEP .............. $7.52 ......... Marching up the upper bollie, mild breakout? MACD is flat ....... Breakout?
.......................................... with slight rise, Slo Sto bullish, BBwidth rising, worried about
.......................................... looming 200daySMA acting as a resistance.

PIP ................ $1.76 ......... bit of a gamble at such a low price but look like start of a ..... Breaking out now?
........................................... break out...all signs are there now except for BBwidth has
........................................... started to rise

Ticker ... Cur Price .... Comments .......................................................................................... Status

AHH ........... $10.65 ......... I made a mistake in the previous price it was $10.73 ......... Still possible but?
........................................ not $10.33. looking worse now, MACD and Slow Sto
........................................ have a neg slope... looks bearish now

AHH - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WEN ........... $11.00 ......... the share price still saying on same price but the decline ...... Doubtful now
......................................... of the Slo Sto and MACD increasing??? looks bearish

WEN - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ISBC ........... $11.56 ......... No change ... Entering BB tunnel could go any way right .... Mixed messages

ISBC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RMBS ........... $12.26 ......... No real change in chart.... looks very promising ..................................... any day now

RMBS - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EBSB ............ $12.58 ......... tried to break out..pulled back a bit, very good chance ...... Any day now
........................................... for a bullish break out...

EBSB - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANOTHER STOCK IN BREAKOUT...Confirmed

BKEP .............. $7.71 ......... tried for a huge gain but pulled back to upper bollie ....... Breakout confirmed!!
........................................... I am going to try for a purchase of 1000 shares


BKEP - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PIP ................ $1.77 ......... looks like the breakout is happening...just one resistance ..... Breaking out now?
........................................... on the horizon at 1.83 which it tested and fell back

PIP - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Conclusion

I will make a limit order for 1000 shares of Blue Knight Energy Partners [NYSE: BKEP] @ $7.70


I expect to get this today and will find out how much money I have left and probably use it to buy PIP if it breaks that resistance.

Wish list seems to be working

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  #86 (permalink)
 grausch 
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SE:ZOES] goes... I find that your stock picks are a bit too late for me (no disrespect here meant)


By that I mean you seem to be coming in after a run is over and the stock is in consolidation as shown in the blue box.

The Slow Sto is still bullish... the MACD is completely neutral (flat) and the BBwidth has ended its rise with a slight neg slope.

From my experience, the share price usually gravitates to the 20daySMA (green dotted line). Right now it is moving sideways which is the best way to meet that SMA. If you see the MACD and SLOW Sto start to decline...it is ok as long as the BBWidth continues to fall... (Bollies getting tighter)

The time for the next jump is when the BBwidth gets down to a value of 10 or so for this stock. At this time the MACD and Slow Sto will have reversed its decline and have a positive slope ... then the BBwidth will rise to "trigger" the bullish run. (look at green circle)

IF the MACD and Slow Sto continue to decline when the BBwidth jumps positive... that is a sell (or perhaps a short... I don't short) signal.

Right now it is too unpredictable for me. If you look at those in my watch list...90% of those are in situations where the MACD and SLOW Sto are rising but the BBWidth is flat or slight neg slope. I want to catch that beginning of a bull run and ride that sucker.


EDIT: Well I set that Stop-loss for IDT quite tight and the order tripped about an hour after I made the above statement... So I sold these 500 shares of IDT at $21.29/share... Now I have money to make better choices from that watch list

Quite funny how we try and accomplish the same but have two very different ways of interpreting what we see. If ZOES consolidates now and tightens up, I will become very interested. I would like another week (or more) of consolidation at least and I would like to see it gently drift down to the 20. If it can then break through a most recent high, I will start buying. I need a stock to show some RS before my scans pick them up, so I generally see them after a strong move and sometimes consolidations start and give me a chance to consider them.

The one downside of ZOES is that a lot of people are looking for the next CMG. Thus, with all the attention on it, it may be volatile and stop me out multiple times even if it is a big mover. Thus, I am still al little wary.

Regarding IDT, your entry seemed a little late for me (usually you seem to be earlier). My ideal buy point would have been at 20.53. I was very interested in IDT, but since I missed that point, I let it go. Still on my watchlist, but right now I am a little wary. If it can tighten up an consolidate above its 20 and 50 day, I may buy some if it breaks above 23 or 23.34 (depends on how it consolidates). I am also a little worried in that there is no real increase in quarterly sales. Sales seem flat and I really like to see that increase. Earnings out on 3/9, so that my change my view.

In any case, I just provided some names since you said you had difficulty identifying stocks in the US market and I generally need to trim my watchlist down significantly. However, right now it seems that you are finding several.

Maybe this is answered in your other journal, but how many stocks do you like to have in your portfolio? Also, what is your ideal exposure? It seems like the current portfolio is close to 100%, is that your usual exposure? How do you determine how much to allocate to a stock? I saw the IDT position is smaller, but I am not sure why.

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grausch View Post
Quite funny how we try and accomplish the same but have two very different ways of interpreting what we see. If ZOES consolidates now and tightens up, I will become very interested. I would like another week (or more) of consolidation at least and I would like to see it gently drift down to the 20. If it can then break through a most recent high, I will start buying. I need a stock to show some RS before my scans pick them up, so I generally see them after a strong move and sometimes consolidations start and give me a chance to consider them.

The one downside of ZOES is that a lot of people are looking for the next CMG. Thus, with all the attention on it, it may be volatile and stop me out multiple times even if it is a big mover. Thus, I am still al little wary.

Regarding IDT, your entry seemed a little late for me (usually you seem to be earlier). My ideal buy point would have been at 20.53. I was very interested in IDT, but since I missed that point, I let it go. Still on my watchlist, but right now I am a little wary. If it can tighten up an consolidate above its 20 and 50 day, I may buy some if it breaks above 23 or 23.34 (depends on how it consolidates). I am also a little worried in that there is no real increase in quarterly sales. Sales seem flat and I really like to see that increase. Earnings out on 3/9, so that my change my view.

In any case, I just provided some names since you said you had difficulty identifying stocks in the US market and I generally need to trim my watchlist down significantly. However, right now it seems that you are finding several.

Maybe this is answered in your other journal, but how many stocks do you like to have in your portfolio? Also, what is your ideal exposure? It seems like the current portfolio is close to 100%, is that your usual exposure? How do you determine how much to allocate to a stock? I saw the IDT position is smaller, but I am not sure why.

When I first started this journal I had a great difficulty finding suitable stocks and I chose IDT as part of this portfolio as it was the only other one at the time that looked half decent to me... it was not a good choice and is the reason I have bailed on it. here.

I resurrected an old screener I used to play with years ago to find the current stocks in the watch list in this journal and these are more typical of stocks that interest to me.

As far as ZOES goes, you did not say WHY the stock was of interest to you and what would be a buy situation for you. It seemed with SZMK and ZOES you were looking at stocks at or near the end of a bullish run and entering or had entered a consolidation period... Stocks of this type are very unpredictable as a new BUY and the only thing consistent I have found is that they tend to gravitate to their 20daySMA until the bollies get tight and are ready for another major movement... I am not interested in such stocks as new buys as there are too many in that situation to watch.... I tend to focus on those that are days away from a major movement potentially as defined by approaching a Bollie squeeze (indicated by a minimum BBwidth)... then I can catch them very close to their breakout.

I will monitor and keep these stocks through a consolation though if I like the stock and its other charts that I use.

These fantasy journals reflect my real holdings very much. These fantasy ones on this site at about $100,000 starter points are much smaller than my real portfolios. I live off of the gains from my portfolios in real life. Other than two small government pensions which basically cover rent... I have NO other income.

You cannot live on the gains of a $100,000 or $200,000 (2 fantasy portfolios) and increase your holdings. Typically I make something like 10-15% on my real portfolios AFTER subtracting out my living expenses. Could you live on $10,000 - $15,000 /year??.... even double that for 2 portfolios....if you could then you could never increase your holdings as you would be spending every nickel your holdings generated and heaven help you in a bad year.

So these portfolios on this website are simply demonstrations that money can be made as a long term trader of which there doesn't seem to be many (visible ones anyway) on this website.

What you see IS very typical of how I manage my real portfolios. I do not use hind sight on this website and announce my potential transactions usually the day before ...if not then I state the time of day that I make my post on decisions when I make a quick decision to buy/sell. This is as real as I can make it.

The number of shares I initially purchase varies with the cost of the stock and how confident I am of its future. I generally want 1000 shares at least in any stock I own.... you make decent coin on 1000 shares... on stocks worth less that $5/share (Canadian stocks have many good ones in this range... difficult to find good ones in American stocks) I will buy 2,000 to 5,000 as an initial buy... in the $5-$20 range I will buy 1000 - 3000 as an initial buy, if they are higher than $20 I will buy 500 - 1000 shares. I never buy less than 500 shares of anything However, if things are very bullish and cash is available I would on higher priced stocks add 100 -200 shares as the stock rises.

I am usually fully invested in any portfolio I really own, though given the weird market of late in reality I am only 50-70% invested now. I collect and withdraw living expenses as needed from sales of any stock and/or dividends generated ( I love high dividend paying Canadian stocks).

I don't have any real interest in discussing my real holdings in this journal or my Canadian Journal. It is not the point of my writing here. I want to demonstrate that the investing world is not simply day trading so I take a reasonable amount of money ($100,000) and show that one can create and grow a long term portfolio. I have a different type of TA that I use and to me it is not a secret that I hide. Most new traders and some older ones don't use TA or use it properly IMHO. It took me 20 years of study to get to where I am today and as you can see recently, I am not above making changes when I learn something better (adding Force(100) is an example of that).

Please do not harp on what I do in reality.... I had that happen to me in my other journal and he would not stop so he is on ignore.

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  #88 (permalink)
 Underexposed 
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014

this is just an update on two stocks that I put bids on late in the day yesterday with about about 2 hours before closing


Quoting 
I believe it will fall back slightly at the end

I will put in a Limit bid for 500 shares of [HRTG:NYSE] @ 21.25/share

here is an intraday chart for Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. [NYSE:HRTG]





As you can see in the circle the price fell below this mark for most of the last 2 hours so I would have gotten my Bid... and now it has taken off nicely.


Quoting 
I will make a limit order for 1000 shares of Blue Knight Energy Partners [NYSE: BKEP] @ $7.70

I expect to get this today and will find out how much money I have left and probably use it to buy PIP if it breaks that resistance.

here is an intraday chart for Blueknight Energy Partners G.P. LLC [NASDQ:BEKP]





This stock as well, as you can see in the circle had a share price fell below this mark for most of the last 2 hours so I would have gotten my Bid... and now it has taken off nicely as well.

As far as a decision on PIP goes that is still on-going as it shows no sign of breaking out yet as of 9:10MST.

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  #89 (permalink)
 grausch 
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As far as ZOES goes, you did not say WHY the stock was of interest to you and what would be a buy situation for you. It seemed with SZMK and ZOES you were looking at stocks at or near the end of a bullish run and entering or had entered a consolidation period... Stocks of this type are very unpredictable as a new BUY and the only thing consistent I have found is that they tend to gravitate to their 20daySMA until the bollies get tight and are ready for another major movement... I am not interested in such stocks as new buys as there are too many in that situation to watch.... I tend to focus on those that are days away from a major movement potentially as defined by approaching a Bollie squeeze (indicated by a minimum BBwidth)... then I can catch them very close to their breakout.

I will monitor and keep these stocks through a consolation though if I like the stock and its other charts that I use.

Yeah, I understand I should have mentioned a little bit more on ZOES. I try to say as little as possible in order not to interfere with your trading, since this is your journal as as mentioned before, it looks poised to do quite well. SZMK was not my suggestion - it breaks so many of my requirements that I would not touch it with a 10-foot pole.


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These fantasy journals reflect my real holdings very much. These fantasy ones on this site at about $100,000 starter points are much smaller than my real portfolios. I live off of the gains from my portfolios in real life. Other than two small government pensions which basically cover rent... I have NO other income.

You cannot live on the gains of a $100,000 or $200,000 (2 fantasy portfolios) and increase your holdings. Typically I make something like 10-15% on my real portfolios AFTER subtracting out my living expenses. Could you live on $10,000 - $15,000 /year??.... even double that for 2 portfolios....if you could then you could never increase your holdings as you would be spending every nickel your holdings generated and heaven help you in a bad year.

So these portfolios on this website are simply demonstrations that money can be made as a long term trader of which there doesn't seem to be many (visible ones anyway) on this website.

What you see IS very typical of how I manage my real portfolios. I do not use hind sight on this sight and announce usually the day before ...if not then I state the time of day that I make my post on decisions when I make a quick decision to buy/sell. This is as real as I can make it.

One of the things that attracted me was the "long term" added to your journal name. In my experience, shorter term trading opens up so many pitfalls that can be avoided by holding longer term. Thus, very much in favour of longer term trading and can say that in my case it has helped reduce needless losses significantly.

Thank you for sharing the information on your capital growth. While I have no clue about your living expenses, I doubt most daytraders make 10%-15% per annum before expenses (with the exception of probably a handful of traders). Those returns are excellent and definitely provide motivation for me to grow my capital base (still working but tend to not save as much as I could). If most traders would just deposit 10% of their salaries and adopt a longer term approach combined with cutting losses, I believe the failure rate of 95% would go down significantly.


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The number of shares I initially purchase varies with the cost of the stock and how confident I am of its future. generally want 1000 shares at least in any stock I own.... you make decent coin on 1000 shares... on stocks worth less that $5/share (Canadian stocks have many good ones in this range... difficult to find good ones in American stocks) I will buy 2,000 to 5,000 as an initial buy... in the $5-$20 range I will buy 1000 - 3000 as an initial buy, if they are higher than $20 I will buy 500 - 1000 shares. I never buy less than 500 shares of anything However, if things are very bullish and cash is available I would on higher priced stocks add 100 -200 as the stock rises.

I am usually fully invested in any portfolio I really own, though given the weird market of late in reality I am only 50-70% invested now. I collect and withdraw living expenses as needed from sales of any stock and/or dividends generated ( I love high dividend paying Canadian stocks).

I don't have any real interest in discussing my real holdings in this journal or my Canadian Journal. It is not the point of my writing here. I want to demonstrate that the investing world is not simply day trading so I take a reasonable amount of money ($100,000) and show that one can create and grow a long term portfolio. I have a different type of TA that I use and to me it is not a secret that I hide. Most new traders and some older ones don't use TA or use it properly IMHO. It took me 20 years of study to get to where I am today and as you can see recently, I am not above making changes when I learn something better (adding Force(100) is an example of that).

Thank you for describing how you decide on the sizing of your buys. I suspected as much, but just wanted to confirm whether you have a mechanical way of making these decisions. It seems that successful traders all have some discretion built into their trading and never completely rely on mechanical triggers.

The other thing that attracted me to this journal was your chosen name - Underexposed. Most traders here would definitely not be underexposed. I have seen some excellent results from a trader with very low exposure (25%-50% on average) who might ramp it up to 100% exposure once or twice a year. This lead to some extremely low drawdowns on the account while still beating the markets substantially, and I still try to incorporate that into my trading.

Regarding your real holdings, no need to discuss those. I am merely interested in following your journal and seeing the results unfold over time. Regarding your TA, it is what works for you and I have already learnt something. As said before, we have the same approach (long term hold but with stop-losses) and yet we both see things completely differently. Neither way is right nor wrong, they are just different.

In any case, I hope both your real-life holdings and journals do well. With your new resurrected screen you have quite a few ideas and I doubt you needed much help in me pointing out potential buys. So might go back to monitoring my own portfolio for a while.

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  #90 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
Regarding your real holdings, no need to discuss those. I am merely interested in following your journal and seeing the results unfold over time. Regarding your TA, it is what works for you and I have already learnt something. As said before, we have the same approach (long term hold but with stop-losses) and yet we both see things completely differently. Neither way is right nor wrong, they are just different.

In any case, I hope both your real-life holdings and journals do well. With your new resurrected screen you have quite a few ideas and I doubt you needed much help in me pointing out potential buys. So might go back to monitoring my own portfolio for a while.

There are more than one way to do TA... that is why I do like to see how others do theirs so that I can cherry pick what I like and add it to the way I do things...hence the addition of FORCE(100) which found discussed here somewhere and decided to investigate it more...I am still learning how to use it more effectively but already it seems better than CMF.

we do have different approaches but I do like to discuss stocks from my perspective and that can be useful.

Every Thursday evening my brother and I discuss stocks for 3 hours on skype. He at first (3 years ago) did not think much about TA in general. He is a digger of hard news (not market fluff). Over time I have won him over, though he still refuses to learn TA... but that is a good thing... during our 3 hour sessions he presents his picks for the week and asks me to "cast my bones" over them

I have "stolen" many good stocks from his picks. We review what I see and I listen to what he has to say and our consensus on a stock is usually excellent.... two opposing methods combine for great results often as not.

So don't feel that I don't want to discuss stocks....I do ... however, when you do (or any other person who wishes to do so) tell me what attracts that stock to your attention. If you leave it to my imagination I am often wrong in my views of why you would choose a pick but if you say why you like it I may see something I would have missed and gained an insight I never had before.

That is how it works with my brother and I anyway.

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Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
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Well.... the dust has settled and I am 90% settled into this portfolio... I still have $12, 000 and change in cash and this will be used for one more stock from that watchlist.

I am now happy with the portfolio as it now stands...we shall see how it performs now.


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What a contrast to the Canadian version of my journal!!!

this is directly the result of the two economies/markets... The Canadian markets are in a down turn much more than that of the USA. This could change again but I think I am on the right track now... we are finally in the Black





We have minor negative returns on Blue Knight and Cowen group ... nothing serious though

Look at our long term hold on Radiant Logistics a gain of 6% since Friday... I raised the stop loss on it and am tempted to remove it all together as I don't see much of a chance of it plunging.... though the stock price IS above the upper BB so a pullback is expected... hopefully it will re-enter the BB envelope sideways.

looking forward to what Friday brings next

Good trading

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well... you would think I know what I am doing in the American market now....

The second week of positive return and a solid footprint in the Black now as shown in this summary





we lost a tiny bit of ground in the last 2 days due to a drop in Radiant Logistics... but it is still performing well and more to the point the other stocks are pulling up their socks.

no changes anticipated at present.

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 grausch 
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we lost a tiny bit of ground in the last 2 days due to a drop in Radiant Logistics... but it is still performing well and more to the point the other stocks are pulling up their socks.

RLGT is holding up quite nicely right now...if it can stay above 5, there may be a lot of potential. It would not have been in my stock screen due to the low price, but I must say, I like the fact that I can see all the horizontal consolidations forming...almost like stairs going upwards. This is exactly the type of action Darvas used to like.

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grausch View Post
RLGT is holding up quite nicely right now...if it can stay above 5, there may be a lot of potential. It would not have been in my stock screen due to the low price, but I must say, I like the fact that I can see all the horizontal consolidations forming...almost like stairs going upwards. This is exactly the type of action Darvas used to like.

well I do not have a bias against $1 - $5 stocks especially in the Canadian market place. I am more cautious in the American markets as I stumbled a lot when I first started this journal.

I have no idea about Darvas and his likeable action.... this stock grabbed my attention through its chart as well as it had good fundamentals.

here are two charts right now for this stock



If you look at the circle at the top right... the share price went above the upper BB....as normal it re-entered the BB envelop in a couple of days... looking at the lower 2 indicators you see the MACD and BBwidth did not reverse direction.... it takes all three indicators to reverse direction to say the end ended.

we have begun the breakout for further gains




This is a bullish chart and confirms this stock still has legs... all three indicators are positive... no bears to be found right now.

More positive days to this run

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  #96 (permalink)
 grausch 
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Nicolas Darvas was a dancer who traded in stocks while traveling the world. You can get more details here: Nicolas Darvas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

One of the books he wrote, "How I Made Two Million Dollars in the Stock Market" is quite an entertaining read, but also has several nuggets of wisdom. If you haven't read it, I would highly recommend it.

He pioneered what are called Darvas boxes, namely sideways consolidations that stair-step higher. RLGT is exhibiting those same characteristics. Some of the better stocks tend to exhibit those same characteristics during the initial stages of big bull runs. If it can continue this progression it could become a really large winner.

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grausch View Post
Nicolas Darvas was a dancer who traded in stocks while traveling the world. You can get more details here: Nicolas Darvas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

One of the books he wrote, "How I Made Two Million Dollars in the Stock Market" is quite an entertaining read, but also has several nuggets of wisdom. If you haven't read it, I would highly recommend it.

He pioneered what are called Darvas boxes, namely sideways consolidations that stair-step higher. RLGT is exhibiting those same characteristics. Some of the better stocks tend to exhibit those same characteristics during the initial stages of big bull runs. If it can continue this progression it could become a really large winner.

I took a look at a site that talked about these boxes and here is where they discuss charts with the boxes

Darvas Box Theory - Darvas Box Theory Explained: Example Charts

Now this is not the original author's discussion but here is another web poster's discussion





I was curious so I plotted my "trigger chart" for the same period of time for Guess Jeans [GES] underneath.

The thing that bothered me about these boxes is that there were no mention as to how they were formed... they seem to be rather random heights and widths and seem to be just resistance/support channels made into a box ... though I think volume enters into the equation somewhere.

I drew the lines that show buy/sell signals... I would not have been fooled in that first box as clearly the Slo Sto and MACD are declining as the BBwidth rose... a clear sell signal....I also think I was a step ahead on the breakouts though the gapping situations happen so fast I doubt anyone could predict them.

An interesting chart but I see nothing that I could not predict with my "trigger Chart"....

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  #98 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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The thing that bothered me about these boxes is that there were no mention as to how they were formed... they seem to be rather random heights and widths and seem to be just resistance/support channels made into a box ... though I think volume enters into the equation somewhere.

I read the original Darvas book many, many years ago.

What he actually did was simply observe when a stock was in a range and then broke out. He did this by just observing the stock quotes, not even charting. As I recall, he had his broker telegraph the quotes to him wherever he was in the world as he traveled for his dancing career. The ranges are what he called "boxes," but ranges is what they were.

I have since seen, fairly recently, "Darvas Boxes" being offered as an indicator. I don't know if any of the implementations actually square very well with the Darvas approach, which was quite informal and not an indicator.

As I recall, at least, it was really all about the fact that stocks tend to rest in pullbacks or ranges before moving ahead. Hence the idea of "boxes." If you see a stock basically doing a stair-step type trend, that's what he was talking about. There really was no rule about how to form them, other than observing support and resistance, exactly as you said. I don't recall if he also looked at volume, but if he did, it would have also been very informally.

Darvas also benefited from trading during a roaring bull market.

I have a soft spot for Darvas, because he was the first person who gave me an idea that you could approach the stock market in a systematic way that could make you money. He was basically just trend following, by observing moves over previous highs. It was not revolutionary, even for the time (50's or 60's, I think), but you do see this behavior in most trends that are not just straight up. Look at it as a description of a trend with pullbacks and ranges and you've got it.

Just a little ancient historical info....

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
I read the original Darvas book many, many years ago.

What he actually did was simply observe when a stock was in a range and then broke out. He did this by just observing the stock quotes, not even charting. As I recall, he had his broker telegraph the quotes to him wherever he was in the world as he traveled for his dancing career. The ranges are what he called "boxes," but ranges is what they were.

I have since seen, fairly recently, "Darvas Boxes" being offered as an indicator. I don't know if any of the implementations actually square very well with the Darvas approach, which was quite informal and not an indicator.

yes, As I mentioned above I did not see any rational to the boxes. But there was not much real TA in the 1920's other than P&F and barcharts which were certainly around back then but not performed on every stock in newspaper financial pages or supplied by a full service broker I imagine.

If you read my Canadian Journal (now approaching "novella" status ... I mentioned how I got my start in TA back in the 1980's when I would follow 100 tickers in P&F charts updated personally every Saturday afternoon and being fascinated by the concept of support/resistance lines as they revealed themselves.

While it is interesting historically and the thought processes of these players back then are interesting, the advent of the TA explosion in the 1960's to present make TA much more systemic.

I am sure Darvas would be fascinated by Bollinger Band squeezes which as I have shown correspond to the end of those boxes... My "Trigger Chart" enhances the the reliability of those signals as I have shown. As I see this method it is basically a resistance/support channeling application....the so called "stepping" is only a result of the bullish nature of the stock... I see the same stairs in my charts

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 grausch 
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I am sure Darvas would be fascinated by Bollinger Band squeezes which as I have shown correspond to the end of those boxes... My "Trigger Chart" enhances the the reliability of those signals as I have shown. As I see this method it is basically a resistance/support channeling application....the so called "stepping" is only a result of the bullish nature of the stock... I see the same stairs in my charts

Agree that Darvas would be fascinated. The Bollinger Band squeezes tend to be during periods of low volatility or sideways movement. While I don't think he implicitly stated it, boxes with smaller resistance / support zones, i.e. smaller consolidations, allow for larger reward to risk trades. That is one of the tools in my toolbox.

I have not used the Darvas boxes indicator, all I generally do is eyeball stocks and if they exhibit the stair-step behaviour, then I am still happy to keep the position. All it is for me is an indication that the stock is still acting strongly. Also, I do not believe just using Darvas boxes is such a sound strategy. When I first backtested them results were pretty dismal. In a roaring bull market things may work better, but I find that nowadays there are a lot of false breakouts.

What made Darvas successful was that he found the market leaders, used stops to get him out of losing positions, held onto his winners, had a very concentrated portfolio and avoided excessive trading. He also had quite a lot of luck with one of his stock positions that was converted into rights. Since he bought more rights, had that position imploded we would never have heard of him.

Even though his book may be a little outdated, I love his writing style and I still found some things that influenced my trading positively.

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