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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)
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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)

  #71 (permalink)
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it is 4:00am MST about 3 hours before the bell for Tuesday.

I have been working with an old scanning tool that I had forgotten about since it only does American stocks... not Canadian.

I discovered this stock that I think is a fine pick

Carriage Services Inc. [NYSE:CSV]

here are three charts

P&F

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You can see that this stock has broken above a level that is over 10 years old and now is aimed at on about 14 years old. I see no resistances ahead of it until about $28.00

Trigger

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As can be seen here the share price has been steadily increasing over the past 5 months and the green line shows the MACD/Slow Sto and BBwidth trigger that I use has activated

Sentiment

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this is my sentiment chart and there is nothing bearish in this chart

As a result

At the Bell I will place a fantasy order for:

Limit Buy of 1000 shares of Carriage Services Inc. [CSV:NYSE] @ 23.44/share


Last edited by Underexposed; March 3rd, 2015 at 11:10 AM. Reason: corrected the stock ticker from "CVS" to "CSV" ... I have a bad habit of reversing numbers and letters
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  #72 (permalink)
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well my order would have quickly filled @ $23.44... as you can see it rose fast to $23.70 but now has pulled back to $23.30 .... this to me is a normal pullback as we would have been high above the upper bollie.

here is the chart as it stands a few minutes ago

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I believe it will rise as the days go by.


EDIT: (1.5 hours later)

Well we have already recovered and in the Black so far... not looking like a headfake now


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Last edited by Underexposed; March 3rd, 2015 at 12:26 PM.
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  #73 (permalink)
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grausch View Post

Don't mind your TA on any stocks. I have my method and whether or not we agree does not really matter to me. No offence, but I found that if I can't stick to my own methods, then I am in trouble.

I could not agree with you more... you dance with the girl you bring to the party I said the same to you after your first post.

However, I always like to look at another's TA when given the chance. My style of TA is pretty solid as I view it but I am amendable to change when I see something better come along. The addition of FORCE(100) indicator is a case in point. I have used CMF for many years now but have had a difficulty using it reliably. About 3 weeks ago I saw a discussion about the FORCE indicator and a short investigation convinced me that this was superior to what I was using and I changed.


grausch View Post

Not really too interested in the predictions. I can see the resistance at 43.50 and 45.80. We passed 43.50 after your post, but I really need 41.75 to hold. Other than that, if it reaches 52.75, I will still try to hold. That would only be a 22% gain, and I think this one has the potential to at least double. I could be wrong, but if this one doubles, it can pay for a lot of losers. Thus, I need to hold and give it the opportunity.

These are not necessarily predictions of the future but rather they are a gauge of potential trouble spots down the road. When assessing a new stock if I see several resistances ahead of the stock price the risk is not worth the reward and I will give the stock a miss. If it is a stock I own I will give it more attention as we approach this point.

I don't use stop losses a lot unless I see problems in a stock. I certainly do use stop losses when I decide that I will sell a stock as it gives the stock a chance to to a higher price and takes the emotion out of the sale.



grausch View Post
I also own the following stocks that I think still have a lot of upside to them:

I won't do a complete TA on any of these but I will comment of a couple that I like

HRTG is interesting as the Bollies are squeezing tight and it should break up or down in the very near future... looks good for a positive breakout to me.

TWTR I personally would not have bought this when you did but it is cruising through consolidation with a slight positive slope.... in another 5-7 days you should know the direction of the stock price

VEEV A very interesting stock.... it is not in breakout mode yet but it IS trending upward in a fairly tight channel... the bollies are tightening... it will show its true colors soon.

those are the stocks that interest me... the rest are fine for the most part but many are in consolidation and I don't like to buy during this time.... I look for breakout situations


grausch View Post
As you can see from the above, there are several stocks that I own and think have the potential to move up a lot. I currently am a little overdiversified and definitely overexposed, but I had no problem finding strong growth stocks in the US. My screen currently has 113 stocks in it, but not many of these are setting up in bases. Unfortunately I missed several of the largest wins on this list because I took profits too early, but I have realised that weakness and am addressing it right now.

Hahaha... yes buying is never a problem for me, though I am having a problem adjusting to the American market and have had no success there in the past. Selling is too emotional for me and that is why I have decided to use Limit stop-loss orders that eventually trip and sell the stock.... no emotion involved in the sale that way.

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  #74 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
HRTG is interesting as the Bollies are squeezing tight and it should break up or down in the very near future... looks good for a positive breakout to me.

TWTR I personally would not have bought this when you did but it is cruising through consolidation with a slight positive slope.... in another 5-7 days you should know the direction of the stock price

VEEV A very interesting stock.... it is not in breakout mode yet but it IS trending upward in a fairly tight channel... the bollies are tightening... it will show its true colors soon.

those are the stocks that interest me... the rest are fine for the most part but many are in consolidation and I don't like to buy during this time.... I look for breakout situations

HRTG has earnings out tomorrow after the close. I am carrying a very light position that is at break-even so I will hold this one into earnings. A big gap down will hurt, but not cause too much damage.

TWTR - Yeah that was a really stupid trade on my part. Can't believe I did that.

VEEV - Earnings coming out today after the close. I have sold off half the position and down about 1% on the entire trade. Will probably hold unless it collapses before the close.

I try to buy just as stocks are coming out of bases. Except for TWTR, all of the above were doing that when I bought, but subsequently several retreated back into the consolidation zone. I still keep them since I don't know whether it is just a temporary pullback. Based on the experience of others, the win % should be about 50%, although with me frequently exiting earlier mine is in the region of 35%. Holding through these pullbacks should get it to the 50% point.

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  #75 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
HRTG has earnings out tomorrow after the close. I am carrying a very light position that is at break-even so I will hold this one into earnings. A big gap down will hurt, but not cause too much damage.

TWTR - Yeah that was a really stupid trade on my part. Can't believe I did that.

VEEV - Earnings coming out today after the close. I have sold off half the position and down about 1% on the entire trade. Will probably hold unless it collapses before the close.

I try to buy just as stocks are coming out of bases. Except for TWTR, all of the above were doing that when I bought, but subsequently several retreated back into the consolidation zone. I still keep them since I don't know whether it is just a temporary pullback. Based on the experience of others, the win % should be about 50%, although with me frequently exiting earlier mine is in the region of 35%. Holding through these pullbacks should get it to the 50% point.

Well I will watch HRTG tomorrow... I still have some coin left in my fantasy portfolio... if it does as I think it will and rise it will be a good buy,... not good-bye

The one I am concerned about in my portfolio here is IDT. It has been rising and falling like a drunken sailor.

CVS has performed as I had hoped...currently at $23.93 for a $0.49 gain

I resurrected an old scanner I used before but gave it up because it did not do Canadian Stocks. A fair bit of work but when you find on like this one it is worth it.

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  #76 (permalink)
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I am searching for more opportunity in American stocks:

the following are on my watchlist for breakouts in the near future in alphabetical order:


Armada Hoffler Properties [NYSE:AAH] last close $10.98/share

Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc [NYSE:HRTG] last close $20.06/share

Investors Bancorp Inc [NASD:ISBC] last close $11.58/share

Wendy's Co. [NASD:WEN] last close $11.00/share


Not a buy yet but their decision time is close at hand.....

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  #77 (permalink)
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here's an interesting one, but it just broke out

szmk

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  #78 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
here's an interesting one, but it just broke out

szmk

it is interesting but has not "just" broken out. The breakout started a month ago and here are a couple of charts


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in the above chart you see the dramatic rise during the last month (the red 2 in the second "X" column from the right shows the start of February).

But right now it is headed on a collision course with a broad band of resistance the upper edge at $9.00 - $9.10 being the strongest point... within that band you see several bottom of "O" columns.


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When you look at my trigger chart you see the BBWidth no longer rising...it looks to be arcing now... the MACD and Slow Sto look fine so far so I don't see a big drop ahead but I don't see a continuation of the rise being so easy and it could eventually turn around

However having said that the next chart is still bullish


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Nothing wrong in any aspect of this chart at all.

So perhaps it has the steam to bulldoze through that band.... if it does it will be even stronger.

Conclusion:

It is interesting as you say but for a long term trader I would like to catch the beginning of a run rather the end of a run... and I would fear this resistance band personally. So .... for me it is a watch only

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  #79 (permalink)
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didn't realize it was already march. lol. yea, it looked like it broke out around feb9. i had it on my list, but my list has gotten so huge that I missed it right then.
thanks for the analysis.

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  #80 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
didn't realize it was already march. lol. yea, it looked like it broke out around feb9. i had it on my list, but my list has gotten so huge that I missed it right then.
thanks for the analysis.

yeah... that is the problem with Watch lists...we keep on adding to them but not monitoring them.

I have been thinking about this problem and I feel much more comfortable with my the stocks in my expanding watch list of American stocks.... I like to catch them in their initial break out...not later. I have now screened out 8 stocks that are ripe for a major movement.

What I thought I would do is list them here and each day update their status as to breakout potential. I don't feel the necessity of looking for more stocks as these will fill my needs for now.

Ticker ... Cur Price .... Comments .......................................................................................... Status

HRTG ......... $19.94 ......... dead centre on 20daySMA... BBwidth very low, MACD is flat, .... any day now
........................................ very slight neg slope (not serious), Slow Sto has opposite.

AHH ........... $10.33 ......... A bit of a head fake today with loss of 1.37% today so far ....... Still possible but?
......................................... there is not a 100% direction to indicators yet.

WEN ........... $11.00 ......... the share price is hanging in there as bollies get tight, but ...... Doubtful now
......................................... see the decline of the Slo Sto and MACD??? Not good.

ISBC ........... $11.50 ......... Entering a BB tunnel, very tight, Slow Sto is bullish, MACD is .... Mixed messages
.......................................... bearish... could march down this tunnel for a while

RMBS ........... $12.39 ......... pretty nice, 200daySMA a support, above 20daySMA, MACD .... any day now
.......................................... MACD is flat, Slow Sto very bullish

EBSB ............ $12.60 ......... pretty nice, this could be the beginning of a breakout, MACD .. Began breakout?
........................................... is has flattened after a small decline, Slo Sto very bullish

BKEP .............. $7.52 ......... Marching up the upper bollie, mild breakout? MACD is flat ....... Breakout?
.......................................... with slight rise, Slo Sto bullish, BBwidth rising, worried about
.......................................... looming 200daySMA acting as a resistance.

PIP ................ $1.76 ......... bit of a gamble at such a low price but look like start of a ..... Breaking out now?
........................................... break out...all signs are there now except for BBwidth has
........................................... started to rise


there you have them...and I will update them daily. I still have money in the fantasy account and I am thinking about selling IDT as it is quite volatile without going anywhere.

The thumbnails below are the charts for the above stocks so you can see what I am talking about... too many to display in the text

Attached Thumbnails
Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)-hrtg.png   Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)-ahh.png   Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)-wen.png   Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)-isbc.png   Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)-rmbs.png   Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)-ebsb.png   Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)-bkep.png   Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)-pip.png  
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