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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)
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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)

  #61 (permalink)
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well 4 days of neglect and still treading water


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IDT fell hard after buying.... the limit stop loss is in place and was almost tripped ... my success rate on American stocks Sucks big time so-far

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  #62 (permalink)
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ok...tomorrow I hope that IDT Corp recovers and does not trip the limit Stop-loss.

I did a search today and think I have come up with a winner.

Cowen Group Inc. [Nasdaq:COWN]

Here are the charts that grabbed my attention


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It has taken over 5 years to reach this point and has been solidly on the move since 2013. The stock has breached an all time high and if you believe the computer analysis (and I usually take these guesses with a grain of salt) we are headed for $7.10 eventually.


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This is my trigger chart...the chart that predicts breakouts.

We were 2 weeks or so late at catching the breakout which you can see on the green line about Feb 12...see the rise in the BBwidth which followed the strong rise of the MACD and Slo Sto...note that these latter indicators as usually happens lead the way... but it is the sudden rise of the BBwidth that pulls the trigger.... in this case a buy

the dotted red line shows a sell sign... Here the MACD and Slo Sto lead the way but they are falling...so when the BBwidth rises here it is a sell or a shorting opportunity.

In the blue box shows the end of the bearish run... see the MACD/BBwidth squeeze lead by a rise in the Slow sto... then MACD and the fall in the BBwidth.

currently in the above purple circle you see the share price closed above the upper Bollie... this is the second day it has done so... rarely does this happen more than 4 days in a row. So a pullback to bring the price under the BBwidht is expected in the next day or so.... however see the Slow Sto pegged into the region above 80 and the strong slopes of the MACD and BBWidth... any pullback at this time should be sides...not a plunge.


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This is my sentiment chart. What a beauty!

the Force(100) indicator could not be more bullish... the RSI 30 has a beautiful positive slope approaching 70 and the DI+/- has an amazing bullish divergence

not a bearish bone in this chart.


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this is my Ichimoku chart + indicators.

Another totally bullish chart in all respects. the Ichi is a way above the clouds and rising the thin blue/red lines are bullishly diverging... the On Bal Vol is super as is the CCI


Fundamental Analysis

here is the latest financial report dated last week. It is a beauty as well...read just the highlights if nothing else. this is a sample of the previous quarter highlights... this is a year end report so there are yearly highlights as well as the complete report in this link


Quoting 
2014 Fourth Quarter Highlights

Economic income was $18.9 million or $0.16 per diluted common share, compared to $2.7 million or $0.02 per diluted common share in the prior year period.
GAAP net income was $142.5 million or $1.21 per diluted common share compared to $2.5 million or $0.02 per diluted common share for the fourth quarter 2013. As previously mentioned, GAAP net income includes the Company's deferred tax valuation allowance which was released in the quarter, resulting in a deferred tax benefit of $128.1 million.
Revenue rose 72% year over year to $165.8 million from $96.5 million in the prior year period.
Assets under management increased by $320 million in the fourth quarter 2014.

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Conclusion

On the basis of this analysis I will enter an limit order for my fantasy portfolio for:

5000 shares of Cowen Group Inc. [Nasdaq:COWN] @ $5.30/share

the order will be entered shorthly after the bell on Monday Mach 2/15..... if the price is lower I will track it down to its lowest point before buying to get it cheaper... if the price is higher I will enter the order as stated and wait for it to come to my level... I may chase it if it takes off but not initially.

Good trading.


Last edited by Underexposed; March 2nd, 2015 at 03:14 AM.
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  #63 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
ok...tomorrow I hope that IDT Corp recovers and does not trip the limit Stop-loss.

I did a search today and think I have come up with a winner.

Cowen Group Inc. [Nasdaq:COWN]


Conclusion

On the basis of this analysis I will enter an limit order for my fantasy portfolio for:

5000 shares of Cowen Group Inc. [Nasdaq:COWN] @ $5.30/share

the order will be entered shorthly after the bell on Monday Mach 2/15..... if the price is lower I will track it down to its lowest point before buying to get it cheaper... if the price is higher I will enter the order as stated and wait for it to come to my level... I may chase it if it takes off but not initially. It won't be on my watchlist, but I will see how your trade progresses.

Good trading.

You seem to know what you're doing, so I am not offering criticism or advice. The below is merely my views on the two stocks you have on your radar.

IDT ticks a lot of the boxes and is currently on my watchlist. It is a pity that it sold off on such high volume as I generally prefer low volume in my bases. My portfolio is currently fully loaded, but should something stop out and IDT stay above 20.81, then I may consider some at 23.

COWN ticks a lot of my boxes, but there are 2 things I dislike about it, namely 1) it is cheap at $5.29 and b) it looks a little extended. I generally avoid stocks below $12 and prefer them above $20. Purely because of IBD and Dan Zanger and by using price minimums it keeps the number of stocks in my watchlist down. This is a tough one - it looks good, has had a nice consolidation and volatility has decreased, however, the low price could make it more volatile.

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grausch View Post
You seem to know what you're doing, so I am not offering criticism or advice. The below is merely my views on the two stocks you have on your radar.

IDT ticks a lot of the boxes and is currently on my watchlist. It is a pity that it sold off on such high volume as I generally prefer low volume in my bases. My portfolio is currently fully loaded, but should something stop out and IDT stay above 20.81, then I may consider some at 23.

COWN ticks a lot of my boxes, but there are 2 things I dislike about it, namely 1) it is cheap at $5.29 and b) it looks a little extended. I generally avoid stocks below $12 and prefer them above $20. Purely because of IBD and Dan Zanger and by using price minimums it keeps the number of stocks in my watchlist down. This is a tough one - it looks good, has had a nice consolidation and volatility has decreased, however, the low price could make it more volatile.

Thanks for your comment.. and while I am a bit shaky when it comes to the American market, I certainly believe in my style of Technical Analysis as evidenced in my Canadian Journal.

Your comment is welcome and serves as a second thought but if I ignored the analysis that I presented in my previous post, I might as well stop trading all together.

Rarely have I seen such a bullish set of charts starting with the P&F chart which shows it breaching a resistance that has stood for 5 years... traders who know this stock realize this and should respond accordingly. As I mentioned thre is NOT ONE negative in the entire set of 4 charts. I know that most here do not believe in indicators....but I do when used properly .... I take a consensus as though all indicators can give misinformation but they do not do so at the same time... there is not a negative in this whole set of charts...the consensus is definitely BULLISH.

TA aside I also look at the FA side of things and this rise in share price is not some random event.

You may or may not believe in financial reports but I like to look for confirmations of events and the week old year end report (best financials you could lay your hands on) is very bullish in its lack of long term debt and increase of earnings per share over the last year.

I agree that a stock less than $10 in American stocks are iffy... I have commented on this in the past. I combed through about 100 such stocks and found only 4 worth looking at in depth and of those only this one stood out as being worth buying.

It sounds to me that the major objection you have is simply based on its share price. As I said in past posts I was surprised at how poor most American stocks in the $5-$10 performed compared to Canadian stocks. But this seems to be a cut above the majority of American stocks in this price range.

If I am wrong....sobeit... I cannot think this analysis will fail me after being so reliable in Canadian stocks. But this is a journal of trying things and this is a fantasy portfolio but done so in the closest way I can possibly do to reflect real life trading and I announce my trades ahead of time... not 20/20 hindsight.

Thank you for your comment on this stock.... I am a long term hold/swing trader so we shall see how this plays out. I do expect a pullback though as it was last above the upper Bollinger band...that would not bother me long term.

Good Trading

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  #65 (permalink)
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Well I would have gotten my bid for 5000 shares of COWN @$5.30 as you can see from the following intra-day chart


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As I thought there was a pullback to $5.25 but this was after I would have bought it. We seem to be back to $5.30 so we shall cross our fingers for further gains.


As far as IDT goes the first minute of the day the price went to less than 21.00 but it was only for 100 shares or so so I will assume my holding did not sell over such a short spike.

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good trading

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Underexposed View Post
Thanks for your comment.. and while I am a bit shaky when it comes to the American market, I certainly believe in my style of Technical Analysis as evidenced in my Canadian Journal.

Your comment is welcome and serves as a second thought but if I ignored the analysis that I presented in my previous post, I might as well stop trading all together.

Rarely have I seen such a bullish set of charts starting with the P&F chart which shows it breaching a resistance that has stood for 5 years... traders who know this stock realize this and should respond accordingly. As I mentioned thre is NOT ONE negative in the entire set of 4 charts. I know that most here do not believe in indicators....but I do when used properly .... I take a consensus as though all indicators can give misinformation but they do not do so at the same time... there is not a negative in this whole set of charts...the consensus is definitely BULLISH.

TA aside I also look at the FA side of things and this rise in share price is not some random event.

You may or may not believe in financial reports but I like to look for confirmations of events and the week old year end report (best financials you could lay your hands on) is very bullish in its lack of long term debt and increase of earnings per share over the last year.

I agree that a stock less than $10 in American stocks are iffy... I have commented on this in the past. I combed through about 100 such stocks and found only 4 worth looking at in depth and of those only this one stood out as being worth buying.

It sounds to me that the major objection you have is simply based on its share price. As I said in past posts I was surprised at how poor most American stocks in the $5-$10 performed compared to Canadian stocks. But this seems to be a cut above the majority of American stocks in this price range.

If I am wrong....sobeit... I cannot think this analysis will fail me after being so reliable in Canadian stocks. But this is a journal of trying things and this is a fantasy portfolio but done so in the closest way I can possibly do to reflect real life trading and I announce my trades ahead of time... not 20/20 hindsight.

Thank you for your comment on this stock.... I am a long term hold/swing trader so we shall see how this plays out. I do expect a pullback though as it was last above the upper Bollinger band...that would not bother me long term.

Good Trading

Not judging your choices, merely offering my views. Dan Zanger, Mark Minervini and William O'Neil all avoid cheaper stocks, which is why I do so as well. I also found that removing these stocks from my screens made my screens a bit more manageable. Thus, I know why these gentlemen avoid lower priced stocks, but I have never verified their observations since those stocks never make it into my screens.

In any case, as with IDT, it seems a little overextended. With the benefit of hindsight, there were two tops at 4.83 and 4.84. Had it been on my radar, and had I missed those points, I would have let it go.

Again, this is not a judgement nor a criticism, merely offering my views and I am definitely interested in seeing how your trades go. Especially seeing how the Force 100 performs over time. We both try and capture long-term moves, we just go about it slightly differently.

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grausch View Post
Not judging your choices, merely offering my views. Dan Zanger, Mark Minervini and William O'Neil all avoid cheaper stocks, which is why I do so as well. I also found that removing these stocks from my screens made my screens a bit more manageable. Thus, I know why these gentlemen avoid lower priced stocks, but I have never verified their observations since those stocks never make it into my screens.

In any case, as with IDT, it seems a little overextended. With the benefit of hindsight, there were two tops at 4.83 and 4.84. Had it been on my radar, and had I missed those points, I would have let it go.

Again, this is not a judgement nor a criticism, merely offering my views and I am definitely interested in seeing how your trades go. Especially seeing how the Force 100 performs over time. We both try and capture long-term moves, we just go about it slightly differently.

I never thought you were judging my trades

My style of TA is different from most and it has been in development for over 10 years and is still evolving. Yes, I am excited about the addition of Force 100 to my suite of indicators, replacing CMF that I found to be an iffy indicator.

If we have the same objective (long term moves) but slightly different approaches this is excellent. There is more than one way to skin the cat and if we both agree on a particular stock then that to me would be a good thing ... confirmations from diverse sources is always useful.


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Underexposed View Post
If we have the same objective (long term moves) but slightly different approaches this is excellent. There is more than one way to skin the cat and if we both agree on a particular stock then that to me would be a good thing ... confirmations from diverse sources is always useful.

I count William O'Neil, David Ryan and Mark Minervini as big influences in my style of trading / investing. Thus, heavily into CANSLIM, although I will use the earlier buy points that Mark shows in his book.

An example of a stock I own is GRUB - my screen flagged it because of strong sales and earnings increases & strong relative strength. I then manually reviewed it and liked the fact it is a recent IPO and was forming a cup type base at the time (Jan 2015). I wanted to buy it at 38.93 - 39.03 , but the stock gapped past and I only got it at an average price of 40.53 (scaling into it as the gap reversed). Unfortunately, I got stopped out a couple of days later at 37.64. And of course re-entered a couple of days later at 41.75 (pyramided into it for an average price of 42.93). Based on its back-story as well, there seems to be room for a lot of growth, so I think there is scope for a very large move.

Most of the stocks I own have similar traits as the above. I try and hold them for extended periods as I find that holding for the longer term negates some of my weaknesses, i.e. exiting prematurely and then seeing the stock double over the course of a year while my own account suffers numerous small losses due to overactive trading...

In any case, I do not wish to derail your thread further. Will continue watching your progress and pop in occasionally. Oh, and I very much doubt that you need confirmation from me...you seem to be doing just fine without it.

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  #69 (permalink)
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grausch View Post

An example of a stock I own is GRUB - my screen flagged it because of strong sales and earnings increases & strong relative strength. I then manually reviewed it and liked the fact it is a recent IPO and was forming a cup type base at the time (Jan 2015). I wanted to buy it at 38.93 - 39.03 , but the stock gapped past and I only got it at an average price of 40.53 (scaling into it as the gap reversed). Unfortunately, I got stopped out a couple of days later at 37.64. And of course re-entered a couple of days later at 41.75 (pyramided into it for an average price of 42.93). Based on its back-story as well, there seems to be room for a lot of growth, so I think there is scope for a very large move.

In any case, I do not wish to derail your thread further. Will continue watching your progress and pop in occasionally. Oh, and I very much doubt that you need confirmation from me...you seem to be doing just fine without it.

Trust me... this type of discussion is NOT a derailment. I like to talk about individual stocks

Here is my TA on GRUB... I hope you don't mind....

Point & Figure chart (P&F)


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this is an interesting stock and it certainly has been on a tear since Feb (small red 2 at bottom of the third X column from the right is first movement in FEB)... now with a triple top breakout it looks very nice.... The chart computer predicts (upper left) a price of $52.75 but I would not bet the farm on that ...yet.

It has a minor resistance on the horizon at $43.50 where it may stumble but eventually pass.... the serious resistance is higher up at $45.25.... this is an all-time high for this stock's short life and investors know this.... so passing this level would give you a good shot at that $52.75 prediction.... nice but as I said it has 2 reistances to pass on the way

Trigger Chart


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this is not an easy chart to read as it is pretty volatile.

that first purple box shows a bearish sign but it is essentially a head fake . the Slo Sto and MACD looked fine declining for weeks and then the BBwidth broke positive which in this circumstance is a sell or short signal (I never short)...but look at the response of that BBwidth rise as well as the MACD / Slow Sto.... they reverse directions days later to kill that bear...

the Blue Box shows the gap you were talking about all three indicators are rising (a buy signal) but notice that the price is far above the upper BB.... one expects a pullback when you see this.

the pullback ends but the MACD and BBwidth resume rising... later followed by the Slow Sto... a bullish run

NOW in the green box is the current situation.... the price is in consolidation now... as such it may drop towards the 20daySMA (dotted green line) it looks fine so far as the MACD still climbs and the Slow Sto is pegged over 80.


Sentiment Chart

This is what I call my sentiment chart


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this chart is reasonable bullish despite the entry into consolidation (though on plotting the closing price it does not look like consolidation at all)

lots of good stuff here

the RSI 30 has a nice positive slope since Feb... the Force100 has a positive slope as well.... in addition the DMI+/- is still expanding.... the Parabolic Sar shows lots of room between it and the price no concern there.

this is quite bullish.

Ichimoku chart


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this chart could not be more bullish. The price is high above the clouds the thin blue line/thin red line are diverging bullishly... the On Bal Volume and CCI are flat out bullish

Conclusion

remember at the beginning I said the share price might stumble at $43.50... well looks like the end of this run will be there as we are in the start of consolidation. But the supporting charts are certainly bullish and I see no problem in passing that minor resistance.... with time

In consolidation the share price usually drifts to the 20daySMA as the bollies tighten. The next break out will probably happen 10 days from now as the BBwidth moves to 5 - 10

long term this looks fine so far.

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@Underexposed - not going to quote your post as it will just clutter up the screen, but will respond to specific points.

Don't mind your TA on any stocks. I have my method and whether or not we agree does not really matter to me. No offence, but I found that if I can't stick to my own methods, then I am in trouble.

Not really too interested in the predictions. I can see the resistance at 43.50 and 45.80. We passed 43.50 after your post, but I really need 41.75 to hold. Other than that, if it reaches 52.75, I will still try to hold. That would only be a 22% gain, and I think this one has the potential to at least double. I could be wrong, but if this one doubles, it can pay for a lot of losers. Thus, I need to hold and give it the opportunity.

Regarding my first buy point - yes, I should have expected a pullback, but I did not want to miss the trade. Since this could be a big winner I entered at much to high a price. It also could have been a major runner from that point onwards. After missing some buy points and then paying too much, I made some modifications to my entry method which will allow for better entries in such circumstances. Basically taking smaller positions and then looking for alternate add-on points.

I also own the following stocks that I think still have a lot of upside to them:

HRTG - Pretty recent IPO. Strong earnings and sales and they seem to be accelerating rapidly. I bought it pretty well at 20.12, but it has not done much recently. However, that could change quickly.

INGN - Pretty recent IPO. Strong earning and sales growth although HRTG's is better. I missed the initial breakout at 32.64 and only bought it next day at 33.87. Not a good entry and makes sitting with it harder, but I will still give it the required room.

MLNX - This one is interesting. I bought it on 11 June 2012 as it broke out of a consolidation pattern. Was stopped out on 17 July 2012. Next day the stock bounced off its 50 day, and the day thereafter gapped up 41% on earnings. The day thereafter, it was featured on IBD and the "you should add if a stock bounces off its 50-day" was explained in detail. That event is one of the few times I can criticize IBD for their reporting. This one I bought at an average price of 47.47, but am not entirely happy with the base and the subsequent breakout, but it is still quite far from my stop.

NSAM - Pretty recent IPO. Strong earnings and sales growth as well. Bought it for an average price of 23.56 and don't like yesterday's action, but it is still far from my stop and has the potential to move big.

PANW - Not quite such a recent IPO, but still recent enough for me (I can see the IPO on the weekly chart on Marketsmith). Earning and sales growth still very impressive and next quarter's earnings estimate looks excellent. Has already moved a lot (almost up 4x from its roughly 40 low), but who knows, it may still double. I missed the initial breakout at 85.78, and only bought it at about 128 after it did a little consolidation. Have a breakeven stop so can't lose money on this anymore.

PAYC - Pretty recent IPO. Strong earnings and sales growth. I bought it pretty badly with an average price of 30.75. Really wanted it and was afraid it would get away from me. Had I bought correctly, I would be sitting with a breakeven stop right now. In any case, I will give it the required room and see what develops. This one can be a very big mover.

QLYS - Not quite such a recent IPO. Strong sales and earnings growth. I bought for an average price of 41.32. My stop is at breakeven and I can give this one room. The gap up on earnings surprised me as I did not really expect much at the time, but now I believe it can still put in a nice run.

TWTR - Pretty recent IPO. Strong sales and earnings growth. I know exactly why I bought this one, and it was a terrible trade. Should have someone headslap me just for this. Usually I have entries that are a little too late, but they are coming out of bases. This one had nothing going for it. In any case, the big gap up to 48 caught my attention. Volume was 400% above average, do I was really bullish and just wanted an opportunity to buy. It made a very short consolidation and then broke through 48.50 (the previous high). I bought at 48.88, but I really should have given this one more time to consolidate. It is still pretty far from my stop, so I can give some room. It may work out, but I never should have been in this trade.

VEEV - Pretty recent IPO. Ok sales and earnings growth and provides cloud-based services (big buzzword right now). It barely made the relative strength criteria, but it broke out of its base on strong volume. I struggled to get it at my but point so paid slightly higher (31.46). Hasn't stopped me out yet and looking like it has some upside. Perhaps it will surprise me, but I don't see this on being a major winner unless earning improve dramatically. It has earnings out today and I have no unrealised profit cushion so I may sell it before the close.

WERN - Old company. Ok earnings growth, but sales growth lower than I like. Recent base also not pretty, but it has shown a nice move up after being neglected for very long. It could be the beginning of a stage 2 move (Stan Weinstein for reference). However, I really don't think it will be a major winner. Bought mine for an average price of 32.08 and will keep it until I get a 25% gain or am stopped out. Earnings are almost 2 months out, so if I have no decent profit cushion by then, it will be sold.

As you can see from the above, there are several stocks that I own and think have the potential to move up a lot. I currently am a little overdiversified and definitely overexposed, but I had no problem finding strong growth stocks in the US. My screen currently has 113 stocks in it, but not many of these are setting up in bases. Unfortunately I missed several of the largest wins on this list because I took profits too early, but I have realised that weakness and am addressing it right now.


Last edited by grausch; March 3rd, 2015 at 05:09 AM. Reason: typos
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