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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)
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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)

  #51 (permalink)
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mid week status Feb 11

not such a hot week though Heartland is not plummeting to trip the Limit stop loss, even though I raised the limit stop loss to save a few more dollars.


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A small loss so far but a loss none the same.

We came close to buying IDT Corp today when the price wandered down to $21.70 and we had the limit bid at $21.40 as shown in this chart


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Here is the daily chart


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Here you see in the main chart the spike down but it pulled back to close above the 20day sma

Now look at the Slow Sto.... it has made a curl upwards... the MACD is still on the neg slope so it is very important to watch for the breakout now.... Note the BBwidth...it has fallen into a range where a breakout can happen any day now.

I had hoped to sell this stock at the lower price but I don't think the price will go that low again soon. I think it will test that 20daySMA again before rising again and hence trip the revised order at $22.00

That is the plan anyway

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  #52 (permalink)
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Well, wonder of wonders a positive week for a change. The Heartland Express [HTL] is responding well after I applied the limit stop-loss... I keep moving it higher as it climbs and some day it will trip a sale... no emotion to this method of selling and I let it recover in price. I have lots of cash right now.... if I needed the money for another opportunity I would have pulled the plug by now...but that is not necessary as I am having trouble finding a good long term play in the $20-$35 / share range {sigh}

Here is the status report

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Good trading .....

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  #53 (permalink)
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investigating a new indicator - Force Index


I have not been overly satisfied with a couple of my indicators... specifically commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

They have been reasonable to use but often I was not happy with my interpretation of their charts and the look they give is frankly similar and I want to eliminate that.

I have not tried every indicator that is out there....It takes time to review them all and I was satisfied with what I have...but now I have changed my mind after seeing how the FORCE INDEX indicator is used.

I had looked at this indicator in the past but as is normal most indicator discussions on the net are directed at the intraday trader....not the long term trader. By accident my attention was draw to this indicator and I dug in further...liking what I was seeing more and more

the index is described quite well here on Stockcharts.com

Force Index [ChartSchool]

the calculation is quite simple, taking a series of one period (for a daily chart it would be one day) and taking the closing price for that day... comparing it to the previous closing price... subtract the current closing price from the previous periods multiply that by the closing volume for the period and that becomes Force(1).... Force(14) would be a 14 day ema of the last 14 days of Force (1) values..... Force(100) would simply the 100 day EMA of the past 100 Force(1) values.

I looked at what Force (9), Force(14) and Force(100) on a chart for CPG.TO


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now this is really interesting ....look how clear the Force (100) defines bull from bear.... the green means Bull/ Brown is bear.

now in the blue box you see the values are very small and chatter above and below .... as a long term trader I don't like this...it is not clear to me what is going on....an intraday trader wants more action but I don't.

Below the index stays green throughout.... but it still gives me info....in the trend of the green lines... it trends up as the strength grows and as it declines the possibility of going full on bear increases.

the RED line amazes me...all three identified the day the chart went from Bull to Bear.... this is because the index uses EMA and not SMA for calculating the Force index.... it is the first time I clearly see the advantage of EMA in action.

the lower values identified the bottom well enough .... the Force(100) did as well if you look at the peak in the mud. But as you can see it treated the consolation with suspicion... the value in Force(100) trended well where the other 2 declared a bull run... which is fine for a short term swing.... the real bull run comes in mid Jan....Blue line... the trend looks fine now

This is the first blush at this indicator .... for long term trading so far I think this is a great indicator at 100, force (100)

This is my first post on this indicator... it won't be the last.

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  #54 (permalink)
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that's an interesting indicator that kind of puts that volume/price relationship theory into a couple of lines.

one thought though....i'm not sure that the relationship holds all the time. for example, there are many times when a trend can continue rising on very little volume, which should show a decrease in the curve (in an uptrend). one nice thing is exhaustion volume would be easily demonstrated if it coincides with a price peak, and there would be a divergence in volume that's easy to see in a second peak (if it made a double top).

just thinking out loud.


P.S.
As an aside - I like indicators that demonstrate market structure. Price average is fine, and does shed some light on the relative trendiness of price but doesn't really describe structure. I think price and volume together do bring out some structure, and other things like volume-weighted average price, price standard deviations, and volume concentrations I'm finding helpful. I'm starting to use some volume profiling to look at where volume is concentrated. Also, I'm slowly getting away from using time. I feel like time (like day or week or 15min) is a relative description of the market and doesn't really bring out its structure. Though trading is definitely limited by time, and people's bonuses and such are based productivity per time unit. Seeing how price tends to move in blocks, I've started to use range/momentum bars (though the range is something that's arbitrarily defined) to help me see what price is really doing.


Last edited by jackbravo; February 18th, 2015 at 07:28 AM.
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  #55 (permalink)
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jackbravo View Post
that's an interesting indicator that kind of puts that volume/price relationship theory into a couple of lines.

one thought though....i'm not sure that the relationship holds all the time. for example, there are many times when a trend can continue rising on very little volume, which should show a decrease in the curve (in an uptrend). one nice thing is exhaustion volume would be easily demonstrated if it coincides with a price peak, and there would be a divergence in volume that's easy to see in a second peak (if it made a double top).

this is true and I don't think this would be quite so visible if one use the Force Index at a smaller interval. What you would see is a small oscillation around the zero point...but in Force (100) you can trend the green or brown line (depending on whether you are playing the stock bullish or bearish) and see those reduced volumes effect.

Again....my focus is on a long term hold... if one were looking for a short term swing I would probably suggest a smaller value for the FORCE Index... this would NOT MEAN I would do this for intra-day trading using a 5 minute chart since an 8 hour day would be similar to a 96 day chart (however, I would not use this on a chart that has frequent data omissions during a 5 minute period.

My next post will be comparing the use of this indicator to CCI and CMF.... As I said earlier these indicators are ones in my collection that I would like to replace.

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  #56 (permalink)
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Ok... I have looked at a comparison of Force(100) to the way I am using CMF and CCI and it is quite enlightening

I have taken the three stocks that so far interest me Heartland Express [NASD:HTLD], Radiant Logistics Inc. [AMEX:RLGT] and finally IDT Corp [NYSE:IDT] and here we go.....


Heartland Express [NASD:HTLD]


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this has been a stock with a trailing stop-loss since that dive in the first couple of days in Feb when it took that swan dive

Now the drop was suggested in the Force(100) because it went from green to brown... if you were vigilent there you had a 2 day heads-up that something bad was to follow... why would you follow this indicator??? Look at the contrary formation between the movement of the share price and the Force(100).... see the steady decline since April in the peaks.... THAT SHOULD HAVE ALERTED ME that something bad was on the horizon... the mild drop in the mud in early Jan/2015 hopefully would have jerked me awake to put a limit stop-loss on this stock and trailed the rise until it sold

However I did not buy this stock until then in this portfolio. {sigh}

You get none of this information in the CMF... yes, it follows the dips and dives of the stock price.... but I would be buying and selling this stock every few days if followed this and look at the comparison within the red box. The CMF looks downright bearish... by comparison the CCI is bullish except for that dip in early October... the Force(100) was bullish throughout but with declining strength.

The CCI does do a decent job of showing the dips and dives of the stock in the moment...CMF not so much... sometimes it shows bullish when it is bear... the trends are as meaningful.


Radiant Logistics Inc. [AMEX:RLGT]


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here again it is soooo easy to interpret the FORCE(100).... the trend declined for almost 6 months but this did not end in a bear result...You even got a heads-up of better days to come with that higher peak at the end of the orange arrow and Blue line... the CCI gave it too by being above and around 100... the CFM dropped into the mud...false negative

Now the CCI is not perfect... in the end of Oct it drops to bear...where the Force(100) is strong and tall

Currently the stock has taken a dip while in consolidation and you can see that reflected in the declining Force(100)... the CCI shows this to be a bearish dip the CMF basically says all is fine

I believe this to be true... the bollies will get tighter before a real movement is determined


IDT Corp [NYSE:IDT]


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In this case all three give decent information but I like the increasing strength of the FORCE (100) which emulated the price rise ... the CCI is showing some caution as the share price is in the throat of a BB squeeze... the CMF is turning bearish Which I don't see as imminent.


CONCLUSION

This is not extensive testing at all but I think I will be removing CMF from my "sentiment Chart and replacing it with Force(100)

it is 1:00pm in the trading day Feb 18....I am raising my Limit Stop Loss on Heartland Express to $25.60 to $25.64.... I think there are further drops in store but I will give it a chance to rise further...but this stop-loss is very tight and I expect it to sell soon.

I notice that IDT Corp fell to $22.12 (you can see it on the low of the day in the chart above) so I am happy with the purchase of the stock.

I hope you have found this post helpful....I think I will go to my Canadian stock journal and test out the stocks there to see if any should be put under a magnifying glass.

Good Trading


EDIT... rats.... I made a mistake... the bid was for $22.00 not $22.20 so though it was close it is no cigar...the Stock price of IDT rose to $22.25 by the end of day.


Last edited by Underexposed; February 18th, 2015 at 10:45 PM.
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  #57 (permalink)
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Mid week status Feb 18

Well I sold Heartland Express... using the trailing Limit Stop-Loss allowed me to reclaim most of the losses that occurred during the drop a while ago... I think this stock will drop in the near future...I gave it a chance and it has not really performed.

IDT Corp is another matter ....it is primed for a breakout as can be seen in this chart.


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The Slo Sto is in the 80 range, the MACD does have a slight decline but not severe... the BBwidth is in the range for a breakout... It still could go anywhere.... the price is right on top of the 20daySMA... the stock is holding its cards close to its chest.


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this chart has the new Force Index indicator that I have been discussing earlier... first note that the 20 daySMA is acting as support...

the Force Index looks great but it has leveled off with a slight decline... I would call this mildly bullish still.

The RSI is flat now but in bullish territory.... I would call this neutral bullish... neutral for its flat slope, bullish for its location.

Same deal with the DI+/- neutral bullish


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the Ichimoku chart is bullish... the thin blue line is above the thin red one and the price is above the green cloud... there may be trouble on the horizon if it falters as that cloud is getting closer.

the on bal Vol is full on bullish and the CCI is neutral.

I will be watching this stock like a hawk in the morning...any hint of a positive breakout without falling to $22.00 and I will buy it... in truth I should buy it right now but I won't... I believe my bid will work


Here is the Mid-week status reflecting the sale of Heartland Express

I feel stuck in neutral in this portfolio but at least I am treading water so far

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  #58 (permalink)
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well the price of IDT Corp fell to $22.00 as can be seen in this chart so I will assume my order for 500 shares is now filled

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Now it can reverse and start making money

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Well, still plugging away in this portfolio here is the week end status

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Like my Canadian portfolio I have applied limit stop loss orders to these stocks... in the Canadian one I am protecting fantasy profits....here I suppose I am protecting against further losses things seem so uncertain to me with Oil prices, Ukraine, Greece and whatever.

IDT Corp looks like it will break out early next week.

Here are links to the charts I am monitoring.


IDT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

this trigger chart is really ripe... I think I might even add to this holding.

IDT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


See the uptick in the Force (100).... actually all indicators look fine.

could be very early in the week

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Just a note to say that I am taking a breather and traveling south to visit my son, daughter-in-law and grandson.

I will be back on this site as of Saturday... it is just a short vacay.

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