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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)
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Underexposed - American Stock Journal (long term)

  #101 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
Agree that Darvas would be fascinated. The Bollinger Band squeezes tend to be during periods of low volatility or sideways movement. While I don't think he implicitly stated it, boxes with smaller resistance / support zones, i.e. smaller consolidations, allow for larger reward to risk trades. That is one of the tools in my toolbox.

.............

Even though his book may be a little outdated, I love his writing style and I still found some things that influenced my trading positively.

I found his book on-line as a PDF file here

http://vantagepointtrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/How-I-Made-2000000-in-the-Stock-Market.pdf

and quickly read the first couple of chapters. His approach to the market back then seems to mirror a lot of newbies today. No plan, accepting pump & dump stock tips from media rags or brokers who had a product to sell or blissfully ignorant other traders. Then he graduated to fundamentals and adopted a buy and hold philosophy and finally a technical approach leading to his "boxes".

He certainly details his journey well. But as I said, I see nothing in his approach that I do not already employ in my charts.

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  #102 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
He certainly details his journey well. But as I said, I see nothing in his approach that I do not already employ in my charts.

I guess it also depends on where in one's trading journey one reads his book. It was one of the earlier books I read and therefore I hold it in high regard. For a newbie the book will definitely add value, but for someone who already has a profitable method it will most likely be just an entertaining read.

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  #103 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
I guess it also depends on where in one's trading journey one reads his book. It was one of the earlier books I read and therefore I hold it in high regard. For a newbie the book will definitely add value, but for someone who already has a profitable method it will most likely be just an entertaining read.

I will agree there as the book documents the blind alleys he followed, before settling on a real method... ie: taking advice from other traders, newsletters, their brokers... etc.

especially the latter... when I started I was unaware of discount brokers and when a company I worked for had a program of matching their employee's share purchase in company stock and paying the fees on the purchases, I then had a broker.... a full service one. I would have made a healthy profit in the first year except for the fees they charged and I made better picks than what was offered me. The only person who really has your interests at heart is yourself... everyone else has an agenda....

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  #104 (permalink)
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mid week status March 18

Attached is the status of the portfolio to date. On the cusp of having 3 weeks in a row with a positive outcome. {heart be still!!!}


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There is a nice balance so far...let us check out each ticker to see a basic overview of the individual stocks.


Radiant Logic [RLGT]


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this is our best return so far at over 14% return so far... it is an interesting chart to look at. I have often said that prices that rise above the upper Bollie don't stay there long... A week ago it broke out in this manner... 4 days later it pulled back into the BB envelope.... Is the run over???

I don't think so... the pullback as it re-entered has gone in the best possible scenario.... Sideways with a slight positive slope as shown in the blue circle.

Now look at the Slow Sto... headed back to 80... Bullish... MACD has a slight positive slope though flat... mildly bullish, ... the BBwidth still rising (the BB's are diverging still.

I think things are fine for the short term... at the very worst it has entered a consolidation phase and gravitate to the 20daySMAI won't set a Stop Loss at this point but don't rule it out if negative things happen soon.


Blueknight Energy [BKEP]


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I thought at first this was a O&G producer but on further look it is not


Quoting 
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P., owns & operates diversified portfolio of complementary midstream energy assets. It provides storage, terminalling & transportation services to production & marketing of crude oil and liquid asphalt cement companies.

so it is the middle man..... oil products still gotta move.

This stock has renewed a breakout... look at the share price and the 200daySMA... see since Mar 1 how it was a resistance then a support and again a resistance which was breached 3 days ago.

Now look at the indicators..... Slo Sto has responded excellent once it fell to the 20daySMA and now is bullish... the MACD is headed for a higher high and the BBwidth looks to be breaking to a positive slope now after being in a flat plateau for a while

No need to get nervous over this stock at this point.


Carriage Services Inc [CSV]


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this is a funeral service company...definitely a company that is independent of the market IMHO

As @grausch has mentioned.... this certainly a chart that looks like a rising staircase. It looks to be following a rising channel.

The Slo Sto is very bullish , MACD headed for higher high... the BBwidth has plateaued (reflecting the channel the price finds itself in. No concerns as long as it stays above the green support line... if the BBwidth falls but the other two indicators stay pretty much the same then even a slight dip below that green support won't be a worry as the stock would be in consolidation and another possible jump in the offing I expect.

Cowen Group [COWN]


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this stock is deep in consolidation right now.... in a good way...going sideways with a slight pos slope... see the slo Sto pegged high over 80...very nice... the MACD is very slowly in decline... the BBwidth is rapidly falling now but I would say there was at least a week before we need look hard at this stock's future movement... it will take that long for the BBwidth to fall to 5 where the action begins.


Heritage Insurance [HRTG]


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this is the only potential bad guy in the group.... it is in decline now in consolidation, reaching for the 20daySMA.

See the decline of the Slo Sto and MACD...not serious yet but something that needs to be watched... it it hits the 20day SMA I will think about putting in a stop-loss to stop the bleeding if it falls further... this is consolidation so the price will wander....it is the PLUNGE we want to avoid

So far so good...nice to be in the black.....

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  #105 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
Heritage Insurance [HRTG]

this is the only potential bad guy in the group.... it is in decline now in consolidation, reaching for the 20daySMA.

See the decline of the Slo Sto and MACD...not serious yet but something that needs to be watched... it it hits the 20day SMA I will think about putting in a stop-loss to stop the bleeding if it falls further... this is consolidation so the price will wander....it is the PLUNGE we want to avoid

I still own it with an average price of 20.38. Would really like to see it hold yesterday's low, but who knows, it may retrace all the way back to the old breakout-low of 20.60. That would still leave me with some time to move my stop to break-even...right now I don't like the action, but if it bounces back strongly, I will be bullish on it again.

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  #106 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
I still own it with an average price of 20.38. Would really like to see it hold yesterday's low, but who knows, it may retrace all the way back to the old breakout-low of 20.60. That would still leave me with some time to move my stop to break-even...right now I don't like the action, but if it bounces back strongly, I will be bullish on it again.

well if you look at that chart for Heritage [HRTG] in my last post at the share price you will see a small "hammer" for the last candlestick. I don't really place a lot of faith in candlestick directions but so far we are up $0.04 since the bell.

I am waiting until the consolidation phase is over before deciding on keeping this or not... the bollies will start converging fast in the next few days but it will still be at least 5 - 10 business days before this tiger shows its stripes.

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  #107 (permalink)
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Ok... I have about $12,000 in cash ... it is time to spend it.

The stock I have chosen is Vonage Holdings [NYSE:VON]

this is basically a TA breakout play.... here are my complete chart evaluation


P&F Chart


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We are nudging against a pretty strong resistance... It has not been higher than $4.80 since 2011. It is in an ascending triple top breakout breakout in this chart starting in the beginning of February. There is a diagonal support and a fairly strong band of support between $4.45 -$4.50....quite Bullish


Trigger Chart


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You can see that rising resistance line... well it has broken to the positive side. At the time when the the three trigger indicators are breaking into a positive slope... another bullish sign


Sentiment Chart


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It is easier to see the Resistance/support trend lines with this line chart. Again the breakout above the resistance is easy to see... that resistance line is now a support line of some significance.

the Force(100) indicator is strong.... the RSI at this point is bullishly neutral (bullish from its position and neutral because it is flat)... the DI+/- is bullishly diverging

Nice chart


Ichimoku chart


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the Ichimoku chart looks nice.... it is rising as it approaches that Green cloud.... the thin blue line could be rising faster but it is still ahead of the thin red line.

the onBal volume is neutral right now after a bullish climb... the CCI is full on bullish


Conclusion

this stock is ripe for a nice gain. I have $12,220 available right now... at $4.80/share I have enough money for 2500 shares.

At the bell on Friday March 20 I will enter an order for 2500 shares of Vonage [NYSE:VG] @ $4.80/share... Of course if the price opens lower than this I will buy it at a lower price

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  #108 (permalink)
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Here is the intra-day chart starting this morning for VG

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So We have completed additions to this portfolio adding 2500 shares of Vonage [NYSE:VG] @ $4.80/share ... looks good long term with only mild concerns for Heritage [HRTG] which may be looked at next week.


I will have to focus more attention onto my Canadian Portfolio now as things seem to be turning around in Canadian markets.

Good trading

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  #109 (permalink)
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Ok... that last post was the brain fart of the day... Forgot where I was.

It was about gold if you want to see the discussion read about it in the Canadian journal that I have.

We have much more choices in Canada when it comes to Gold related companies, you can see this with a simple Screen shot of a FinViz screen of Gold companies by country.

Canada

Stock Screener - Overview canada gold

USA

Stock Screener - Overview usa gold

this result is VERY misleading for Canadian opportunities even though on the US exchanges Canada companies out number American owned companies by a ratio of 33:8 in favour of Canada or about 4:1.

Now you don't see the OTCBB stocks for Gold and if you want to find scams galore... try there for gold stocks but in Canada if I do a scan for gold stocks I find

Toronto Exchange (85 companies)
Toronto Venture Exchange (176 companies)

Stock Screener | Search stocks by screener criteria

You will have to run the screener yourself to see these values but they are correct.

the Canadian Companies on FinViz are there because they are double listed (Canada/USA)

Anyway, Gold is a fickle commodity to follow...I prefer stocks not the commodity... It really does not matter much which company you invest in.... if they are not SCAMS, are producers and not exploration companies, have operating revenues .... they all respond to gold future prices the same.... Lakeshore Gold is one I personally like but it is less than a dollar on American exchanges...it should be higher and would be if it were not for the fall in Gold price.... but that is all the discussion I will do on this company here.

As far as the portfolio goes... we have our third week in a row of positive result.... I am pretty satisfied with the portfolio as it stands and I have access to other other potential stocks if I need them... Using that StockFetcher.com query service has made my job easier.

Here is the weekly summary

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Good trading

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