This is a journal with live trading posts since 2012!
Hi everybody
Thanks BigMike for the invitation to your journal competition - I am taking the rope :-)
For my trading three main points were essential and important
1) Plan your trade and …
FOR ALL that are not familiar with my DAX journal - PLEASE READ that one before you ask here.
As the rules in mentioned GFIs1 thread are not allowing a trade on all days - especially in high volatility phases -
I was searching for a method to squeeze some more points out of the nice moves with high vola.
AND: to not let too much money on the table.
So I came to the Rule for Dummies
which works exclusively during these extreme volatile days when market slips. ***
I named it: "The Wiener Walzer" which means 1 - 2 - 3 - 4
If you can count up to four - this thread is for you!
Like in the parent thread - the trades are always intraday. More important: Only 30 minute candle chart.
A daily trade depends on this special easy pattern.
Two trades to take. Time to stay in the market: 2 hours. (plus one hour to find the right pattern)
Exactly. Nothing more!
Let's waltz!
**Watch: 1 - 2
**Enter: 3 - 4 - Close
**Reverse direction enter: 1 - 2 - Close
Finished!
Now to the rules:
Important: Previous day(s) need to have a Hi/Lo day range of more than 150 points in the DAX. Otherwise NO TRADE!
1) Look at 30 minute candles.
2) Enter SHORT after 2 consecutive RED candles.
3) Close the trade exactly after 60 minutes
4) Enter immediately a new trade LONG
5) Close trade after exactly 60 minutes
GFIs1
*** TRIGGER for entry:
The body of the first candle in the fast market needs a BODY (open/close in the 30min.) of > 50 points.
Works in both directions. Then the waltz may begin!
NOTE to first readers: This thread is a JOURNAL. The trades are normally written here before taking.
All trades of one Walzer are packed in ONE post to make it more readable.
The trades are for educational live/backtest reasons and are never a trading recommendation.
Q & A
1) Is there a "overnight Walzer"?
If a signal comes on the last candle of the future and on next day it triggers a
Walzer signal - then: NO there is no overnight Walzer
2) Is there a Walzer on ECB days?
On days when the ECB president is talking about ECB decision and explaining the
results - normally price might move erratically: NO there is no Walzer because it can be triggered and lands in stop loss. Such
pattern is not given under normal circumstances.
3) Is there a Walzer on triple witch days?
On triple witch days some bigger market players might come in to bring prices to
their foreseen levels with quite some effect - normally price might move erratically: NO there is no Walzer because it can be triggered and lands in stop loss. Such
pattern is not given under normal circumstances.
The following 29 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Here we jump into that pattern after above rules of the Wiener Walzer. Always 30 min. candles!
First TWO red candles have to be seen BEFORE entering the trade exactly to the 30 minute.
These are the 2 pre-steps of the Walzer: step 1 and step 2 each a red 30min. candle.
Then the trade starts with short step 3 and exit step 4
PLUS the countertrade to the same time as exit step 4
is entry step 1 long and exit step 2.
Total time in market: 1 hour short and 1 hour long for each combined trade.
In the following example we see 2 Wiener Walzer yesterday and one Wiener Walzer for today.
Total points can be seen in the upper right
Every Walzer was positive here. We have to check upcoming trades in volatile market moments
to confirm these easy rules.
GFIs1
The following 9 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Of course the opposite side was very tempting: The LONGS. Do they work?
Let's have a look.
And they do
These "trades" were not traded live - they are just the found patterns with the described rules.
Result:
With 2 days trading these rules - I would have gained more than 50% of the yearly total GFIs1
daily Dax gains. (Shhhh...) Of course I will take the trades when it is that easy.
See here the combined results:
GFIs1
The following 5 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Upper posts were for testing and educational reasons..
Results shown have nothing to do with real trades and will not count anywhere.
From now I will post my daily trades when high volatility is seen exclusively in this thread.
With that concept we can understand the difference of lower vola rules (and results) versus
high vola rules. Will be very interesting indeed!
So with the first real trade it will be the intended JOURNAL.
Feel free to test it yourselves. Even on different instruments. You may report it here as well. Thanks!
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
That's great trading results so far GFIs1
Not many days on the DAX below 150 points High->Low , it's fantastic to trade it when looking for volatility. :-)
You are not using any stop-loss on these trades ?
The following user says Thank You to sharpshoota for this post:
Thanks @sharpshoota
This is a test drive - new model - colour still fresh :-)
For the stops I have to see.
So far I am happy that it works (worked).
Not sure about the next outcomes - and stops are then
only decoration.
There are for sure some guys out there to backtest this easy rule
and maybe find the best stop.
GFIs1
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
The question about trading time of this system here versus to the original GFIs1 one Dax:
Here it is a basic pattern finding. That can be traded throughout the full time the future is
traded: from 08:00 to 22:15.
One example is some posts up - where I announced one trade realtime.
Of course in the parent thread the trading hours are strictly cash hours and will not change.
But be aware - as I am not prolonging here screen time too much - there will be situations
I do not follow and therefore might miss a opportunity.
As you know how to dance it yourself (counting 1 - 2 - 3 - 4) it will be easy though
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
@GFIs1,
I really enjoy following your other journal and this new one for those "other days" looks like a good start! It looks like a good way to profit from those crazy zig-zag days. Thank you for this new journal and I look forward to seeing the results!
JohnS
The following user says Thank You to JohnS for this post:
@GFIs1,
Am I missing something with the strategy? it is not volatile today before the FOMC news at 2000 or CPI report at 1430, which doesn't mean that I did not trade .
The 2 previous days were too volatile to trade a normal wednesday Dax trade today.
So I am looking for jumping in into some slipping moves.
Today FED 20:15h, Friday a magnet on 9600 area (for CFDs et al)
We might see some some "strange" jumps.
But of course the volume is not to compare with the 3 previous days.
@GFIs1,
I want to make sure that I did not give the wrong impression, I was trading my own plan this morning and not following yours. I create my own trade recommendations . Perhaps I should have provided more detail in my posting. I was just curious over the entry on a morning of low volatility because I thought the strategy was for high volatility. But you have now answered my question. I am interested to see how this story develops!
Thanks @JohnS
Your input is great - I was only telling some thread readers that this "Walzer adventure" is still not ripe to
just jump in. It will be very interesting to where it leads though.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
can you look at the above picture and tell me why you wouldn't take the trigger LONG in the circle. Is it because of a news item or something? It meets the rules, in this case two straight green bars, but was not taken. Sorry if Im missing something here
The following user says Thank You to sixsmith07 for this post:
Hi @sixsmith07
You are absolutely right.
My charts on 15th were only considering the shorts.
On 16th I turned the rules upside down and considered longs too.
Of course in your chart showing the 15th that long would have given extra points.
Thanks for pointing out.
Looks good.
How many points stop are you suing?
Also- many of the red candles will be produced on the back of data/number releases so isnt this to much risk???And you will not be able toenter at that price.
Also- if you see 2 red candles u cannot hold them thru a eco number release? as this would just be gambling surely??
Cheers
The following user says Thank You to CPRICE76 for this post:
This approach is uniquely thought for volatile consecutive days. A situation which we had the last 4 trading days.
Vola of 220 to 380 points a day and a very high volume. Really rare to see this during the year.
On such days my "normal" daytrade has no chance and the rules prevent from taking a trade.
This thread is a test for extreme volume days and even "number" will not have the strong effect seen in calmer
markets. If for some reason markets are shaken then we need a hint when to take a trade with high probability
of gaining good points. BUT: it IS high risk!
As for the stops I have not yet found the right distance. The 30 points I use normally is not good as the price
this week sometimes moved within minutes over 50 points in both directions. So we need to test more.
Price filling in this shaky moments has often bigger slippage - so shown results are hypothetical.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
If we are in normal mode - then I will nearly never trade during a news release...
There is even a rule to get out before and reenter after the news.
But in high vola mode the moves are already before the news. So the
move within the release time should not harm the same way.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Checking out the very high volatile days on Monday and Tuesday - I had to update
my rule with an important TRIGGER:
To jump in with this easy "Walzer rule" the first candle needs a BODY of >50 points.
Not forget: on 30 min. candle.
Otherwise no trade!
I backtested and this is the important entry rule.
I will update in the original post...
Good trades
GFIs1
..waiting for the next bigger moves
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Today in the new march contract we could see a IB candle body of 47 points.
That is very near to the trigger point.
Need to carefully follow this short until 10:00 :-)
Good trades
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
After a strong long IB from 09:00 to 10:00
it is an interesting constellation for a test:
If this downmove until 10:30 closes <9740 we
could see another good test condition..
Vola is good.
The trend was clear...
But the setup did not happen as wanted
Finally price fell out south of Kumo in 60min chart.
This is a good sign for further short.
Looking forward a next volatile pattern test.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Tuesday - still in hi vola - we can find a ONE new pattern of the
"Wiener Walzer":
First - previous days must have shown more than 150 points during cash hours
Second - the BODY of a 30 min candle has to show more than 50 points
Third - a consecutive candle in the same direction has to be seen before entry.
Now on Tuesday we found a valid pattern for the HighVola "Wiener Walzer 1-2-3-4"
1) first red candle 16:30 to 17:00: 60 points (1)
2) waiting for second candle: 50 points (2)
3) entry 17:30 (yes - even after cash hours here - and only here): @ 9493 (3)
4) closing 18:30 @ 9456 (plus 37 points) (4)
5) going long 18:30 @ 9456 (5)
6) closing 19:30 @ 9477 (plus 21 points) (6)
Total short trade (37) plus long trade (21) made 58 points
On a day where normal rules were not adequate: THE SYSTEM WORKS
So the pattern (in all cases until now were SHORT) is still VALID
GFIS1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
1) first red candle 16:30 to 17:00: 60 points (1)
2) waiting for second candle: 50 points (2)
3) entry 17:30 (yes - even after cash hours here - and only here): @ 9493 (3)
4) closing 18:30 @ 9456 (plus 37 points) (4)
5) going long 18:30 @ 9456 (5)
6) closing 19:30 @ 9451 (plus 21 minus 5 points) (6)
Total short trade (37) plus long trade (-5) made +32 points
On a day where normal rules were not adequate: THE SYSTEM WORKS
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Thanks @stef
The Hi vola in the Dax is still in testing version right now.
If the pattern is confirmed and in real time it will happen
again - I will take the trade.
Up to now it is still a test and looking back a method
for future opportunities.
Just being patient now.
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
This candle was green...
I have not yet backtested if the Wiener Walzer rules are good for longs too.
Up to now I have only seen working patterns on shorts. They made all money.
Might be a good exercise to test these occurences in the statistics thread.
My perception of that special pattern:
If some drops are seen (body in 30 min more than 50 points) we can assume
that many stops were taken out. If volume is growing too with this move, some
more sells are probable. Until new buyers come in and turn the short in to a long.
For longs (body in 30min more than 50 points) the situation is very different though.
This thread is created to discover such patterns and test them.
For sure we can find different patterns as well.
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
This friday we had after a strange upmove from thursday and a strong
dive in the afternoon (US numbers).
The Wiener Walzer worked perfectly again (I missed that one live)
Started with
1) 15:30 9836 to 9737 (99 points) SHORT 1
2) 16:00 9737 to 9709 (28 points) SHORT 2
3) 16:30 9707 to 9688 (19 points) ENTRY
4) 17:00 9688 to 9622 (66 points) Exit and Entry LONG
5 and 6) 17:30 to 18:30 9622 to 9671 (49 points)
The short and the long gave a result of 134 points.
Hopefully some readers of the thread could profit!
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
We can see that not all trades ended optimal:
The 6th 30min could be skipped - sometimes.
Speaking of the Short/Long combination.
I am testing a trigger for this setting now.
Like: If 3rd candle (our entry) does not have a body of more than 30 points
then get out 30 minutes earlier on the long. Would save some minus points
in the last half hour.
10:30 to 11:00 had 84 points.. (long)
next candle started green too
Now let's wait for 11:30 to hop on or not.
very thin though
1) entry long 11:30 @ 9792
2) exit long 12:30 @ 9803 (+11 points)
3) entry short 12:30 @ 9803
4) exit short 13:00 @ 9813 (-10 points) - was nearly sure after the near Doji on the second candle
new rule for a shorter second leg...
lets see the exit 13:30 to compare
4) exit short 13:00 @ 9795 (+8 points) A total of 19 points in the combined but...
OK: the setting on 2nd candle was already dead..
Making some points or losing: it is not really of interest to jump in when we see a broken trend.
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Developing on the 9:30 candle green: could be the attack of 10K again
Alarm of >50 points body
Aggressive volume >15K on first green candle
1) 9:30 to 10:00 (49.5 points)
2) 10:00 to 10:30 confirmation long (20.5 points)
3) entry 10:30 @ 9876.5
4) exit 11:30 @ 9900
gain 23.5 points
stopped here as the setup is no longer valid
so no short..
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
thanks @stef
yes - the red was today always present - here now 53 points
but we had very strong long pusher in the morning
Let's see what we can do about..
Next candle: Doji
no confirmation yet
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Some investors in the markets have been set aside (bad for them..)
but the market will have a bit less speculators and pricing will be
more market adequate.
Hoping to see the German Dax to develop more predictable than what
we have seen during the last months.
Just my personal view.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I am just looking at the Dax and follow if a pattern is showing up.
Only difference to my other journal is that here we can watch patterns forming during futures opening - means
longer than cash hours.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
In fact we had a first green candle of 52 points on 15:30 to 16:00
It overshooted a lot..
The following is still winding slowly up after a deep dive..
Now - of course high risk!
16:30 entry long: 10257
17:30 exit long: 10301
17:30 entry short: 10301
18:30 exit short: 10306
result long 43 points, short -5 points
Total 38 points ***
Good trades!
GFIs1
*** not the normal pattern
The following 5 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
..is QE for the next years..
pushing stocks to new high levels and sending the EUR down.
Today we see another WW pattern developing:
From 16:00 to 16:30 green 54 pts
entry long 17:00 @ 10448
exit 18:00 @ 10430 (minus 18 points)
entry short 18:00 @10430
exit 19:00 @ 10466 (minus 36 points)
result minus 54 points
Just another test drive here in new thin air.
Next fib resistance 10530 area (161%)
GFIs1
The following 5 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Today around IFO numbers (10:00) a new pattern developed.
09:30 51 points
next candle green
entry 10:30 @ 10699
exit 11:30 @ 10714 (15 points)
short entry 11:30 @ 10714
exit 12:30 @ 10730 (-16 points9
result -1 point
GFIs1
Pattern was broken on 4th long candle..
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
We have made a robot based on your strategy to be able to back test it. We will publish it here if it is ok with you. Few questions if you don't mind:
1. 150 points comes from where? Is that some ADR times sigma based on some period of time?
2. 50 points - same question, is that some ATR for 30 minutes for some period times sigma?
3. Does second signal candle have to be shaped strongly, i.e. no large tails in the direction of trade? Some rule, for example a body must contain 70-80% of a spread?
Cheers
Trade to live. Not live to trade.
The following 4 users say Thank You to xelaar for this post:
Hi Alex - thanks for your efforts. Very welcomed! Publishing too.
1) 150 points come from my 1 Dax per day journal rule. It is a good halt for applying rules there. Was looking for a easy
system for these special days when I can not trade on my normal rule set which is much more complicated than
this Walzer one. So 150 points are the Hi/Lo within the Cash hour for the Dax future.
2) 50 points were a trigger which I saw that it works best at least during the last 3 months
3) The second candle must have same color. In fact a good body (>60%) can be more showing momentum. But I do
not have any statistical proof yet.
Feel free to ask.
Good tests
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
..we could follow a new "Wiener Walzer". Might even give a new ATH in the Dax today.
First green candle showed 71 points and the second one is not finished yet - but over 50 points
as it seems.
So I enter on 10:30 long until 11:30
then short 11:30 to 12:30
1) long entry 10:30 @ 10889
2) close 11:30 @ 10902
result plus 13 points
3) short entry @ STOPPED the second trade here as the pattern has not developed after rules
4) close 12:30 @
result
Total points: 13
GFIs1
edit: A new ATH might happen as discussed - only be cautious for taking shorts right now
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
edit 13:06 - WHAT a firework after 13:00h in five minutes
13:00 Open @ 10991, 13:05 @ 11161 = 170 points
13h was small witch day..
edit II: Volume 30 minute from 13:00: measly 23073 contracts
Here the chart of this extraordinary move which took …
there was no Wiener Walzer to start or such patter to see in both directions.
Where is the real difference then?
a) These moves are not triggered by bigger players - but of a bunch of traders around a bigger event (here Greek decision)
b) It is about setting new ATH's in thin air where not many placed orders will be found the first time
c) It is not about pushing the price really to a different area up or down.
Just watch in above chart the volume histogram to the right - it shows not big volumes along the line above
the old ATH.
For sure we will see Wiener Walzer patters again - maybe on Monday where a normal GFIs1 trade will not happen.
GFIs1
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Preferred targets for a small swing (if the reversal assumption is correct) would be around 11730 imo.
Guess we will get hints as soon as the momentary short-term overextension decreases, but probably
not before US RTH.
Your mentioned area above is reached.
Some correction is for sure needed to make the 13k soon.
As price is in thin air here and supports are invisible - the 11730 can be quickly made (within 2 - 3 days).
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Actual price was diving in hourly Kumo and sits now in the middle.
The lower Kumo support sits @ 11810 which IS the TenkanSen of the daily chart.
Next lower support (which will slightly move up a bit the next days) is now 11492
which is shifted by me to 11512 next...
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
11810 is also interesting in other techniques. Volume profile e.g. has a massive airhole starting just below 11810.
So the region 11800-11600 could become a very fast one.
The following 2 users say Thank You to choke35 for this post:
Today:
1) prev day had no high vola
2) tomorrow is last of quarter - normally pushing to new highs and polishing numbers (bonuses etc.)
3) today we see a promising WienerWalzer pattern developing
So
1st IB 74 points in 30 minutes with good volume
2nd candle 67 points
3rd candle green: entry long @ 12073
4th candle......: exit @ ??
Will a WienerWalzer pattern develop valid under these circumstances?
GFIs1
Edit: 12:15
No normal 4 long 2 short pattern did came out...
Conclusion: no NEW rule
And testing only when high vola day (+150 points) happened the day before
Good Trades!
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Yesterday during cash hours a 242 points move down:
Today no normal trade but looking for our Wiener Walzer pattern could bring some extra points.
Just looking carefully (at this special occasion) the 30min. movements on the Dax.
First drop (a heavy one). Looking at Open/Close per 30 minute candle here:
red 1) 12:00 to 12:30: 11966 to 11800 ---> 166 points ***
red 2) 12:30 to 13:00: 11800 to 11798 ---> 2 points
entry short 3) 13:00 @ 11798
exit 4) 14:00 @ 11784
result 1: 14 points
entry long 1) 14:00 @ 11784
exit long 2) 15:00 @ 11808
result 2: 24 points
Total points 14 + 24 = 38 points
GFIs1
*** Volume was 30K plus in these 30 minutes (sic!)
and of course took out a lot of SL
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
As on Friday we saw a special slip - today we had to check for a Wiener Walzer in the morning again.
It worked like a charm:
1) after a green 9h candle of 60 points
2) entry long 10h @ 11835
3) exit 11h @ 11868 (result 33 points)
4) entry short 11h @ 11868
5) exit 12h @ 11864 (result 4 points)
Total points today: 37
Good trades - looking for a normal SHORT on Wednesday..
GFIs1
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Congrats on the short part! Really nice systemic result.
The long part is a little harder (imo), because a sweeper
down - e.g. to 11830 - is still missing.
Thanks!
Still looking to see price down 11620 area - very soon.
But still conviced on this pattern trade:
Will publish next the results of the Wiener Walzer trades in a sheet
from December last year to now (5 months).
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Nice service
(Although I already have a positive impression about the pattern which
won't be shattered by minor sweeps which trigger a stop from time to time.)
After 4 months since mid december 2014 I caught some trades after high vola days
with the discussed method in this thread.
What I learned:
1) On days with ECB or IFO numbers - some patterns start - but give negative points.
NEW RULE ADD: NO trade on ECB or IFO day!
2) I have not taken all possible patterns - as they can occur when I am not watching the Dax.
There are possibilities in the evening (after cash hours) too.
So the shown results are exclusively the ones I announced in my threads.
3) For such a easy to set up system it is quite good performing. Means that I get cumulated
results in nervous markets that are much higher than in my normal 1 trade Dax thread.
4) What is most important: that both systems work together very well.
The results:
I took 18 trades in these 4 months - some days more than one Walzer.
The total points overshoot now the normal yearly result in the other thread (which is ~1050 points)
62.4 points per trade gave a total of 1124 points.
Comment: Steady points and little drawdown with very little time effort - is much welcomed - especially by @ratfink
GFIs1
The following 6 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
This week was very shaky which triggered some trades here - either with a stop on BE or
with winners.
From tomorrow Friday to next week Thursday we do have a lot to take into consideration:
1) Friday IFO day + US numbers
2) Thursday next week last of month
3) Friday 1st May no DAX traded
This all after a high volume week we had seen - with many ups and downs.
Expecting some good setups for a Walzer here.
Good trades
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
My stops in this system are very widely spread: If I can watch price at screen I will do it manually.
If sure that the price drops more - the stop is on BE.. and I leave the screen.
My job is not to sit and move the stops in fact in any case.
So the pattern WorKS or NoT.. - hence a stop.
In very volatile moments it looks not bad to trade that system fully automated.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Walzers are best at the start of a cash session. When the volume is still high.
If the 3rd candle is not following - there is no need to follow the wrong way - nor to stumble
into the next Walzer. Doing a Walzer after a successful Walzer during the same day is a good
thing - I showed it 3 months ago.
But 20 points SL is enough to step out: if the 3rd candle does not really follow - then we have
to get out.
My 30 points "noise" stop is only done in my other thread.
A Walzer should "shoot" in the same direction: if it is not, then a good money management can
protect from bigger losses.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
.
