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GFIs1 HighVola Dax Journal
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GFIs1 HighVola Dax Journal

  #61 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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Draghi's Wiener Walzer

Today we have seen a up spike in the Dax in the afternoon.
Looks like it was Draghi's announcement to get the last drop out of any money printing machine.
Draghi's announcement here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-21/ecb-said-to-propose-qe-of-50-billion-euros-a-month-through-2016.html

In fact we had a first green candle of 52 points on 15:30 to 16:00
It overshooted a lot..
The following is still winding slowly up after a deep dive..
Now - of course high risk!

16:30 entry long: 10257
17:30 exit long: 10301
17:30 entry short: 10301
18:30 exit short: 10306
result long 43 points, short -5 points
Total 38 points ***

Good trades!
GFIs1

*** not the normal pattern


Last edited by GFIs1; January 21st, 2015 at 01:19 PM.
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  #62 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Draghi's program

..is QE for the next years..
pushing stocks to new high levels and sending the EUR down.
Today we see another WW pattern developing:

From 16:00 to 16:30 green 54 pts
entry long 17:00 @ 10448
exit 18:00 @ 10430 (minus 18 points)
entry short 18:00 @10430
exit 19:00 @ 10466 (minus 36 points)
result minus 54 points

Just another test drive here in new thin air.
Next fib resistance 10530 area (161%)
GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; January 22nd, 2015 at 01:02 PM.
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  #63 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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ECB days with expected changes


Will not have a nice result for Walzers...

So we try to skip that event when things are upside down.

Happy to see though the high volumes and movements.
It is a good hint how to proceed!

GFIs1

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  #64 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Monday with fresh start long

Today around IFO numbers (10:00) a new pattern developed.
09:30 51 points
next candle green
entry 10:30 @ 10699
exit 11:30 @ 10714 (15 points)
short entry 11:30 @ 10714
exit 12:30 @ 10730 (-16 points9
result -1 point

GFIs1

Pattern was broken on 4th long candle..


Last edited by GFIs1; January 26th, 2015 at 06:34 AM.
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  #65 (permalink)
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GFIs1 View Post
Today around IFO numbers (10:00) a new pattern developed.
09:30 51 points
next candle green
entry 10:30 @ 10699
exit 11:30 @ 10714 (15 points)
short entry 11:30 @ 10714
exit 12:30 @ 10730 (-16 points9
result -1 point

GFIs1

Pattern was broken on 4th long candle..

Hi GFIs1

We have made a robot based on your strategy to be able to back test it. We will publish it here if it is ok with you. Few questions if you don't mind:
1. 150 points comes from where? Is that some ADR times sigma based on some period of time?
2. 50 points - same question, is that some ATR for 30 minutes for some period times sigma?
3. Does second signal candle have to be shaped strongly, i.e. no large tails in the direction of trade? Some rule, for example a body must contain 70-80% of a spread?

Cheers

Trade to live. Not live to trade.
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  #66 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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xelaar View Post
Hi GFIs1

We have made a robot based on your strategy to be able to back test it. We will publish it here if it is ok with you. Few questions if you don't mind:
1. 150 points comes from where? Is that some ADR times sigma based on some period of time?
2. 50 points - same question, is that some ATR for 30 minutes for some period times sigma?
3. Does second signal candle have to be shaped strongly, i.e. no large tails in the direction of trade? Some rule, for example a body must contain 70-80% of a spread?

Cheers

Hi Alex - thanks for your efforts. Very welcomed! Publishing too.

1) 150 points come from my 1 Dax per day journal rule. It is a good halt for applying rules there. Was looking for a easy
system for these special days when I can not trade on my normal rule set which is much more complicated than
this Walzer one. So 150 points are the Hi/Lo within the Cash hour for the Dax future.
2) 50 points were a trigger which I saw that it works best at least during the last 3 months
3) The second candle must have same color. In fact a good body (>60%) can be more showing momentum. But I do
not have any statistical proof yet.
Feel free to ask.
Good tests

GFIs1

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  #67 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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After Minsk results..

..we could follow a new "Wiener Walzer". Might even give a new ATH in the Dax today.

First green candle showed 71 points and the second one is not finished yet - but over 50 points
as it seems.
So I enter on 10:30 long until 11:30
then short 11:30 to 12:30

1) long entry 10:30 @ 10889
2) close 11:30 @ 10902
result plus 13 points
3) short entry @ STOPPED the second trade here as the pattern has not developed after rules
4) close 12:30 @
result
Total points: 13

GFIs1

edit: A new ATH might happen as discussed - only be cautious for taking shorts right now


Last edited by GFIs1; February 12th, 2015 at 05:43 AM.
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  #68 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Even we had some tremendous moves and spikes lately - like this of friday
https://futures.io/trading-journals/17862-gfis1-1-dax-trade-per-day-journal-189.html#post476903
there was no Wiener Walzer to start or such patter to see in both directions.

Where is the real difference then?
a) These moves are not triggered by bigger players - but of a bunch of traders around a bigger event (here Greek decision)
b) It is about setting new ATH's in thin air where not many placed orders will be found the first time
c) It is not about pushing the price really to a different area up or down.

Just watch in above chart the volume histogram to the right - it shows not big volumes along the line above
the old ATH.

For sure we will see Wiener Walzer patters again - maybe on Monday where a normal GFIs1 trade will not happen.

GFIs1

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  #69 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Posts: 3,942 since Feb 2012
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In crazy times...

even on a Wednesday the Dax does NOT go down..
but makes instead a high volume high upspike in the morning:

74 points in the first 30 minutes.. and over a hundred in 60 minutes

So we try to make a WienerWalzer instead (I need to copyright the term - LOL)

9:00 spike 74 points, 9:30 green
entry long 10:00 @ 11630
exit 11:00 @ 11679
result 1 (49 points)
entry short 11:00 @11680
exit 12:00 11710
result 2 (minus 30 points)

total points 19

even on ATH's a short within WienerWalzer is NOT recommended

GFIs1

wasn't it clear to see a new ATH?
the next will come really soon - so don't bother


Last edited by GFIs1; March 11th, 2015 at 07:17 AM.
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  #70 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Monday Walzer


Today we have a red candle at the opening with 89 points

So waiting for the next red 30 min candle to confirm and then

entry short 10:00
close short 11:00
entry long 11:00
close long 12:00

note: the long will only take place if ALL four previous candles were red.

Pattern WAS NOT CONFIRMED on 2nd candle after IB - so no trade..

GFIs1


Last edited by GFIs1; March 23rd, 2015 at 05:03 AM.
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