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GFIs1 HighVola Dax Journal

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  #201 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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The Walzer is thought to "set and forget". There is no trade management - nor stop
moving during all the trade. The SL is meant as disaster stop in a optimal distance.
If all the rules are like this - the system can work fully automated.

The motto is: Let the market play it out and cash in what the market wants to give!

GFIs1

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  #202 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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I was asked why I did not take the Walzer on friday afternoon.

Facts: First candle had open-close of 92 points and second candle of 86,5 points
while both candles had very high Hi-Lo values.
This smelled as a overreaction of Momentum which will not be consistent for the
next coming bars.
That is why I did not take that one - even we can see the signals in the chart:
first candle turned to pink and second candle got the signal (red diamond) on top.



GFIs1

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 Opstar 
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GFIs1 View Post
I was asked why I did not take the Walzer on friday afternoon.

Facts: First candle had open-close of 92 points and second candle of 86,5 points
while both candles had very high Hi-Lo values.
This smelled as a overreaction of Momentum which will not be consistent for the
next coming bars.
That is why I did not take that one - even we can see the signals in the chart:
first candle turned to pink and second candle got the signal (red diamond) on top.



GFIs1

Wasn't it also to avoid Walzer if the body is bigger than 75 pts or so?

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  #204 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Opstar View Post
Wasn't it also to avoid Walzer if the body is bigger than 75 pts or so?

yes! normally <100 points on the first.
But second was over 75 which is too much.

Just for illustration about where price is moving on the third and fourth candle.

GFIs1

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  #205 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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But some interesting erractic moves here - with a Diamond for the afternoon:



Looking forward for new lower prices.
GFIs1

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  #206 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 16:30 to 17:30

entry @ 9387
exit @ 9364
result 23 points

Patter broken - no long.

GFIs1

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  #207 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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There are 3 main questions about the Walzer - when a signal occurs.

1) Is there a "overnight Walzer"?
If a signal comes on the last candle of the future and on next day it triggers a
Walzer signal - then:
NO there is no overnight Walzer

2) Is there a Walzer on ECB days?
On days when the ECB president is talking about ECB decision and explaining the
results - normally price might move erratically:
NO there is no Walzer because it can be triggered and lands in stop loss. Such
pattern is not given under normal circumstances.

3) Is there a Walzer on triple witch days?
On triple witch days some bigger market players might come in to bring prices to
their foreseen levels with quite some effect - normally price might move erratically:
NO there is no Walzer because it can be triggered and lands in stop loss. Such
pattern is not given under normal circumstances.

Those 3 special rules are here to omit negative results.

GFIs1

PS: will update initial post 1 of this thread with that addendum.

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  #208 (permalink)
alexk1968
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Good morning,

yesterday at 14:00 first candle 52 pts, 14:30 second candle 20 pts and you didn't take the walzer (correct as afterwards proved).

Do you have a minimum percentage for the second candle in relation to the first in order to take (or reject) the walzer, or your decision is based on other criteria too (overreaction, move possible exhausted, shape of the candle etc..)?

thanks,
alex

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  #209 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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alexk1968 View Post
Good morning,

yesterday at 14:00 first candle 52 pts, 14:30 second candle 20 pts and you didn't take the walzer (correct as afterwards proved).

Do you have a minimum percentage for the second candle in relation to the first in order to take (or reject) the walzer, or your decision is based on other criteria too (overreaction, move possible exhausted, shape of the candle etc..)?

thanks,
alex

Good morning Alex

The signal came in as you state. But I decided this time to not take the trade as price touched the upper cloud of 30min.
Right there the cloud is very thick - we have seen that this support was only overgaped during the night.
A rare occasion for that Walzer - but decision was good.

Good trades
GFIs1

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  #210 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Got the signal triggered for 21:00 short after the Fed Slip in the Dax since 20:00

entry short 21:00 @ 9772
exit 22:00 @ 9757
result 15 measly points - momentum was down as well the volumes.

volumes low

GFIs1

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  #211 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short
10:00 @ 9620
11:00 @ 9616
result 4 points

no long trade after broken pattern


GFIs1

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  #212 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Today the signal for short came from 14:00 to 15:00.
Unfortunately the first candle was 50 points and the second one body of 74
after a high low of 106 points in 30 minutes.
That smelled fishy!
As the year low was killed - I decided to not take that Walzer.
The momentum was on the second 30 minutes. The rebound came right there.

GFIs1

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  #213 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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After some missed Walzers of last week (was in warmer area without any computer)
I see a new entry today:

Dax short 11:00 to 12:00

entry 11:00 @ 9161
exit 12:00 @ 9144
result 17 points

long 12:00 to 13:00
entry @ 9144
exit @ 9153
result 9 points

Total points: 26

GFIs1

PS: Update of missed Walzers will follow

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  #214 (permalink)
alexk1968
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GFIs1 View Post
After some missed Walzers of last week (was in warmer area without any computer)
I see a new entry today:

Dax short 11:00 to 12:00

entry 11:00 @ 9161
exit 12:00 @ 9144
result 17 points

long 12:00 to 13:00
entry @ 9144
exit @ 9153
result 9 points

Total points: 26

GFIs1

PS: Update of missed Walzers will follow


Hi,

was your stop not hit at 12:46 (low 9111.5) ? Mine was (and I am using Tradersworkstation from Interactive Brokers).
Have you maybe increased your SL pts. to more than 30?

thanks,
alex

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  #215 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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alexk1968 View Post
Hi,

was your stop not hit at 12:46 (low 9111.5) ? Mine was (and I am using Tradersworkstation from Interactive Brokers).
Have you maybe increased your SL pts. to more than 30?

thanks,
alex

Hi alex

That was stop fishing which is found usually in the week of triple witch.
Or witch week and one holiday.
I use a 40 point stop on those weeks as some special movements on low volume
might get you out.
Sorry for mixing up.

To make that one good: go short now - and stay in until 15:00.

Good trades!
GFIs1

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  #216 (permalink)
alexk1968
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GFIs1 View Post
Hi alex

That was stop fishing which is found usually in the week of triple witch.
Or witch week and one holiday.
I use a 40 point stop on those weeks as some special movements on low volume
might get you out.
Sorry for mixing up.

To make that one good: go short now - and stay in until 15:00.

Good trades!
GFIs1

Don't be sorry!!

stop fishing happens all the times (regardless if you put stop to 20,30,40,50 pts. or more...).
I just want to understand clearly your rules and exceptions.

thanks,
alex

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  #217 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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This morning some bullish movement lead to a new signal:

Dax long 11:00 to 12:00
entry @ 9270
exit @ 9299
result +29 points

Dax short 12:00 to 13:00
entry @ 9299
exit @ 9285
result +14 points

Total points 43

volume good

GFIs1

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  #218 (permalink)
alexk1968
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Good morning,

Walzer taken or not at 10:00? (conditions are ok according to the rules)

thanks,
alex

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  #219 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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alexk1968 View Post
Good morning,

Walzer taken or not at 10:00? (conditions are ok according to the rules)

thanks,
alex

Unfortunately I am all day out of the house.
The Walzer started according to the rules @ 10:00 - but would have been stopped out already...

Anyway good trades
GFIs1

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  #220 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Even it is tempting - there is no Walzer confirmed:
Yesterday's Hi/Lo range was only 125 points.

GFIs1

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  #221 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Started a new Walzer Dax short

entry short 11:00 @ 9733
exit 12:00 @ 9717
result +16 points

entry long 12:00 @ 9717
exit 13:00 @ 9751
result +34 points

Total points: 50

GFIs1

very rare to have a Walzer over the daily trade...

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  #222 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Triple Witch Week started with a new Walzer

Dax long 9:00 to 10:00
entry @ 9959
exit @
result

GFIs1

edit: NO Walzer - got a wrong signal (see below)

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  #223 (permalink)
alexk1968
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GFIs1 View Post
Triple Witch Week started with a new Walzer

Dax long 9:00 to 10:00
entry @ 9959
exit @
result

GFIs1

Good morning,

If I remember well, in order to start a walzer you need two 30min candles, first body bigger than 50 pts. and then enter at the third candle.

Today we have: first (8:00 - 20 pts), second (8:30 - 69 pts).

Also, rules do not apply now, in order to start a walzer at 9:00 - 9959.

Some spacial rules for today maybe?

thanks,
alex

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  #224 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Good morning @alexk1968

..very true - no Walzer.
Had a data stream error which triggered the Walzer.
Reimporting the data it showed no signal @9:00h

Thanks
GFIs1

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  #225 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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New Walzer long

entry 10:30 @ 10057
exit 11:30 @ 10079
result 22 points

then pattern broken

GFIs1

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  #226 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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Dax short 9:00 to 10:00

entry @ 9908
exit @ 9874
result 34 points

pattern broken for second leg

GFIs1

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  #227 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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A new long signal came up:
Dax long 10:30 to 11:30

entry @ 9892
exit @ 9910
result 18 points

then pattern broken

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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The first 3 months had 12 Walzer - listed in this journal here.
There were some more signals which I did not trade or not take because of
time restriction.

Result:
12 positive completed Walzer with a total of 473 points since 1. January 2016

Details:
Walzer gain range was from 4 points to 176.

Five Walzer were completed with both legs (first up and then down or first down
and then up), 6 Walzer only had first leg and then the pattern broke and the
second trade did not happen. One Walzer ended with only one leg and ended
at the end of the day (no overnight trade allowed).

Average points per Walzer: 39

Handling:
The signals are automated. They are distributed by SMS to a mobile phone.
This omits screen time. The signal is generated 10 minutes before the trade
starts. Programmed the part to send multiple SMS to different numbers.
Some extra code is needed to fully automate the execution as well as the
detection of a broken pattern.
That is foreseen as the next step. Will update on this.

Discussion:
The Walzer is working and documented here since 15 December 2014.
The condition of the market was very different over time. Even under those
circumstances the pattern lets squeeze some points out of directional moves.
The SL settings with 30 points is not to optimize as it was triggered only
once in half a Walzer this year (only on the second leg: finally that Walzer
was still positive).
This shows how robust it is to trade the trend when strong moves happen.

GFIs1
Thanks for all inputs

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  #229 (permalink)
alexk1968
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Hi,

any particular reason for not taking the walzer at 12:00 - 9856? (stopped anyway)

thanks,
alex

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  #230 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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alexk1968 View Post
Hi,

any particular reason for not taking the walzer at 12:00 - 9856? (stopped anyway)

thanks,
alex

No normal day: After a long weekend the daily GFIs1 trade should be stable.
The dropdwon with stop out of the daily trade it was obvious that something
smelled fishy. It came out that the hijacked plane was the reason for the
sharp Dax down.
So not risk to jump in a shuffled market with the Walzer.
That was a good decision.

GFIs1

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alexk1968
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GFIs1 View Post
No normal day: After a long weekend the daily GFIs1 trade should be stable.
The dropdwon with stop out of the daily trade it was obvious that something
smelled fishy. It came out that the hijacked plane was the reason for the
sharp Dax down.
So not risk to jump in a shuffled market with the Walzer.
That was a good decision.

GFIs1

The news for the hijacked plane came before the 9:00 dax upthrust...

I think it had nothing to do with the 11:00 downwards move. (dax just fell...)

Although the Walzer pattern works in the long run (I have also read your last post about that), there is a lot of subjectivity (guess) in the decision to take the Walzer or not.

Do you think, is there a way to bypass this subjectivity (also the misbelief to sell in the oversold area after two big red 30min candles, or buy in the overbought area after two big green 30min candles)?

thanks,
alex

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  #232 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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A long signal came this morning:
but the Wednesday rule says at the same time short.
As not both trades make sense - I did not take the long Walzer today.

GFIs1

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  #233 (permalink)
 GFIs1 
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To the new readers/followers of this journal:

A Walzer is not seen very often as it has very restricted rules for the first entry.
The previous day has to have a range (during cash hours) of more than 150 points.
Only with this a Walzer is allowed and gives a signal eventually. The signal only comes
up when the market moves fast in one direction during one hour. No overnight trades
allowed also.

For today we have the rule for a Walzer day positive as yesterday the range was 169 points.
This morning looks like we might see a gap down to yesterday - or starting 9:00 at the
lower range of yesterday (seen in the afternoon).

Waiting for stronger directional move and we might see and trade after the signal in one
direction for the first move and eventually a second trade in the opposite direction if the
rules give green light for it too.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This morning at 9:00 the Dax opened with a gap down.
In the first 30 minutes = Initial Balance we have seen only 40 points from
open to close but a very high volume of > 13000 future contracts.
No Walzer first candle for a signal generated yet.
As the volume was high and many traders got out of the market it is possible
to see some more slip in the Dax today.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Market heading down with no real slip today - so no Walzer until now.
But the strong resistance of former cloud (1hour) @ 9584 is now killed
in after hour session.
This means some price down to 93xx and lower are in reach.
I see that scenario for Thursday because we had 2 red days - which means
for Wednesday some up momentum is highly probable in the first half day.

In total some lower price levels are to be tested - especially the January
Low of 9314. If broken a waterfall is not too far away

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Today in the first half of the session we have seen already 233 points range in
the Dax. Good volume of over 66k contracts already.

This triggers the first step for some Walzer possibility tomorrow...

Good trades

GFIs1

attention: prices are very volatile to very different volumes every half hour...
Staying at the sidelines when not sure to enter is the best recommendation!

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 GFIs1 
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Yesterday's trigger (see upper post) brings a Walzer possibility.
Looks like a new Walzer is due early today:
First leg (IB 9:00 to 9:30) brought 53 points down.
Second leg in development in the same direction.
IB volume good.

Let's see...

Foreseen entry short:
entry 10:00 @
exit 11:00 @

edit 10:00
No Walzer started - second candle only had 3 points in the same direction.
This means a stronger move down is not ready.
No signal occured as for that the second candle should have a body of min.
15 points...

edit 11:00 PROOF of the System
First hour would have given a minus of 9 points and pattern broken.
Again the rules are good and prevented from a eventual loss.
Waiting for the right setup is best money management!

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Long signal for Walzer:

17:30 entry @ 9794
18:30 exit @ 9795
result 1 point

Pattern broken - no second leg.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Discussion on this thread

Interestingly the last Walzer that came up is exactly 4 weeks back.
Such a hole we have seen last year around the same time.
We had many strong or very strong moves since then but never
a normal Walzer setup came into play.
That is something to mention: Markets were not following normal patterns.
Heavy indecision, very low or very high peak volumes but never for more
than a moment led to tough to read price movements.

GFIs1

PS - after mentioned above hole we could count on seven consecutive
Walzers in a row end of April 2015

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 GFIs1 
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As we are in the FIO journal contest 2016 I would like to review shortly
the total results of both journals here - updated since 2011 and
late 2014 respectively.

The GFIs1 system was introduced in 2011 and the Walzer came in 2014.
Both systems were positive over the periods.

Overview:



For those who would like to give a thank in the competition thread:
Here is the direct link in case and thanks for pushing the button!



As said - the prize will be handed over to next candidate if I win one of the
prizes offered by Mike and TST.
I am humbled because I got so many thanks already in my journals.

Thanks to all the followers - the journal kept me always busy online and disciplined

GFIs1

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 bobwest 
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GFIs1 View Post
For those who would like to give a thank in the competition thread:
Here is the direct link in case and thanks for pushing the button!

Already did, of course.

Bob.

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 GFIs1 
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Today a Walzer was not foreseen: Friday Hi/Lo was 105 points and did not really open
possibility for a Walzer.

But indeed a full pattern did occur - from 10:00 to 11:00 short and 11:00 to 12:00 long.
A theoretical result of 110 points came in.

Does not count here.



But rules will be retested: Price on first candle was in cloud of 30min and 60min.
A quick backtest might give some other occurences.

GFIs1

Q&A: YES: The Walzer pattern in above chart is automatically painted (inclusive SMS
sent to phone)

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 GFIs1 
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A new Walzer pattern is developing.
Even yesterday the range of Hi/Lo during cash hour was <150 points today the first short
candle started in 30min Kumo with 59 points (Open/Close).

Highly probable that a short Walzer starts like this:

entry 10:30 @ 10216
exit 11:30 @ 10211
result 5 points

pattern broken - no second leg

Volumes high (IB)

GFIs1

discussion: momentum was good at first - but after 156 points down
the sellers were no longer dictating.

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 GFIs1 
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Here we see the signals as well as the starting candle 10:30:



Development looks not bad
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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The first leg did not end as expected:
We have seen a green instead of red second candle.
This lead to the broken pattern like shown here:



GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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A new Walzer is at the horizon after price crossed again the 10k marker.

Starting Dax short from 10:00 to 11:00 if confirmed

10:00 entry @ 9972
11:00 exit @ 9983
result -11 points
Pattern broken - no 2nd leg.

GFIs1

PS: Rule definition refined
Walzer only valid when yesterday Hi/Lo < 150 points AND
First Walzer candle starts within Kumo.
Today this was not fulfilled...

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 GFIs1 
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Dax Walzer long 10:30 to 11:30

entry @ 9997
exit @ 10052
result 55 points

no second leg - because of strong momentum

DISCUSSION in next post

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This morning we had a very strong upmove out of 1h Kumo.
That caused two long signals in a row - which shows quite strong momentum.
Getting out after 1 hour was correct - but taking a second leg short for one hour
was not good as the momentum distorted the Walzer in time.
Result of 55 points was not bad within this pattern.



GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Today a dive and a rally came into play... ~*200 points.
In the afternoon while the short dive a new Walzer pattern showed up:

Took Dax short 16:30 to 17:30 after signal

entry @ 9902
exit @ 9859
result 43 points

If pattern not broken then long 17:30 to 18:30
entry @ 9859
exit @ 9864
result 5 points

Total points 48

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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A long Walzer is on the radar.
From 16:30 if pattern finishes fine...

GFIs1

No pattern occured.
Discussion tomorrow with chart...

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 GFIs1 
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This week we had seen a lot of very strong movements around the 10000 in the Dax.
Here I show a bigger picture of the week with a 2 hour chart. It shows very clear that
price went from Tuesday to Thursday into the cloud. Being in there it was like a flight
on sight without sight... Price was bouncing from edge to edge with extreme span.
A really dangerous zone - and no direction was to detect.

THIS is WHERE you can LOSE a lot of MONEY!



Interestingly the Walzer one of the week came on Monday (outside the cloud) and two
Walzer on Thursday (within the cloud). I took only the Monday and the second one of Thursday.

As we can see in the results (postings above) there were only positive trades despite
that very difficult week!
Thanks to discipline it was a good moment to see where gains can be collected without
staying in the high risk zone.

Good weekend
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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A new Walzer came up this morning in the heavy volatile market:

Dax short 12:00 to 13:00

entry @ 9848
exit @ 9837
result 11 points

eventually long 13:00 to 14:00 (hopefully)

entry @ 9837
exit @ 9846
result 9 points

Total points 20

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This afternoon after US numbers the price was tumbling (see chart with Fib Spirals)

Walzer pattern was down first and on second leg long.

Dax short 15:30 to 16:30
entry @ 10141
exit @ 10049
result 92 points

Dax long 16:30 to 17:30
entry @ 10049
exit @ 10098
result 49 points

Walzer result: 141 points

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Second best Walzer this year:



A pic says more than all the rules.

GFIs1

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alexk1968
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Good morning,

to walz or not to walz?

Now is the right timing to answer...

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 GFIs1 
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yes - Walzer signal came up - very high IB and following candle, each ~ 12k

Walzer short 10:00 to 11:00
entry @ 10086
exit @ 10102
result -16 points

no second leg

GFIs1

edit 11:00: the down trend is still there - things will move within the next days
fervently before triple witch Friday next week.
Good trades!

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 GFIs1 
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Strong volume today (Brexit fears....)

Short Walzer 10:00 to 11:00
entry @ 9936
exit @ 9913
result 23
volumes high!

2nd leg long 11:00 to 12:00
entry @ 9913
exit @ 9883 (SL)
result -30 points

Walzer result -7 points

GFIs1

Edit 11:11
Next goal 9838...

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:30 to 11:30

entry @ 9443
exit @ 9473 (SL)
result -30 points

Direction was right - but vola killed the trade

Afternoon Walzer Dax short 16:30 to 17:30
entry @ 9274
exit @ 9255
result 19 points

Dax long 17:30 to 18:30
entry @ 9255
exit @ 9294
result 42 points

GFIs1

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alexk1968
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Dax short 10:30 to 11:30

entry @ 9443
exit @ 9473 (SL)
result -30 points

Direction was right - but vola killed the trade

Afternoon Walzer Dax short 16:30 to 17:30
entry @ 9274
exit @ 9255
result 19 points

Dax long 17:30 to 18:30
entry @ 9255
exit @ 9294
result 42 points

GFIs1

Good morning,

I thought pattern was broken at 17:30 (4th candle was green) for the second (long) leg to take...

thanks,
alex

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 GFIs1 
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alexk1968 View Post
I thought pattern was broken at 17:30 (4th candle was green) for the second (long) leg to take...
alex

Well seen!
Price was turning in the last half hour of cash trading to long. As my backtests showed in such cases
(though not many occured) - the price will continue after cash hours in the same direction.
Therefore the long was taken.

Hope this helps
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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See the signals:



GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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While the first 6 months were very shaky and always danced around the
10000 points in the DAX the two systems with journals here were performing
very differently:

The GFIs1 1 Dax trade per day system:

Result: -14 points
Trades taken: 63
Best week: 201 points
Best trade: 110 points


The GFIs1 Walzer system:

Result: 740 points
Full Walzer taken: 10
Half Walzer taken: 13
Total Walzer taken: 23

Best Walzer made 176 points on 11th of January 2016

GFIs1

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alexk1968
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good morning,

walzer taken or not (11:30, 9334) ?

thanks,
alex

(sent 11:40)

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 GFIs1 
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alexk1968 View Post
good morning,

walzer taken or not (11:30, 9334) ?

thanks,
alex

(sent 11:40)

..not taken - signal came but was not at the computer
anyway shaky moments and again at the January low
like the Brexit dive did as well.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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I was asked why the long Walzer signal @ 11:30 was not taken:
Because first strong up candle started in Kumo.

There may be a short Walzer in the afternoon - depending on US start.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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No Walzer occured in July.

Walzer result since week 1 2016: still 740 points

GFIs1

PS:
1) System still works well
2) Expecting rising volume from mid August which should result in more Walzer patterns

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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 10:00 to 11:00

entry @ 10214
exit @ 10185
result 29 points

then pattern broken - no second leg

GFIs1

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alexk1968
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GFIs1 View Post
Dax short 10:00 to 11:00

entry @ 10214
exit @ 10185
result 29 points

then pattern broken - no second leg

GFIs1

Hi,

first candle's body (9:00) was only 33 pts. < 50. Why to take the walzer on the third (10:00) candle?

thanks,
alex

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 GFIs1 
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Signal came for 17:30 long

long 17:30 to 18:30
entry @ 10697 (ATH)
exit @ 10667 SL
result -30 points

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Yesterday started with low volume and gave some interesting moves - made by
market boosters with no resistances.
Today EZW numbers 11:00h made a spike of 77.5 points up in the 30m candle.
But then it was finished and price is coming back.

Rule of thumb:
1) in low vol weeks - Walzers are not easily formed
2) quick spikes are not base for a pattern
3) remember the previous day rule with range

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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A new short signal came up in the last candles.
This one is not confirmed as yesterday the high/low range rule was not fulfilled.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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BOTH

are a real hate relation!

During US elections indices do not behave normally (as we could see).
That means for more than 6 months before final results - the Dax does not move
normally - but:
HANDBRAKE was always ON and no Walzer was to be seen.

As soon as this party is over we can be sure to see new "normal" moves that can
generate whoppy Walzer moves with good results.

Don't hesitate to watch new profitable pattern trades coming up soon!

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Happy New Year

After quite a long pause before and after US elections last year we are hungry to see
a more vivid Dax with more spikes again
Exactly what makes this (sleepy) thread so interesting.

As the first trading day (yesterday) made quite a jump up we can for sure see the
normality of a Walzer again. Range yesterday was 178 points.
Watching things for a new Walzer pretty soon.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 JohnS 
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Happy New Year

After quite a long pause before and after US elections last year we are hungry to see
a more vivid Dax with more spikes again
Exactly what makes this (sleepy) thread so interesting.

As the first trading day (yesterday) made quite a jump up we can for sure see the
normality of a Walzer again. Range yesterday was 178 points.
Watching things for a new Walzer pretty soon.

Good trades
GFIs1

Happy New Year @GFIs1, best wishes for the new year for you and your Walzer and One Trade a Day systems!

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 GFIs1 
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Some main restrictions are history now to hopefully see some Walzer in the Dax soon again:
1) US election year
2) Brexit
3) French elections
4) Upcoming german elections
5) Trump 100 days
6) etc...

Now the DJ had new ATH some weeks back as well as the Dax today.
Dax made 167 points range.
THAT is the new (and old) ground good for the Walzer.

Better late than never

Watch tomorrow what happens!
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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The latest development with stretching indices - ATH in USA and sideways Dax - while the currency pair
EURUSD is widening, we can see more activities in the Dax as well.
So I had 2 Walzer signals in the last days. But the conditions were not all ok - like the previous day range.

This happens all in holiday July/starting August. For sure when volume is going up after holidays we might see
some good Walzer coming again.

Happy weekend
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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After Kim's rocket up the markets tumbled - Dax too.
I tried to catch this fish and after the signal I traded

1) Dax short 9:30 to 10:30
entry @ 11974
exit @ 11918
result 56 points
2) Dax long 10:30 to 11:30
entry @ 11918
exit @ 11893 after first 30m - Walzer did not work on second leg
result -25 points

Walzer result 31 points
Does not count here - as the Walzer previous day range was not fulfilled.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Watching a year of silence on my beloved Walzer system I am just watching other possibilities and found:



Maybe with such vola and low volume the Walzer might be applied on cryptocurencies? Of course the future of one of them.

I will try to use the silent days here to make a test.

Happy New Year all!
Thanks to my followers.
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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After more than a year without any Walzer pattern it looks like the volatility is back - and with it the Walzer too!

First Walzer in this year:



We had a good situation (announced in my other thread) and the day started during cash hours really with the Walzer.
Total points (see above) gave 41 points.
The total points since the Walzer journal here - started 2014 - are 2648

For sure some more Walzer in the run pretty soon.

If you are not familiar with the Walzer rules - please read post #1 in this thread - thanks!

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Illustration of the first Walzer 2018 in the chart here:



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 GFIs1 
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Walzer Dax long 10:00 to 11:00

entry @ 11950
exit @ 12011
result 61 points

Dax short 11:00 to 12:00

entry @ 12010
exit @ 12020
result -10 points

Total points: 51

GFIs1

PS: pattern broken after first leg - recognized here too late

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 GFIs1 
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a normal GFIs1 trade will happen...

After a nice up gap this morning.

Walzer results 2018 (2 trades): 102 points

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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A new Walzer started short/long

Short 10:00 to 11:00
entry @ 11913
exit @ 11849
result 64 points

Long 11:00 to 12:00
entry @ 11851
exit @ 11928
result 77 poins

Walzer result: 141 points

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 GFIs1 
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Here the pic of today's Walzer:



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 GFIs1 
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16:35: Looks not bad - we will see in 25 min. if a down/up Walzer might start @ 17:00h

Start short 17:00 18:00
entry @ 11780
exit @ 11789
result -9 points

no long 18:00 to 19:00 - pattern broken

GFIs1

illustration:


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 GFIs1 
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Dax short 17:00 to 18:00
entry @ 11565
exit @ 11574
result -9 points

eventually Dax long 18:00 to 19:00
No long trade - pattern broken

Walzer result -9 points

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This year had just 5 Walzer signals.

What is interesting:
Yesterday the Walzer signal came in late. Start from 17:00
The previous Walzer was on March 26. Same start from 17:00
Same price level 11.5k vs. resp. 11.7k
Same result with -9 points

Conclusion: might skip those Walzer that are swimming into after hours?

Well the good news is that those 5 Walzer gave 225 points within 2018.
To be clear - 2017 - had NO Walzer signal at all

Looking forward to harvest some more with this good volatility.

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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Today we got a IB (9:00 to 9:30) of 215 points

The Walzer pattern came up:

Dax long 9:30 to 10:30
entry @ 11582
exit @ 11625
result 43 points

Dax short 10:30 to 11:30
entry @ 11625
exit 11598
result 27 points

Walzer result 70 points

Walzer points since week 1/2018: 295 points
6 Walzer trades taken so far for 2018

GFIs1

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alexk1968
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GFIs1 View Post
Today we got a IB (9:00 to 9:30) of 215 points

The Walzer pattern came up:

Dax long 9:30 to 10:30
entry @ 11582
exit @ 11625
result 43 points

Dax short 10:30 to 11:30
entry @ 11625
exit 11598
result 27 points

Walzer result 70 points

Walzer points since week 1/2018: 295 points
6 Walzer trades taken so far for 2018

GFIs1


9.00 to 9.30 (hi-lo) is 98.5 pts, but anyway...

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 GFIs1 
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Dax started again with a down gap. Price came down to <11k.
So I took the next Walzer:

Dax Short 10:00 to 11:00
entry @ 10987
exit @ 10906
result 81 points

Dax long 11:00 to 12:00
entry @ 10906
exit @ 10926
result 20 points

Walzer result 101 points

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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well done: 101 points in 2 hours
Walzer result this year: 396 points
Total Walzer result in this thread: 3003 points

next Walzer will come for sure!

Good trades

GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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This is for sure not an easy task. The question is always "when will the price reverse?"
The Walzer does it quite smoothly. And especially time predicted - not price orientated.

Therefore some Walzer pattern watching is on the profitable side.

Good Walzer trades!
GFIs1


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 Rugosoft 
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Chapeau!!!


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 GFIs1 
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Rugosoft View Post
Chapeau!!!

Sent from my iPhone using futures.io

Thanks @Rugosoft for the flowers

In fact I am aware of two upcoming very volatile years 2019 and 2020.
This is the best base for the Walzer of course.
Might adapt one new rule for it.

Happy trading
GFIs1

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 GFIs1 
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My Walzer taken in 2018



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 GFIs1 
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Test if the pattern trade is still working:

Dax Short 10:00 to 11:00
entry @ 13024
exit @ 12981
result 43 points

Dax long 11:00 to 12:00
entry @ 12979
exit @ 12949 (SL)
result -30 points

Walzer result 13 points

Comment: strong pressure on the stock markets are hindering this pattern. As previewed in the other thread the stocks are right now in a move down as a larger correction.

GFIs1

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 ales19 
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Hi @GFIs1 , are you still using the same setup/procedure as outlined in the first post in this thread?

Cheers

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 GFIs1 
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ales19 View Post
Hi @GFIs1 , are you still using the same setup/procedure as outlined in the first post in this thread?

Cheers

Hi @ales19

Yes - the rules are still the same. And they work!
You can get the summary post of the 7 Walzer 2020 (until today) taken in my other thread here:

This states that every Walzer made more than 100 points in average.
If you compare the result of 2018 (some posts above) then you see the result per Walzer nearly doubled.

As we know that the Walzer works only in high vola times this was a good year for the pattern.

Good trades
GFIs1

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 ales19 
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GFIs1 View Post
Hi @ales19

Yes - the rules are still the same. And they work!
You can get the summary post of the 7 Walzer 2020 (until today) taken in my other thread here:

This states that every Walzer made more than 100 points in average.
If you compare the result of 2018 (some posts above) then you see the result per Walzer nearly doubled.

As we know that the Walzer works only in high vola times this was a good year for the pattern.

Good trades
GFIs1


Are you trying to tell me I am a bit late to the party?

Cheers for the reply by the way. Just to confirm, I assume it is best if I follow the other thread then?

Cheers

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