The news for the hijacked plane came before the 9:00 dax upthrust...
I think it had nothing to do with the 11:00 downwards move. (dax just fell...)
Although the Walzer pattern works in the long run (I have also read your last post about that), there is a lot of subjectivity (guess) in the decision to take the Walzer or not.
Do you think, is there a way to bypass this subjectivity (also the misbelief to sell in the oversold area after two big red 30min candles, or buy in the overbought area after two big green 30min candles)?
A Walzer is not seen very often as it has very restricted rules for the first entry.
The previous day has to have a range (during cash hours) of more than 150 points.
Only with this a Walzer is allowed and gives a signal eventually. The signal only comes
up when the market moves fast in one direction during one hour. No overnight trades
For today we have the rule for a Walzer day positive as yesterday the range was 169 points.
This morning looks like we might see a gap down to yesterday - or starting 9:00 at the
lower range of yesterday (seen in the afternoon).
Waiting for stronger directional move and we might see and trade after the signal in one
direction for the first move and eventually a second trade in the opposite direction if the
rules give green light for it too.
This morning at 9:00 the Dax opened with a gap down.
In the first 30 minutes = Initial Balance we have seen only 40 points from
open to close but a very high volume of > 13000 future contracts.
No Walzer first candle for a signal generated yet.
As the volume was high and many traders got out of the market it is possible
to see some more slip in the Dax today.
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Market heading down with no real slip today - so no Walzer until now.
But the strong resistance of former cloud (1hour) @ 9584 is now killed
in after hour session.
This means some price down to 93xx and lower are in reach.
I see that scenario for Thursday because we had 2 red days - which means
for Wednesday some up momentum is highly probable in the first half day.
In total some lower price levels are to be tested - especially the January
Low of 9314. If broken a waterfall is not too far away
Yesterday's trigger (see upper post) brings a Walzer possibility.
Looks like a new Walzer is due early today:
First leg (IB 9:00 to 9:30) brought 53 points down.
Second leg in development in the same direction.
IB volume good.
Foreseen entry short:
entry 10:00 @
exit 11:00 @
No Walzer started - second candle only had 3 points in the same direction.
This means a stronger move down is not ready.
No signal occured as for that the second candle should have a body of min.
edit 11:00 PROOF of the System
First hour would have given a minus of 9 points and pattern broken.
Again the rules are good and prevented from a eventual loss.
Waiting for the right setup is best money management!
Last edited by GFIs1; April 12th, 2016 at 05:03 AM.
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Interestingly the last Walzer that came up is exactly 4 weeks back.
Such a hole we have seen last year around the same time.
We had many strong or very strong moves since then but never
a normal Walzer setup came into play.
That is something to mention: Markets were not following normal patterns.
Heavy indecision, very low or very high peak volumes but never for more
than a moment led to tough to read price movements.
PS - after mentioned above hole we could count on seven consecutive
Walzers in a row end of April 2015
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