After the first non working pattern this morning - I was no longer online
And as mentioned before - tomorrow US numbers 14:30 plus FED in the evening:
there is no Walzer to take - because we know that this eventually bigger moves
are not to predict nor we can follow by the known easy Walzer pattern.
GFIs1
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Ichimoku is a powerful indicator. The cloud is a zone with volatile character.
Normal patterns are to find outside the cloud. But inside they do not work
as thought. This makes me pointing out that a Walzer when price is within
daily cloud will not been taken.
No Walzer today - just waiting to see price getting out of the cloud again.
GFIs1
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Hi
Of course the Walzer will be taken again..
But price is in daily Kumo which means undecision and normal patterns do not work.
As price is getting out of Kumo (I see 90% probability south) then the Walzer
pattern and my trades will be taken again.
Just being patient means not losing money right here.
Good trades
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Today a constellation came up which shows a Working walzer again:
First 30 min. candle was >115 points with up gap -> means a very
strong move with clear Walzer pattern:
10:00 long @ 11806
11:00 exit long @ 11840 (result +34 points)
11:00 entry short @ 11840
12:00 exit short @ 11800 (result +40 points)
Walzer result: 74 points
GFIs1
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Here are the entries / exits and the comments about - including
trading only in VERY liquid markets in the morning - and later
no more trades as volume is much to low:
GFIs1
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As price is now (nearly definitely) out south of Kumo - the rules allow
to watch for new Walzer patterns again.
For sure we should watch Monday and Wednesday carefully.
Let's see!
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
thanks a lot for your excellent strategy. I've read the entire thread during the w-end and will now start with forward testing. I am somehow lost on your stop loss approach - is it a moving target, sometimes 20, 30 or even more ticks?
In addition, where could I get the indicators for Kumo clouds?
I otherwise hate dancing, but this Waltz of yours is making me extatic...
Kind Regards,
Quixil
The following user says Thank You to Quxil for this post:
Stop is normally 30 points..
But if pattern is not playing out - I do not make the second part of the Walzer.
As you can read in some posts.
The KUMO or cloud is part of the ICHIMOKU Kinko Hyo indicator. It is a
japanese indi with quite a lot of information. For my decision if to take
a trade or not - I am only using the cloud information in the daily chart.
firstly congrats for another winner today! I just want to be sure I understand you right - if you go long and you get two consecutive 30 min red bars, but you were not stopped (e.g. 30 ticks), you still don't "dance" the second part of the Walzer and go short?
.. to be clear: the FIRST BODY of a candle needs to be >50 points.. the second one in the same color.
Then entry for two candles in the SAME direction - and TURN around for another 2 candles...
Stops I need only on first Walzer step.. - if it turns away I am out and do not take the second step.
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
A green candle of 79 points from 15:00 started - a second green candle
Walzer II
entry long 16:00 @ 11392
exit 17:00 @ 11470
result 78 points
entry short 17:00 @ 11469 EDIT: prolonging 30 minutes - as 5th candle was green too
exit 18:30 @ 11463
result 6 points
Total points: 78 + 6 points = 84 points
******** Points today
68 (trade I) + 84 (trade II) = 152 points
GFIs1
Comment:
very strange day with a max. Dax up of 4% !!! Crazy!!!
And all this ONLY driven by little Greece...
Obviously the DAX is reacting very much on political influence.
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
1) This is easy: Walzer is done if previous day has a range of >150 points.. no upper limit..
2) And GFIs1 One trade per day - is above 250 points range of previous day as normal.
So we have a VERY rare occasion - to have both triggers running :-)
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
No I haven't yet! Would be easier to program than my other system.
I am only doing that for fun.
Maybe I set up an alarm to measure the 30min bodies and give a trigger
to take the first trade.
For this I will reactivate my old chart program with these possibilities.
Have a great weekend
GFIs1
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Even the volatility in the last weeks was great - NO real Walzer patterns occured.
Looks good for the next 3 months that with more normal trading days some
Walzer shows up again.
Greece theme is no longer a threat - now other players like China or Germany
are on the focus.
Good trades
GFIs1
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Here the results of both GFIs1 journals from January 2nd to now
updated for Big Mike Challenge 2015 - $750 in prizes.
Each journal is about 1 Dax Future.
Every point is worth 25 Euro.
The daily Dax journal (link to post 2222) :
And the GFIs1 …
As in this crazy volatile last weeks some trades happened again - some with clear stop losses
I present here the latest trades:
Total points since December 2014: 1666 on one contract
gain per contract and point 25 EUR
total gain in EUR per contract: 41650
contract investment around 12k
win percentage: ~350%
looks like this pattern works
GFIs1
The following 9 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
First the body of the first candle (10:30) was 41 pts<50 which is your mark. (high-low was greater). Did you take the trade outside your rule, or have you changed the rule for the waltzer?
Second, with what criteria you skipped the second leg (long) of your system? Ok, it was a little bit obvious that the market will not rebound on 12:30. Was it feeling, or some special rule I am not aware of.
Furthermore, congratulations for your patter recognition ability and your overall approach for dax trading.
My only remark is that you may consider closing partially your winning position earlier (on some critical technical point maybe), in order not to leave too many points on the table at the end of time.
regards,
alex
The following user says Thank You to alexk1968 for this post:
Well seen: I was only taking 11:00 to 11:30 candle and jumped in 30 minutes to early...
That candle was the trigger.
Not really a change of rules - but a "mistake" in time on my side ;-)
Taking the "right red candle" - had given some more points.
Was a bit under pressure with phone calls that morning.
Second: As we had most volatile times with high volume - I have seen that the last four Walzers
did not work on second leg. This was my decision to get out on time when some points were still
on the table. Just to two posts back on my summary - the Walzer was crippled in all attempts.
I hope of course that the normal situation is back soon and the "turning point" for the second leg
will hold.
In fact that a move (body >50 points) is showing a trend for some candles to come.
As long gains are there - I will not change anything here.
Thanks for pointing it out:
Here air temp 28 degrees, water 24 degrees -
time for a dive at the reef.
Tuesday after a bad Monday
Had not been at the screen.
Looking the chart now: IB made 96 points down - which is a lot
with less than 10k volume...
So the down move had an earlier than previewed Walzer pattern.
Good to know that we have some directional days again - this
boosts the chance to see some working patterns.
Good trades
GFIs1
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This weekend I took the time time to program the Walzer rules.
Just not finished yet I try to see ALL patterns that worked in the last 12 months.
As I did not take all of them. I will backtest and if the result is here we will see
what GFIs1 missed
But anyway:
I do not like to sit at the screen all day to wait for a nice upcoming pattern:
So I program it to send me a message on my phone before I need take action.
Easy: ALL four candles from the first (with >50 points body) need to have the same color. If one is not showing this
then no follow-up trade is allowed.
The Walzer consists of four consecutive same color candles and two opposite color candles to a full double trade.
If the pattern is not like described I call it "pattern broken".
This morning only one Open-Close 30min candle showed more than 50 points: that was the 10:30 to 11:00
candle with 53 points. The next candle was not red:
So NO Walzer until now.
Will show it in a chart in next post.
Here we can see the signals on every 30 min candle. There are several signals above (for long) or
underneath (for short) to see. Only one condition led to a Walzer (see posts from yesterday) and
resulted in two trades totalling 93 points.
GFIs1
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Time to see the final results. The trades were taken from december 15 last year until december 21 2015.
Slightly more than one year. Condition to take a trade was needed high volatility the day before.
Here the last trades since the posted trades until october:
Finally the top of the sheet with the total points made in described year plus the calculated average gain per trade:
GFIs1
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Some backtests done over these calm days brought some extra Walzer's that had
not been taken.
For next year these untaken trades could be a extra booster. As i am not always in front
of the screen - which is the nature of this "automate" - I had lost some extra bringing
signals. Hope to have those now handy when they occur :-)
Of course in this journal only the discussed trades when everyone could follow the system
are the main base.
Looking forward to new Walzers!
GFIs1
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I am experienced in the moves of the Dax. Knowing the optimised stops and gain zones.
Unfortunately in all other instruments I am a novice.
It is highly probable that we find similar patterns in other instruments. Maybe someone tries:
the rules are all here.
GFIs1
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A non answered question about the importance of entry and exit points.
In many threads here on futures.io the discussion if entry is more important than the exit
is still alive. But a trivial answer has not shown up.
For sure there are at least two parties struggling to show the proof.
In the end that criteria is not important:
Instead the goal is to make money and to stay in the game. Everything else is
just one step to the goal.
Being pragmatic - the result is to go for - no matter what system or belief.
GFIs1
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Here an example of the programmed signals für a possible Walzer:
The red diamonds show up when the previous bar body had more than 47 points AND the actual candle shows a body of more than 18 points in the same direction. Then the previous bar will be colored and a signal action triggers a SMS to the phone immediately.
So I will have enough time to look over the development until I fire manually the first Walzer leg. Firing in the chart is
just pressing the button V1 (in the lower left) to sell one contract - or pressing K1 to buy one contract.
Long are the blue diamonds over the second candle - the one we see has no Walzer to start as it is right before End Of
Day. And there is never a Walzer held overnight!
The red diamonds are there to show a short Walzer first. Only if the second candle body is large enough - the marker
appears and sends an SMS to the phone as well as triggering a sound on the machine.
From there the manual set trade will start or can be skipped - depending on the place where the signal occured.
Some optimizing might be a next step - but backtesting is now much easier as all candidates for a Walzer show up
in the chart:
GFIs1
..magic..
If away from the machine - a trade can be taken from the phone as well
The following 6 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I have a IB TWS (Trading Workstation) on the phone - so I can decide to take a trade manually and set stop.
As the signal is coming in enough before taking the trade I can watch the price move until the moment to
start.
The software is Investor/RT from Linnsoft. The signal triggers an eMail and from there a SMS alert.
GFIs1
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How to get signals from your chart program on your phone
1)
You need a broker that offers a trading platform on the phone.
If you have one - try if you arrive to trade on it.
2)
Check if your trading platform on the PC is capable of setting signals.
Not many platforms offer signals that are programmable. Check if
you can program some signals first.
3)
Check if those signals can be sent as eMail or SMS. If so check
if those signals from the PC really arrive in your inbox as mail
or as SMS on your phone...
4)
If you can send only mails from the signal out of your desktop application
or you can not send flash SMS to your phone - you will not be alarmed
in time - and the trade ahead maybe lost.
5)
If you only can send eMail from your program then use a gateway service to
transmit your mail as flash SMS to your phone.
ONLY if you arrive to fix all above points you will have a workable signal service.
Your desktop machine needs to be working though all the trading hours.
Good luck!
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
No feelings - just rules:
first red candle was 9891-9826 = 65 points
second red candle was 9857-9846 = 11 points
In a short the second body must have at least 20 points - otherwise it smells as reverse
AND IT WAS (28 points - near SL) - at least broken pattern.
Good trades
GFIs1
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.. found two consecutive long signals for a Walzer while the first Walzer
was still running. After the rules I took the short - which was WRONG
Only after the second "Walzer" within - price was turning and came down in the
following hour.
Now thinking of treating the "babushka" Walzer where one Walzer follows in
the same direction after a first one...
In fact that would have given much more points instead of a negative second
leg.
One does never learn everything
Good trades!
GFIs1
The following 5 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I've been looking through your Walzer setups and learned much from this thread and I would like to say thanks for that.
today I took the same trade as you have but ended up getting out for a break-even. (After what was a 84 pt run before pulling back! )
Anyhow, just wondering at what point did you think the pattern was broken? Why exit at 9755? was it the 4th candle starting to turn green? as well as getting back in IB?
THe 3rd candle shows entry direction then the 4th needs to go into the same direction to take a reversal trade.
If this condition is not given - then a new trade in the reverse direction normally will fail.
As we have seen today - the downside was after 11:00 to see.
Better to stop a trade than to make a loss.
So the reasoning was that since the 4th candle started to reverse, you exited before the candle was completed rather than to wait until it hits your stop?
If you watch the chart above:
The first candle changed color to pink. And you see underneath the !65,5 points marker.
Above the second candle you see the diamond in red for short.
So my entrance was on the third on opening and close was on fourth (ending 11:00) as
written in the green box to this candle.
As the fourth from 10:30 to 11:00 was NOT red - I stopped to take the reversal.
GFIs1
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