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RB's Formation Trading Process for Futures


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RB's Formation Trading Process for Futures

  #31 (permalink)
Newport Beach, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TS
Broker: IB, TS
Trading: ES/YM
 
Posts: 43 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 43 received

011215

Down $200 net. Looking at too many markets. My plan says to actively trade only the indexes and swing trade other markets at major levels. I have made an exception with CL around the open as I have found the PA to be excellent. I run into trouble typically when I take a bad trade and either mismanage the exit (let it go to far against me) or start looking for revenge trade at LTF. Then I get distracted from my core trading and miss good SUs, as happened numerous times today. AD was the problem last night and CD was the problem today.

All PnL gross of commission/fees, all times PST
Format: Bought/Sold (B/S), #cts/shrs, Ticker, Entry Price, entry time, exit (S/D), Exit Price, PnL

1. Covered YM cts held from Friday: $322 (not enough to fully cover YM loss on Friday)
2. S 1 AD 0.8189 at 17:18 (Sunday), B 1 0.8210: ($267)
3000t test of dKPx, SU Area 0.8190-8209. Reasonable trade, per plan, but didn't give enough room. too bad, would have been great trade.
3. B 1 JY 0.8388 at 2:04 (overnight order) S 1 0.8452: +$796
3000t, entry per plan, exit per plan. Need to learn to stick to ranging markets like this when leaving overnight orders and stop fading trending markets as I did with CD today.

3. B 1 CD 0.8372 at 7:31, B 1 CD 0.8358 at 11:07: ($592) marked at close
2H, original entry per plan but fell down the slippery slope of not exiting on break down. Looking at 5m chart, this was a crystal clear bear trend. Bulls hadn't been able to lift mkt more than 10 tks since prev day. This was a case of being distracted with other markets at time of entry, missing optimal exit, then trying to fight back. Back to the drawing board.
4. 3 soybean trades after 9:00AM agricultural report: net ($63)
3000t, looked to get short after strong close held thru 50% retrace, but volatility was too much for me (dropped 3% in 20 seconds) and I mismanaged position. I have no business trading something like this unless I have a good level and good entry, and in this case my entries were late.
5. CL B 2 46.48 at 10:08, S 2 46.29: ($380)
987t, entry per plan, exit per plan. I get into trouble with CL when I start trying to trade the minor wiggles. CL can be terrific if I either wait patiently for the major levels or trade the opening tests.

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  #32 (permalink)
Newport Beach, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TS
Broker: IB, TS
Trading: ES/YM
 
Posts: 43 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 43 received

011315

Up $900 net. The pickup in volatility mid day resulted in very sloppy trading. A big mistake I have been making almost every day is fully understanding just how far swings can extend in the current environment before turning, even within ranges. Markets seem far more prone to indiscriminate flushes and transition to trending PA. I need to wait for evidence of slowing into the SU area AND wait for a reasonable signal bar or trigger to develop on the TTF, not LTF.

All PnL gross of commission/fees, all times PST
Format: Bought/Sold (B/S), #cts/shrs, Ticker, Entry Price, entry time, exit (S/D), Exit Price, PnL

1. Exited 2 CD cts from prev day, marked at prev close 0.8339
S 1 CD 0.8358, S 1 CD 0.8352: +$367
Recouped most of unrealized loss - lucky
2. B 1 ES 2024 at 16:37 (Monday), S 1 ES 2029: +246
30m, entry/exit per plan
3. B 2 EC 1.1770 at 6:57, S 1 1.1778, S 1 1.1799: +$492
987t, Entry/exit per plan
4. B 2 YM 17594 at 10:38, S 2 17581: ($139)
987t, Entry per plan, exit per plan - tick charts can be good for a look inside the real PA that the algos are trading, but this is a great example of how misleading they can be in fast markets. I made the mistake of focusing solely on this chart for the trade and read the PA down to be comparable to the PA up, and so I discounted the selling pressure. This would have been evident on a simple 5 minute chart.
5. B 2 YM 17536 at 10:51, S 2 17449: ($879)
987t, ridiculous, stupid trade. I failed to appreciate that the market was in complete melt down mode and that some evidence of buying pressure was necessary before risking capital. The big mistake here was that I planned this trade well in advance, buying at the base of the TR but not properly evaluating the testing PA. Absent this trade, the day would have been quite good. The disappointing thing is that I have made this mistake almost every day in some market, not appreciating that ranges can easily be broken when volatility is substantially higher.
6. B 2 YM 17468 at 11:26, S 2 17482: +$140
987t, late entry, exited too soon. Very shaken up about the last trade, emotions are driving decisions at this point - bad
7. B 2 YM 17476 at 12:29, S 2 17523: +$522
987t, entry per plan, exit per plan - this is the first YM trade that I managed with a clear head
8. B 2 YM 17515 at 12:52, S 2 17532: +$162
233t, entry per plan, exit mismanaged. Was expecting possible melt up but buying pressure clearly slowed on test up to last major swg hi. Gave up 25tks, sloppy

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  #33 (permalink)
Newport Beach, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TS
Broker: IB, TS
Trading: ES/YM
 
Posts: 43 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 43 received

011415


Up $1105 net. Absolute result is good but because of the early wins I traded far too conservatively and missed many very clean opportunities, particularly in ES. I wasn't going allow myself to take another reckless trade, or manage a trade recklessly, the way I have each of the last several days, erasing a sizable amount of gains.

All PnL gross of commission/fees, all times PST
Format: Bought/Sold (B/S), #cts/shrs, Ticker, Entry Price, entry time, exit (S/D), Exit Price, PnL

1. B 1 CD 0.8311 at 23:00 (last night), S 1 0.8351: $496
3000t, entry/exit per plan.
2. B 4 ES 1997 at 6:50, S 2 1999, S 2 1997: $183
3000t, entry per plan, bad exit. tightened Stp to breakeven too soon. Per plan, supposed to keep Stp beyond SwHL base of last impulse swg (1994.25) until a stronger impulse develops that extends further.
3. S 1 CL 46.17 at 7:30, B 1 45.74: $430
144t, entry/exit per plan. quick scalp after petroleum report.

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  #34 (permalink)
Newport Beach, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TS
Broker: IB, TS
Trading: ES/YM
 
Posts: 43 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 43 received

012015 and 012115

For last 2 days: down $213 net. Have been trying to actively trade stocks since earnings season is kicking into gear, but I find it only creates confusion. Looking at too many markets results in trading none well, or missing many opportunities (as has been the case with me). I ended up trading no stocks and taking only a handful of trades in ES and CL, none of which amounted to more than a scalp since I missed the major turns. Lack of focus leads to lack of conviction, and lack of conviction leads to missing the larger moves. I am comfortable trading only a few markets at a time, and to include stocks means to focus on a single stock. The best opportunities seem to occur at the open (or pit session for futures). CL and ES work well b/c 30 min apart. If I look at both stocks and ES I will miss both. I think the solution is to swing trade stocks, looking for larger structural opportunities after some event catalyst, such as favorable earnings/guidance, and enter either on the initial PB if becomes overextended gap, or wait for the next PB (BO PB).

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  #35 (permalink)
Kalispell montana
 
 
Posts: 158 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 157 given, 23 received


rlbtrader View Post
Finished up $679. Reasonable result but missing the core, structural trades, and end up taking too many LTF minor trades. Able to contain risk more, but RR is far better with the HTF trades. I find the LTF trades are typically easier to get into and they always "look/feel" better. The HTF trades require a leap of faith in trade plan, typically entering before any sign of WT strength develops. I realize this is still a big weakness in my trading.

Like the details in your post. However, what does LTF and HTF stand for?

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  #36 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Philly, Pa
 
Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,255 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,573 given, 34,850 received


rlbtrader View Post
Down $200 net. Looking at too many markets. My plan says to actively trade only the indexes and swing trade other markets at major levels. I have made an exception with CL around the open as I have found the PA to be excellent. I run into trouble typically when I take a bad trade and either mismanage the exit (let it go to far against me) or start looking for revenge trade at LTF. Then I get distracted from my core trading and miss good SUs, as happened numerous times today. AD was the problem last night and CD was the problem today.

the problem is you use too many abbreviations and acronyms. perhaps, a trip to javier's or maestro's to look at some DD's would help clear your head and improve your trading.

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  #37 (permalink)
Newport Beach, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TS
Broker: IB, TS
Trading: ES/YM
 
Posts: 43 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 43 received

thanks for the feedback. I will try to avoid abbreviations. LTF and HTF are lower time frame, higher time frame.

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  #38 (permalink)
Newport Beach, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TS
Broker: IB, TS
Trading: ES/YM
 
Posts: 43 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 43 received

012215

Up $846 net. Looking at too many markets. Missed the big move in EC - obviously should have been focusing on that after ECB. Took big losses fading strong moves in ES and AD but recovered much of the loss thru subsequent trades. I am not sufficiently prepared with game plan. Lots of markets are trending and I need to be more focused on the higher time frame moves.

All PnL gross of commission/fees, all times PST
Format: Bought/Sold (B/S), #cts/shrs, Ticker, Entry Price, entry time, exit (S/D), Exit Price, PnL

1. B 2 YM 17524 at 5:54, S 2 17549: +$242
987tk, entry per plan, exited too soon -> key price was 17599, should have exited 17584

2. S 2 CL 46.62 at 8:01, B 2 46.52: +$191
1m, entry per plan, exited too soon - sold 2cts by mistake, should have been 1, so exited

3. S 1 CL 46.58 at 8:03, B 1 46.33: +$246
1m, entry/exit per plan

4. S 4 ES 2045.5 at 11:18, B 4 2048: ($517)
3000t, entry/exit per plan, but poor selection

5. B 4 ES 2047 at 11:30, B 4 2048: +$483
3000t, entry not per plan

6. B 1 AD 0.8019 at 12:32, S 0.7979: ($504)
3000tk, entry not per plan

7. S 2 ES 2056 at 13:01, B 2 2053: +$292
3000tk, entry/exit per plan

8. B 1 AD 0.7979 at 13:36, S 1 0.8008: +$358
3000tk, entry/exit per plan

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  #39 (permalink)
Newport Beach, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TS
Broker: IB, TS
Trading: ES/YM
 
Posts: 43 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 43 received

012615 and 012715

For last 2 days Up $1326 net. Trading was focused on ES, CL, and NQ. CL was the net loser - 10 trades and only 1 winner, but most of the trades were scratches. That, alone, tells me there were a bunch of reactive lower time frame trades taken, rather than planned structural opportunities. This happens when I miss the correct trade and start focusing of individual bars - lose context. Strongly trending markets are a big source of these bad trades. My best trade was long ES after the Sunday open. As I look at my results over a long period, it is clear my best trades come from times of greatest indecision - after the open (or pit open), after an event, when emotions in the market result in more predictable price action. In this light I have been spending more time developing a stock trading plan around events. Strong moves following some type of catalyst seem to have 2-3 subsequent days of relatively predictable price action. In previous posts I have noted that bad results generally come from spreading my focus too thin and I realize the stock effort has me swimming against the current. In theory, I am finding the stock game to be much more about planning outside of market hours than watching every price tick, so I am hoping to become more efficient in planning.

I have also noticed that I am consistently exiting well ahead of my planned target levels due to stalling price action. In 1 of 10 trades this actually saves the trade, but in the other 9 this is costing me far more in opportunity cost. I listened to a webinar the other day that touched on performance measuring. The trader said he establishes a neutral profit level by taking his preplanned entry and exit and applying 1/2 his max size. His point was that managing size and exits is far more important to performance than simply getting the direction right. This is a big problem for me. I tend to size every trade the same, regardless of the risk, and I rarely add on, mainly because I am too quick to take profit.

All PnL gross of commission/fees, all times PST
Format: Bought/Sold (B/S), #cts/shrs, Ticker, Entry Price, entry time, exit (S/D), Exit Price, PnL

1. B 2 ES 2030.25 at 15:00 (Sunday), S 2 2037: +$667
3000tk, entry per plan, exited too soon -> key price was 2048.25, should have exited 2046.25

2. B 1 CL 44.84 at 15:06, S 1 44.89: +$46
987t, entry against too much strength - no evidence of bearish weakness - lucky to exit

3. B 1 CL 44.74 at 15:07, S 1 44.44: ($304)
987t, same trade

4. B 1 CL 44.39 at 15:57, S 1 44.83: $436
987t, lucky - no basis for trade other than finally seeing some slowing

trades 5-12: CL trades - all small losses: ($450)
bad trades around pit open and pit close Monday, all based on lower time frame price action - not per plan

trades 13-22: ES trades Tuesday morning: +$148
2 good long trades w/in early chop, 5 losing long trades against breakdown, 1 good short trade w/in breakdown, then 1 good long trade at the turn, but exited way too soon.

23. B 2 NQ 4165.75 at 8:30, S 2 4163: ($119)
987t, entry/exit per plan

24. B 2 NQ 4164.75 at 9:00, S 2 4179: +$562
987t, entry/exit per plan

25. B 2 NQ 4160.25 at 12:53, S 2 4169: +$342
987t, entry/exit per plan

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  #40 (permalink)
Newport Beach, CA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: TS
Broker: IB, TS
Trading: ES/YM
 
Posts: 43 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 43 received

012815


Up $876 net. Results were reasonable but fewer than half of my trades were executed and managed according to plan, which is disappointing. Fortunately the bad trades were fairly contained and did not punish me too badly. Event days like today tend to provide good conditions for my structural style of trading.

All PnL gross of commission/fees, all times PST
Format: Bought/Sold (B/S), #cts/shrs, Ticker, Entry Price, entry time, exit (S/D), Exit Price, PnL

1. B 1 CL 45.11 at 6:03, S 1 45.06: ($54)
1min, pit session chart, entry per plan, early exit, second guessed SU

2. B 1 CL 45.14 at 6:06, S 1 45.10: ($44)
same thing - trying to decipher clues out of noise - dumb

3. S 2 ES 2036.75 at 6:31, B 2 2032.75: +$392
1min, day session chart, entry/exit per plan

4. B 1 CL 45.09 at 7:36, S 1 45.39: +$296
1min, day session chart, entry/exit per plan

5. B 2 ES 2025.5 at 7:39, S 2 2022.5: ($309)
3000tk, entry not per plan - no evidence of slowing Mo into SU area - was distracted looking at CL and did not properly evaluate

6-10 four more long ES trades entered between 7:43 and 7:58, at prices between 2022.75 and 2019.5. Came apart fading strength before any evidence of slowing. For some reason became overly convicted on long ES trade - after 3 bad entries lost confidence to hold the 4th trade that would reached target. Then failed to take the long entry after buying pressure actually came into the market. ($184)

11. B 1 CL 44.13 at 11:32, S 1 44.44: +$306
3000t, entry/exit per plan

12. B 1 YM 17286 at 11:32, S 1 17310: +$116
3000t, entry/exit mismanaged - planned entry was to be at 17254 but "fear of missing out" popped up and I entered based on a very minor lower time frame trigger. As a result I lost conviction to hold for planned target at 17334

13. B 1 ES 2010.75 at 11:33, S 1 2018: +$358
9000t, entry/exit per plan - embarrassed to admit that this trade played out exactly as planned because I simply forgot about it while focusing on the simultaneous YM trade, and the entry limit and exit limit executed automatically. Goes to show how important it is to stick to the plan. I listened to a webinar the other day and the speaker talked about how his biggest mistakes as a developing trader had to do with making changes to his trade plan after entry based on subsequent price action, almost always resulting in reduced gain or increased loss. He said it took him years before he finally accepted that price action between his entry and target or stop was almost always random/chop, with no predictive value.

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