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Nice job. It was very interesting to hear about your "sim week". Sounds like you're gaining some insight from this exercise.
Is moving to BE when up 4ticks part of your plan? I'm struggling with a similar concept, the temptation to move to BE to mitigate potential for any loss (or moving a trailing stop close once I'm up a bit). I'm keeping note of how often this helps vs. hurts me. So far, from limited observations of my forex trades, it does not seem to be as beneficial as I imagined. The missed opportunities are quite large.
My risk on ZN is usually 5 ticks so moving to BE at 4 ticks is not horrible (at this writing I refuse take a loss after price has reached +1R). Since it was the only trade of the week, it was Friday and price took a while to get to 4t, I was a little more cautious. I have tended to do better when I trade on the cautious side, taking lots of BE and waiting for trades that take off and never look back. When I get a consistently higher win rate, I'll let them wander around a bit more. My opinion is that a trader should be very protective until they are good, especially with real money. Don't get too caught up in grieving over missed moves.
Weekly Summary 8/17/15 to 8/21/15
Live Trades: 1 loser
Week’s P/L: -$3.00
Starting balance for the week: $2903.91
Withdrawals for the week: $0
Deposits for the week: $0
Ending balance for the week: $2900.91
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: -$99.09
Last week I took a break from live trading to test my method to its maximum in sim. The idea was to take every trade that I saw so that I would leave nothing on the table to mark later in hindsight. I also wanted to determine if it was possible to manage all these trades in real time and how often I would have multiple trades on.
The results:
96 trades
42 wins
54 losses
The results were poor when I took everything. They were better when I waited for certain events to create better context. Events include bounces off S/R, supply/demand lines, Strong directional moves with volume, etc. Seeing and taking that many trades was not difficult. Often there were up to 4 trades on at the same time so margin would be higher. Also need to find a better way to mark missed trade opportunities. The hindsight thing is ok to a certain point, but one needs to be really cautious of relying on it to gauge the validity of a method.
Back to live trading this week. I may occasionally switch to sim for practice.
8/25/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 3, 2 win, 1 loss
Day’s P/L: $53.23
One trade on M6E and two trades on ZN. Once again hesitated on the best trade of the day on YM in the afternoon. Waited a long time for it, and when the moment arrived, I chickened out. I am getting really good at waiting for set ups but still hesitating when they arrive. Placed a lot of dots in real time where I though decent trades set up. With a few exceptions I think I was reading things correctly.
Charts annotated with thoughts. Two charts for YM today due to the volatility.
Back to live trading. 5 trades, 2 on M6E and 3 on ZN. Managed to avoid all profits by passing on the best trades and waiting for the marginal ones. Same old garbage.
There was good news and bad news today. The good news is that I passed a milestone by getting my account back into the black after being down almost $900, so we’re working in the right direction. Took three trades, 2 on M6E and one on ZN. 6E is proving to be a bitch to trade for me. Thankfully I am taking my losses on M6E where the contract value is 1/10th, otherwise it would be eating my lunch. The one trade on ZN work beautifully and fast to its 2R target. So, with all that, I am grateful.
The bad news is that I feel like I’m missing out on the gold rush by hesitating and trading scared. Rarely has there been such opportunity for the day trader as the last three days. These are the times that need to be taken advantage of. I feel like I am reading the market better than ever and just need to click the button and get a couple nice trades under the belt. That’s all it would take, to catch just one of those 200 tick moves that YM has been ripping off with regularity. Then I could trade with a bit more freedom. At least that’s the story I’m sticking with!
Marked up a lot of areas that work out today, just need to hit the button. Having said that, there is no need to get anxious. The worst thing to do is to force it. Just hit the button when the good opportunities appear, that’s all.
2 charts for YM again today because of volatility.
I think it's awesome that you tested your system without context and found it was unreliable, instead of just postulating about it. The confidence you get from testing something is quite important I think.
Hypothesize, test, hypothesize, test. That's kind of what learning how to trade is about. No sense in fooling oneself, though there is something to be said for blissful ignorance.
