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There is a master set of spreadsheets, with each instrument having their own set of stats (ZN has performed the best). These are aggregated into a summary sheet. The stats go beyond what a platform typically tracks. One of the primary stats is how far price travels from entry, whether I am still in the trade or not. This gives me an idea of trade quality, and how often my trades reach milestones like 1R, 2R, 3R etc.
I don't do much with long/short because it is so dependent on market conditions.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
If Tuesday’s trading was like shooting even par in blustery winds, today’s scoring conditions were perfect, but I missed my tee time.
Based on the work I have been doing over the past weeks, I thought I was ready to take advantage of a strong day. Entries have been coming with greater ease, and I’ve hung tough during choppy, slow days. There are not many days that are easier to trade than today. Yet, inexplicably, I took no trades. Very disappointing. Apparently I have more work to do.
Here is a timeline of trades that I watched line up during the first part of the morning like a big set at Waimea. There were many more after this, but by 8:00 I was cooked. It was unlikely that I would then take a trade and risk loss after already passing on so many winners.
1) 5:30, ZN: quick reversal and bounce off support with a higher low after the news. Passed opp, at least 10 ticks ($150)
2) 6:00, NG: quick TL break at the open from a nicely formed retracement. Tried to get in with a limit order but did not fill. Passed opp, 25 ticks ($250)
3) 6:34, YM: failed attempt to go higher at the open followed by a quick break of the TL to the downside. Passed opp, 100 ticks ($500)
4) 6:45, GC: break out pull back long. Passed opp 30 ticks ($300)
5) 7:31, NG: beautiful TL break following a big rally after the inventory report. Passed opp 15 ticks. ($150)
6) 7:35, NG: larger base and bounce off support. Passed opp, 30 ticks. ($300)
These were the most obvious. There were many more, as evidenced by the markers on the charts. The consoling thought is that a day like this will happen again, maybe tomorrow. I just need to be ready.
Marker activity was very good. The one loser came at the end of the day on NG:
5 winners
1 loser
4 BE
For ease of reference, the attached charts are sequenced on a daily basis as follows: CL, GC, NG, YM or NQ, 6E, ZN, and a bonus chart if applicable
No trades today. The action was a bit less clear, and subconsciously, avoidance of risk was a factor after yesterday’s missed opportunities. I’ve noticed that my willingness to risk ebbs and flows. Time not trading builds courage, and vice versa. This is another thing to be mindful of.
Due to boredom, the charts are more annotated than normal.
For ease of reference, the attached charts are sequenced on a daily basis as follows: CL, GC, NG, YM or NQ, 6E, ZN, and a bonus chart if applicable
Weekly Summary 8/3/15 to 8/7/15
Live Trades: 8, 3 winners, 5 losers
Week’s P/L: $219.10
Starting balance for the week: $2434.56
Withdrawals for the week: $0
Deposits for the week: $0
Ending balance for the week: $2653.66
Beginning account balance from first live trade on 3/10/15: $3000.00
Total Withdrawals: $0
Total Deposits: $0
Total Gains/losses from 3/10/15: -$346.34
Slowly trying to claw back, but still a long way to go. I continue to believe that under-trading is one of my biggest issues at the moment. Missed on a really good day Thursday by not trading. Really could have been a game changer.
I also have a tendency to pick areas that turn into chop because I am waiting for all kinds of confirmation. Meanwhile, I pass on a lot of trades that easily go to target because these areas would require more decisiveness and boldness, and more faith in my judgement.
Of the 8 trades, 5 made it to 1R but none made it to 2R. This is not good. It means I am choosing trades with little potential. In contrast, the markers combined with the trades did better:
Of 35 marked/traded areas, 21 got to at least 1R (60%), while 11 got to 2R, against 14 that would have been stopped out.
Lastly, I will be paying more attention to a certain type of price action that I think will help me get into trades a little earlier. This pattern works best in a trend or where a change of trend is likely. It resembles a K, with a shallow TL on the 1st retracement, followed by a steeper TL to end the retracement. Entry is on the break of the steeper TL in anticipation of a resumption of the trend or start of the reversal. Several examples are in the charts of Friday
Four trades, one on M6E and three on YM. It was a decent day of picking trades. Three made the 2R target, though I only held one of them that far. The best trade was on M6E with two contracts entered at different times. Because of the low contract value it only made a small amount. That’s ok, at least the idea was correct.
The three YM trades did not represent my best trade management. I was a bit skittish due to the slow activity and difficulty it had making its way up. I’ve seen topping action that looked like this, which spooked me a little. Arguably, I should not have taken the trades at all since the trend was already very mature and I had missed the best of it.
Speaking of that, once again I chose to pass on the best and easiest trades of the day, one on YM, one on CL and one on gold that could have made for a nice day. It is a fundamental lack of trust, especially when the markets are energized. I just have this fear that I will get quickly stopped out and done for the day. Got to get over this as it is at these times that the opportunities are often the best.
8/11/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 4, 2 wins, 2 losses
Day’s P/L: $108.20
Four trades today, 3 on NG and one on ZN. One of the NG trades was an accident. Somehow I moved the stop to -1t on my limit order and it filled and stopped out in an instant. I re-entered properly for a decent gain.
It was a nice day in that I took a relatively large loss (for me) on my first trade, but managed to keep trading, getting it back and then some in the next couple trades. There were still a lot of passed opportunities out there that hopefully I will be able to take advantage of someday, but to end the day positive after the loss was progress. The only downside is that I have been letting too many opportunities slip by in the equities. As long as the volatility is there I need to take advantage of them.
One last point. There were a lot of large stacked orders near the bottom on oil today. More than I have ever seen, meaning some big players jockeying around. Not sure if they were profit taking or establishing new positions, but it will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days. Could be a possible larger correction coming.
Marker/trade activity was also decent, showing a slight edge:
3 wins
3 losses
1 BE
Was not able to trade for very long today due to family matters. Looks like I missed a great day of trading. I did place a few markers in real time in the first hour. Results:
2 wins
1 BE
Attached are what I saw today in review. The thick arrows are hindsight so it is to be taken with a grain of salt. I do try to be as honest as possible as to what I might have seen in real time. That is why I will often mark areas that fail. Of course, there is always some hindsight bias so it is never perfect.
For ease of reference, the attached charts are sequenced on a daily basis as follows: CL, GC, NG, YM or NQ, 6E, ZN, and a bonus chart if applicable
It was a bit more difficult to trade today. Markets were slow much of the day with occasional moves. As usual, there were plenty of opps but they were harder to see in real time and the slow action did not lend confidence. They were not as obvious as yesterday and would have required some leaps of faith.
Took three trades, 2 on ZN and one on NG. One ZN trade was another accidental entry/exit because of my handling of chart trader. I think I’ve got it figured out. The other ZN trade was BE. The one NG trade came after inventory and yielded 15t (1R).
Theoretical Marked/traded results:
2 wins
1 loss
1BE
The one “theoretical” loss was on the 2nd ZN trade. In reality I managed to get out at BE so that was nice. If I can turn some of the theoretical losses into actual BE the edge looks even better.
Charts annotated with reasons for trade or no trade areas.
For ease of reference, the attached charts are sequenced on a daily basis as follows: CL, GC, NG, YM or NQ, 6E, ZN, and a bonus chart if applicable
