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Tap In's Corner
Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,413 / 839
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Tap In's Corner

Old December 22nd, 2014, 04:50 PM   #71 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Tomorrow: continue focus on increasing trade numbers. Have a “whatever” attitude. Flat line reaction to a loss or disappointing outcome. Do not let negative emotions cause scar tissue. Watch for moves in opposite direction in non "open field" markets. Place a mark at everything I see as a potentially legit trade, then evaluate the results later.

12/22/14 Monday
Trades taken: 1, +15t
Should have taken: 0
Courage ratio: on hold due to marker experiment.
Experimental markers: 14
Potential with move stop strategy: 5 wins, 3 losses, 6 BE, +105t
Potential without moving stop: 7 wins, 7 losses, +105t

Continuing with experiment to mark every legitimate set up I see with minimal criteria and little hesitation. Did a pretty good job of seeing things in real time. There were a couple places I should have marked but didn’t for various reasons. The goal of the experiment it to see what would happen if I freely hit the button, so I need to make sure I am marking them in a devil-may-care way.

Interesting that the results were the same today whether I moved to BE after +15t or just let it ride in a set it and forget it way.

I have a lot of common wisdom trading misnomers floating around in my head that need to be purged. One such is this notion to be cautious around holidays. It may be true that on average holidays tend to have lower volatility, but if one has a way of staying out during low volatility, they can still be quite productive when things start moving. Oil on Thanksgiving morning and several markets today are Exhibits A and B.

If the market is moving trade it!

Tomorrow: continue marking everything, with abandon. Take good trades when they are there. Do not react emotionally to losses or repeated nowhere trades.

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Old December 23rd, 2014, 04:54 PM   #72 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Tomorrow: continue marking everything, with abandon. Take good trades when they are there. Do not react emotionally to losses or repeated nowhere trades.

12/23/14 Tuesday
Trades taken: 0
Should have taken: 0
Courage ratio: on hold due to marker experiment.
Experimental markers: 8
Potential with move stop strategy: 1 win, 4 losses, 3 BE, -30t, max dd -45t
Potential without moving stop: 1 win, 7 losses, -75t, max dd -60t before first win

Little movement in any of the lads. Most of the activity of the charts took up only about ½ the screen. Some moves present but very hard to predict.

Happy that I marked up some trades as per focus but really not the day to be doing too much.

As expected on a day with not much open field, marked areas backfilled a lot and took out at BE if moving stop to BE after +15t. However, the set-it-and-forget it style fared worse at -75t compared to -30t when moving stop.

Unhappy with only one of the areas I marked, which was a short on oil as detailed on the chart. Otherwise I marked what I thought were viable trades.

My entry style of waiting for a TL break and close definitely requires volatility and not much in the way of backfilling. So waiting for those types of markets is a must.

The reality of today is that I probably should have only marked a couple areas. I guess I got a little carried away with the favorable nature of the past few days. Critical that I wait for days that are moving.

This brings up the need to develop a strategy of trading rotational days

Focus for next trading day (Friday or Monday): continue marking everything, with abandon. Take good trades when they are there. Do not react emotionally to losses or repeated nowhere trades.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-23_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-23_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-23_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-23_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 30th, 2014, 04:48 PM   #73 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
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Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received


12/30/14 Tuesday
Trades taken: 5, 2 winners, 3 losers, +40t

Holiday trading. Markets moving slowly but covering distance, making for good opportunities today and yesterday.

No trades yesterday. 5 trades today, spread out with at least one in each instrument.

2 trades got to target of +30 ticks. I exited one at target and one a little early.

2 trades only went a few ticks then reversed beyond my stop. I managed to exit both at BE instead of potentially -30t.

1 trade got +21 ticks and reversed to BE.

In summary, “managing” the trades resulted in +10 total ticks more than “set-it-and-forget it”. Starting to feel confidence in trade location choices. This is resulting in more calmness after entry.

I am considering starting some live trading after the first of the year. My discipline is very good so I want to start attacking that next challenge: trading with real money and getting used to that feeling again. It has been a while.

Tomorrow: Take good trades (sim) when they present. Do not press. Do not react emotionally to losses or repeated nowhere trades.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-30_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-30_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-30_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-30_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 31st, 2014, 05:41 PM   #74 (permalink)
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

12/31/14 Wednesday
Trades taken: 3, 2 winners, 1 loser, +45t

Another great day of market movement. I did not join the fray until late. Most of the morning spent watching opportunity after opportunity drift by.

Holiday trading seems to produce very directional moves with less backing and filling. I can only theorized as to why, but it doesn’t really matter. In any case, it seems to make for nice trading. Something to remember for next year. Being cautious in holiday trading is another misconception that I need to purge.

Good news today is that the three trades I took all made it to +30 tick target. This is very good for me.

Not so good news is that I only let one trade actually get there. Got scared out of one at BE and the other at +15t. Not to worry though, very pleased to have some nice gains.

Step one, pick better trades. Step 2 learn to manage them.

It has been a nice year for improvement. As I mentioned in one of the first posts, something happened around October that got me looking at the markets differently.

It was around that time that I started paying more attention to a very simple concept: trend line break trading on tick charts. MACK and his teachings about how to draw lines really helped. I do not trade his way but I have learned a lot from him on how to develop market structure.

I started to realize that I could develop a very tradable method around this trend line idea. I became better at drawing structure. I learned how to stay out of false moves, and to re-adjust lines as the market unfolded to better find the true key line that represented the point of no return.

I sort of instantly stopped chasing bottoms and tops. Not because of will power, but because it no longer fit into the definition of a viable trade based on my newly developed rules.

I started to notice that if I waited for price to move into an “open field”, and found the proper structure, that plenty of trades would present themselves, enough so to make a nice living. The need to be the first on board was not as great.

This was all helped along by adding a few more markets to my arsenal. Now, with four instruments I can truly wait for the best opportunities and not get as anxious of missing out. My rules make it easy to follow four markets at a glance.

Add to all this is the fact that I am quickly approaching that magical number of 10,000 hours of screen time. Whether it takes 8k, or 9k, or 11k, is immaterial and really individually unique based on a traders aptitude and training opportunities. But, no matter what the “method” is, time in the seat is critical.

As I type this I still harbor doubts as to whether or not I have found something viable. It is my hope that I don’t look back on this post a year from now and ask, “what happened?” My personality is such that I’ll believe it when I see it.

With that said, I know I am a better trader today than I was a year ago. With a lot more work, a little luck, and a lot of faith I will be a better trader next year, and the year after that.

One last note. I have found the journaling experience on futures.io (formerly BMT) to be extremely useful. I have always kept a journal but I tended to avoid looking back on what I had written because it was squirreled away in some folder somewhere. Having it on futures.io (formerly BMT) has naturally caused me to read and re-read a lot of what I have written. There is something about writing publicly that causes one to go back and look at their writing. For anyone on the fence I highly encourage you to start a journal here at futures.io (formerly BMT).

Happy New Year!

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Old December 31st, 2014, 05:48 PM   #75 (permalink)
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For anyone on the fence I highly encourage you to start a journal here at futures.io (formerly BMT).

Happy New Year!

Agree to that. It's been good following along as you progressed, too.

And happy New Year.

Bob.

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Old December 31st, 2014, 09:32 PM   #76 (permalink)
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Agree to that. It's been good following along as you progressed, too.

And happy New Year.

Bob.

Thank you for your support Bob. Happy New Year to you too

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Old January 4th, 2015, 09:50 PM   #77 (permalink)
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

1/2/15 Friday
Trades taken: 20, 8 winners, 12 losers, +17t

Pros:
-Took a lot of trades.
-Managed to eke out a gain in spite of few running trades. In golf terms I saved my day with my short game. This is progress because in the past, 20+ trades would have resulted in larger losses. When a golfer can shoot par while hitting the ball poorly it is a sign of improvement. Need to focus on hitting better shots though.
-Remained relatively calm during trades
-Getting comfortable aborting trades that don’t seem to be going anywhere before they take me out with a full stop.

Cons:
-Not taking enough of the good trades. Getting on board after the meat of the move. The good trades often start in a nondescript way.
-Got caught up in some choppy areas.
-Max DD was higher than is comfortable (-$390)

Monday:
-Continue taking trades in sim as they present themselves.
-Look for clues on turnaround areas.
-If price struggles to go one way, it is a clue that it may go the other.
-Avoid letting negative emotions create scar tissue
-Start taking A+ trades live.

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Tap In's Corner-2015-01-02_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-02_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-02_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-02_nq_summary.png  
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Old January 4th, 2015, 10:44 PM   #78 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

I have decided to give myself permission to take live trades starting Monday. My discipline is very good so I might as well start getting accustom to live trading again.

The plan is to do the bulk of my trading in sim to continue refining and developing my method. When an A+ set up presents itself I will take it live.

The general template that will guide my thinking going forward involves a one year strategy to make $100,000. It is based around a target of net 100 ticks per week per contract, an average of net 20 ticks per day per contract. It involves three 16 to 18 week sets. The plan is as follows:

Weeks 1-16: trade one lots (two lots NQ) with target of net 100 ticks per week per contract. Result, 1600 ticks net, or $16,000

Weeks 17-32: trade two lots (four lots NQ), same weekly target per contract. Result, 3200 net ticks, or $32,000

Weeks 33-50: trade three lots (six lots NQ), same weekly target per contract. Result, 5400 net ticks, or $54,000.

Total: $16, 000 + $32,000 + $54,000 = $102,000.

This is not to say I will attempt this goal starting Monday. There is no need to press. This is merely a goal I can shoot for as I continue to refine my method.

I believe that 20 ticks per day per contract should be more than within reach of any trader with a viable method. By keeping in mind what can be achieved with so modest a goal, it will help me maintain the proper perspective entering each trading day.

Attached is the account I will be working with going forward…

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Old January 5th, 2015, 09:46 PM   #79 (permalink)
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,063 given, 1,849 received

1/5/15 Monday
Live Trades: 0
Sim Trades: 20, -67t

Pros:
-Avoided trading live on a difficult day, so I did not lose anything.
-took a good number of trades to test system and acquire samples.
-was able to enter sim trades without too much hesitation.
-Attitude was good in spite of the poor results

Cons:
-too many trades went nowhere
-exited the good trades too early
-couldn’t hold through the chop
-broke some rules: did not wait for the open field and took 2nd and 3rd whacks at the same trade idea. Got chopped up pretty bad in oil because of this.

It was a tough day of trading. My ideas were proven wrong most of the time. Now that I have given myself permission to take live trades I was a little looser with my sim trades. Sim is replacing hand drawn markers. Live is replacing sim.

It was not a day to be taking as many trades as I did. Lots of back filling and chop. 7 of the 20 trades got to 30t but I didn’t hold them long enough to do so. Regardless it meant that 13 trades would have gotten stopped out at -15t so it would have been a wash.

Trade location quality is poor. Too many trades going nowhere.

With my current method choppy days are deadly. I need volatility. 15 tick stops required one way movement.

I didn’t really see anything that looked like an A+ trade so I am happy I stayed out with real money.

Tomorrow:
-Keep hitting the button in sim and creating samples and experience. Need to continue to work on getting over the hesitation.
-Maintain good attitude, even if things are not going well.
-Take A+ trades live as they present themselves.
-If it is a one way day, don’t hesitate to hit the button multiple times.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2015-01-05_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-05_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-05_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-05_nq_summary.png  
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Old January 6th, 2015, 09:13 PM   #80 (permalink)
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Tomorrow:
-Keep hitting the button in sim and creating samples and experience. Need to continue to work on getting over the hesitation.

Check, but could have taken more


Tap In View Post
-Maintain good attitude, even if things are not going well.

Did not accomplish. Was distracted, irritated, frustrated


Tap In View Post
-Take A+ trades live as they present themselves.

no trades live


Tap In View Post
-If it is a one way day, don’t hesitate to hit the button multiple times.

Failed. Oil and NQ trended and I did nothing about it.

1/6/15 Tuesday
Live Trades: 0
Sim Trades: 17, +1t

Pros:
-created more samples. Relatively loose with taking entries
-Did not lose real money.
-Got back to whole after being down $399 in sim

Cons:
-Passed on some of the best trades
-Only 5 of 17 trades moved at least +30. Of those I only held one to the full +30t.
-My poor trade quality is making me feel very skittish about holding through too much of a retracement. For every early exit that costs me, two more save me. Once again, poor trade location history is weighing on my ability to hold.
-Was distracted and frustrated early which didn’t help with decision making.
-Oil and NQ were one way for much of the day and I completely failed to take advantage
-Draw down of $399 too much

Interesting phenomenon is playing out since I decided to trade live and loosen up my sim trading. For the past three days I have been taking many more trades in sim than in the past. I am not guarding my sim account as closely as I used to.

However, taking all these trades and getting poor or breakeven results is playing with my emotions. I am finding myself getting frustrated and irritated with the lack of progress.

I am losing way more trades than I am winning. This is taking a bit of an emotional toll. I need to power through this period recognizing that change always brings stress. I don’t want to limit my trade count and get super defensive again.

For every losing trade, there is someone on the other side winning. Rather than get ultra-picky and not trade, I want to figure out how to be that person on the other side. Ultimately, if I want to make a living trading, I have to trade.

Having said that, I do plan to be ultra-picky with the live trades until I figure out how to trade a lot while consistently winning.

Tomorrow:
-More of the same, keep hitting the button in sim and creating samples and experience. Around 20 trades, +/- depending on the day, across 4 instruments is where I want to be right now.
-Keep perspective of what is going on. I have made a big change and with it comes stress. Stress hightens emotions. Recognize that I will have to acclimate to this new environment. More trading is naturally going to lead to more losses until I figure out how to take the better trades. Go with it and enjoy.
-Take A+ trades live as they present themselves.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2015-01-06_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-06_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-06_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2015-01-06_nq_summary.png  
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