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Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,378 / 839
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Old September 3rd, 2016, 11:36 PM   #741 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I cant trade the higher time frame analysis because it would require more risk and I am not in position to scale in and take on 50-100 ticks of risk to play these events like you do. I mainly use the macro analysis for directional clues to drop down to my risk level, which is 10-15 ticks per contract. I know you don't believe in this small of risk but it is all I can do right now and others have made it work. If you were forced at gun point to trade with my risk tolerance, could you make money? If so, what would be the one or two things you would suggest I focus on or do next week?

Thank you for your time. I appreciate it!

I think I could survive if limited to 15t risk per trade but I would prefer to "thrive" without limits. I would certainly have to make style changes and I feel it would be more difficult to catch big moves. My trading on Friday was "tight risk" style as the market was in counter trend mode all day. I posted all trades in the scalpers journey and I don't think I saw 15t heat on more than 1 entry but that being said- I don't think I saw more than 50t on any of my trades either.

The one single thing I would do (as I did Friday) is to trade directionally until my trades start failing. Example- using your HTF analysis you identify where you think the market is heading for the day- then using your trading risk/timeframe you only focus on trading in that direction until your trades get harder to hit targets or start losing or the market clearly says it's not heading where you thought it was. Note I say directionally vs with trend. There are countertrend days and if trading inside the days timeframe you get forced to be countertrend- it's ok as long as you are aware of who really is in control of the market and why the day is being "allowed" to gain ground. One thing I like to say is that I think the market is going to xx but I have no clue the path it's going to take to get there- that "path" may provide a bunch of trades that will fit the low risk bill or it may only present 1 chance- I have to be open to every opportunity so long as I still feel we are going to xx ( my thesis) and my job is to make them work.

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Old September 4th, 2016, 12:03 AM   #742 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Parting words for the evening

I don't feel that the way I trade is the only way to make money. It fits my personality but it didn't always fit me. I used to feel that tight stops and getting out quickly was the name of the game- my style of trading morphed into what it is today as I learned to embrace different perspectives and it became a "learned behavior". Other guys, like @michaelleemoore, trade with little heat and get out at the first sign of trouble. I see nothing "wrong" with that style of trading at all. In fact, there are some days I wish I was doing the same when I'm getting hit and they are racking up singles one after another- The only time I feel tight trading is a problem is when it's done out of fear vs being ones strategy or when it's limiting ones true potential in exchange for a little comfort. If you can make it rain with tight stops and quick profits, by all means - go take thier money!

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Old September 4th, 2016, 05:22 AM   #743 (permalink)
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the gap


Great advice in all of the above responses, I'm taking all of it to heart as well, as I too need to jump the 'fear gap'.

Only one I will add is a couple of pence response here:


Tap In View Post
I cant trade the higher time frame analysis because it would require more risk and I am not in position to scale in and take on 50-100 ticks of risk to play these events like you do. I mainly use the macro analysis for directional clues to drop down to my risk level, which is 10-15 ticks per contract.

Imho the goal is to use a lower time frame entry to get in on a higher time-frame move (if we get lucky our macro analysis correct, there is no more risk involved, that's the illusion (and the wonder) of good trading.

My only other plea is for @Inletcap not to adopt @bobwest's style of writing as I'm not sure the FIO servers have big enough disks..

Cheers

Travel Well
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Old September 4th, 2016, 08:25 AM   #744 (permalink)
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A lot of good advice has been given.
If I may add my 2cts....

Trade planning
As said, your analysis and bias are ok.

Trade execution
It's job as a trader to execute on your bias when the opportunity comes. I can understand that you are in doubt sometimes, but you must take the trade. Take our mutual friend @Inletcap for example. Many times he writes that he's done for the day, calling it a day, etc. But then all of a sudden you find him taking another trade Why? Because he feels he has to do it, it's his job as a trader (and I guess he doesn't mind the extra cash), he can't ignore the opportunity.
You can practice this very well on sim and reinforce this behaviour: just take all trades that fit your criteria and are in line with your directional bias for the day. Review the stats after 1 month

Trade management
Regarding breakeven and max risk. An excercise that will give you a lot of insight is to go over your trades and see what would have happened if you did not move the stop the BE, would have increased your risk, etcetera. I found this very helpful and convinced me to make changes.
Regarding profit targets. You are trading price levels, but why do you exit on 1R, 2R, etc? Market doesn't care about your R but respects price levels. My advice is to set profit targets on price levels (floor trader pivots, SR levels, etc) instead of R. This is also something that you simulate on past trades. Keep stats and see if these are better than profit targets based on R (I've done the excercise and know the answer in my case)

A long post, kinda Bob-style , but I hope it will help you.


Last edited by GruttePier; September 4th, 2016 at 08:37 AM.
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Old September 4th, 2016, 02:43 PM   #745 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
Only one I will add is a couple of pence response here:

Imho the goal is to use a lower time frame entry to get in on a higher time-frame move (if we get lucky our macro analysis correct, there is no more risk involved, that's the illusion (and the wonder) of good trading.

You said it better than I. This is exactly what I am trying to do. Example: I see a POC on my macro blueprint. I have a notion that this POC might stop and reverse price for a decent move. If I blindly fade the POC I might need to give it 40 ticks wiggle room. I don't have that size of an account (and I am not interested in ETFs right now! ). Instead I will watch price bounce off the POC with some conviction and then try to find a smaller risk opportunity within my risk tolerance.

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Old September 4th, 2016, 03:24 PM   #746 (permalink)
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GruttePier View Post
A lot of good advice has been given.
If I may add my 2cts....

Trade planning
As said, your analysis and bias are ok.

Trade execution
It's job as a trader to execute on your bias when the opportunity comes. I can understand that you are in doubt sometimes, but you must take the trade. Take our mutual friend @Inletcap for example. Many times he writes that he's done for the day, calling it a day, etc. But then all of a sudden you find him taking another trade Why? Because he feels he has to do it, it's his job as a trader (and I guess he doesn't mind the extra cash), he can't ignore the opportunity.
You can practice this very well on sim and reinforce this behaviour: just take all trades that fit your criteria and are in line with your directional bias for the day. Review the stats after 1 month This is the "will power" aspect that I have referred to. I just have to will myself do it

Trade management
Regarding breakeven and max risk. An excercise that will give you a lot of insight is to go over your trades and see what would have happened if you did not move the stop the BE, would have increased your risk, etcetera. I found this very helpful and convinced me to make changes. Yes, I do this for every trade and keep a spreadsheet of how far my trades reasonably travel, with or without me. This helps me gauge the "potential" in my trading. How often does price travel a reasonable distance in my favor then reverse and hit my stop? Is it worth it to me to hold trades for greater profit, or should I be taking smaller profits more often? See the image below
Regarding profit targets. You are trading price levels, but why do you exit on 1R, 2R, etc? Market doesn't care about your R but respects price levels. My advice is to set profit targets on price levels (floor trader pivots, SR levels, etc) instead of R. This is also something that you simulate on past trades. Keep stats and see if these are better than profit targets based on R (I've done the excercise and know the answer in my case) Similar answer to above. My stats sheets help me determine how far my trades are traveling. My general belief, developed through keeping stats for a long time, is that a trader has to pick trades that reach 1R more often than not in order to be profitable in the long run. If you cant pick trades that get to 1R you will be taking too many stop outs and will have a hard time making up for them.
With multiple contracts, 1R might be where you would exit the first contract, leaving runners to get the rest. This is kind of what I was getting at when I gave you my observations about your stats. You were reaching 1R a whole bunch, and could make good money on 1 contract if you just took everything at 1R, but you were giving up a lot of those gains by trying to catch runners. With multiple contracts you could take partials at 1R, bank a lot of profits, and leave your second contract to run. Ultimately, I want to look for exits at predetermined levels, but in order to do that I have to be consistent at picking trades that travel a minimum distance, most of the time. I have determined that distance to be 1R. Can I correctly read the market such that price reaches 1R more than 50% of the time? If I cant I will have a hard time as a trader. If I can, than I will be profitable and I can concern myself with adding contracts and catching runners later. Does this make sense?


A long post, kinda Bob-style , but I hope it will help you.

All good points! My notes above. Thank you!

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Old September 5th, 2016, 01:07 AM   #747 (permalink)
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All good points! My notes above. Thank you!

One thing to point out- if your R is 10-15 ticks but your next POC is 150 ticks away, taking 1 R because it's available and comfortable just limited the ability to have "asymmetric" returns in this example. If you made a 100+ tick trade 1 or 2 times per week, where would you be compared to where you are today with your P&L? I hope you are seeing my point- your math and idea sounds logical, but my simple question just poked a major hole in its reality. Trading is not logical- markets are dynamic- When you have the ability to exploit the present condition you must do so vs taking a 1 R exit as this outsized return potential makes up for a bulk of the standard losing trades we encounter and when the market gives you a couple of these opportunities in a short amount of time, you get to see exponential account growth. You say that you can't afford to do it but I believe the real question is "Can you afford to NOT try it?"

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Old September 5th, 2016, 04:48 AM   #748 (permalink)
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Tap In View Post
I cant trade the higher time frame analysis because it would require more risk and I am not in position to scale in and take on 50-100 ticks of risk to play these events like you do. I mainly use the macro analysis for directional clues to drop down to my risk level, which is 10-15 ticks per contract. I know you don't believe in this small of risk but it is all I can do right now and others have made it work. If you were forced at gun point to trade with my risk tolerance, could you make money? If so, what would be the one or two things you would suggest I focus on or do next week?

Thank you for your time. I appreciate it!

That is not quite true. You can keep a mechanical 10 or 15 tick stop on any timeframe although if you do use them, I would advise keeping them at 20 or even 30 ticks to avoid unnecessary chop. Whether or not you use support or resistance (or any other method) to place your stops or just place them mechanically, the following almost always holds true - the closer the stop, the more likely the trade is to be stopped out.

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Old September 5th, 2016, 04:52 AM   #749 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
Imho the goal is to use a lower time frame entry to get in on a higher time-frame move (if we get lucky our macro analysis correct, there is no more risk involved, that's the illusion (and the wonder) of good trading.

Just another thing to ponder - would lower time frame entries not also expose the account to more chop? Could this additional chop not negate the benefits of more "precise" entries?

I don't have the answer to that question, but whenever I trade on smaller timeframes my performance suffers. Of course the guys in the Scalper's thread seem to thrive on the smaller timeframes...

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Old September 5th, 2016, 04:58 AM   #750 (permalink)
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grausch View Post
Just another thing to ponder - would lower time frame entries not also expose the account to more chop? Could this additional chop not negate the benefits of more "precise" entries?

I don't have the answer to that question, but whenever I trade on smaller timeframes my performance suffers. Of course the guys in the Scalper's thread seem to thrive on the smaller timeframes...

It is an issue, it just depends on what you see and feel best. I can nail lower structures and waves, but I sure as hell wish I could hold a longer trade or scale-in and out like the big sandpit boys can afford to. Mind you I used to do that in the previous decade, when scaling-in was just adding to losers.. At least I'm past that.

As the Cap says, you can lose half a dozen small-time entries, so long as you hold and press the good ones. Just like women then..

Cheers

Travel Well

Last edited by ratfink; September 5th, 2016 at 05:53 AM.
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