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Tough read for me today. Price sits between two POC's from last week in the midst of some congestion. There doesn't seem to be a lot of directional conviction even after the opening. There are some large orders on the bid below 46.73 so they might eventually take it down to get filled.
uodate: end of day
Price bounced between the POC's with 11-12 ticks of overshoot. I was not around for the end of day push..
Entered on retracement to VWAP and ORH after an impulse move out of the OR and higher low. Target Thursday's POC at 47.10
Bids appeared below price and CD was at a major overnight swing so when price made a move in my direction I tightened and was taken out at BE. Not real crazy about the slow nature of the day so thought best to be prudent and wait for better ops.
Moving to BE was the correct decision. Price moved +8t in my favor before reversing past my initial stop.
Clarity has been rather difficult to find these past few days. We are in the middle of a long term range with a mid term uptrend. I have four hypos this morning depending on how the market reacts to Friday's POC at 47.40 to the upside and the retest of Thursday's POC at 47.10 to the downside. As usual, wait for the market to reveal its intentions.
Tried to enter on the way down but the pull backs were too shallow so I missed the whole move. These two trades were an attempt to scale in long after price bounced off the 8/15 POC and showed impulsive action. Looking for the 85 area.
The pull back did not bounce as anticipated so I moved to exit the two contracts at BE. Stops were missed by just a couple ticks thankfully.
My bias is short until price can make its way through yesterday's POC at 46.41. Of course inventory can blow everything up pretty fast but until 7:30 I should be trading in the downward direction. There is not much to stop price until the 45.20 area.
As usual in these situations tactics become most important. Price can retrace upwards as much as 55 ticks and still be valid for shorts, so where to enter? This is what makes trading trend days hard with smaller accounts. The macro scenarios all involve some sort of retracement with varying degrees of pull back from 20 ticks up to 55 ticks:
I had the same conundrum this morning. Just "knew" it was going lower but didn't know the path it'd take to get there. I also wanted to have some size which further complicated the 11t open. I used eth VWAP as my first entry top and a tight stop above- it worked but my plan was if that didn't hold I'd fade y_poc as a second attempt to gain entry. First thing this morning I though about a countertrend scalp to y_poc but ditched the idea due to my bearish conviction.
Price has encountered an area of support in the 44.10-44.20 area that could cause a bit of a bounce. Above is the closing range and POC from yesterday. The market could bounce around between these two S/R areas for a while. Look for signs of rebounds and play accordingly. If it breaks past these S/R levels trade in the direction of the break.
Figured if it got blown out Id