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the market continues its rally higher and currently sits at a good sized RTH swing from July 12. Another swing level is above at the 47.60 level.
If price can hold above 46.94 I will be playing it to continue up to at least 47.60. If not, it will likely go down to test the two day RTH POC at around 46.40.
Edit: I'm on the wrong contract. Switching to the new contract but analysis is still the same, just change the numbers.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Tried a short after an impulse move off the top. Target 48.05 area
Got a bit lucky. The retracement was deep, coming within a tick of my stop. This was not a good sign. Upon the resumption move down the stop was moved to BE and taken out.
Moving to BE was correct. The trade was in the wrong direction. Uptrend was still in tact. Traders lose when they go short when they should have gone long.
You nailed it. I have a big problem with steady trend moves like today. I saw where you reversed with no problem. For some reason it is more comfortable to look for the first move in the other direction than to believe the present move, once extended, will continue. I know this about myself but have a hard time believing it can work. In addition, there is the tactical problem of where to enter. The next pull back could be 12 ticks or 42 ticks. With limited resources I can't give it 30 ticks of wiggle room, so I sit on my hands waiting for who knows what. Very frustrating, but I know overcoming this is part of the answer. It's an attitude thing. I just need do it.
The market resides in a sort of no-man's land between major support and resistance. It has come a long way and retraced most of July's down move. I am not heading into the day with any bias since we could see movement in either direction.
Zooming in, there is Y-RTH POC just above price. If it can get above this POC I'll look for long ops. If it remains below I'll look for shorts until it reaches one of the support areas below and bounces in a decisive manner.
recap: I don't think it was a bad trade, just didn't work. Perhaps the high volume traded at the top could have been a warning that more move was to come. Don't know.
This question is going to sound like a dick but its not meant to-
Are you trading to be right or are you trading to make money? A businessman understands there is a risk to purchasing inventory but knows he must do so in order to sell it for a profit- Going to market and not buying sofas would put a furniture store owner out of business, ours is no different... Just something to think about. Sounds like you are aware of the issue but I want to reinforce it. Some one said today they have not had a losing day and have averaged 8-15 ticks- I thought to myself- I wonder what they could really do if they were accepting of loss....
Some things that helped me:
My analysis is mine- the market doesn't care what I think
The mkt will go where its going with or without me
anticipating a loss is far worse than accepting one- anticipating a gain is fun- accepting one is awesome!
You're not being a dick, just trying to help. I appreciate that.
I'm definitely trading to make money, not trying to be right, just right enough. All I'm trying to do is pick a higher percentage of trades that move in my favor before they force me out, within my personal risk profile. Simple as that. Accepting loss is a lot easier when more of your trades work. The same can be said for letting trades run. If you are consistently taking too many trades that don't work, it becomes harder to accept loss, and unfruitful to let trades run. I'm not trying to be 100%. 60% would be fine for now. I don't think I am alone in this struggle.
If I could go a long period of time without a losing day, averaging 8-15 ticks per contract per day, like your example above, I would be over the moon!
Big sell off in the overnight that bounced at Wednesday's RTH high. The question is, will we see another leg down, and if so, where will it stop and reverse? The bounce is about 40 ticks so far. It would not surprise me to see price continue up to test Friday's RTH low. I'll be watching the DOM for big orders to see which way they want to take this thing.
Price waited around for a while then broke. Under the conditions it was a mistake to tighten too much and get taken out at 10t. @Inletcap would not be pleased.
Total Reasonable Movement on the trade was -5t, +32t. Good 2R trade
