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Started:November 23rd, 2014 (09:08 PM) by Tap In Views / Replies:34,205 / 839
Last Reply:October 13th, 2016 (09:57 AM) Attachments:1,597

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Tap In's Corner

Old December 14th, 2014, 05:06 PM   #61 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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bobwest View Post
Nice post. Your first image isn't showing -- this is a known futures.io (formerly BMT) issue, where an image sometimes looks OK to the person who uploaded it, but not to others. Usually when a lot of images got uploaded.

Could you just upload the first one again? Thanks.

Bob.

thanks for the heads up. I edited. Is it fixed now?

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Old December 14th, 2014, 05:48 PM   #62 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tap In View Post
thanks for the heads up. I edited. Is it fixed now?

All good.

Travel Well
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Old December 14th, 2014, 06:35 PM   #63 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Tap In View Post
thanks for the heads up. I edited. Is it fixed now?

Yep.

Bob.

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Old December 15th, 2014, 04:51 PM   #64 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,847 received
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Trades: 3, 1 win, 2 loss. -4t
Should have taken: 14, potential +240t
Courage Ratio: 3/17 = 18%
Cycling with market grade: D

-A great day of opportunity.
-arrived early to take a few minutes to visualize taking set ups.
-took two early that went nowhere, then got timid as price sold off in oil and NQ.
-passed on two text book trades, one in oil, one in NQ
-watched with a lack of belief as markets continued one way trending. I am more comfortable if the retracements are a little more sustained and clearly defined.
-some late day offerings but by then was reluctant to take a loser late in day due to earlier missed opps
-did a better job of marking trades in real time, even though they were not actually taken.
-careful about getting used to this recent volatility as the new norm. It could go on for a while but the spigot could turn off at any time.

Tomorrow: continue working on cycling with market and improving the courage ratio and overall grade. Periodically take a minute to visualize taking trades with confidence and consistency, especially through the first few hours of the morning when volatility is high.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-15_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-15_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-15_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-15_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 16th, 2014, 05:46 PM   #65 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,847 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO
12/16/14
Trades taken: 8, 1 winner, 7 losers, -23t
Should have taken: 4, potential +10
Courage ratio: 8/12 = 67%
Cycling with market Grade: B due to higher CR

Pros:
-took more trades. This is good. Need to stay consistent here. Keep taking trades. Prove out the method or not.
-recognized and entered a set up in oil that I have been trying to internalize. Good for 80 ticks if I stayed in. Naturally got out at BE.
-suppressed urge to press too much. Generally stayed patient.

Cons:
-Was agitated today. Don’t think it caused too many bad trades though. Was in a frustrated state though.
-Only 2 of 8 trades made the 30 tick target. 2 more made 25 ticks. 4 would have been full -15 tick stop outs had I let them go. Would have been a BE day instead of -23. Need more trades that make it to target.
-exited the trade of the day at BE. Could have easily gotten 80 ticks due to the one way nature of the move.

General comments:
-The action was a little tougher to trade for me due to bigger pull backs after trend line breaks than we’ve had in the past few days. I get chopped out when this happens.
-Gold trended but had some larger wider retracements which makes it harder for me to find an entry point.
-look for the top line in a channel by finding the bottom line (or vice versa). This would have saved me a full stop out today.
-Watch the failed breakout for a play to the opposite side. These traps can be quite swift. Got caught on the wrong side of one today.

Overall pleased with how many trades I took. Frustrated that more of the trades didn’t go very far, while I exited the ones that did early.

Tomorrow: keep focusing on taking trades. Manage as is I see fit and don’t worry too much about the management of the trades. The focus is on entering and sorting out whether the trade was a good or not later.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-16_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-16_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-16_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-16_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 17th, 2014, 09:02 PM   #66 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,847 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

12/17/14
Trades: 7, 3 winners, 4 losers, +21t
Should have taken: 3, potential +30
Many more opportunities that I probably should have either taken or marked.
Courage ratio: 7/10 = 70%
Grade: C based on the fact that there were so many great set ups and I didn’t take or mark in real time.

Another monster potential day.

Good news:

-relatively pleased that I took 7 trades. Progress. Really should have attempted at least 7-10 more. There were some really great set ups

-Did some good trend line drawing on NQ. Price responded at some exotic locations to trend lines. Pleased to see this. Getting better at the lines.

-Except for one trade, I was pleased with my patience. Not taking patently stupid trades.

-focused on staying calm during trades and not getting too upset at nowhere or losing trades.

Bad news:

-still too hesitant to enter. Need to trust judgment more.

-trades chosen are not going anywhere. Only one trade made it to +30t. The rest were: +22, +2, +7, +4, +3, +7. Need to figure out why I am taking trades that go nowhere and skipping trades that are spectacular. I am really milking my trading for as much as I can.

-missing too many opps. Need to back out the chart a little to see them. I really need four screens, one for each instrument. Real estate is a little cramped.

General:

- today could have been a monster day. If I counted to 10 instead of exiting my best trade at +30t it could have been a 200t trade. No biggie though, I want my method to make money in chunks of 20-40t and not have to rely on 200 tick moves.

-Kept a tally of every legitimate set-up and how it turned out. Results: 20 set-ups made it to +30t, 20 set -ups got stopped out at -15t and 7 set-ups broke even. If I took every one of them it would have been 47 trades at +300t with $200 commissions. Unlikely I will ever take that many trades but interesting.

Tomorrow:

continue focus on increasing trade numbers. Have a “whatever” attitude. Flat line reaction to a loss or disappointing outcome. Do not let negative emotions cause scar tissue. Place a mark at everything I see as a potentially legit trade, then evaluate the results later.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-17_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-17_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-17_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-17_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 17th, 2014, 09:12 PM   #67 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
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Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,847 received
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Congratulations to my best friend Chris who just passed the combine and live trader prep on his first tries to become a funded Top Step Trader.

Attached is the chart he uses everyday for 80+% winning days. No lines, no indicators, no nothing. Just a black screen and 30 second bars.

There are no "correct" or "incorrect" ways to trades. Only successful and unsuccessful.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

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Old December 18th, 2014, 05:06 PM   #68 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,847 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

12/18.14
Trades: 5, 2 winners, 3 losers. +20t
Should have taken: 1. Potential +30
Courage Ratio: 5/6 = 83%. Got caught up in an experiment and didn’t mark very many “should have” trades (more on that later), so courage ratio is fairly high today
Grade: B. Did a nice job of marking everything I saw per my focus for today. Would be an A but for the lack of actual trades taken on great trends in CL and NQ

The focus for today, aside from taking actual trades and having a good attitude, was to try an experiment. The idea was to mark every set-up that met my minimum criteria to see how things would go if I traded in an almost mechanical fashion. The results were extraordinary.

The minimum criteria was: break clear trend line on close of bar, count 10 to 15 seconds. If price holds, place marker. If price retraces, wait for resumption, then place marker upon resumption.

The stop is -15t, target +30t, and BE when prices gets to +15t then reverse back to entry.

The results: 32 marks, 15 winners, 6 losers, 11 BE, +360 ticks

The purpose in doing this was to see how my method would hold up with minimal discretion on entry and almost no hesitation. Of course there is a lot of discretion when it comes to picking locations, how the trend lines are drawn, and predicting next most likely move etc, but that is an area that will continue to improve.

The goal is to build true confidence in my method so that I can take the foot off the break. The only way a trader can trade with confidence is if they know deep in the recesses of their sole that it works. Without that belief the trader will continue to experience hesitation and missed opportunities

These were encouraging results but I am only cautiously optimistic. CL was a trending mother today so that skewed things a little.

Continue this experiment for a while to see how things hold up over time.

Tomorrow: continue focus on increasing trade numbers. Have a “whatever” attitude. Flat line reaction to a loss or disappointing outcome. Do not let negative emotions cause scar tissue. Place a mark at everything I see as a potentially legit trade, then evaluate the results later.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-18_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-18_gc-summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-18_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-18_nq_summary.png  
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Old December 19th, 2014, 04:59 PM   #69 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,847 received
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Tap In View Post
12/18.14

Tomorrow: continue focus on increasing trade numbers. Have a “whatever” attitude. Flat line reaction to a loss or disappointing outcome. Do not let negative emotions cause scar tissue. Place a mark at everything I see as a potentially legit trade, then evaluate the results later.

12/19/14
Trades: 1, 0t
Should have taken: 0
Courage ratio: 100% but really was more focused on the experimental marked trades.
Grade: B. I didn’t really like the markets today so I am relatively content with only taking one trade. Lots of backfilling and slow deliberate movement making holding trades difficult. 15 ticks up, 24 ticks back, etc. I hate going into the red when price has already travelled 1R.

The one trade was actually a very nice trade that I got scared out of. I hope to get over this tendency once I see more of my trades make it to target, or at least 1R, on a consistent basis.

Depending on the results of the experimental marked areas over the next week or so, these may turn into the “should have” trades. This would be interesting because there are far more of them, which will make keeping a high Courage Ratio a challenge

Regarding the experiment, 21 areas marked and broken down in two ways:

1) If move to BE after reaching +15t: 6 wins, 7 losses, 9 BE, +75t
2) If not move to BE after reaching +15t: 10 wins, 11 losses, +135t

Today, not moving to BE was better. I also tracked the real time P/L. Max day's draw down would have been -30t. Not intolerable.

Overall pleased with my focus, marking trades, and the results on an otherwise slow moving and choppy day in the markets.

Attached Thumbnails
Tap In's Corner-2014-12-19_cl_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-19_gc_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-19_ng_summary.png   Tap In's Corner-2014-12-19_nq_summary.png  

Last edited by Tap In; December 19th, 2014 at 05:12 PM.
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Old December 21st, 2014, 05:11 PM   #70 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bend, OR
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker/Data: TOS, Global Futures/OEC
Favorite Futures: CL, GC, NG, YM, 6E, ZN
 
Tap In's Avatar
 
Posts: 910 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2,060 given, 1,847 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Weekly recap: 12/15/14 to 12/19/14
24 trades: 7 wins, 17 losers, +14t minus commissions
Should have taken: 22, potential +310 ticks
Courage Ratio: 23/45 = 51%

Notes:

-on trend days just keep taking trades

-on less trendy looking days when price has repeated trouble going one direction, look for an opportunity in the other. Look for the failed BO for trading the opposite direction

-When NQ is loose in a pattern entries that look extended often do not have much retracement so 15 tick stops are still safe.

-On some days there are retracements and consolidations after TL breaks. Other days price just takes off and never looks back. Try to gauge early what kind of day it might be

-Look for channel development by drawing lines on the backside TL of the channel.

-In clear trends, look for smaller TL breaks within larger channels with two or three waves for earlier entries for trend resumption.

-Opportunities when price back tests and rides the channel line after a break. Look for entry on sign of resumption.

-Be careful of trading into the "real" channel line which can be predicted off the backside swings

-Watch for choppy wavy action with trend that creates a tight channel. This action is often a precursor to a breakout in the direction of the waves. A series of higher lows or lower highs in choppy, wavy action is a sign of accumulation or distribution. Look for 3 retracements.

-Blow off moves after news events can create great swift opps in other direction.

-Stay calm during losing and nowhere trades. Do not let negative reactions create psychological scar tissue.

-Increase trades taken quantities. Have a "whatever" attitude.

Tomorrow: continue focus on increasing trade numbers. Have a “whatever” attitude. Flat line reaction to a loss or disappointing outcome. Do not let negative emotions cause scar tissue. Watch for moves in opposite direction in non "open field" markets. Place a mark at everything I see as a potentially legit trade, then evaluate the results later.


Last edited by Tap In; December 21st, 2014 at 05:17 PM.
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