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Tap In's Corner

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  #601 (permalink)
 Tap In 
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Tricky situation to start the week. Big impulse move overnight. I expect more movement to the upside. However, there is a lot of space to the downside that could be tested before that happens. The trick will be to determine when the retracement is over and the resumption has begun. There are some high volume traded prices at 49.56 and 49.45. These could be stopping points.

To the upside we have retraced the down move from 5/31 so there is a chance the up move is over for a while.

I'll need to use the opening range for structure.




Mid day update: Price could not break through the top congestion and has now test the early morning break out. Could be a bounce here. Otherwise there are a couple more targets below.



Update, end of day: the bounce happened, as anticipated


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  #602 (permalink)
 Tap In 
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I benefited from a mistake this morning on my only trade so far. Accidentally entered with three contracts (left over setting from replay on the weekend), and was able to shed two at +5t. The third was BE. Total +10t.

The entry was a BO of a short pause after a larger impulse move. @KahunaDog would probably say it was a late entry, which I would not disagree with. However, I could not find a way to enter with confidence down around the 49.50 area, and I did not want to take a break out trade until price cleared some heavily traded areas below the OR top.

It was the type of trade that could have run for a while coming out of the large consolidation area, but didn't.

Comments welcome


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  #603 (permalink)
 KahunaDog 
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With respect, why do you think bo style trading is a good one in oil?

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  #604 (permalink)
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KahunaDog View Post
With respect, why do you think bo style trading is a good one in oil?

Like anything in trading there is a time for all styles. The conditions for break out trading oil are not right all the time, but when there is energy in the market, with liquidity waiting at distant levels, it will often move away from entry rapidly with momentum carrying price great distances. Natural gas and gold are like that as well. Instruments like ES tend to do a lot of back filling making break out trading more difficult. I try not to just take any ol' breakout, but choose the conditions where I think there is potential for an explosive move (could do better admittedly).

That said, I am working on ways to enter earlier within my risk tolerance. I can envision a day where I scale in on a pull back then add on the breakout.


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  #605 (permalink)
 Tap In 
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Price broke 16 ticks above the high for the year in the early morning. We could have a trend day up if it holds above 50.21. It may need some more fuel so it would not surprise to have it retrace to the 50.00 area and retest the early move up.

To the downside I need to be ready for a sell off from this top because there are lots of areas below that have not been touched.



Update: First trade was on and stopped at BE. It made it to 13 ticks and the top before reversing. Was playing for an opening range move out the top but didn't materialize.

Update Mid day: the 50.00 area held for a couple of bounces. Price currently above the main resistance area of yesterday, now support. 2 trades for +5t total. Both reach 1R, so that's positive. Recent lackluster days making trading tough.



Update, end of day. Price did end up breaking up near the close.


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  #606 (permalink)
 Tap In 
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Once again the best move so far happened in the overnight. Time will tell if price will continue its upward drive.

If it does it could happen from here or at any number of points of heavily traded prices that will act as support. The tricky part on days like today is figuring out when the retracements are over. This is where someone with a large account and scaling in can be an advantage, but that is not me. So, I will have to wait for signs to determine when the next move is taking place. These signs include: accumulation around a specific price, higher lows, impulse moves in direction of trend, some sort of CD event.

To the downside I will have to see some pretty good evidence that the market is attacking lower prices to take a short.

Oil inventory day could shake things up a bit as well.



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  #607 (permalink)
 KahunaDog 
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good work keep at it

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  #608 (permalink)
 Tap In 
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6/8/16 Wednesday
Combine Trades: 5
Dayís P/L: $142

3 for 5 in getting to 1R but not much further. CL continues to range each day making catching runners difficult. Since I am tending to enter at the edges I wonít get much more than 1R until price decides to move. The overnight action has been strong with consolidation later. Very tricky trading lately.

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  #609 (permalink)
 Tap In 
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KahunaDog View Post



couple things from my perspective
he is right, but you are also right.
One has to know when to kill a trade. A 3R loss is bad.

You may get many +3, +6, 10x or so trades, then a runner. As another journal in here mentioned, you may get cL days 2-4x a month that will make the bulk, while the rest imo is just paying the lights.
Also imo for you to be able to trade cL like this you have to have a very good understanding of a number of things that evolve and how the market works, instituions work and how price works. It's very difficult and you have to be able to kill a trade without blinking and know it was the right decision, even if it goes 50ticks.

From what I read of your journal, you imo need more context in interpreting where price is at and where it can go. I think it would help if instead of looking for breakouts, look for where it consolidates. The opposite of what you are currently doing, this will lead to the ability to anticipate and be ready for the breakout as you are already entered from the consolidation to your bias.
You also noted more of your trades occur at 8pst, why not trade oil in europe or begin right before the open. That imo is more appropriate for an oil break out trader.These are my opinions. They are a suggestion and in no way malicious. It's just I see you trying hard.

You are correct, Ideally I would like to enter positions well before breakouts, and am working on ways to find those areas. Took one today on a retrace to consolidation.

I would be interested in hearing more of your thoughts on market direction and institutional influence, via PM if that is more suitable.

I appreciate your interest in my progress.

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 Tap In 
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I start the day with a short bias. Once again price made a 100 tick move overnight. Time will tell if this sell off will continue during RTH or we consolidate in a range like previous days. For now I'll be looking to find an entry that plays a continuation down. There is a lot of room to the down side that has not been tested so a trend day is possible.

That said I need to be nimble and ready for clues in both directions because the overnight move needs some testing too.




Update, end of day: No combine trades today but gaining confidence in my blueprint reads. Uncanny how price returns to breakout areas and to areas of high volume trade. Today after bounce off the first support area identified the market returned to the first resistance area identified, with a pause at a high volume area that developed during market hours.


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  #611 (permalink)
 Tap In 
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Once again the Europeans seem to be having all the fun. There are several levels to the down side that could hold up price, including right here. The 50.00 area to the upside could serve as resistance. I will be looking for opportunity from one side of a box to the other until the market proves it wants to move. The only caveat is that there is thickness on the bid today which could mean more downside movement until it is absorbed.



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 Tap In 
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6/10/16 Friday
Combine Trades: 2
Dayís P/L: $162

Two trades Friday. Both longs anticipating a move from the lower side of the blueprint box to the upper side. Both trades were retracements after breakouts to the tops of highly traded areas at the bottom of the box.

I have been using footprint set to 2 and/or 3 ticks per level to identify areas were a lot of trade takes place. I will then use priceís reaction to these areas as places to initiate trade. Itís a work in progress but I think I am developing a workable system.

There were a couple opportunities that I passed on out of shear lack of trust that could have made this a very good day. I am hoping that as I see my theories play out positively with more regularity I will be more inclined to take these trades.

Oil has been behaving very strangely lately with great Globex moves followed by ranges during RTH. It will not be this way forever. There will come a time when the opposite happens and volatility will pick up during the hours I trade. This is when long moves will occur. Be ready for it.

Combine is still alive after 37 trading days. It is costing money in terms of renewal fees but it is good to have a very specific goal to shoot for.

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 Tap In 
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No bias to start the day. Price currently resides in an area of multiple swing lows so we could see a bounce at any time. To the upside there is a wide area from 48.73 to 49.00 that needs to be tested and could act as resistance. Need to be patient and wait for clear opportunities with good potential.



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 Tap In 
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Price is sitting near the same area as yesterday's open, with several larger swing areas below. My hypothesis is that it will push a little further down today, but it could then bounce up again at any time off of one of these swings.

To the upside there are several areas as marked from the sell off yesterday afternoon and last night that could be tested. There is no evidence as of yet of larger players active in the market today. I'll keep a look out for those first big orders for a clue as to which way they want to take it today.



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Oil inventory day and FOMC. The market continues to slowly grind its way toward a major low volume node at around 47.23. Whether it gets there today remains to be seen.



Right now there is resistance above in the 48.15 area and support below all the way from 47.76 to 47.55. Look to the opening range for structure. Also look for highly traded prices to develop to use as backstops for retrace entries. Not many have formed as of yet this morning.


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  #616 (permalink)
 Tap In 
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No trades the past couple days.

Price currently sits just below a major swing and low volume node on the 2h chart. The volume in the market seems low at this point but there are larger orders on the bid. No major news after 5:30.



With this I have two hypothesis:

Hypo 1: price finds support very soon, then bases up to rally off this major swing.

Hypo 2: price works its way back up to some sort of resistance level then continues to test lower




I would say either hypothesis is about equally possible. In the immediate term I will take a long if volume starts to accumulate at these levels. Otherwise I will wait for some sort of impulse move to the long side and a pull back.

I will look for shorts when price has had a chance to move up into a resistance area of higher trade.

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 Tap In 
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Rollover day.

The trend on my time frame is obviously up. It began after a test of a break out area from May. The difficulty of today will be in determining where support is located. Since price sort of stair stepped up overnight, with no clear areas of strong trading, it is anyone's guess where it will stop and reverse, if it is going to do so. I'll need to lean on my 2X and 3X footprint charts to find areas of heavy trade.

Of course, there is always the possibility of retracing all the way back to the bottom, but for now my bias is up and looking for support.



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 Tap In 
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The trend is up but the 50.00 area could be a turn around point. Price has hit is twice so it will be interesting to see where it goes from here. The resistance range is all the way to 50.35 so it could test it a little more.

To the downside I am looking at the 49.62 area as the beginning of support.

There is very little volatility so far

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High volatility today on the Brexit vote. I need to be very selective in my trading as smaller stops are at greater risk. Find the small streams among the large river.

Price is currently bouncing between ever narrowing levels. There is plenty to be tested above 48.45 and below 47.31. With my stop, bullish and bearish sentiments could change may times today. Be patient yet flexible.


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 Tap In 
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After yet another frustrating day a week ago Friday where I lost on nearly every trade and came close to my daily max loss, I decided this past week, as @GruttePier has suggested, to make some major changes in my trading style. Most of the changes will be tactical in nature.

Try as I might to be a momentum/continuation trader, as some seem to have perfected so well, more often than not I end up on the wrong side of the market, selling at, what is in hindsight, a discount, and buying at a premium. With a lot of patience and discretion, the best I have managed to do with this style is average about 50/50 to +1R, with less than 20 percent of my trade ideas making +2R or beyond. Trading price risk is fine if there is follow through and the trader has found the formula to identify these conditions, but I have struggled to pick the right moments. Too often I enter after price has made the majority of, or at least half of, its move. Apart from Brexit, the action in oil over the past few weeks has not helped. After too much time beating my head against the wall, changes must be made.

The recent Brannigan Barret context webinar was impactful when he talked about trade location in relation to the trend and market position. Others on FIO have been influential: @FuturesTrader71, @Inletcap, @GruttePier, @KahunaDog. I am ready to try an approach that has been very uncomfortable for me, namely, trading information risk. This will include fading range edges, fading significant price levels, and entering on pull backs without confirmation. I will continue to use many of the chart templates and evaluation tools that I have been using. My goal is to take 80% of my trades on information risk, with an occasional momentum play when conditions are just right. At the end of the day, I want to look back on my charts and see the little entry triangles on the other side of the swings!

This first week showed me some promise with the new tactic. Aside from some wild attempts during the evening of Brexit to catch a quick 80 tick mover (almost got one), I added to the account. More importantly, I found that price spent a lot more time in my favor rather than against me, and therefore, profits came quicker, and I was able to get out of some trades at around BE when it was apparent that price was going nowhere. Also had more 2R+ movers.

I think what I will find is that my 1R stats may drop a bit until I get better at identifying significant levels, but I will be able to turn some of the losers into BE and get a lot more out of the winners. The challenges will be in identifying good levels to trade off, and overcoming the fear of getting run over. There is something comfortable about having a recent small swing level behind me rather than trading in space, but that comfort comes with a cost. Time will tell how it goes.

Combine update: 45 trading days, 200 trades, still hovering at around minus $600.

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 shzhning 
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can you please define what is "trading information risk"? never heard of that before.

from what you described, it sounds like mean reversion type of trade. is this correct?

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 Tap In 
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shzhning View Post
can you please define what is "trading information risk"? never heard of that before.

from what you described, it sounds like mean reversion type of trade. is this correct?

Information risk is a term I learned from FT71 and have heard others use. Not sure if it is industry-wide though. It is when you enter without having all the "information" as to the market's intention. One example is entering on a pull back before the pull back has shown itself to be finished. The risk is that price keeps retracing and runs you over. If price turns and resumes, you often have a better price and more potential in the trade.

Price risk is when you wait for the market to stop, turn and resume in the original direction. You enter at a worse price but you have more information as to the market's supposed intention.

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 GruttePier 
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Tap In View Post
After yet another frustrating day a week ago Friday where I lost on nearly every trade and came close to my daily max loss, I decided this past week, as @GruttePier has suggested, to make some major changes in my trading style. Most of the changes will be tactical in nature.

That's a brave and wise decision!
After spending such amount of effort in a method and not getting better, you're at the limits of its potential. A wise decision to try major changes.

My suggestion is to experiment with looking at context, creating a thesis and determining the trade locations. Once you've done that, you are in execution mode and will be taking trades in line with your bias. Repeat this every day and evaluate it after a month.

Looking forward to the changes you'll be making!



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 jackbravo 
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GruttePier View Post
That's a brave and wise decision!
After spending such amount of effort in a method and not getting better, you're at the limits of its potential. A wise decision to try major changes.

My suggestion is to experiment with

looking at context
creating a thesis and
determining the trade locations


Once you've done that, you are in execution mode and will be taking trades in line with your bias. Repeat this every day and evaluate it after a month.

Looking forward to the changes you'll be making!



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This is what I've been trying to do last 4-5 months. I have a hard time though sticking with trade locations, if price action looks adverse, always thinking thesis might be wrong (as it is about 1/2 the time). I think that's what Inletcap does though, with expert execution.

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 Tap In 
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jackbravo View Post
This is what I've been trying to do last 4-5 months. I have a hard time though sticking with trade locations, if price action looks adverse, always thinking thesis might be wrong (as it is about 1/2 the time). I think that's what Inletcap does though, with expert execution.

It is a little unnerving watching price come at you, especially if it is doing so at speed. It's probably worth staying on the the sidelines just a moment or two to see if it shows any signs of stopping. I've avoided a few trains this way, but if the level is good, price will often react quickly which means getting a slightly worse price.

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GruttePier View Post
That's a brave and wise decision!
After spending such amount of effort in a method and not getting better, you're at the limits of its potential. A wise decision to try major changes.

My suggestion is to experiment with looking at context, creating a thesis and determining the trade locations. Once you've done that, you are in execution mode and will be taking trades in line with your bias. Repeat this every day and evaluate it after a month.

Looking forward to the changes you'll be making!



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I'll do that. I know you don't trade oil but if you see something in my context, thesis or trade location that doesn't seem right please let me know. Thanks!

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Took one trade off the opening range high and a resistance area. Currently I see no clear future trade locations.

Bias is neutral because we are at a previous RTH low from 6/16 so we could get a bounce to test many of the overnight sell off levels. To the upside is a gap to 47.36.


On the other hand the longer term trend is down. At around 46.40 is another major swing from the overnight on 6/16.


possible scenarios:


Right now wait for more clear directional move and developing order flow

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Lots of churning happening in this area around the overnight swing of 6/16.



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Price broke up from the heavily traded area from 46.32 to 46.41 to recharge for another move down. There is thickness on the bid today so I'm anticipating more down moves until these orders get absorbed and disappear. Trading sim right now testing some theories.





Interesting heavily traded areas on the way down on either absorption or profit taking or both.


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Only one trade in the combine account. +10 on information risk. Good trade, fading the OR at a resistance area.

The market was stuck in an area that could have gone either way for much of the morning. With this uncertainty looming, I switched to sim to test some ideas around entering on pullbacks and made a little over $200 in sim. Most of the trades were taken long at discount and short at premium. I can see how this might be the right way to go. Much more to learn though.

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Bias is bullish.
Strong buying into the close and continuing overnight.
Above is the point of control at 47.94 from Friday. Will reevaluate the bias if there is a larger reaction from there. Significant levels mapped out.
Longs at discount for now.
Look for building volume clusters to trade off of.


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I was sort of caught off guard by the action this morning. Felt price was going to reach the POC of Friday before turning down. Took two longs for +9t total. Continued looking for longs but price is not respecting any support levels. Short was the play but pull backs are tiny. Hard to trade these straight moves unless you've entered from far above. Thankfully traded in sim from the early wins. Have not done well as they have all been longs.

Currently at the RTH high from yesterday. Could get a tradable bounce.



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Long term sentiment is bullish, Mid term in neutral, short term changes constantly. On the macro picture, I think price will have more movement to the upside to test higher levels:



In the immediate term, price is in the middle of a 55 tick range. I'll either look to trade the edges of the range or wait for a strong indication of a move in either direction and take a pull back of an impulse move. The inventory report will change things. Sitting on hands for now:



Update, end of day: the blueprint was pretty accurate today on the macro and immediate hypos. The red hypo played out nicely today. Though the low at 48.01 happened during the news, there were plenty of opportunities to make good money on the way up the 50.00.



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Two trades both shorts off resistance levels at the close. Did not have the conviction to take other opportunities earlier in the day, but I'm getting there.

Trade 1: reversal attempt off the RTH POC of 6/23. Price wanted to overshoot so I got out at BE

Trade 2: same trade but this time price hit the nice round number of 50.00, filled a bunch of contracts then quickly reversed. On the reversal the large orders on the offer that were previously higher immediately backfilled in the wake of price, indicating they were desperate to get filled before price went lower. The entry was on a small pull back on the impulse.


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 rintin2x 
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Phewww...finally catch up with all your journal. Keep it up, im looking forward for the update / future posts.

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After retesting most of the Brexit breakdown yesterday and loading the bus, it's time to take it back down. Long term, mid term and short term bias is down to start the day.


To the upside: there are clusters of heavily traded areas starting from 48.92 up to 48.99, and then again at Yesterday's RTH POC and an overnight swing low.

To the downside: there is some minor support around the 48.73 area then more major support at the 48.32 area. I believe price will be going after this area at the very least.

I will be trading from the short side until further developments.




Update, end of day: the levels played out pretty well again today. Price bounced around from node to node



The red hypo played out with price pushing down a little farther than anticipated before bouncing up to yesterday's POC and retracing 60 ticks or so.


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2 combine trades for 0t and 10t. I took both trades according to my morning blueprint, so I am pleased that I was able to follow the plan. Tried to get into the sell off late in the day by trailing a limit order but price never retraced far enough to get a fill.

trade 1, short, 0t: price looked weak, entered on a retrace of an impulse continuation move. Was expecting price to move lower at the open which it eventually did but the chop was too much for me. Entering on small pullbacks instead of breakouts is enabling me to get out many times unscathed when the trade doesn't appear to be working.

trade 2, short, +10t: faded yesterday's RTH POC. Proud of this trade since it was planned well in advance, executed perfectly and it worked (not that it will every time). Price eventually ran 57 ticks in my favor.

Also made about $320 in sim.


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Bias is neutral. Price has formed a box sitting on top of the 6/24 RTH POC and the RTH high of 6/28.



The choice this morning is to either trade the edges of the box or wait for price to break out of the box before considering a trade. As usual look for longs at discount and shorts at premium.



Update, end of day: reaction at predetermined S/R...




Scenario blue played out today after the early range bottom held...


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Monthly Recap June 2016
Live Trades: 0, live account still at $2840.17

Combine trades: 70
Monthís TST Combine P/L: $132.40

Lotís of churning going on right now. Taking many trades and hovering around break even. 50 trading days in the combine and still slightly underwater.

June was a tale of two halves. The first two weeks were business as usual, entering trades the way I have been for the past year and a half, with an occasional ďnewĒ tactic thrown in. The result was the usual lackluster 50/50 trades to 1R, with an anemic number of trades going beyond. Too many buys at premium and sells at discount.

For the past two weeks I changed tactics completely and attempted to do the opposite: sell at premium and buy at discount. While the number of trades making 1R was still around even odds, there were far more trade ideas that reached +2R and beyond. Two weeks of trading is a not enough time to make definitive judgement but the trend is in the right direction.

The stats for the past two weeks are as follows:

TST Combine trades: 31
Reached +1R: 16 (52%)
Reached +2R while moving stop to BE after +1R: 7 (22%)
Reached +2R without touching initial stop: 3 (9.6%)
Total reaching +2R: 10 (32%)

While 32% reaching +2R is still not great, itís a far cry better than before the changes. The reason for the improvement is obvious, getting into trades sooner allows for more overall favorable movement. Of course the key to getting in sooner is to pick good S/R levels. I am not sure I could have done this successfully in the past (still needs to be proven over the long haul), but I have tools now that I didnít have in the past that are helping to find key levels. Lots of work to be done still.

Perhaps the more important stats are the following:

-Of the 15 trades that failed to reach 1R, I was able to exit 11 at or near BE, taking only 4 losses.
-Of the 16 trades that successfully reached 1R, I only exited 3 without a profit, making money on 13 and taking no losses.

These facts seem to hold the key. For a long time I was skeptical that I could make money if only 50% of my trades reached 1R. With the new tactics I have noticed that price spends more time in my favor, even if itís only a few ticks. This allows for early exits at BE when things arenít going as planned.

All in all I am pleased with these initial results, but hesitant to get too excited. More work yet to be done.

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 bobwest 
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For the past two weeks I changed tactics completely and attempted to do the opposite: sell at premium and buy at discount. While the number of trades making 1R was still around even odds, there were far more trade ideas that reached +2R and beyond. Two weeks of trading is a not enough time to make definitive judgement but the trend is in the right direction.
...
-Of the 15 trades that failed to reach 1R, I was able to exit 11 at or near BE, taking only 4 losses.
-Of the 16 trades that successfully reached 1R, I only exited 3 without a profit, making money on 13 and taking no losses.

All in all I am pleased with these initial results, but hesitant to get too excited. More work yet to be done.

Nice to see the progress.

These changes are seeming to work better for you. Perhaps you are finding your game now.

Good work. Keep at it.

Bob.

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Even though the long term trend is short I am keeping a neutral bias on my time frame. The market has traveled almost 200 ticks over the weekend. It could go many more to the downside, or begin to test some of the areas overnight in an effort to recharge for another move.

There are several places that could act as support and resistance from where price is now, none of which look particularly obvious or compelling. Therefore, I will not trade them blindly, but instead use them as "heads up" points for possible trend reversals.

I will be taking my first trade with three contracts today, then adjust thereafter depending on the results of the first trade.


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In hindsight today was a beautiful trending day that yielded winner after winner for the trend continuation trader. These days are difficult for me because as the day develops in real time, the energy in the market, the slow grinding price action and the stair step pull backs seem to signal a trend reversal at any moment. I have difficulty finding places to sell at discount, since most pull backs look like the beginning of reversals and there are no clear resistance areas to lean on.

One technique I have been looking at is to wait for highly traded prices (pink boxes on the chart) to develop, then fade counter trend breakouts from these areas. Doing this today would have yielded three very nice R/R trades. Adding a fade of the OR to this mix would have produced another nice trade.

Of course, on other days, the first one would fail, a loss would be taken, and the trend would change. This is where having the proper perspective comes in. Philosophically, one must have the attitude that failure with this technique is quite possible on any of the pull backs, accept this fact, and take the trades anyway until the time it doesn't work. Days like today, with at least four 2R trades, would more than make up for the one loss.


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Price is very near a major swing from 6/27. I expect a tradable bounce if it were to get there.



Yesterday's RTH low is above at 46.33 which could act as resistance to the upside. Bias is neutral, with these two points acting as magnets.


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Price is very near a major swing from 6/27. I expect a tradable bounce if it were to get there.



Yesterday's RTH low is above at 46.33 which could act as resistance to the upside. Bias is neutral, with these two points acting as magnets.


Hey @Tap In, this is a nice journal you have here. Very neat!

I just have a few questions I would like to ask:

1.) In the first image, you have a previous POC labeled around 46.40. Do you think POC still have value once they have been traded "over" a few times? I ask because the 46.40 price has been traded many times since the POC was made on 6/27.

2.) I see you draw swing highs and lows on your Cumulative Delta indicator. I am a fan of the CD myself. Do you use those swings points as S/R or just as a visual? If you use it as S/R, do you think it has any value?

3.) What are the blue and red boxes on the charts?

I am just curious about your thoughts! I am not trying to be rude or anything. I hope you are not offended

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Hey @Tap In, this is a nice journal you have here. Very neat!

I just have a few questions I would like to ask:

1.) In the first image, you have a previous POC labeled around 46.40. Do you think POC still have value once they have been traded "over" a few times? I ask because the 46.40 price has been traded many times since the POC was made on 6/27.

2.) I see you draw swing highs and lows on your Cumulative Delta indicator. I am a fan of the CD myself. Do you use those swings points as S/R or just as a visual? If you use it as S/R, do you think it has any value?

3.) What are the blue and red boxes on the charts?

I am just curious about your thoughts! I am not trying to be rude or anything. I hope you are not offended

I generally agree with your statement about POC's, except that the POC from 6/27 has never been tested from below during RTH. That said, the number I was really interested in was 46.33 which was the RTH low from yesterday.

Regarding CD, I often see turnarounds when CD hits a major swing while price is also doing something significant. Also, I watch CD for signs of strength and weakness compared to price.

The long boxes are S/R areas. The small boxes are prices that are heavily traded.

Thanks

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I generally agree with your statement about POC's, except that the POC from 6/27 has never been tested from below during RTH. That said, the number I was really interested in was 46.33 which was the RTH low from yesterday.

Regarding CD, I often see turnarounds when CD hits a major swing while price is also doing something significant. Also, I watch CD for signs of strength and weakness compared to price.

The long boxes are S/R areas. The small boxes are prices that are heavily traded.

Thanks

Thank you for the answers and the insight! I guess it hadn't occurred to me to look at which direction the POC was tested.

Thank you again! Good luck out there today!

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Thank you for the answers and the insight! I guess it hadn't occurred to me to look at which direction the POC was tested.

Thank you again! Good luck out there today!

Yah, support becomes resistance and all that. I also think it matters whether it is tested during globex or RTH. In the end it traded through, but did have a small reaction that could have been taken. I did not

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Long term sentiment is up. Price is currently hovering around the RTH low from 7/1 and a gap fill. There are two RTH POC's above and yesterday's RTH high below. On the macro, I will be playing for price to attack the two POCs above to test Tuesday's sell off




The immediate Hypos are:
1) price breaks out of this range and I enter on a small retrace
2) price goes down to test a developing POC around 47.70 then rebounds.

Inventory at 8:00


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Price currently resides in a 50 tick box. My choice is to wait for a break out/retrace or fade the edges. I will probably opt for the latter. Non farm payroll report has ES rallying. This may portend the same in CL. Long term bias is down but CL could rally to test some of the areas above from yesterday.


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It took me a while to come up with a plan today. Hypos 1 and 2:



Update, end of day: Neither of the two hypos worked but did get some reactions off the marked S/R levels


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Long term trend is up, with a lot more potential to the upside. The directive today will be to get on board. Try to find the smaller streams within the big river. Of course, there is always the potential that the overnight rally is finished but until there is evidence of a change in sentiment I should focus on the long side.


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I will be playing for price to test more levels above from yesterday's sell off. On the macro:



The immediate scenarios:


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Price has broken from its 80 tick range of yesterday and appears to be interested in testing more levels above. Not much doubt as to what needs to be done. Until evidence to the contrary, figure out a way to get on board long.


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The expectation this morning is for a continued sell off until we reach some of the support levels below, then re-evaluate based on the market's reaction. For now, the two hypothesis are to wait for a medium to larger sized pull back to go short. The pull back could retrace as far back as Friday's RTH POC, or there may be a high volume node that develops somewhere in between that signals a stopping point.



Edit: Forgot that it is rollover day. Updated chart:



update, end of day:


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Price rebounded strongly in the early morning off of a POC area around 46.38. It is currently working back to another POC in the 45.92 area also around the VWAP. In the short term my bias is down until we hit the VWAP then we'll have to see how price reacts. There seems to be a lot more volume in the market today with clusters of trading happening at various prices. We could be seeing OTF activity so be ready for bigger moves.



Edit, mid day update. The market bounced off Wednesday's RTH POC and is now back in range and hovering around the RTH VWAP. Hard to tell where it is likely to go next. Maybe up to yesterday's POC

two trades so far for 0t and -5t. One worked, one did not.


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The market is currently sitting on the 7/11 lows. Hypo 1 is a continuation to the downside in which I will attempt to find an end point on a retracement for a short. Hypo 2 is a tradable bounce off these lows where I will wait for the market to show its hand to take a long. As usual the inventory report will change everything.



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The market is currently sitting on the 7/11 lows. Hypo 1 is a continuation to the downside in which I will attempt to find an end point on a retracement for a short. Hypo 2 is a tradable bounce off these lows where I will wait for the market to show its hand to take a long. As usual the inventory report will change everything.



What are your settings for your volume profile. I like the way you have it set up...

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Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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What are your settings for your volume profile. I like the way you have it set up...

Sierra charts. My Globex chart is a 30 minute with daily profiles starting at 3:00pm PST. My RTH chart is a 15 minute with daily profiles, pit hours. Standard POC, 70% value area settings.

let me know if you want more specifics

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Sierra charts. My Globex chart is a 30 minute with daily profiles starting at 3:00pm PST. My RTH chart is a 15 minute with daily profiles, pit hours. Standard POC, 70% value area settings.

let me know if you want more specifics

This is how my profile looks. I was wanting your actual profile settings. I want my profile to look like yours.


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This is how my profile looks. I was wanting your actual profile settings. I want my profile to look like yours.

If this doesn't work I'll just take screen shots

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If this doesn't work I'll just take screen shots


I'm somewhat new to SC, where do I put that file?

Thanks in advance.....

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I'm somewhat new to SC, where do I put that file?

Thanks in advance.....

C:\SierraChart\Data

look at your General Settings>Global Settings>Data Files Folder. It will probably say C:\SierraChart\Data. Drop it into that data folder.

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C:\SierraChart\Data

look at your General Settings>Global Settings>Data Files Folder. It will probably say C:\SierraChart\Data. Drop it into that data folder.

That worked. Awesome.....thanks so much.

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Time will tell if yesterday's rally will continue. Price has bounced off of an HVN at 45.40 in the globex and heading for an area around 45.80 that has been the globex POC for the past 4 days.

Hypo 1: if it holds above 45.80 I will play for a continuation to the up side.

Hypo 2: if it bounces off the 45.80 area I will play for more testing to the down side.



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Price sits on yesterday's RTH POC after a push down then back up overnight. Though the overnight trend is up, it could go either way from here. Be patient to let it reveal its intention.

Hypo 1: price pushes past the POC to continue to the upside. Enter long on pull back to support

Hypo 2; price reverses direction off the POC. Enter short on pull back to resistance.



Update: end of day. Hypo 2 played out. Had difficulty finding a place to get short on a retracement. Did manage a +10t long after price based up around the 44.00 area.


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You're getting pretty good at these volume profile blueprints. Are you finding it helps in your trading yet? Or are you still working on the method?

I am enjoying and learning from your daily overviews.

Bob.

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Price sits on yesterday's RTH POC after a push down then back up overnight. Though the overnight trend is up, it could go either way from here. Be patient to let it reveal its intention.

Hypo 1: price pushes past the POC to continue to the upside. Enter long on pull back to support

Hypo 2; price reverses direction off the POC. Enter short on pull back to resistance.


I am short from 44.91.....this was also last week's VAL on the weekly TPO......some confluence there....So with any luck and follow through, might get a decent size trade out of it today....


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You're getting pretty good at these volume profile blueprints. Are you finding it helps in your trading yet? Or are you still working on the method?

I am enjoying and learning from your daily overviews.

Bob.

The short answer is yes. As you know, there are strategies and there are tactics. Strategically I am getting more confident answering the questions:

where is price trying to go?
what makes it stop and pause, or reverse?

This is where the Globex and RTH profiles have helped a lot.

Tactically I am still trying to work out how to exploit the blueprint with my risk tolerance (around 10 ticks give or take). For this I am using footprint and smaller volume profiles on smaller charts to find entry points on pull backs. I would say that since I focused more on entering on information risk rather than price risk my trade potential has increased, but more importantly, I have been able to get out of losing trades with much less damage, often at BE.

As always, thanks for your encouragement!

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I am short from 44.91.....this was also last week's VAL on the weekly TPO......some confluence there....So with any luck and follow through, might get a decent size trade out of it today....

Awesome trade! I don't have a weekly TPO chart, just composite TPO/VP's for 1 day to 3 yrs. I may want to add it to the confusion!

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CL is in territory last visited in April. Trend is clearly down, there is thickness on the bid, and it is anybody's guess when it might stop. I'll be playing for shorts until there is a clear indication of a bottom and a desire to move higher on my tiny time frame.

Hypos 1 and 2 both involve retracements to resistance for shorts.



Update: end of day. I didn't get much out of the day but at least I read it right and attempted some trades in the right direction. In all fairness the action was very slow and choppy down. The blue hypo more or less played out today. Not hard to call after price broke and held below Friday's low.


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Oil continues to sell off and we are in a similar situation to yesterday. We currently sit on or near a high volume node on a one year extended TPO. We have also taken back most of the leg of an up trend that started in April, so a longer term bounce soon would not be unexpected.



However, there is a lot of liquidity on the bid. Yesterday we saw orders in the 400-500 sitting on some prices. This means the higher time frame players are probably loading up. I'll want to see these orders dry up before expecting too much to the upside. This does not mean I will not take a long if I see the potential for a 10-30 tick move though.



For now, the hypos are similar to yesterday. Both are variations on an expected continued down move.





Update: the situation has changed dramatically in this first hour. I now need to be ready for anything. I have taken three trades, all moved against me but managed to lose on only one of them. -9t so far.



Update, end of day: both hypos were blown out early. However, as mentioned in the blueprint, the bounce was not unexpected. I took a couple of unsuccessful short trades before adjusted to longs. 5 trades, +17t.


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Price sits within a 50 to 80 tick range or wedge depending on how one interprets the edges of support and resistance. There are many possibilities today. Fading the edges will be difficult because the edges are not well defined. Oil inventory should shake things up and provide some answers. Unless a strong move develops before the report I can see doing nothing until CL shows its hand a little more clearly.


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As happens often, oil is found hovering around a key area, in this case yesterday's POC. This means of course that price could go either way from here. Therefore, I will be looking for signs as drawn and taking pull backs to previous minor S/R.



Update: end of day. Price ended up breaking to the downside. Took 4 trades, 3 shorts. Two losses, one win, one BE. 0t on the day minus comm.



The trigger chart


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On the really big picture on the daily chart, we have hit a swing from 4/18



It has made an impulse move to yesterday's POC at the open. In the short term I will look for a retrace area to look for a long. If price breaks down off the POC I will switch to looking short.


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New month, new beginnings. Let's do this thing!

The market is in a big down trend from overnight. We have seen one long leg, a 45 tick retracement led and now a resumption. My bias is down as long as price stays below the 41.20 area. Friday's RTH POC is at 41.13, while the overnight POC is at 41.20. Either of these could be considered resistance areas to look for shorts.



CD is working its way back to the overnight high. Ideally I would like to see it hit the overnight high while price simultaneously hit Friday's POC. This would be a good area to take a short.



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Price sits at the top of an overnight swing high created by Friday's low. This swing high has been tested once, with a retrace of 30 ticks.

To the upside I am looking at two scenarios. One is a breakout and small retrace. The other is a test lower then continued up move.

To the downside, this swing high would hold and test areas lower.



Update: mid day. Price chose the second route to the long side, retracing to 40.31 before nailing the pre-drawn level at around 41.90. It has filled the RTH gap from yesterday so there may be a bounce. However, there are large bids below that I anticipate the market will go after. I will be looking for an area to short as I expect more down movement, perhaps around the OR low and a coinciding LVN.


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Monthly Recap July 2016
Live Trades: 0, live account still at $2840.17

Still plugging along in the combine at 68 trading days and $41 under water. It feels like I made the right choice to revamp my entry tactics but the P/L isnít showing it yet, with only a $185 gain for the month in 63 trades. The percentage of successful trades is up slightly to 57%. More importantly, the number of trades reaching 2R is up quite a bit from the days of waiting for confirmation, to 35%.

Stats for the month:

Trades: 63
Net gain: $185
Price reached 1R: 36 (57%, compared to 52% in June)
Price reached 2R: 22 (35%, compared to 32% in June)
Price reached 2R while moving stop to BE after 1R: 16 (25%)
Price reached 2R while leaving stop alone: 6 (9.5%)
Unsuccessful trades that were exited at or near BE: 13
Successful trades that were exited with almost no profit: 15
Ticks lost by tightening stop before price hit either 1R or -1R: 229
Ticks saved by tightening stop before price hit 1R or -1R: 156
Net ticks lost/saved by tightening stop too early: 73

From these stats it appears that I am losing profits by managing trades too tightly. This would be the expected result as the percentage of successful trades goes up. When a trader is mostly taking losing trades, managing tightly tends to save money.

As documented, the biggest change I made was in regards to my entry tactics, entering at levels rather than waiting for confirmation. Trading levels requires a certain amount of skill and confidence in picking good levels. Otherwise, the trader will just get run over time and again and will be in no better a place than before. For the longest time, I did not possess these skills nor did I have the tools required to find higher probability turning points. Had I tried this a couple years ago I probably would have burned through many more combines. This is not to say I have figured it out, not by a long shot, just that I have found some techniques that at least give me a fighting chance.

Trading this way requires a different mindset as well, with some amount of courage and faith that the levels chosen will hold enough times to be profitable. At first it is quite disconcerting to place a limit order in the market and watch price charge toward it, not knowing if or when it will stop. This is where some philosophical thinking can help. For example, the thought process goes something like this: I took plenty of losses waiting for confirmation. Just because it was more comfortable to wait for confirmation did not make it more reliable. I will take plenty of losses trading levels. However, if I my success rate is the same as it was waiting for confirmation I will be ahead of the game because the trades will have more potential.

Of course, there have been plenty of instances of getting run over by the freight train. These are not enjoyable moments and can have lasting impacts on the confidence. It is in these moments where the philosophy described above comes into play. Even though the trade was a total failure, had no chance, and ended swiftly, it was just one loss among many. Whether it hit my stop in 7 seconds or 7 minutes makes no difference. Regroup, look for the next trade, perhaps in the opposite direction to take advantage of this newly developed momentum.

I have been working on ways to mitigate against getting run over. One way is to wait just a few seconds to see how price reacts at the level. There is a certain look to the market when a level has the potential to fail. These few seconds can help identify these moments. However, with an average stop of 10 ticks, one canít wait too long or they risk falling back into the confirmation risk thing. I will usually use this technique at longer term levels where the trade is against the mid or long term trend. Trend changes don't happen immediately and often provide a couple of opportunities to get in early.

Through this process I have come up with several types of trades:

One is the Impulse-Retrace trade. The market makes a clearly impulsive move with more potential, then retraces anywhere from 10-30 ticks before resuming. If it is a strong impulse Iíll enter blindly at 10-13 ticks of retrace. CL will often turn and run another 20 ticks or more from here. If I can get my stop behind a high volume area from where the market just came, all the better. Otherwise, I will enter at a POC, VWAP or other area identified on smaller charts where price should not go beyond if the original move is real. If price retraces much more than 30 to 35 ticks it probably means the move is over and I need to start considering other options.

Another trade is where in a strong trend the market will pause and trade heavily at a certain price. This can be easily identified on footprint. The market will then try to break out of this high volume area against the direction of the impulse, maybe 1-6 ticks, and then fail. This is where the retail trader is trying to catch a top or bottom. I will place an order on the opposite side of the high volume area in anticipation of the failure. I call this a High Volume Node Break Out Failure.

Another type of trade is the fade of a key area of S/R identified on footprint or volume profile in advance. These are the trades where I will wait a few seconds for clues as to the strength of the level. If the level is strong these are the highest potential trades as they are often areas of trend change.

Lastly is the fade of a range. Fading ranges still gives me the heebie-jeebies so I don't do it often. However, when viewed in hindsight they can represent a virtual ATM machine. Again, a little philosophy helps: A range break out will only succeed once, whereas there might be 3 to 4 failures to pad the account in the meantime.

One advantage of trading levels is that I can often recognize when a trade is in trouble and exit early before taking a full stop out. However, as I examine the stats it appears I was a bit too skittish with my management in July.

I have attached the spreadsheet Iíve been using for the past year to track my trading stats

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The market has retraced about 40% of yesterday's sell off and sits in the area of a swing low from yesterday's overnight and Friday's low. From here it could go either way so I will be waiting for some directional guidance at the open. I expected more down side movement eventually, but am not biased that way yet. We could very well take back a bit more from yesterday's down move before doing so. There are several areas of resistance above that could be tradable.


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The market filled the gap in the overnight from Friday and took back most of Monday's down move. Price currently sits under yesterday's POC. As long as it does so I will be looking to the short side on pull backs. If it holds above the POC on an impulse I will switch to longs.


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Price sits on yesterday's high. Either it pushes through where I will look for a pull back long or it bounces off the high where I will look for a pull back short. I got run over three straight times yesterday so I'll need to exercise some will power to take trades today.


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Price has broken higher overnight and seems to be heading for the 42.80 consolidation area. Bias is up for now and looking for support to enter a long. There are a couple of areas, one being an LVN at around 42.50 and the other being the overnight POC at around 42.34. If it breaks these areas there is strong support at 42.10.


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The long term trend is still up. The medium term trend is down with the market having made a lower high in the overnight. Price currently sits at a swing established during the RTH yesterday. If it holds below this swing I will be looking for it to head towards yesterday's open at 42.35. If it bounces here, it will probably try to reach yesterday's RTH high.


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Price touched the RTH swing high from 8/4 in overnight trading and bounced to the current level. There is still an RTH gap to be filled from 8/5. I am having difficulty determining where the market most likely wants to go at this point so I will wait until there is more clear direction. There are a couple of options marked. Inventory report today as well.



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Long term trend is down but mid term is up. On the RTH chart there are two POC's that boarder current price: one above at 41.92 and one below at 41.52. I'll use these as backstops to determine the short term bias at any given time.


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Combine blown last week. Too much stupid trading, too many losses. The reality is that I was beginning to covet the combine after 78 trading days hovering around break even. After taking some heavy losses a couple days in a row I started to gamble a bit to get back to level. Of course that never works.

I will be starting a new combine Monday, instituting a few changes. First, I will be trading the max of three contracts. I'll either pass it quick or blow it out quick, no more fiddle farting around. At an average of 10 ticks risk per contract I will have around five net losses of wiggle room. This will require some good fortune and good timing to get through.

It will also require patience. I'll need to wait for the best set ups. No more marginal trades. Hopefully by trading more contracts I will be more willing to sit still knowing that catching a good trade will mean larger profits.

Lastly, with rare exceptions I will only trade until 9:00am PST. No more wasting my life on the last 2 1/2 hours of the market. I should be able to accomplish everything I need to in the first three hours.

This business is hard. For those who are successful I congratulate you. I've proved I can be a break even trader, but not a profitable trader. I have put in thousands of hours. Quite frankly I am not sure I have what it takes, but I'm not ready to call it quits. Trading will now be confined to a smaller portion of my time. It will be just something I do in the early morning and for extra income. Maybe this will take some pressure off.

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@Tap In

Really sorry that you blew your combine and I hope my sharing what I see is not going to be taken as a kick in the nuts as that's not my intention. In fact, I'm concerned you are going to through away money as your stated focus is on passing the combine vs trading for profit- if you pass and get funded, then what?

I've read back a few pages on your thread and essentially compared your combine report card to your daily posts. The one thing I keep asking is why you are doing so much analysis ( it's good analysis BTW) and then jumping out of your trade as soon as it just starts to work? Evidence of this is on the report card- your trades are 2 lots and your daily avg win or loss is about $100- dude, that's 5 ticks!!!! Your analysis gives you some great trades, you need to go with them and let them work... If you want to be a scalper, then be a scalper and trade a lot more frequently than you are trading for those ticks but the analysis and posts I've read say otherwise.

Here's what I see- you are a break even trader because you have good analysis but you are not reaching the level of success you want to see because YOU are holding yourself back. Believe in your findings and explore something different once you are in a trade. Your first good win will only come if you let it; Once that happens you just keep duplicating that behavior until its second nature. You can do this the right way- it's not just about passing the combine, getting funded and then being break even- it's about getting paid a rediculous amount of money for your efforts! I'm/We're on your side and hanging around watching- I don't want to get up in your business but if I can help in any way, please don't hesitate to ask. Again, my attempt here is to be motivational as I believe you can do this!!!!

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@Tap In

Really sorry that you blew your combine and I hope my sharing what I see is not going to be taken as a kick in the nuts as that's not my intention. In fact, I'm concerned you are going to through away money as your stated focus is on passing the combine vs trading for profit- if you pass and get funded, then what?

I've read back a few pages on your thread and essentially compared your combine report card to your daily posts. The one thing I keep asking is why you are doing so much analysis ( it's good analysis BTW) and then jumping out of your trade as soon as it just starts to work? Evidence of this is on the report card- your trades are 2 lots and your daily avg win or loss is about $100- dude, that's 5 ticks!!!! Your analysis gives you some great trades, you need to go with them and let them work... If you want to be a scalper, then be a scalper and trade a lot more frequently than you are trading for those ticks but the analysis and posts I've read say otherwise.

Here's what I see- you are a break even trader because you have good analysis but you are not reaching the level of success you want to see because YOU are holding yourself back. Believe in your findings and explore something different once you are in a trade. Your first good win will only come if you let it; Once that happens you just keep duplicating that behavior until its second nature. You can do this the right way- it's not just about passing the combine, getting funded and then being break even- it's about getting paid a rediculous amount of money for your efforts! I'm/We're on your side and hanging around watching- I don't want to get up in your business but if I can help in any way, please don't hesitate to ask. Again, my attempt here is to be motivational as I believe you can do this!!!!

Inletcap, thank you for taking interest and your kind words. I have been a follower and admirer of your commentary and have attempted to adapt some of your ideas into my trading, changing from confirmation risk to information risk trading being the most significant .

Top Step counts each direction as a contract traded, so a round trip trade with one contract will show as two contracts traded on the report. Therefore, most of my trades have been one contract trades with around 10 ticks of risk.

Because I am only trading one contract I will often take profit at 1R because this seems like a logical place to shed some contracts in a multiple contract trade, which I anticipate doing in the future. Anyway, as convoluted as that might sound, that's why I often jump out at 10 ticks. I figure if I cant get to 1R more than 50% of the time something is wrong with my trade picker.

I would welcome any feedback you have but I know you have your own things to worry about. I'll start showing every trade as close to real time as possible. If you see any tendencies please feel free to comment.

Thanks again for reaching out, and thanks for being so transparent with your trading methods.

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Fast start to the morning. Opened the platform to a quick sell off from a failed break out of the overnight highs and decided to take a short on a retest of the POC from the sell off and the VWAP. It was my first three contract trade in the new combine. Thankfully it worked out for a 2R trade.



Last contract exited:



exited the last contract at the right time:


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The long term trend remains up so initially I will be looking for signs of continuation. Price has come a long way retesting much of the down move from May. It has entered an area of previous congestion from July. A break below 46.04 will signal a possible mid term change and to start looking short.



Update, end of day. Price bounced off the second HVN from yesterday


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Entered on retrace to ORH. Reached 1R, moved to BE and was taken out. TRM -1, +11



Update: after exiting the trade, price ended up going -8 ticks against my original entry then +20 ticks in favor, so technically it was a 2R trade. I am satisfied with exiting at BE after reaching 1R because it could have easily failed back down through the ORH.


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the market continues its rally higher and currently sits at a good sized RTH swing from July 12. Another swing level is above at the 47.60 level.



If price can hold above 46.94 I will be playing it to continue up to at least 47.60. If not, it will likely go down to test the two day RTH POC at around 46.40.



Edit: I'm on the wrong contract. Switching to the new contract but analysis is still the same, just change the numbers.

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Tried a short after an impulse move off the top. Target 48.05 area



Got a bit lucky. The retracement was deep, coming within a tick of my stop. This was not a good sign. Upon the resumption move down the stop was moved to BE and taken out.



Moving to BE was correct. The trade was in the wrong direction. Uptrend was still in tact. Traders lose when they go short when they should have gone long.


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No longs today? When you saw that countertrend wasn't going to work did you look for other ideas?

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No longs today? When you saw that countertrend wasn't going to work did you look for other ideas?

You nailed it. I have a big problem with steady trend moves like today. I saw where you reversed with no problem. For some reason it is more comfortable to look for the first move in the other direction than to believe the present move, once extended, will continue. I know this about myself but have a hard time believing it can work. In addition, there is the tactical problem of where to enter. The next pull back could be 12 ticks or 42 ticks. With limited resources I can't give it 30 ticks of wiggle room, so I sit on my hands waiting for who knows what. Very frustrating, but I know overcoming this is part of the answer. It's an attitude thing. I just need do it.

Thanks for noticing.

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The market resides in a sort of no-man's land between major support and resistance. It has come a long way and retraced most of July's down move. I am not heading into the day with any bias since we could see movement in either direction.



Zooming in, there is Y-RTH POC just above price. If it can get above this POC I'll look for long ops. If it remains below I'll look for shorts until it reaches one of the support areas below and bounces in a decisive manner.


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Long at VWAP and Y RTH POC.



Got 7 ticks then reversed



recap: I don't think it was a bad trade, just didn't work. Perhaps the high volume traded at the top could have been a warning that more move was to come. Don't know.


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You nailed it. I have a big problem with steady trend moves like today. I saw where you reversed with no problem. For some reason it is more comfortable to look for the first move in the other direction than to believe the present move, once extended, will continue. I know this about myself but have a hard time believing it can work. In addition, there is the tactical problem of where to enter. The next pull back could be 12 ticks or 42 ticks. With limited resources I can't give it 30 ticks of wiggle room, so I sit on my hands waiting for who knows what. Very frustrating, but I know overcoming this is part of the answer. It's an attitude thing. I just need do it.

Thanks for noticing.

This question is going to sound like a dick but its not meant to-

Are you trading to be right or are you trading to make money? A businessman understands there is a risk to purchasing inventory but knows he must do so in order to sell it for a profit- Going to market and not buying sofas would put a furniture store owner out of business, ours is no different... Just something to think about. Sounds like you are aware of the issue but I want to reinforce it. Some one said today they have not had a losing day and have averaged 8-15 ticks- I thought to myself- I wonder what they could really do if they were accepting of loss....

Some things that helped me:
My analysis is mine- the market doesn't care what I think
The mkt will go where its going with or without me
anticipating a loss is far worse than accepting one- anticipating a gain is fun- accepting one is awesome!

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This question is going to sound like a dick but its not meant to-

Are you trading to be right or are you trading to make money? A businessman understands there is a risk to purchasing inventory but knows he must do so in order to sell it for a profit- Going to market and not buying sofas would put a furniture store owner out of business, ours is no different... Just something to think about. Sounds like you are aware of the issue but I want to reinforce it. Some one said today they have not had a losing day and have averaged 8-15 ticks- I thought to myself- I wonder what they could really do if they were accepting of loss....

Some things that helped me:
My analysis is mine- the market doesn't care what I think
The mkt will go where its going with or without me
anticipating a loss is far worse than accepting one- anticipating a gain is fun- accepting one is awesome!

You're not being a dick, just trying to help. I appreciate that.

I'm definitely trading to make money, not trying to be right, just right enough. All I'm trying to do is pick a higher percentage of trades that move in my favor before they force me out, within my personal risk profile. Simple as that. Accepting loss is a lot easier when more of your trades work. The same can be said for letting trades run. If you are consistently taking too many trades that don't work, it becomes harder to accept loss, and unfruitful to let trades run. I'm not trying to be 100%. 60% would be fine for now. I don't think I am alone in this struggle.

If I could go a long period of time without a losing day, averaging 8-15 ticks per contract per day, like your example above, I would be over the moon!

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Big sell off in the overnight that bounced at Wednesday's RTH high. The question is, will we see another leg down, and if so, where will it stop and reverse? The bounce is about 40 ticks so far. It would not surprise me to see price continue up to test Friday's RTH low. I'll be watching the DOM for big orders to see which way they want to take this thing.


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Entered at break down off OH high. Late entry.



Price waited around for a while then broke. Under the conditions it was a mistake to tighten too much and get taken out at 10t. @Inletcap would not be pleased.



Total Reasonable Movement on the trade was -5t, +32t. Good 2R trade


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