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Price has broken higher overnight and seems to be heading for the 42.80 consolidation area. Bias is up for now and looking for support to enter a long. There are a couple of areas, one being an LVN at around 42.50 and the other being the overnight POC at around 42.34. If it breaks these areas there is strong support at 42.10.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
The long term trend is still up. The medium term trend is down with the market having made a lower high in the overnight. Price currently sits at a swing established during the RTH yesterday. If it holds below this swing I will be looking for it to head towards yesterday's open at 42.35. If it bounces here, it will probably try to reach yesterday's RTH high.
Price touched the RTH swing high from 8/4 in overnight trading and bounced to the current level. There is still an RTH gap to be filled from 8/5. I am having difficulty determining where the market most likely wants to go at this point so I will wait until there is more clear direction. There are a couple of options marked. Inventory report today as well.
Long term trend is down but mid term is up. On the RTH chart there are two POC's that boarder current price: one above at 41.92 and one below at 41.52. I'll use these as backstops to determine the short term bias at any given time.
Combine blown last week. Too much stupid trading, too many losses. The reality is that I was beginning to covet the combine after 78 trading days hovering around break even. After taking some heavy losses a couple days in a row I started to gamble a bit to get back to level. Of course that never works.
I will be starting a new combine Monday, instituting a few changes. First, I will be trading the max of three contracts. I'll either pass it quick or blow it out quick, no more fiddle farting around. At an average of 10 ticks risk per contract I will have around five net losses of wiggle room. This will require some good fortune and good timing to get through.
It will also require patience. I'll need to wait for the best set ups. No more marginal trades. Hopefully by trading more contracts I will be more willing to sit still knowing that catching a good trade will mean larger profits.
Lastly, with rare exceptions I will only trade until 9:00am PST. No more wasting my life on the last 2 1/2 hours of the market. I should be able to accomplish everything I need to in the first three hours.
This business is hard. For those who are successful I congratulate you. I've proved I can be a break even trader, but not a profitable trader. I have put in thousands of hours. Quite frankly I am not sure I have what it takes, but I'm not ready to call it quits. Trading will now be confined to a smaller portion of my time. It will be just something I do in the early morning and for extra income. Maybe this will take some pressure off.
Really sorry that you blew your combine and I hope my sharing what I see is not going to be taken as a kick in the nuts as that's not my intention. In fact, I'm concerned you are going to through away money as your stated focus is on passing the combine vs trading for profit- if you pass and get funded, then what?
I've read back a few pages on your thread and essentially compared your combine report card to your daily posts. The one thing I keep asking is why you are doing so much analysis ( it's good analysis BTW) and then jumping out of your trade as soon as it just starts to work? Evidence of this is on the report card- your trades are 2 lots and your daily avg win or loss is about $100- dude, that's 5 ticks!!!! Your analysis gives you some great trades, you need to go with them and let them work... If you want to be a scalper, then be a scalper and trade a lot more frequently than you are trading for those ticks but the analysis and posts I've read say otherwise.
Here's what I see- you are a break even trader because you have good analysis but you are not reaching the level of success you want to see because YOU are holding yourself back. Believe in your findings and explore something different once you are in a trade. Your first good win will only come if you let it; Once that happens you just keep duplicating that behavior until its second nature. You can do this the right way- it's not just about passing the combine, getting funded and then being break even- it's about getting paid a rediculous amount of money for your efforts! I'm/We're on your side and hanging around watching- I don't want to get up in your business but if I can help in any way, please don't hesitate to ask. Again, my attempt here is to be motivational as I believe you can do this!!!!
Inletcap, thank you for taking interest and your kind words. I have been a follower and admirer of your commentary and have attempted to adapt some of your ideas into my trading, changing from confirmation risk to information risk trading being the most significant .
Top Step counts each direction as a contract traded, so a round trip trade with one contract will show as two contracts traded on the report. Therefore, most of my trades have been one contract trades with around 10 ticks of risk.
Because I am only trading one contract I will often take profit at 1R because this seems like a logical place to shed some contracts in a multiple contract trade, which I anticipate doing in the future. Anyway, as convoluted as that might sound, that's why I often jump out at 10 ticks. I figure if I cant get to 1R more than 50% of the time something is wrong with my trade picker.
I would welcome any feedback you have but I know you have your own things to worry about. I'll start showing every trade as close to real time as possible. If you see any tendencies please feel free to comment.
Thanks again for reaching out, and thanks for being so transparent with your trading methods.
Fast start to the morning. Opened the platform to a quick sell off from a failed break out of the overnight highs and decided to take a short on a retest of the POC from the sell off and the VWAP. It was my first three contract trade in the new combine. Thankfully it worked out for a 2R trade.
The long term trend remains up so initially I will be looking for signs of continuation. Price has come a long way retesting much of the down move from May. It has entered an area of previous congestion from July. A break below 46.04 will signal a possible mid term change and to start looking short.
Update, end of day. Price bounced off the second HVN from yesterday
Entered on retrace to ORH. Reached 1R, moved to BE and was taken out. TRM -1, +11
Update: after exiting the trade, price ended up going -8 ticks against my original entry then +20 ticks in favor, so technically it was a 2R trade. I am satisfied with exiting at BE after reaching 1R because it could have easily failed back down through the ORH.
