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Bias is bullish.
Strong buying into the close and continuing overnight.
Above is the point of control at 47.94 from Friday. Will reevaluate the bias if there is a larger reaction from there. Significant levels mapped out.
Longs at discount for now.
Look for building volume clusters to trade off of.
I was sort of caught off guard by the action this morning. Felt price was going to reach the POC of Friday before turning down. Took two longs for +9t total. Continued looking for longs but price is not respecting any support levels. Short was the play but pull backs are tiny. Hard to trade these straight moves unless you've entered from far above. Thankfully traded in sim from the early wins. Have not done well as they have all been longs.
Currently at the RTH high from yesterday. Could get a tradable bounce.
Long term sentiment is bullish, Mid term in neutral, short term changes constantly. On the macro picture, I think price will have more movement to the upside to test higher levels:
In the immediate term, price is in the middle of a 55 tick range. I'll either look to trade the edges of the range or wait for a strong indication of a move in either direction and take a pull back of an impulse move. The inventory report will change things. Sitting on hands for now:
Update, end of day: the blueprint was pretty accurate today on the macro and immediate hypos. The red hypo played out nicely today. Though the low at 48.01 happened during the news, there were plenty of opportunities to make good money on the way up the 50.00.
Two trades both shorts off resistance levels at the close. Did not have the conviction to take other opportunities earlier in the day, but I'm getting there.
Trade 1: reversal attempt off the RTH POC of 6/23. Price wanted to overshoot so I got out at BE
Trade 2: same trade but this time price hit the nice round number of 50.00, filled a bunch of contracts then quickly reversed. On the reversal the large orders on the offer that were previously higher immediately backfilled in the wake of price, indicating they were desperate to get filled before price went lower. The entry was on a small pull back on the impulse.
After retesting most of the Brexit breakdown yesterday and loading the bus, it's time to take it back down. Long term, mid term and short term bias is down to start the day.
To the upside: there are clusters of heavily traded areas starting from 48.92 up to 48.99, and then again at Yesterday's RTH POC and an overnight swing low.
To the downside: there is some minor support around the 48.73 area then more major support at the 48.32 area. I believe price will be going after this area at the very least.
I will be trading from the short side until further developments.
Update, end of day: the levels played out pretty well again today. Price bounced around from node to node
The red hypo played out with price pushing down a little farther than anticipated before bouncing up to yesterday's POC and retracing 60 ticks or so.
2 combine trades for 0t and 10t. I took both trades according to my morning blueprint, so I am pleased that I was able to follow the plan. Tried to get into the sell off late in the day by trailing a limit order but price never retraced far enough to get a fill.
trade 1, short, 0t: price looked weak, entered on a retrace of an impulse continuation move. Was expecting price to move lower at the open which it eventually did but the chop was too much for me. Entering on small pullbacks instead of breakouts is enabling me to get out many times unscathed when the trade doesn't appear to be working.
trade 2, short, +10t: faded yesterday's RTH POC. Proud of this trade since it was planned well in advance, executed perfectly and it worked (not that it will every time). Price eventually ran 57 ticks in my favor.
Bias is neutral. Price has formed a box sitting on top of the 6/24 RTH POC and the RTH high of 6/28.
The choice this morning is to either trade the edges of the box or wait for price to break out of the box before considering a trade. As usual look for longs at discount and shorts at premium.
Update, end of day: reaction at predetermined S/R...
Scenario blue played out today after the early range bottom held...
Lot’s of churning going on right now. Taking many trades and hovering around break even. 50 trading days in the combine and still slightly underwater.
June was a tale of two halves. The first two weeks were business as usual, entering trades the way I have been for the past year and a half, with an occasional “new” tactic thrown in. The result was the usual lackluster 50/50 trades to 1R, with an anemic number of trades going beyond. Too many buys at premium and sells at discount.
For the past two weeks I changed tactics completely and attempted to do the opposite: sell at premium and buy at discount. While the number of trades making 1R was still around even odds, there were far more trade ideas that reached +2R and beyond. Two weeks of trading is a not enough time to make definitive judgement but the trend is in the right direction.
The stats for the past two weeks are as follows:
TST Combine trades: 31
Reached +1R: 16 (52%)
Reached +2R while moving stop to BE after +1R: 7 (22%)
Reached +2R without touching initial stop: 3 (9.6%)
Total reaching +2R: 10 (32%)
While 32% reaching +2R is still not great, it’s a far cry better than before the changes. The reason for the improvement is obvious, getting into trades sooner allows for more overall favorable movement. Of course the key to getting in sooner is to pick good S/R levels. I am not sure I could have done this successfully in the past (still needs to be proven over the long haul), but I have tools now that I didn’t have in the past that are helping to find key levels. Lots of work to be done still.
Perhaps the more important stats are the following:
-Of the 15 trades that failed to reach 1R, I was able to exit 11 at or near BE, taking only 4 losses.
-Of the 16 trades that successfully reached 1R, I only exited 3 without a profit, making money on 13 and taking no losses.
These facts seem to hold the key. For a long time I was skeptical that I could make money if only 50% of my trades reached 1R. With the new tactics I have noticed that price spends more time in my favor, even if it’s only a few ticks. This allows for early exits at BE when things aren’t going as planned.
All in all I am pleased with these initial results, but hesitant to get too excited. More work yet to be done.
